It predicts that these heavy precipitation events will intensify and become more frequent in most regions as the world continues to warm. Globally, there will be 7% more extreme weather for every 1° Celsius of global warming.
Even under the best-case scenario of reduced greenhouse gas emission, global average temperature is set to exceed 1.5°C by the turn of the century. The Himalaya will get hotter faster than other parts of the world, and could warm by 1.8-2.2°C.
The main conclusions of this IPCC report were leaked to AFP in June, and predicts global surface temperatures increasing until at least the mid-century even under the best scenario. The warming will ‘exceed 2°C during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades’.
The 2015 Paris Agreement recommended capping global warming at ‘well below 2°C’ above pre-industrial levels, and to 1.5°C in the next 30 years by reducing emissions. However, the increase is already at 1.2°C Celsius, and on track to exceed 2°C.
This will lead to mass species extinction as ecosystems collapse, more widespread diseases, heatwaves making parts of the world unfit for human habitation, cities and small island nations at risk of being submerged by sea level rise.
For Nepal, even a 1.5°C rise in global temperature will mean heavy precipitation and associated flooding of the kind the country saw in 2018 and this year. At 2°C increase, the floods, heat waves and droughts will be even deadlier.
The other impact on Nepal will be a Himalayan meltdown, as the mountains thaw with rising temperatures.
‘Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s,’ the report states. ‘…The global nature of glacier retreat, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously, since the 1950s, is unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years.’