In July this year, Nepali atmospheric scientist Maheswar Rupakheti was elected to the 34-member bureau of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the first election of a scientist from Nepal in the panel’s 35-year history. The <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/climate/what-is-the-ipcc/">IPCC</a> is a scientific body created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme, with the objective of informing governments about the latest climate science and the impacts that climate change will bring in the coming decades. The IPCC bureau is the panel’s elected executive body, led by a chair and three vice-chairs. Under the bureau, there are three working groups: Working Group I looks at the physics of climate change; Working Group II focuses on impacts of and adaptation to climate change; while Working Group III is dedicated to climate change mitigation. The three working groups have two co-chairs each, as well as seven or eight vice-chairs. Rupakheti, who has extensive experience in atmospheric and climate science research, was selected to be a vice-chair of Working Group I, a position for which he had been <a href="https://apps.ipcc.ch/fp/_readcv.php?t=LETTER_bb886098-785a-40bd-ae85-6017e7925609.pdf">nominated</a> by the Government of Nepal in June. Despite mandated representation from different regions across the globe, diversity in the IPCC bureau has been <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/09/05/ipcc-s-lack-of-geographically-diverse-expertise-may-be-stymieing-climate-efforts-pub-90469">a concern</a> since the panel’s inception in 1988. To help address the issue, in 2015 the panel <a href="https://archive.ipcc.ch/organization/organization_structure.shtml">increased the size of the bureau</a> from 31 to 34, to include two additional members from Africa and one from Asia. But the bureau’s makeup still does not reflect the size of the regions it represents: Europe has been allocated eight members, while Asia has six and Africa seven, despite populations six times and 1.6 times the size of Europe’s, respectively. Authors from the global south are also poorly represented in reports produced by the IPCC. <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-the-diversity-of-ipcc-authors-has-changed-over-three-decades/">Analysis</a> by Carbon Brief found that only 11% of authors in the first IPCC Assessment Report, released in 1990, were from the global south; and that this figure stood at 38% for the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report in 2021. Ramesh Bhushal of The Third Pole spoke with Maheswar Rupakheti about engagement of the global south scientific community in the work of the IPCC. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity. The Third Pole: In your view, what prevents scientists from the global south participating in the IPCC? Maheswar Rupakheti: There are multiple factors. As an individual scientist, you need to have the capacity to persuade the political leadership in your country to nominate you for the election [to the IPCC bureau]. Often scientists lack the required communication with policymakers and state actors. It’s not an easy process to get nominated in many developing countries. For example, in Nepal you need to get approval from the Ministry of Forest and Environment, and then the Council of Ministers before sending the nomination to the IPCC Secretariat. Just because you are a good scientist doesn’t mean you will make it to the bureau. Your country must make a significant political and diplomatic effort to gain votes. So, if a candidate’s country doesn’t have enough influence to get votes from other member countries, it’s hard to get elected. Secondly, scientists across the globe get their representation at the IPCC by contributing their content, but the representation of content from the global south is weak as some regions are more researched than others. North America and Europe have way more research on climate change compared to regions like South Asia, Southeast Asia or Africa. The Arctic is better researched than the Himalayas. Less content means less representation of scientists in assessment reports. What difference do you think your presence in a leading role could make to least developed countries like Nepal in the IPCC processes? I could play my part to emphasise issues and regions that are less represented in the reports. I am an atmospheric scientist with an interest in how air pollutants interact in a changing climate and what role they play. Carbon dioxide and its relation to temperature rise is straightforward, but we don’t know much about how aerosol particles play a role in temperature regimes, as some aerosol particles like black carbon increase warming, and others have cooling effects. Some aerosol particles absorb light and others reflect it. Short-lived pollutants got space for the first time in IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, launched in 2021. We need more chemical science to be included in the next report. Secondly, until now only English literature has been considered for review in the assessment reports. But there is a wealth of information and knowledge on other platforms and in other languages. There is a realisation at the IPCC that we need to include them, but we haven’t figured out how yet. I am hopeful that the next report will find a way to start to include other forms of knowledge as well. In fact, we discussed it in the very first meeting of the bureau, held recently. And, despite being at the forefront of [climate change] impacts, the Himalayas haven’t received the attention they need globally. My efforts would be to have more representation of knowledge from the region.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231111141148_1b98585a1f32fdd7cc703712bdb8da542173daa8d79d0895f27e893c27931931.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20231111141148_1b98585a1f32fdd7cc703712bdb8da542173daa8d79d0895f27e893c27931931" data-rendition-name="original" width="2560" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="IPCC"> <figcaption>Glaciologists monitoring changes at the Gepang Gath glacier in Himachal Pradesh, northern India (Image: Rakesh Rao / Climate Visuals Countdown)</figcaption> </figure>  The IPCC is mandated to consolidate and analyse research from across the globe. But critics say that while representation of scientists from the global south has increased in the past few years, there hasn’t been a corresponding increase in support for scientific studies in the global south, which could lead to a lack of data to feed into reports. How would you characterise the state of climate research in the global south, especially in the Himalayas? The global south in general is less researched. The Himalaya is one of the least researched regions in the world, and IPCC’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar4/">Fourth Assessment Report</a>, released in 2007, had mentioned it as a black spot – a region with inadequate data to assess climatic impacts. In the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar5/">Fifth Assessment Report</a> [in 2014], it didn’t repeat the same word but still the situation hadn’t improved. In [the IPCC’s] <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">Sixth Assessment Report</a>, the situation has improved, but still the [Himalaya] region doesn’t have the research needed to do rigorous analysis. Climate change is vast, and it impacts every sector. However, resources are limited. More resources should be targeted on research works as the global south is bit heavy with resources on advocacy [compared to that spent on research]. If done with solid scientific evidence, advocacy will have more impact. The Himalayan region is very divided politically, which has in some ways hindered cross-border collaboration in the scientific study of climate change. How do you think the scientific community in the region can help to bridge information gaps and encourage cross-border collaboration?&nbsp; In general, all regions are politically divided, but the problem with the Himalayan region is that there is more mistrust among governments to collaborate in scientific research. Most of the science in the region has been done by actors outside governments, where individual scientists or organisations have collaborated to do science. The scientific community should keep this going and provide some crucial information from their research to the policymakers to help them make better decisions. But also, as a community we should play a role to push governments for more scientific collaboration between countries, as we share several river basins. How could governments in the Himalaya work with the scientific community to amplify South Asian voices at the global level, based on solid scientific evidence? I think forming a Himalayan Council like the <a href="https://arctic-council.org/">Arctic Council</a> could be a starting point. The Council could prepare a framework under which cooperation and collaboration can be fostered. A scientific body under the council could provide a platform for all scientists to collaborate. I don’t foresee this kind of collaboration in the immediate future. There has been a realisation [of the need for such a body] at some levels both in politics and governments, [but] it demands a leadership and vision to take it forward. We don’t have a choice now. Science could be the best way to start collaboration, as it would benefit all in the region. There is no loser in this effort. This version of the piece was <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/climate/interview-ipcc-vice-chair-nepal-give-himalayas-attention-they-deserve/">originally published on The Third Pole</a> under the Creative Commons license, and was written by Ramesh Bhushal, Nepal Editor at The Third Pole.

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IPCC vice-chair vows to give Himalayas attention they deserve

<figure><img width="2500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141152/636d02c29c7e80680e0a369ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden address the 76th UN General Assembly on 21 September. Photos: XINHUA</figcaption></figure>The United Nations General Assembly is convening just six weeks ahead of the UN’s <a href="https://ukcop26.org/?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsmi=161546698&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz--0Nb0aCJfKbuXurhC9tp5Brnlsgfm6CQiM_TgmpgNe1suEm2nGWaaFivokaKzWAHEc_14PGQYlPcD6oz-uLA7srNPfvw&amp;utm_content=161546698&amp;utm_source=hs_email">COP26 climate conference</a> in Glasgow, and follows a stark warning from the United Nations last week that the voluntary Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) by countries is not at all enough to stop cataclysmic climate collapse.
The UN collated the pledges by the world’s 191 countries and projected that the earth’s surface would be 2.7 Celsius hotter by 2100. This warning is even starker <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/un-climate-report-declares-planetary-emergency/">than the report to governments</a> by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last month that laid out a best-case scenario in which despite reduced greenhouse gas emissions, global average temperature was still set to exceed 1.5°C by the turn of the century.
This means countries must not only have more ambitious targets in their NDCs, but richer countries must do more, and giants like India and China have to wean themselves away faster from fossil fuels. What they have committed to so far is just not enough.
Some of this is the subject of a meeting of 40 world leaders in New York this week co-chaired by UN Secretary General António Guterres and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson ahead of the Glasgow Climate Summit. Guterres told the General Assembly that the world needed to reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 to stabilise the climate. On Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged that China would stop building more coal-fired power plants abroad, the US President Joe Biden promised $11 billion to help developing countries adapt to the climate crisis.
Nepal, being one of the most vulnerable countries in world to a hotter world, the tenor of the discussion in New York this week will literally determine our future. Not only are our mountains melting in front of our eyes, but erratic weather means more floods, landslides and droughts that have dried up springs. Scientists have said that t<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-biden-presidency-climate-and-the-himalaya/">he Himalaya</a> will get hotter faster than other parts of the world, and could warm by 1.8-2.2°C by the turn of the century.
Adapting to a hotter Himalaya will need money for climate resilient agriculture, lowering flood risk of glacial lakes, and help to transition to renewable energy. But when Nepal’s delegate at the General Assembly gets up to speak in New York next week to ask for more pledges for adaptation, it will carry very little moral authority if the government back home is backtracking on its own NDC commitments.
And that is what is happening. After taking one step forward with tax rebates on electric cars in this year’s budget, the government of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has taken two steps back. This week, it slashed taxes on the import of 10 or more diesel buses by new luxury hotels to 1%. It cut by half the duty on petrol motorcycle assembly in Nepal.
The Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) is so bloated with cash that it gets from taxing petroleum that it is investing in high rise office blocks in Kathmandu, putting up more petroleum storage facilities and planning new pipelines. The government still has pipe dreams about building a mega-airport in Nijgad. They just don’t get it.  
What Nepal should have done is slash taxes not just on battery cars, but also on electric public transport. At the moment the tax for electric or diesel buses is the same. At this rate, there is no way Nepal is going to meet its commitment to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and its commitment to net-zero by 2050.
In fact, the Ministry of Environment’s submission to the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) last month revealed that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint/">Nepal’s carbon footprint had doubled</a> in the past 10 years to 28,166 gigagrams of carbon dioxide (Gg CO2) annually.
Ironically, at a time when the government seems to be actively promoting diesel buses to benefit a few of the richest hotel owners in the country, and has done nothing to reduce the tax on electric buses, its NDC pledges to strengthen public transport and turn 90% of all vehicles electric by 2030.
The NDC document says that Nepal will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 28% by 2030 – that is laughably unlikely given the current policies in place. One arm of the government has no idea what the other is doing.
All this is critical not just because Nepal needs to do its bit to reduce its carbon emissions and to slash its ballooning petroleum import bill, but also so that the country can secure funds from the UNFCCC for adaptation measures.  
In fact, consistent delays in completing and submitting these reports to the UN has meant that much of the resources Nepal could have mobilised for climate action have lapsed.

Nepal needs to get its climate act together

<img width="2710" height="904" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfdb99c7e80680e0a0bfejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><ul><li> The present concentration of carbon dioxide in earth’s atmosphere is the highest in 2 million years. </li><li>The average atmospheric temperature in the decade 2011-2020 is 1.1oCelsius warmer than 1850-1900. </li><li>The average temperature will reach 1.5o Celsius earlier than the timeline envisioned by the 2015 Paris accord.</li><li>Human actions are the reasons for this change. </li><li>It is real, here and everywhere on planet Earth.</li><li>This new normal will make weather events more erratic, abrupt and extreme. </li><li>Unexpected climate events can occur simultaneously.</li></ul>That in a nutshell are the main findings of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I sixth assessment report (AR6) released on 9 August. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/un-climate-report-declares-planetary-emergency/">The report</a> is a meta-study of 140,000 scientific papers reviewed by 234 experts. It confirms what scientists and analysts have been saying for decades about rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) on our planet’s atmosphere. Everywhere across planet Earth, we are observing more extreme rainfall, severe floods, longer droughts, more intense hurricanes and cyclones, worse forest fire, and intense heat waves. This year, unprecedented floods ravaged China, India, Western Europe, and many other places. Northwestern US, Canada and Siberia are still being ravaged by record-breaking heat waves forest fires. Rise in average temperatures, together with increased humidity, will continue to increase the heat problem in many regions of the world, including the densely populated regions of South Asia. In this year’s monsoon, Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1629703412414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH16ORGcNu5m6KywQUlaVEMhCWbTg">trans-Himalayan districts of Manang</a> and Mustang that historically receive little rain and snowfall -- experienced intense rainfall. The upper watersheds of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1629703412414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHI_l7pa69moXngJYcSvTM--zjF3w">Melamchi River</a> faced catastrophic debris floods bringing major devastation to the region. Preliminary reviews show that these weather events were more severe, unlike in the past, and could be attributed to localised changes in temperature and precipitation brought about by climate change. Scientific studies must examine these new local dynamics and their implications on lives, livelihoods and development.  Nepal and Bangladesh are both countries at high risk from the impact of climate change. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1629703412414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFkm-_x0KPqpjsqkC1oeYsiwAuSJA">Nepal has seen extreme weather events</a> unleashing landslides, debris flows, glacial melting and have sparked <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1629703412414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFQgJxLI-G12avQb8JPRlpXhISkTg">extensive wildfires</a>. Bangladesh, situated in the Ganga-Bramhaputra delta that drains the Himalaya is at risk from increased flooding, and sea level rise as a result of global warming.The AR6 reiterates that the burning of fossil fuel releases GHGs, causes climate change, which results in more frequent <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">extreme weather-related events</a>. It adds that some climate impacts may be irreversible. Yet, GHG emissions continue unabated, and human civilisation is becoming more carbon intensive. This is happening despite the commitment of nation states to meet the 2015 Paris accord’s goals of keeping average temperature rise to 1.5o and 2o above the pre-industrial average.  <img width="1988" height="1024" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfdbc9c7e80680e0a0bffjpeg.jpg" alt="">Why are GHGs being emitted? It is not because of the lack of evidence about the sources of GHGs, increasing emission levels, or their harmful impact. For 250 years, fossil fuels have propelled industrialisation with their high energy density. The technology to extract, store, transport and distribute fossil fuels is strongly entrenched.  The backbone of modern economies such as transportation, manufacturing of steel, pig iron, ammonia, cement, plastic, rubber and other chemicals are dependent on use of fossil fuel as feedstock or fuel. Widespread government subsidies ($5.2 trillion in 2017 according to the IMF) continue to support fossil fuels. With such massive inertia in our energy system, how can transformative change be achieved? Over the past few years, improvements in technology like wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries have expanded the share of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/an-energy-windfall-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">renewable energy</a> in modern energy grids. More renewable energy can help make industrial processes less carbon intensive. Increased penetration of electrical vehicles can help decarbonize transportation if energy is supplied by renewable sources.  De-coupling of GDP and energy consumption and efficiency in energy use can mitigate GHG emissions, but such options are limited to mostly developed countries. Carbon dioxide capture and storage technology need much more research for scaling. Conservation and expanded<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> forest cover</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-search/?q=wind+turbines" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sustainable agriculture</a>, solid waste management, water conservation, managing of forest fire, etc. are other measures, but each has its own social and political challenges. Overall these structural constraints limit immediate ‘transition’ of the global energy system to a less carbon-intensive one.  While the US and other developed western countries share the responsibility of highest cumulative emission historically, China and India have become first and third largest annual emitters of GHGs respectively. Those two countries and developed countries must make strong national commitments to curb emission.  Other developing countries must also begin transitioning to a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/build-back-greener/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">greener future</a>, with technology, knowledge and financial support from developed countries and investors for mitigation and adaptation committed under the Paris Agreement. Marginal and low-income families will need social support so that they can stay resilient in face of more climate-induced disasters. Just transition and climate justice must be part of conversations for economists and financiers.  The kind of climate action needed for the decarbonisation of the global energy system must begin today. Governments making strict commitments to allocate a percent of the annual GDP for transiting to clean energy and supportive adaptation actions can be good starting points.  At the same time, private investors with resources that overshadow government’s allocation must contribute to the decarbonisation process while industries expedite transition to clean energy uses. At international level, GHG reduction compliance must be monitored carefully with periodic assessments.  <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-climate-threat-multiplier/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-climate-threat-multiplier/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1629703412415000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHGw1DJcFmfLFvyW-_NhqqN-vA3zQ">Ajaya Dixit</a> is Senior Advisor of Kathmandu-based <a href="http://isetnepal.org.np/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://isetnepal.org.np/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1629703412415000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGa9XKoQx6FIEj_sceDEgrvl_WZgg">ISET Nepal. </a> Monirul Q Mirza is an Adjunct Professor at University of Toronto Scarborough and an IPCC author.

Decarbonisation needs to begin today

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc6b9c7e80680e0a0b8ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2006" height="1332"/><figcaption>Paddy and maize fields in Kavre. A heavier than usual monsoon this year brought destructive floods, but was a boon to farmers. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>As if the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/first-drought-then-downpour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">drought</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfire</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flood disasters</a> this year were not bad enough, scientists have warned that unless the world reduces emissions of greenhouse gases drastically, these disasters will get much worse.Hundreds of scientists spent the past two years drafting a 4,000 page <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">report for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),</a> but even as they did so, news of climate calamities were coming in thick and fast: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heat waves</a>, continental-scale wildfires, flash-floods, biodiversity loss.A summary of the report for world governments was released on Monday, three months before world leaders meet in Glasgow in November for a Climate Summit called COP26 (Conference of Parties 26).The highly technical Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the IPCC on the science behind climate change has forecasts that will directly affect Nepal and the Himalaya. It also has pointers on what must be done urgently to reduce its impact.The IPCC report contains the most direct correlation scientists have drawn between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate change and extreme weather</a> around the world.‘The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events … and droughts have increased since the 1950s,’ the report states with ‘high confidence’, adding that human-induced climate change is likely the main driver.It adds categorically: ‘Increases in monsoon precipitation since the 1980s have resulted from rising GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations … Monsoon precipitation is projected to increase in the mid- to long term on a global scale, particularly over South and Southeast Asia.’<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc6e9c7e80680e0a0b8bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1988" height="1024"><figcaption>Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>It predicts that these heavy precipitation events will intensify and become more frequent in most regions as the world continues to warm. Globally, there will be 7% more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">extreme weather</a> for every 1° Celsius of global warming.Even under the best-case scenario of reduced greenhouse gas emission, global average temperature is set to exceed 1.5°C by the turn of the century. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-biden-presidency-climate-and-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Himalaya</a> will get hotter faster than other parts of the world, and could warm by 1.8-2.2°C.The main conclusions of this IPCC report were leaked to AFP in June, and predicts global surface temperatures increasing until at least the mid-century even under the best scenario. The warming will ‘exceed 2°C during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades’.The 2015 Paris Agreement recommended capping global warming at ‘well below 2°C’ above pre-industrial levels, and to 1.5°C in the next 30 years by reducing emissions. However, the increase is already at 1.2°C Celsius, and on track to exceed 2°C.This will lead to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mass species extinction as ecosystems collapse</a>, more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">widespread diseases</a>, heatwaves making parts of the world unfit for human habitation, cities and small island nations at risk of being submerged by sea level rise.For Nepal, even a 1.5°C rise in global temperature will mean <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/manpower-and-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heavy precipitation and associated flooding</a> of the kind the country saw in 2018 and this year. At 2°C increase, the floods, heat waves and droughts  will be even deadlier.The other impact on Nepal will be a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalayan meltdown</a>, as the mountains thaw with rising temperatures.‘Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s,’ the report states. ‘…The global nature of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacier retreat</a>, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously, since the 1950s, is unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years.’<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc719c7e80680e0a0b8cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="546"><figcaption>Future annual emissions of CO₂ under the five scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>This is even truer for the Himalaya because of its proximity to the equator. Scientists say it is already warming up to 0.3-0.7°C faster than the global average due to a phenomenon called ‘Elevation Dependent Warming’. But at the current trajectory, the mountains may see warming of up to 5.7°C during this century. In such a scenario, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalaya will lose two-thirds of permanent ice</a>, and most glaciers will have melted.It predicts that even if greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mountain and polar glaciers will continue melting</a> for decades or centuries. This will impact not just Nepal but about 1 billion people living downstream from the Himalaya in China, India, Bangladesh and southeast Asia.‘Human influence has likely increased the chance of compound extreme events since the 1950s, increases in the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on the global scale, fire weather in some regions of all inhabited continents, and compound flooding in some locations,’ the says the IPCC report, almost describing the winter drought, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/weve-seen-fire-and-weve-seen-rain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfires and floods that have ravaged Nepal</a> in the past 8 months.The main cause of all this warming is that in 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years. Global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 will be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C compared to pre-industrial levels even if emissions are controlled in the next 30 years.The IPCC report summary says that the only solution is for world governments to immediately agree on reaching net zero anthropogenic CO2 emissions to stabilise human-induced <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global temperature increase</a>.If the biggest carbon emitters like India and China meet cut back targets, under the most optimistic scenario global average temperature would stabilise at below 1.5°C toward the end of the 21st century after overheating by 0.1°C. But experts do not sound very optimistic about this happening.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc749c7e80680e0a0b8djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2006" height="986"><figcaption>Projected global temperature rise under the intermediate, high and very high GHG emission scenarios considered. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure><a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s greenhouse gas emission</a> is negligible, but it has doubled in the past seven years according to a mandatory report filed by the Ministry of Environment with the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Most of this is because the volume of petroleum imports from India has doubled in the past 10 years to meet the demand of transportation, expansion of cement and other industries.Last year, Nepal had submitted its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to meet <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">zero emission by 2050</a>. Switching to electric public transport and battery vehicles to reduce the petroleum import bill by just 10% would save Rs21 billion a year. This will also clean up the air, dirty air killed 41,000 people in Nepal in 2019.It is a sign of just how desperate the situation is that the IPCC scientists say in their report that the only hope for life on the planet may be a major volcanic eruption this century that would reduce global surface temperature because the sun will be blocked out for 2-3 years.The reports says rather phlegmatically: ‘If such an eruption occurs, this would therefore temporarily and partially mask human-caused climate change.’

UN climate report declares planetary emergency

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141124/636cfbd49c7e80680e0a0b54jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The muddy waters of the Indrawati bringing down the Melamchi flood at left merging with the Bhote Kosi at Dolalghat on Monday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Scientists are loath to link individual weather events with climate change. But there is a growing consensus among climate researchers that warmer ocean and atmospheric temperatures have intensified storms.Every year for the past few years, the planet has broken its own temperature records. There are, as we speak, continental scale wildfires sweeping across Siberia, North America, Turkey and record floods recently ravaged parts of Europe.In Nepal, too, prolonged winter drought unleashed widespread wildfires. When the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rains arrived</a>, they struck with unusual ferocity in the Himalayan rain shadow. Read also: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-plan-for-plenty-and-scarcity-of-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal needs to plan for plenty and scarcity of water</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manang saw fires</a> burn continuously for three months this winter. Monsoon cloudbursts then hit slopes recently scorched, reducing the soil’s absorptive capacity. The runoff fed into the Marsyangdi system, washing away settlements and infrastructure.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-the-deluge-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">In Sindhupalchok</a>, the combination of the destabilising effect of the 2015 earthquake, the wildfires combined with record-breaking precipitation turned the watershed into mud paste.The latest aerial clips of the upper <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Melamchi valley</a> show a massive collapse of glacio-fluvial and lake deposits by extremely heavy precipitation on 15-16 June.Nepal now has a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority</a> (NDRRMA) to carry out hazard mapping, recommend settlement zoning, infrastructure planning and provide early warning. But a nationwide warning of ‘heavier than usual precipitation’ that it issued in June was of little use — more accurate, localised forecasting is needed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1W2dlEu9egY&amp;t=5sHimalayan disasters pre-date the climate crisis, and they are all interrelated. Earthquakes unleash landslides that block rivers, which burst, releasing catastrophic floods. Avalanches bulldoze glaciers into populated valleys. The danger of these calamities are now compounded by the climate crisis and unwise human intervention.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Melamchi flood</a> has added more uncertainty to the project that was supposed to start supplying drinking water this year to Kathmandu Valley through a 26.5km tunnel. Although the tunnel itself appears to have been saved, the headwork structures are under metres of mud and the access roads have been washed away. The fragile slopes upstream are still crumbling into the river, and this week’s heavy rains unleashed more floods adding to the damage from June. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-plan-for-plenty-and-scarcity-of-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The project</a> that has already cost $700 million is sure to cost even more, and will be delayed further. There was also major damage in June in a dozen hydropower projects in Lamjung and Kaski. The 465MW Upper Tama Kosi project was saved only because a landslide dammed river in China in June did not burst. If it had, a project that will generate one-third of Nepal’s electricity demand would have been destroyed even before its inauguration.The good news is that the news could have been much worse. The bad news is that these geo-ecological dangers in Nepal are sure to get worse because of climate change and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">poorly engineered road-building</a>, rampant river mining, haphazard quarrying, etc. <figure><img width="2360" height="1562" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141124/636cfbd89c7e80680e0a0b55jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The deep fluvial debris field in the upper reaches of Melamchi Khola that is being continuously washed down by heavy rains since June. Photos: NDRRMA</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="2580" height="1610" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141124/636cfbdb9c7e80680e0a0b56jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The headworks of the Melamchi Water Supply Project showing destroyed infrastructure and buildings half-buried in mud.</figcaption></figure>Last month, a report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  (IPCC) being prepared for the Climate Summit in Glasgow in November was leaked to the press. It forecast that there will be an increased impact of the climate crisis on melting ice and extreme weather as well as on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">biodiversity loss</a>, unsurvivable <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heat waves</a> and ecosystem collapse. The 2015 Paris Agreement suggested that global average temperatures have to be limited to only 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the next 30 years by reducing carbon emissions. It is already at 1.2 Celsius, and on track to exceed 2 Celsius by 2050.Scientists say <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Himalaya will warm up to 0.3-0.7 Celsius faster</a> than the global average. This will mean that at present rates of atmospheric heating, our mountains will be losing up to two-thirds of their ice during this century. The climate emergency will add to all the other problems we in Nepal already face. It calls for strategic long-term planning to adapt to the socio-economic and environmental implications of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/weve-seen-fire-and-weve-seen-rain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a hotter Himalaya</a>. Nepal’s international partners have pledged $7.4 billion for a Green Recovery project to build back greener after the pandemic. Nepal needs to switch to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/e-vehicles-prepare-for-post-lockdown-boom/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">clean transport</a> not just to do our bit to reduce emissions, but also to reduce the growing petroleum import bill and save the economy. There is no time to waste debating whether this year’s floods were caused by climate change or not. Leave that to the scientists. Let us plan as if it is climate-related, act accordingly, and be prepared for the frightening consequences of a Himalayan meltdown.

A hotter Himalaya

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a57589c7e80680e0547d9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="834"/><figcaption>ARCTIC HIMALAYA: NASA satellite images of Imja Galcier near Mt Everest taken in 1962, 1975, 1983, 1989, 1992, 2000, 2006 and (above) in 2010.</figcaption></figure>Climate scientists are shocked at the melt rate of Arctic sea ice and the Greenland ice-cap this summer, but the alarm bells are ringing even louder in the Himalaya.The 4,000km Himalayan arc is dubbed ‘The Third Pole’ because it has the biggest ice mass after the earth’s north and south polar regions. After this year’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">record heat</a>, scientists say they may have to revise upwards predictions about how fast it is melting.Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32805&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate-health emergency,</a> Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32892&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tree-mendous,</a> Peter Gill“Nearly a third of Nepal’s area is above 5,000m and is technically the Arctic,” says economist and former Water Resources Minister Dipak Gyawali. “And it is reasonable to assume that what is happening in the Arctic is happening in our Himalayan Arctic.”<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Himalayan ice cover</a> is melting even faster than the poles because the mountains are situated astride the tropics. Gyawali warns it is not just about receding glaciers, but uncertainty about how climate change will <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2016/06/05/climactic-change-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">affect precipitation. </a>Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32877&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">It's a jungle out there,</a> Ajaya Dixit<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32887&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trees, politics and greed</a>, Mukesh Pokharel<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a575a9c7e80680e0547dajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="200">In a report earlier this year titled Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Climate Change, Sustainability and People, the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (<a href="http://www.icimod.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ICIMOD</a>) predicted the Himalaya would lose <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than one-third of its ice</a> by the end of the century, even if global average temperatures are capped at a 1.5oC increase above pre-industrial levels by 2050.But after this northern hemisphere summer, scientists warned the poles are already seeing levels of melting that was supposed to happen 30 years from now. If <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">current emission trends </a>continue and forests are cut at the present rate, the world could be hotter by up to 6.5oC by 2100 — melting two-thirds of Himalayan glaciers.Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32836&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mustn't blame everything on Climate Change,</a> Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32872&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting Kathmandu’s historic roofscape,</a> Anne FeenstraIn July, scientists from 60 countries met in Kathmandu to start working on the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a> 6th Assessment Report, due in 2022. Many of them admitted they may have to revise previous predictions because warming was happening faster than estimated.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTnxJKo97DI&amp;t=67sHimalayan peaks <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26112018/mount-everest-photos-world-highest-glacier-climate-change-khombu-icefall-climbing-route" target="_blank" rel="noopener">are already warming</a> up to 0.7oC faster than the global average because of a phenomenon called ‘elevation amplification’. Many of these projections will form part of an IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere, to be released on 23 September at the Climate Action Summit in New York during the UN General Assembly.Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32849&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tourism, aviation, and carbon,</a> Sanghamitra Subba<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32856&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Summit leads packed UN agenda,</a> Thalif DeenTo be sure, there are mountain regions nearer the equator with smaller ice mass that are melting even faster than the Himalaya. Andean glaciers in Bolivia have shrunk by half in the past 50 years, and Kilimanjaro has lost nearly all the ice on its summit in the past 100 years.<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ice-to-water-glacier-lake-outburts-himalayas-nepal,4197" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The loss of Himalayan ice </a>will have even more devastating consequences because there are about 1.3 billion people living downstream who depend on its rivers. Glaciers in the central and eastern Himalaya are already receding up to 30m per year.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a575b9c7e80680e0547dbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1100" height="894"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32868&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mosquitoes move up mountains as the earth warms,</a> Sonia AwaleClimate models show that spring flow in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers and their glacier-fed tributaries will rise till 2050 as the earth warms, but will start decreasing after that because there will be no more ice left to melt.Already, 60% of the water withdrawn for irrigation in the Indo-Gangetic Basin originates from snow and glacier melt — and the dry season flow of most Himalayan rivers is almost entirely snow-fed.“The mountains are the pulse of the planet, and that pulse is telling us that we are in a climate crisis,” warned <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-david-molden-icimod,3074" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ICIMOD Director General David Molden</a> at a Cryosphere and Society Forum on 28-29 August in Kathmandu. “The impact of climate change is felt hard in mountains, with temperatures rising faster than the plains, resulting in changing  ecosystem and agricultural patterns, changing rainfall and river flows.”For the first time, the forum this year brought together scientists and local communities from across the Himalaya so as to bridge the knowledge gap between researchers and local people. The idea was to see how <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> affects water supply, energy and food security for people in the Himalaya, and to offer solutions.“The impact on farming, tourism and hydropower is already being felt, the question is: what are we going to do about it?” said ICIMOD climate expert Arun Bhakta Shrestha.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a575e9c7e80680e0547dcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1100" height="825"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-yak-cheese-is-on-world-map/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yak cheese</a> factory in Nepal’s <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/langtang-before-after-earthquake-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Langtang Valley</a> has been in continuous operation for the past 55 years, but is facing an existential crisis because the glaciers that used to feed springs have dried up, and the weather has become erratic.“The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/langtang-destroyed-in-earthquake,2205" target="_blank" rel="noopener">avalanche in 2015</a> was a sudden disaster that hit with no  warning,” said cheesemaker Gyalpu Tamang, who lost relatives and friends, also herds of yaks. “But this climate crisis is a slow-moving disaster, and just as serious.”Attending the forum were farmers from Mustang. One of them, Narendra Lama, said villagers who depend on glacial melt to power water mills, irrigation, hydro-electricity and drinking water are already seeing the impact.Lama said: “Some of us have been forced to leave our villages because of the shortage of water.Springs have gone dry. We need scientists to tell us what to do.”This story is part of Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of more than 220 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.

Kunda Dixit

The Third Pole is warming faster than expected

<figure><img width="1800" height="996" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f6b9c7e80680e04fd07jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Dozers were required for the rescue of stranded locals and their motorbikes in Kavre during the floods caused by incessant rainfall across the country last week. Photo: RAJKUMAR PARAJULI/RSS</figcaption></figure>As nearly 300 scientists from 60 countries arrived in Kathmandu this week to attend the second meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to plan its next report, it is as if the rain god was waiting to remind them to be more forthright about the causal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link between climate change and weather</a>.After being <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-is-the-monsoon-this-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three weeks late</a>, unprecedented <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-2019-deluge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">monsoon squalls this year hit the country</a> with record precipitation in places. Floods and landslides killed nearly 80 people in Nepal, affecting millions of people downstream in India.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Weather warning for climate change</a>, Sonia Awale<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-is-the-monsoon-this-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Where is monsoon this year?</a>, Ajaya DixitIt must have been premonition that drove us to write <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an editorial in this space on 28 June</a> warning of just such a calamity. We said floods are an annual phenomenon in Nepal and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">farmers have learnt to live</a>, even benefit, from them. Floods are natural, we wrote, disasters are not.It is when we let the city expand into the floodplains of rivers, when <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Flood-on-the-border-Nepal-India,3915" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we construct ill-designed road embankments</a> or block natural drainage systems that floods claim lives. We saw ample evidence of that this week from the Kalanki and Nakkhu neighbourhoods of Kathmandu, where streams turned into raging brown torrents to reclaim their original courses.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Flood of recrimination</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Tarai learns from past floods</a>, Sewa BhattaraiAnd in Rautahat, which saw a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/nepal-flood-of-recrimination,3906" target="_blank" rel="noopener">repeat of the 2017 disaster</a> caused by flood control levees on the Bagmati narrowing the river, which was then dammed by a road embankment across the border in India. The fatalities were much less this time because the Indian embankment gave way, releasing the dammed water. But in the process, it inundated large parts of northern Bihar.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBPfkPQT0CEBad urban planning combined with climate-related weather extremes will surely lead to future catastrophes. The way to be prepared for them is to understand rivers, not block their paths to the sea. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/rivers-fighting-back,993" target="_blank" rel="noopener">river will always win</a>.This was a point driven home at the IPCC meeting in Kathmandu this week by co-chair of Working Group 2, Debra Roberts of South Africa. She told our reporter: “Kathmandu has been tested over the last week by an unusual monsoon – you need the people who run and design this city to have access to information on major global transitions like how urban infrastructure can cope with future climate events.” Indeed, urban infrastructure is one of the four major global transitions that countries need to pay attention to in coming decades, underlined the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPCC’s 1.5 Special Report</a> last year. The others are land use, industry and energy systems.The scientists writing the IPCC’s 6th assessment in Kathmandu this week will be focusing on adaptation and impact, but their final report will not be released till 2022. The danger is that, at the accelerated pace of warming that we are witnessing, the data used to predict impact will itself be outdated.Just as the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Himalayan Assessment</a> released by ICIMOD earlier this year showed, the warming trend is already <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">much worse than we thought</a>. Our mountains are warming up to 0.7oC degrees faster than the global average, melting and shrinking glaciers at an accelerated pace.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">On thin ice in the Khumbu</a>, Kunda Dixit <figure><img width="1500" height="1275" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f6e9c7e80680e04fd08jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>If we go on with business as usual, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">spewing the same amount of carbon</a> we do today, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two-thirds of the ice in the Himalaya</a> will be gone this century, with catastrophic effects for the up to 1.6 billion people living downstream.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ice-to-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ice and snow</a> get all the media attention, but weather extremes are already depleting aquifers and as groundwater levels drop, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">springs are going dry</a> in Nepal’s mid-mountains.Our governments have a tendency to blame all their past neglect and poor governance on the climate crisis. In fact, climate change is a god-sent excuse for them to do nothing. However as we know, Nepal’s poverty, dependence on rain-fed agriculture and lack of clean drinking water, are structural problems that pre-date climate change. The global climate emergency just makes all our existing development problems more challenging.What we have to be prepared for is that even the IPCC’s findings presented in Incheon and Katowice last year may be too optimistic, and that warming trends will certainly be much worse.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>, EditorialWe really do not need more evidence that the climate emergency is happening. The question is, what we are going to do about it. Being an inter-governmental body, the IPCC is a vital interface between scientists and politicians. Policymakers now need to turn the knowledge available into specific action for the local context. The old cliché may have to be turned around: act globally, think locally. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Ten years ago this week, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16123#.XTAAvPIzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">front page story</a> in Nepali Times by Prashant Jha from New Delhi (<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/460" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#460, 17 -23 July, 2009</a>) dealt with what Nepal-watchers in India's capital were thinking about the political goings-on in Kathmandu. Then, as now, Delhi seemed confused. Excerpt:‘There is a great deal of confusion in India about the political confusion in Nepal, but officials here say they want the Maoists to “reform internally” and support the Madhav Nepal government.Sections of the Indian establishment concede Nepal’s government suffers a legitimacy crisis. They insist that the process must move forward in the present framework. Indian officialdom wants the government now to try to get the political process back on track. India is learnt to have told Madhav Nepal to “keep the doors open” for the Maoists and constantly engage with them.’<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/460"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f729c7e80680e04fd09jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="700" height="1077"></a>

Act globally, think locally

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f349c7e80680e04fcf6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="998"/><figcaption>The melting Khumbu Glacier below Mount Everest. The Khumbu glacier has shrunk and receded dramatically in the last 30 years. Photo: ALEX TREADWAY/ICIMOD</figcaption></figure>More than 260 scientists from 60 countries are in Kathmandu this week to work on their next report on the global climate emergency just as a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-is-the-monsoon-this-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delayed monsoon</a> unleashed storms that killed 60 people in Nepal and affected millions downstream in India.The experts are attending the Second Lead Author Meeting of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II to put together its 6th Assessment Report due out in 2022 looking at impact, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/act-globally-think-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Act globally, think locally</a>, Editorial“IPCC chose to organise the meeting in Kathmandu exactly because of the growing recognition of the impact of climate change on the weather in the Himalaya. There is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more frequent heat waves</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-2019-deluge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">freak rain as we have had in Kathmandu</a> this monsoon,” said Philippus Wester, climate scientist at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), which is hosting the meeting with Nepal’s Ministry of Forests and Environment.Indeed, the scientists got a ringside seat for climate-induced extreme weather this week as parts of Nepal got a month’s worth of rainfall in a 24-hour period, after the monsoon finally arrived three weeks late. Many delegates had to be rerouted because Kathmandu airport was closed for the whole day on 12 July. (See box, below)“Although it is difficult to attribute a single weather event to climate change, there is now growing evidence that there is a correlation,” explained Hans-Otto Pörtner, co-chair of Working Group II. “We know that many natural systems have already reached their limits in coping with these unprecedented transformations.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f379c7e80680e04fcf7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Besides the monsoon, an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ICIMOD assessment</a> of the impact of global warming on the Himalaya showed that the mountains are melting 0.3-0.7oC faster than the global average. Even in the best-case scenario, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Himalaya</a> will lose more than one-third of its glaciers this century, said the report. At the current rate of carbon emissions, two-thirds of Himalayan ice <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will be gone by 2100</a>, with devastating consequences for the more than 1.6 billion people living downstream.Scientists said predictions in a previous IPCC report presented at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Paris climate conference in 2015 underestimated</a> the rise in average global temperatures and its impact on weather patterns, sea level rise and melting of the polar ice caps. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another meeting in Poland</a> last December predicted more heat waves, flash floods, storms and starvation – some of which the world witnessed this summer.“The timing of the Kathmandu meeting is significant because it is happening during this monsoon, when unprecedented rain has triggered floods and landslides across the country,” said climate expert Manjeet Dhakal. “This supports scientific findings of the anticipated effects of climate change and is a strong reminder that delayed action will have higher costs.”Scientists at the Kathmandu meeting will be assessing the latest evidence about the extent and impact of the climate emergency for a report to be released in 2022. However, some scientists are afraid their predictions today will be overtaken by events such as Europe recording its hottest ever June, Japan’s heat wave last year that saw historically high temperatures, and Australia, sub-Saharan Africa and southern India experiencing unprecedented droughts this year.“We are in Kathmandu which has been tested over the last week by an unusual monsoon, so you need people who run and design this city to have access to information on major global transitions like how urban infrastructure can cope with future climate events,” said Debra Roberts, co-chair of the IPCC’s working group.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f3b9c7e80680e04fcf8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Experts say that the challenge now is to convert evidence of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate crisis into policy and action</a> globally and by individual governments. Since the IPCC is made up of the world’s 195 governments, it forms a bridge between the latest level of scientific knowledge and policymakers. However, even as evidence about the seriousness of the crisis grows, some countries are in denial, while others wait for funds to adapt to climate impact.Feasible technical solutions to reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere include switching to renewable energy and enlarging carbon sinks through forest cover are available, but these are stuck at the policy or implementation level. Even so, there are many examples of communities in Nepal that offer solutions to resource conservation that also contribute to reducing the impact of the climate emergency.“Nepal offers many inspiring examples of what a far-sighted community can achieve in spite of limited resources,” said Bronwyn Hayward of the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand, one of the IPCC contributors attending the Kathmandu conference who visitedSikles and Bandipur where local communities are using forestry and eco-tourism to build resilience to cope with the changing climate.“These achievements are now threatened by what is happening globally. The rest of the world has the responsibility to step up and do their bit,” added Hayward.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f3e9c7e80680e04fcf9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/mountainous-change,887" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Himalaya</a> has become a touchstone for the impact of the climate emergency: what is happening in the mountains is an indication of what is happening in rest of the world. The Oceans and Cryosphere Special Report that IPCC is publishing in September will have a full chapter on mountain ecosystems, and a crosscutting paper in the IPCC’s sixth assessment will further signify the impacts of climate change in the Himalayas.Said Wester: “We can only present our research findings with a sense of urgency in such a way that it is not alarmist but honest with the knowledge that we have. It is up to the governments and societies to decide what to do with it but we are already starting to see a shift.”“These mountains are a climate change hotspot, and having the IPCC meeting in Nepal means the world is paying attention to the Himalaya,” added David Molden, Director General of ICIMOD.<h2>Carbon footprint of climate conferences</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f419c7e80680e04fcfajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3653" height="1365"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The nearly 300 climate scientists from 60 countries attending the big IPCC conference in Kathmandu this week are aware that each of them will have emitted between 6-10 tons of carbon flying to and from Nepal. Civil aviation contributes more than 3% of the carbon emissions that is warming the atmosphere.Ironically, this year’s freak monsoon was partly caused by climate change, and forced many of the flights that scientists were taking to Kathmandu this week to hold for hours in the air, or to be diverted, further increasing their carbon footprint.Many in social media are asking if flying 300 scientists across the planet to write voluminous reports that governments ignore is worth the carbon it generates. Why can’t they just Skype?“As individuals we try to reduce travel as much as we can, using Skype, but given the complicated nature of the issue and how fast it is changing, some things we just have to do face-to-face,” explains Bronwyn Hayward, who flew in from New Zealand, but combined her trip with a fact-finding visit to community forestry user groups in Kaski and Bandipur.“<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/to-make-up-for-monsoon-slack-nepal-opts-for-spiritual-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tourism</a> is also essential for the economies of Nepal and New Zealand, but travellers come from all over the world burning all that carbon,” she added.Indeed, some scientists said they regularly buy <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-playing-victim-to-proactive-leadership-on-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">carbon offsets</a> for flights to their conferences, while others said decisions taken at these conferences are too important to be done on Facebook Messenger.As the host government, Nepal has tried to ensure that the weeklong meeting at the Yak &amp; Yeti Hotel in Kathmandu will be as green as possible. All conference meals are vegetarian, and the use of plastic is actively discouraged.

Sonia Awale

Weather warning for climate meeting

Gebru Jember Endalew has been involved in UN negotiations on climate change since 2008 as a core member of the Ethiopian negotiating team. Last year, he stepped down as Chair of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) Group on Climate Change, of which Nepal is a member and Bhutan is the new Chair.Currently, Endalew is an adviser at the Korea-based <a href="http://gggi.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Green Growth Institute</a>. Endalew was in Kathmandu this week for consultations on resilience and adaptation for Asia-Pacific members of the LDC group. He spoke to Nepali Times on how least-developed countries like Nepal can cope with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a>.Read also:'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21122&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>', Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan Melting</a>, Kunda Dixit'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21132&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Turning on the heat</a>', Ajaya DixitSimilarities between Nepal and EthiopiNepal and Ethiopia have a lot in common. We are LDCs, we are land-locked, face severe impacts of global climate change despite not being major greenhouse gas emitters. And we are both mountainous countries. Mountain ecosystems are <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/mountainous-change,887" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highly fragile in terms of climate change impacts</a>, as proven by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">study released this week</a> by ICIMOD Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPCC 1.5 Degree World report</a>.We know that a 1.5 degree world is achievable, but even an increase of one degree in global average temperature has major consequences ranging from forest fires, extreme weather events to changing monsoon patterns. Yet some of the countries were still in denial at the Climate Summit in Poland. But we LDCs have been consistent in terms of our reflections about the 1.5 degree report and we believe it will be taken up at the UN Secretary General’s meeting in September in New York.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25cb9c7e80680e0439e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="1067"/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>Climate justiceWhile we need to continue to push big emitters for more pledges for adaptation, we cannot completely depend on compensation to address the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impact of climate change</a> on our people. Trillions were promised in Poland but it will take years to materialise. And now that the number of big emitters have increased, and include many of our own countries, reimbursement alone will not take us anywhere in terms of investments required.If we stick to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9980#.XFvcbVUzaUl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">historical responsibility for carbon emissions</a>, we will not arrive at a solution. If we wait for developed countries to pledge resources, we will not be able to adapt to the urgent impacts that are already being felt. So government in countries like Nepal and Ethiopia need to look for domestic financial resources and engage the private sector in solutions to generate revenue. We need to move out of the victim narrative to proactive leadership to deal with it.In fact, Nepal can be a leader in terms of developing innovative mitigation actions, even if it may have a much <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">smaller carbon footprint</a> compared to other countries. Better ecosystem and resource management here can reduce the risks of flooding in lower catchment areas of India and Bangladesh.And to be honest, past actions cannot be blamed when people were just trying to improve their lives. Post-industrial emissions were not deliberate. The biggest blunder of all would be for our leaders to repeat the same mistakes with the knowledge they have today about the impact of greenhouse gases.Turning the clock backCountries like the US and Brazil are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bypassing-trump-on-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">regressing on prior commitments</a> when it comes to climate change action. But I’m a bit of an optimist myself. Despite a somewhat bleak scenario at the leadership level, what is happening on the ground is encouraging. We see consecutive peaks in investment on renewable energy around the world including in the US, and these newer cleaner technologies are cheaper and more easily accessible to the people.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bypassing-trump-on-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bypassing Trump on climate change</a>, Kunda DixitMitigation or adaptation?Mitigation, adaptation and development have to go together. There is no point in making distinction. Mitigation measures to reduce fossil fuel dependence eventually contributes to development and resilience. For example: electricity generated from hydropower improves the living standard of the people while also reducing greenhouse gases.Initially there was a misconception that mitigation was not for the developing countries. We know now that everyone has to be involved in the global mitigation process, not just to save the planet but also to save our economies.All of this requires good leadership. Unless there is a political guidance, whatever resources we have might be either least used or abused. Good governance is a key to better planning and implementation to cope with climate impact.

From playing victim to proactive leadership on climate

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25cd9c7e80680e0439e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"/><figcaption>Photo: GEORGE MALLORY</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101148/636a25d09c7e80680e0439e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="900"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Unprecedented in recorded history, there was a 100 degree C difference in temperature between the northern and southern hemispheres last week. While parts of Australia baked in record 50oC heat, in North America hell froze over with the mercury plunging to -50oC.Somewhere in between in Nepal, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/snowbound-rara/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heavy winter snow blanketed the mountains</a> last week after a break of almost 12 years. The fact that such snowfall was seen as ‘abnormal’, indicated just how far from the ‘normal’ we have deviated.The return of winter snow in Nepal and the simultaneous extreme hot and cold in the antipodes actually proves the impact on weather patterns brought by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a>. Most climate models agree that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rise in global average temperature</a> due to the continued emission of carbon dioxide will result in higher rates of temperature rise over land, and particularly in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">higher Himalayan regions</a>. The snowline has been migrating upward with rainfall replacing snow, and lowered seasonal snow and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ice storage</a> have started limiting melt flow in rivers.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda Dixit'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21122&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>', Editorial As rivers originating in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Himalaya start going dry in the summer season</a>, there is serious concern about rising heat. In a few weeks, temperatures across northern South Asia <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/19/asia-heating-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will start going up</a>. Day-time summer temperature will reach 40oC+ in many places. Nights will not cool down enough, and humidity will also increase. At higher humidity, the human body cannot release heat through sweat evaporation fast enough to cool itself. Most people cannot remain unprotected in the open for more than 6 hours at temperatures above  370C.A 2014 study of interactions of temperature and humidity in the Indus and Ganga plains by the US-based National Center of Atmospheric Research, and ISET-International found that by 2050, most of June, July and August days and nights will hover above the 370C threshold. A later study by MIT researchers warned of deadly heat waves in the Indo-Gangetic plains, meaning the numbers dying across India, Pakistan and Nepal Tarai in summer will shoot up.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decarbonise now</a>, Ajaya Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">On thin ice in the Khumbu</a>, Kunda DixitThe <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/naturally-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rapid degradation of natural ecosystems</a> within and around many of our cities have removed heat sinks. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/poisoning-the-air-we-breathe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vehicular emissions</a>, air conditioners, concrete and asphalt pavements, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/open-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">air pollution</a> trapping heat between buildings continue to raise the temperature in core cities. These urban heat islands will amplify the impact of global warming, with significant impacts on low-income families and the poor living in substandard housing, lacking safe drinking water, basic energy, and without direct access to air conditioning.Even if air conditioning was affordable for poor and low-income families, running them will require additional energy from over-burdened electricity grids. In Australia’s heat wave last week, the authorities advised residents to delay using washing machines and dishwashers, and requested healthy people to consider keeping their air conditioners at 24oC to save energy. Older model air conditioners also leak HFCs – chemical coolants which are about 7,000 times more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide.Read also:'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21128&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From playing victim to proactive leadership on climate</a>'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The great Himalayan thaw</a>, Ajaya DixitIn Nepal, as <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/climate-climax,3651" target="_blank" rel="noopener">global temperature rises</a>, the lower river valleys of the Siwalik and the Mahabharat as well as Tarai plains will see more days when the safe temperature/humidity threshold will exceed 37OC. Even in Kathmandu, June-July-August will have hotter days as global warming combines with the urban heat bubble to make it uncomfortably humid and unsafe.Nepal’s policies, plans and actions have not yet taken the threat of heat risk seriously. Nor have we begun to  systematically assess changes in local temperatures and humidity regimes.Reducing the threat of increasing heat requires us to carefully rewire the way we design houses, build infrastructure, deliver and manage energy, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forests</a>, grow food, and maintain productivity of small land holders and field workers. Shifting to cleaner forms of energy for cooking and <a href="w.nepalitimes.com/here-now/cleaner-air-with-greener-buses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">public transportation</a> would give us the flexibility required to minimise growing threat of heat, and adapt.Urban and rural municipalities can begin working on solutions without waiting for national policies. Local governments have the authority and their programs must emphasise restoration and conservation of natural ecosystems, water sources, and provide incentive for climate-friendly house design and materials. Public health systems need to be better prepared to respond immediately to the elderly, children and pregnant women with heat stress.Increasing heat and low dry season flow of rivers is going to affect millions living downstream from the Himalaya in Nepal and beyond. In the mid term, developed and giant middle-income countries need to significantly curb emission of greenhouse gases. There is no other way.And while they mitigate carbon use, we in Nepal need to be prepared for low river flows in the dry season, and find ways to minimise the impact of prolonged heat waves. The more we delay taking action, the higher will be the future cost of measures we will have to take to adapt to the heat.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

Turning on the heat

Born in Khandbari in eastern Nepal, Parashuram Pathak helped his family around the farm, sold what they grew in the market and lent a hand in the kitchen.&nbsp; After working as a chef in Dubai, San Francisco, Denmark, Australia, and on cruise ships, Pathak has now brought back what he has learnt to the Tusa Restaurant in Bhaktapur that opened on Nepali New Year on 13 April. Tusa uses fresh indigenous ingredients from various parts of Nepal, and fuses them with international methods to produce unique dishes. Pathak is a global Nepali, and is introducing global Nepali cuisine to his homeland. Pathak left an executive chef job to intern at three-Michelin-starred Noma in Denmark, named the best restaurant in the world five times. Noma runs on a philosophy of foraging to rediscover wild local ingredients, and Tusa’s mission is similarly noble: preparing dishes with Nepali ingredients using modern techniques and equipment. “We are taking Nepali food beyond dal-bhat and momo, we are taking it international,” Pathak said on the phone from Sydney. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-baker-rises-to-the-top-in-denmark">Denmark’s best baker is a Nepali</a>, Vishad Onta  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_1312bc016cbb2fe59c6d4a78d1f8b463af4a10b3f79559a2405fd54ea5b3197a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240419180424_1312bc016cbb2fe59c6d4a78d1f8b463af4a10b3f79559a2405fd54ea5b3197a" data-rendition-name="original" width="801" height="802" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Photo: PARASHURAM PATHAK/FACEBOOK</figcaption> </figure>  Pathak’s team in Nepal includes chefs Rupesh Bohara and Sagar Shrestha who have also worked extensively in Dubai and Australia, and share his vision. The three realised they shared the same dream, and over the past five years have travelled across Nepal to research their menu, collecting ingredients and ideas from homestays, food carts, and nature. The team then scouted for Nepal’s best architect, and zeroed in on Bhaktapur-based heritage conservationist Rabindra Puri who designed the Malla-era house for Tusa in the Nag Pokhari neighbourhood. Bohara and Shrestha have moved back to Nepal for good, and Pathak arrives in September. “I made dishes from all over the world, but when someone asked what Nepali food was like, I had no answer,” says Bohara, “I came back to find out.” &nbsp;“You can get citizenship, a green card, big houses and cars, but where is the self-satisfaction?” asks Shrestha, who has a red-and-blue chef’s knife with the sun and moon of the Nepali flag tattooed on his right forearm.&nbsp; Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/the-return-of-a-master-baker"> The return of a master baker</a>, Raju Pakhrin  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_c601264463e5a28d4e71a46781f340a53619a08d00949a7aaebfef84e75a319d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240419180424_c601264463e5a28d4e71a46781f340a53619a08d00949a7aaebfef84e75a319d" data-rendition-name="original" width="6000" height="4000" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Photos: TUSA</figcaption> </figure>  Bohara and Shrestha passionately recount stories of their trips across Nepal, speaking of generous lodge owners who introduced them to local ingredients. Tusa can seat 28, and dining here is a sensory experience with a live kitchen. The chefs cook and place dishes on a large granite countertop with induction sections built in. Behind the counter is a grill on an indoor fire with pulley control to adjust the fire. Everything that can be made in Nepal — chairs and tables, ceramic dishes, the grill — is locally sourced. The executive kitchen/laboratory is downstairs. It is spacious, spotless, and contains appliances rarely seen in restaurants here: a sous vide machine that cooks vacuum-sealed packets at consistent temperatures, and a dehydrator for sisnu nettles. A fresh batch of deep purple kimbu (mulberry) muffins has just come out of the oven. Fridges have dry-aged fish and marigold kombucha. Fermentation seems to be the theme at Tusa, and Pathak explained: “Fermentation takes away the natural sugars in food, leaving behind a true, umami taste.”&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/vikings-khukri-passion">Viking's khukri passion</a>, Alisha Sijapati  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_c59e2b4230864f646bc36108adb951e95ec85da6156740294b1ec715b86acf89.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240419180424_c59e2b4230864f646bc36108adb951e95ec85da6156740294b1ec715b86acf89" data-rendition-name="original" width="5895" height="3930" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> </figure>  Tusa itself means ‘shoot’ in Nepali, and can be a dish of fermented bamboo shoots. The restaurant serves a tasting menu with six courses, plus surprises. It starts with a fermented potato and millet roti with charred green garlic and tomato chutney. The bread tastes like a mix of alu paratha and kodoko roti with a satisfying, mild flavour. The chefs do not show off, and overdo it. Dishes are tastefully simple and faithful, a theme that runs through the meal. The second course is a filet of fish charred on one side and placed in a broth. It is delicate and smokey, and does not mask the character of the fish.&nbsp; The next is Batuk Chukauni, a Magar dish with a lentil snack and a yoghurt-based potato achar. The batuk, made of lentil batter, is light and the chukauni has potatoes and peas. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/money-is-not-everything-but-you-need-money-for-everything">"Money is not everything, but you need money for everything"</a>, Rohit Shrestha  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_e3f51228ff792e8d4297f81f8e67d138584e922ae035d131977494219e5e85c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240419180424_e3f51228ff792e8d4297f81f8e67d138584e922ae035d131977494219e5e85c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Batuk Chukauni. Photo: VISHAD ONTA</figcaption> </figure>  Next is a skewer of jackfruit with a tamarind and mustard glaze that has the texture of a slice of sausage and melts in the mouth. Then comes the first off-menu item: a steak of watermelon, glazed and grilled, tasting sweet, sour and smokey. After that a palate cleanser sorbet made with laligurans syrup adorned with a frozen candied rhododendron petal. Finally the main course: barbeque chicken and chyakla coarse corn grits. The chicken has been brined, marinated, cooked sous-vide and seared on the grill. The delicate consistency of the chicken stands out. Desert is a smooth, creamy cheesecake that uses the local juju-dhau yoghurt. And the last course is a moist, moss-green sisnu cake laced with mulberry jam and cream.&nbsp; There is nothing gimmicky about Tusa. It is the coming together of skilled Nepalis with international exposure who have mixed what they have learnt abroad with the flavours of home.&nbsp; The tasting menu is Rs3,500, and it may take some time before Nepalis develop a predilection for some of its items. The chefs are excited, vindicated, and relieved. Coming back to Nepal, uprooting successful careers abroad to take a chance on Nepal must not have been easy.&nbsp; Tusa had a soft launch on New Year’s day with Kathmandu-based diplomats. Australian Ambassador Felicity Volk was one of them, and wrote on a Facebook post: ‘Chefs who honed their skills in Australia and returned to Nepal to give back. We call it fine dining, they call it #cominghome.’ Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/the-baker-of-barpak">The baker of Barpak</a>, Tara Aryal Pandey

The return of the natives

For a year or two after the 25 April 2015 earthquake, the residents of Kathmandu were too terrified to return to their high-rise apartments. None of them collapsed in the 7.8 disaster, but many sustained serious structural damage. &nbsp;
Fast forward nine years, and they have all but forgotten that frightful day. Kathmandu is back to building substandard structures, even as land prices drive developers to build taller.&nbsp;
With no more space to spread horizontally, Kathmandu is going vertical. But structural engineers say most of the high rises do not take into account seismicity, soil condition, construction methods, quality of raw materials, fire hazard, and search and rescue in collapsed concrete structures.
“Much of our focus since the 2015 earthquake has been on building and construction, but not as much on where we are building,” warns Sangeeta Singh, Professor of Urban Planning and Deputy Director of Centre for Disaster Studies at the Institute of Engineering.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale
She adds: “Kathmandu is not really suited for high-rises. We have to first test the condition of the soil, but building permits are being issued without this fundamental step.”
Kathmandu Valley is a former lakebed with soft topsoil prone to liquefaction and excessive shaking, as seen during the 1934 megaquake. Many ruptures tore up the surface in 2015. &nbsp;
During an earthquake, the rock layers below Kathmandu ring like a bell and the vibrations on the surface take between 0.5 to 2 seconds for one oscillation. Buildings also vibrate, but at different frequencies depending on their height, construction material, and arrangement of their structural components.
At five floors, the vibration period of a building is 0.5 seconds, which is the same as that for Kathmandu Valley, and this could cause more damage, says structural engineer Surya Narayan Shrestha at the National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET).
“Building anything that is five storeys or higher in Kathmandu needs special design and structural considerations,” says Shrestha.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/shaking-things-up">Shaking things up</a>, Editorial
Technologies exist to reduce seismic risk in high-rises, and these are used in earthquake-prone cities like Tokyo, Los Angeles, Jakarta or Mexico City.&nbsp;
Base isolation, for example, separates the vibration of the land and the building, reducing damage from soil-building resonance. Base isolators move and stretch under pressure, absorbing much of an earthquake's impact by reducing swaying and shaking. &nbsp;
Seismic dampers change the pattern of vibration altogether, dissipating energy as vibrations move across a structure. But these are all expensive technologies, and none of the high-rises in Kathmandu use them.
However, Nepali engineers who can help with technology transfer are working in the field in Nepal and overseas. Kathmandu’s high-rises are already very expensive, and making them seismic-resistant would be an incremental cost.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/learning-from-jajarkot-what-we-didnt-after-2015-695vpzle">Learning from Jajarkot what we didn't after 2015</a>, Sushil Gyewali
The shape of high-rises also matters. Reinforced concrete buildings with asymmetric designs of the kind that are seen in newer structures in Kathmandu experience more torsion and shear during quakes. High-rises with regular geometry are stronger. &nbsp;&nbsp;
An even bigger concern is that of emergency evacuation and rescue in case of fire or earthquake. Kathmandu fire services do not have ladders that reach the higher floors of most new structures.
“High-rises mean more people and potentially higher casualties,” explains Shrestha. “We need immediate evacuation routes, fire escapes, emergency ladders, and fire trucks that can reach higher. Right now, safety features are voluntary and not mandatory.”
The street access, shelters, open spaces, and evacuation routes are integral to disaster preparedness and the safety of neighbourhoods and not just buildings. Most new high-rises in Kathmandu have narrow access roads.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later">Rebuilding resilience 7 years later</a>, Anil Pokhrel
Since most of the buildings that survived the 2015 disaster were reinforced concrete structures, it fed the misconception that they are safer. But Himalayan seismologists say that if the intensity and duration of the shaking had been just a little higher, many substandard concrete structures would have collapsed.&nbsp;
And that is the final gap: Nepal’s limited expertise and equipment for search and rescue inside collapsed concrete structures. Kathmandu’s high-rises need to be better prepared for the next Big One.
“Structural safety and design were at the front and the centre after the 2015 earthquake, we also revised some building codes but we are back to square one with contractor-driven construction, especially in peri-urban areas,” says Sangeeta Singh, who is also with the National Planning Commission. “We need to monitor construction as much as design.”&nbsp;
Shrestha at NSET agrees there have been improvements in building practices in the past nine years, but adds, “We have both learnt and unlearnt lessons from 2015. The awareness hasn’t yet translated into action on safety.”
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">Lessons not learned from 2015</a>, Sonia Awale

The rise of high-rises

Midway along the stretch of the ancient trade route between Tibet and India lies the Kel Tol neighbourhood. The name is derived from the original Koligrām, and it is believed the Koli people, who were originally from Rāmagrām in present-day southern Nepal near the Indian border, settled here. The Koli were the maternal ancestors of none other than the Buddha. Kel Tol is famous for the Buddhist monastic complex of Kanak Chaitya Mahāvihar, featuring the majestic two-tiered gilded temple of the white god Karunāmaya.&nbsp; This elaborately decorated courtyard is a bustling centre of the Vajrayāna sect of Buddhism, practised widely by the indigenous Newā people of Kathmandu Valley. Karunāmaya, also known as Ārya Avalokiteshwor, is defined in great detail in the 1st century CE Buddhist text Sadharmapundarikā where he liberates all sentient beings from suffering. He helps rid the eight external fears metaphorically equated with their equivalent internal states of mind: lions (pride), wild elephants (ignorance), fire (anger), snakes (jealousy), floods (attachment), imprisonment (miserliness), thieves (wrong views) and cannibals (doubt).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_fe370cbee75003cd3eb5dccc7c3b2671630da193b0744db2aeac1bab3ff4a85c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240418130432_fe370cbee75003cd3eb5dccc7c3b2671630da193b0744db2aeac1bab3ff4a85c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1338" height="2000" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  In the Pancha Rakshyā Sutra, a Buddhist scripture from 200 CE, Ārya Avalokiteshwor was counted among the eight major deities. Followers of the Brāhminical god Shiva worship Ārya Avalokiteshwor as Seto Machhindranāth. For Shaivites, Machhindranāth is the Indian saint who founded the Nāth cult in the 10th century CE. He is the guru of saint Gorakhnāth. During the reign of Yakshya Malla (1428–1482 CE), a beautiful image of Ārya Avalokiteshwor was dug up by a farmer in present-day Jamal, which was then a cultivated area outside the city. The farmer, known as a Jamami (meaning the one from Jamal) took the image home for safekeeping. That night, Ārya Avalokiteshwor appeared in the farmer’s dream and told him that the proper place for him to reside is at the confluence of two rivers. The nearest confluence was at present-day Wongha (Indrachok) and the image was installed in the Kanak Chaitya Mahāvihar complex in Kel Tol near Wongha. This made it easier for city residents to pay homage to Ārya Avalokiteshwor and spread compassion. Soon, the deity came to be revered highly as Jamaleshwor, the one found in Jamal. Eventually, the name got corrupted, as happens often in Nepāl Bhāsā, to Janabahā Dyo. The courtyard where his temple is located is now popularly known as Janabahā.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_5c9b219530e400445ef4e7f64856b43e7cdb756be26d9ed4565c84044c178a7e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240418130432_5c9b219530e400445ef4e7f64856b43e7cdb756be26d9ed4565c84044c178a7e" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1668" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  The gilded temple of Janabahā Dyo, first built in the early 16th century CE, is adorned with wooden and metal artefacts that symbolise 108 forms of Ārya Avalokiteshwor. It stands out as the most decorated temple of its kind in Kathmandu. Today, Janabahā is a living heritage site where many ancient customs and rituals are widely practised as per Vajrayāna Buddhist tradition. Devotees throng the Janabahā Dyo shrine for daily worship and to receive Karunāmaya’s blessings. Being the compassionate one, Ārya Avalokiteshwor goes around town every year in his tall wooden chariot to allow sick and physically disabled devotees to pay homage to him from the comfort of their homes. One could say it is a door-to-door visit by the Compassionate One.&nbsp; For the pragmatic minded, the chariot festival is an annual renewal of communal harmony, validation of our ancient mathematical supremacy and demonstration of the need to keep practical skills alive, including the craft of building earthquake resilient houses.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_fc8b234ceca87dee4b99e897a485cef121fb953857fb61492a413fbfcc48360c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240418130432_fc8b234ceca87dee4b99e897a485cef121fb953857fb61492a413fbfcc48360c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  The Janabahā Dyo chariot is pulled from Jamal, where his image was found by the farmer, through the historic heart of Kathmandu in a gala parade every year. The procession, accompanied by folk music ensembles and revellers, starts on the eighth day of the bright half of the month of Chaitra, and lasts up to a week (ending on Saturday this year). Hundreds of devotees pull the chariot along the streets as a way of expressing their gratitude to lord Karunāmaya for blessing them with compassion and well-being. Purna Ratna Vajrāchārya is an ordained priest who belongs to the clan responsible for taking care of Janabahā Dyo. He has been studying the design and architecture of the chariot for the past 40 years, and overseeing its construction for the past 15. He has learnt that the engineering principles of building the chariot are based on the mathematical system in which Buddhism is taught. For example, 365 pieces of wood are used in the chariot, each representing a day of the year. Each of the four wheels consist of 25 pieces of wood, totalling 100, representing completeness or fulfilment. The chariot is vertically divided into 13 sections, a parallel to the Buddhist concept of Trayodashi Bhuvana that describes the 13 steps that one must take to achieve the state of Nirvana.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_36d9964c9845f6d9a074786361fc5ab7d49138503ad162086998b731349b0ec0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240418130432_36d9964c9845f6d9a074786361fc5ab7d49138503ad162086998b731349b0ec0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1668" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_2662753a9514a682ccdfd17bf05e2be3771183a68dc86b717ab67d9aad894563.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240418130432_2662753a9514a682ccdfd17bf05e2be3771183a68dc86b717ab67d9aad894563" data-rendition-name="original" width="1668" height="2500" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  &nbsp;Exactly nine types of wood are used, which is the sum of the four base elements that make up the universe (earth, water, fire and air) and the five human senses. The height and length of the chariot is 32 arm’s length (hāt in Sanskrit), 14.8m. The number 32 represents the maximum number of auspicious and physical qualities one could possess to be considered an outstanding human being.&nbsp; Says Vajrācharya, “Observing how the chariot is built helps one learn the fundamental pillars of the Buddha’s teachings, and find an easier path to Nirvana.” The structural design of the nearly 15m wooden chariot is not only awe-inspiring but also gravity-defying. It leverages the pliancy of the materials used in its construction -- flexible joints tied with cane soaked in water for several days. The precise proportions of the chariot ensure great manoeuverability in the narrow streets along the route of the chariot procession that include some 90° bends, without colliding into houses.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_9f5c2943f5d6b3f0010d3d5213697549945e87a6f7d3d8cbadd69f0dea6c6e2c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240418130432_9f5c2943f5d6b3f0010d3d5213697549945e87a6f7d3d8cbadd69f0dea6c6e2c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="3750" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  Driving and steering the chariot with brute muscle power of the mirthful crowd is a seemingly impossible task. But this has been achieved year after year, despite the fact that the devotees who tug wildly at the ropes lassoed to the two front wheels, are most likely in high-spirits (pun intended). Sanjay Manandhar, a US-based technology entrepreneur, recounts how his high school physics teacher from Canada asked his students to go observe the locals build the chariots of Karunāmaya if they were interested in becoming engineers in the future.&nbsp; “That made no sense to me then, but, after all these decades, I now see clearly how the structural design of the chariot, adopted early on by our ancestors is full of earthquake-resilient properties that need to be applied in building houses in an earthquake-prone zone like Nepal,” says Manandhar. A highlight of the chariot festival is that human goddess Kumari makes an appearance at the final destination in Lagan, usually on the third day. This is only one of the 13 times that people get to see the Kumari outside her temple abode.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_08aa39f3f004a212b33c60a2840d6013110de15dd34a0288f699dd5fda8957ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240418130432_08aa39f3f004a212b33c60a2840d6013110de15dd34a0288f699dd5fda8957ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  On the last day of the festival (Saturday), the image of lord Karunāmaya is carried on a palanquin by priests from Janabahā in a gala procession and brought back to his permanent residence at the temple in Kel Tol.&nbsp; The chariot festival is thought to have started during the reign of King Pratap Malla of Kantipur in the 17th century CE. For close to four centuries, the construction of the chariot and its operation has proven to be a phenomenal engineering feat, and the people’s faith in divinity means the tradition is alive.&nbsp; The essence of the colourful rituals and the religious beliefs of this ancient chariot festival is now all but lost. The logic, technology and practicality must be brought back to light, as they reflect the high civilisation and wisdom of our ancestors that we can leverage in modern times and into the future. &nbsp; Alok Tuladhar is a culture and heritage documentarian.

Kathmandu’s gravity-defying chariot festival

In the run-up to the third Nepal Investment Summit this weekend, there have been seminars, conferences and workshops where the discourse has revolved around the economy and the investment climate.
The consensus that Nepal needs foreign direct investments (FDI) to grow was repeated, and the familiar litany of reasons about why it has not been able to was discussed.&nbsp;
Policy advocates and regulators have understood that the lack of urgency is compounded by procedural inconsistencies, on top of the already deficient investment environment in the country.
It is a welcome change from what used to be flippantly accepting matters as given. There now seems to be a sense of urgency, with procedural inconsistencies and lack of harmonisation between various Acts and regulations openly discussed.&nbsp;
Government stakeholders also appear more willing to learn and attempt to be part of the solution. Whatever policy changes have been introduced in the past have been piecemeal and address the few rather than the entire industry. This left dual regulatory approaches aimed at similar players.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/killing-investment-in-nepal-in-10-easy-steps">Killing investment in Nepal in 10 easy steps</a>, Dibesh Karmacharya
This time, unlike in the past two Summits, the government seems to be committed to amending 9 Acts, a positive step towards showing commitment to change. However, the deadline to do so during the winter session of Parliament is over. The option mooted has been to have it passed through ordinance, a lesser appealing step; albeit, a positive one moving forward.&nbsp;
To attract FDI in a competitive global market means that Nepal has to demonstrate that it is serious about bringing in investments with a more consultative and collaborative approach with investors. A departure from procedural to a result-oriented focus is needed.&nbsp;
To put issues in perspective, Nepal needs US$20 billion in investments to meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets by 2030. If net-zero decarbonisation targets are to be met by 2045, another US$7 billion will be required annually.&nbsp;
Looking at our investment history and poor government capital expenditure, the gap is long and wide. In fiscal year 2022-23 Nepal booked a lamentable ~$59 million in FDI (equity). Nepal is in fact the lowest market in South Asia for FDI with 0.3% of the regional average.&nbsp;
What is it that we can do to fill the gap?&nbsp;
First, we need to move away from the notion that Nepal only needs large investments. This has proven to be a mistake, and time series data have proven that smaller investments, in aggregate, make a larger impact on economies.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal">Poor cash-rich Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale
We talk about an ‘enabling environment’ but without the right tools. We place restrictions on interest on debt ceiling (SOFR +5.5), without risk premium adjustments, we do not have an active secondary market for bond trading, nor do we have a yield curve, an integral part of the bond market, which is inhibiting us from tapping into the trillion dollar green bond market.&nbsp;
In order to attract green financing, Nepal needs to develop its bond market. Sovereign risk rating has been mooted and was expected to be operationalised before the Investment Summit.&nbsp;
However, to be rated in an adverse economic environment could further deteriorate investment potential due to a lesser-than-expected rating.&nbsp;
Hedging is another instrument that needs further research on. A commercial bank last year showcased the first risk-hedging mechanism for an investment of $8 million. This can be the beginning to expand on its modality. &nbsp;
Subordinated debt instruments have been introduced, but on a special nod basis, this now needs to be institutionalised as it is the most applicable form of investment after equity in a market that has volatile forex reserves.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment">Invest in investment</a>, Nepali Times
Viability Gap Funding has been introduced by multilateral development agencies implemented in solar installations. It is a tool to incentivise the private sector to invest in projects that are not financially lucrative initially, but have potential for profitability in the long run. This needs to be scaled up and replicated in sectors like infrastructure, where returns may not be immediate.
Moving forward, to attract FDI, Nepal needs to tap into the funds that are available for the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and climate change. Alternative investments such as Private Equity Venture Capital (PEVC) have been around in a structured manner in Nepal for nearly a decade now.
These funds have blended finance components and have attracted climate funding as well. PEVC is a new asset class and can address the issues of penetrating into SME financing by incorporating environment, social and governance issues into their investment process.&nbsp;
SMEs are the backbone of any economy, PEVC comes with the ability not only to scale up the enterprise with risk capital, but with the ability to bring technical knowhow to enhance not only the enterprise but also the entrepreneur.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/success-in-nepal-means-not-having-to-work">Success in Nepal means not having to work</a>, Anil Chitrakar
A differentiator from all other forms of financing available till date in Nepal. Blended finance is a way of de-risking investments, especially in frontier markets. Business Oxygen (BO2) is an example of blended finance with subordinated debt investments of IFC (World Bank Group) taking the lead and Climate Investment Funds along with FCDO as co-investors.&nbsp;
On a larger scale, the 216MW Upper Trisuli 1 is another example of blended finance with IFC, a Korean consortium and local investments. So far, we see that development finance Institutions have been taking the lead in Nepal as their risk appetite is greater than commercial investors and they are eager to help develop the financial markets.&nbsp;
In order to be sustainable, we need to step on this and attract commercial capital from all over the world. To do this there has to be political will to make that pivot.&nbsp;
Instead of being a means to an end, the two previous Investment Summits turned out to be intermittent and cosmetic, providing hardly any results. The third one’s success will depend on how the event will be implemented as a platform for continuous marketing for the country and facilitation for investors in future.&nbsp;
Nepal has outdone many countries in its macro-economic indicators, with sound forex reserves and a stellar history of debt payments to its creditors. This story needs to be propagated along with the drive for change to attract potential investors.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/alternative-investments-to-attract-fdi">Alternative investments to attract FDI</a>, Siddhant Raj Pandey

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