Man Maya crouches on the steps of her concrete house. The house is covered in rough cement plaster. Stark grey now from years of weathering. The colour of the sky above her is a shade darker than her house. “Don’t you feel cold on your legs?” she yells at me while putting her palms together to make the shape of a shell to return my greeting. Her hair is fully gray-- cottony. An imitation of the cloud accumulating above her head. I laugh and pull the end of the sleeves of my jumper all the way down to cover my fingertips. Aja’s jumper, actually. I have been wearing it since he passed last month. How else do you cling to a dead person, but in their belongings? I must make a weird image to Man Maya-- a woman in an oversized man’s jumper and no trousers. She probably thinks I have no trousers. The jumper hangs below my shorts but Man Maya does not know that. I am suddenly blushing because I am conscious of her age and experience and I kind of want her to know I am wearing shorts and that I am not being disrespectful. But I keep walking because the thought of walking up to her and telling her so is even more embarrassing. I walk past her house and downhill towards the river. And always, the river brings me surprises. She seems to attract so much self-destruction. This time, it is the construction workers.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230507080524_f1b7ab4975bc796b3ba2fd313e8d0b673c065d5a94c2eac9a43a04b107b030bd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20230507080524_f1b7ab4975bc796b3ba2fd313e8d0b673c065d5a94c2eac9a43a04b107b030bd" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Hijjya River"> <figcaption>Construction work at Hijyya River on 2 May 2023. </figcaption> </figure>  It has rained the entire week, but there is no swollen river below the bridge as is the rainy season norm. The river is fast downgrading itself into a stream. And like Man Maya’s hair, she too imitates the colour of the sky. The water has turned murky, as it does after rains, only, it has no might. Against the twilight, construction men sit on wheelbarrows, sharing a cigarette, flanked by heaps of mud and rocks. We are building a road that will connect to the main road, they explain. But isn’t there a road already that does the same, I want to ask. Then I hold back as the men start to sermonise about how roads are the key to development. Upsteam, the Angel’s Trumpet plants lay wilting on the dirt. The men explain they cut it down to make way for the road. Next to it is a stack of bamboo shoots, slashed down to its roots.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230507080528_981567632ae3587a194d0c429d2c9767273f097d7f1d93852372ab46665e5ac2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20230507080528_981567632ae3587a194d0c429d2c9767273f097d7f1d93852372ab46665e5ac2" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Construction at Hijjya River"> </figure>  We can still use the bamboo for building, one of the men says. They have built a temporary shelter nearby for the duration of the construction. Downstream, they’re building stalls for what will be a vegetable market. They have torn down part of the hill to build. They boast about how much hard work it was and how they are stronger from doing that kind of work. “Nani, go to the Shiva temple and kneel for blessings,” one of them says. I nod and keep walking past the Shiva who now seems to lure only gentrification. My uninterrupted evening walks have run their course as the quiet pathways give in. Every other walk, there is one more fresh construction happening. Every other walk, there is one more creek that has gone dry (pictured, below).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230507080528_6f0cea842a9c5c1fb6ccfe2245b8c8e2f99ff04f1a41f4ba0e55d520ef7f0a7e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20230507080528_6f0cea842a9c5c1fb6ccfe2245b8c8e2f99ff04f1a41f4ba0e55d520ef7f0a7e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="creek"> </figure>  My legs, now steeped in the muscle memory of this trail, might soon have to learn a new one. My daily route brings me back in full circle before Man Maya’s house. She is still on the steps of her house, now, a cigarette clenched between her fingers. I take courage and sit down on the pavement near her. Her heels are cracked and she wears no slippers. Before us stretches the last remaining open space in the village. Man Maya is the talk of the village-- how she went from being the owner of half the village to now being slumped in debt. “I sold,” she says. “The money seemed good at first, and then we couldn’t stop selling. I had to stop at the house.” “What do you think of the Hijjya River?” I ask. “Oh,” she says. “It’s a dying river.” “But it wasn’t always like that, right?” I probe. “My mother talks about the days when she was a child and they would carry her in a basket to Budanilkantha temple and the river would gurgle angrily as they walked past it.” “Indeed. Hijjya was the angry river. It was proud. It is where we all went to do our washing. In winter, it shone with clear water and in summer, it was always serene with the ducks, bamboo plants and the Angel’s trumpets thriving wildly on the banks. In the monsoon, always angry. Like the women in this village,” she lets out a laugh. “But all women wither and we also die. And this river is also dying. Did you see those men? So excited about building, building, building. Men like that bought my ancestral land too, and look how many houses have grown here in the stead of trees? It is making me go blind,” she laughs aloud and a whiff of stale alcohol sweeps past my nostrils. For a moment, I try to conjure the village of Man Maya’s childhood. A mud and brick house built by her ancestors, where we now sit, overlooking open grazing grounds for cows, green fields, tall trees, wild flowers and goats and cows and dogs and cats and birds. Before us, in the small patch of green now, a black puppy chases two kids and the mother goat bleats away and stares. “Are you okay, Man Maya Didi? I will be heading home,” I say. “Huss, don’t worry,” she says. “The river will get angry again when it must. All we can do is to wait and live that anger.” Suburban Tales is a monthly column in Nepali Times based on real people (with some names changed) in Pratibha’s life.

Pratibha Tuladhar

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Where rivers are not the Phoenix

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413110/63722ea49c7e80680e0c24d5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2667" height="1500"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-affects-himalayan-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">annual paddy planting</a> season is upon us, and the sculpted contours of rice terraces mirror the clouds as farmers wade into the submerged fields.Across Nepal on Wednesday communities came together knee-deep in mud to transplant the first paddy seedlings on watered terraces.There was traditional mud splashing, much singing and dancing to Nepali folk tunes and a traditional feast of dahi chiura as they celebrated the beginning of this year's rice cycle that is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">interwoven with the Valley's festivals</a>.This golden hour drone photo of Balkhu (above) strikingly juxtaposes the urban sprawl that has encroached on land owned by Tribhuvan University and currently farmed by locals. Some of these plots are gradually being used to construct new buildings and modern facilities for university students. The lower part of this photo shows what Kathmandu Valley looked like during monsoon paddy plantation in the past decades.The other aerial photos capture <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-sets-ambitious-target-for-food-sufficiency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rice planting</a> along the Bagmati in Khokana (below). These are the last few remaining patches of paddy that remain untouched by Kathmandu's relentless urban expansion.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413110/63722ea79c7e80680e0c24d6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1046"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413110/63722eab9c7e80680e0c24d7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413110/63722eaf9c7e80680e0c24d8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="2000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722eb39c7e80680e0c24d9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2629" height="1500"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722eb79c7e80680e0c24dajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722ebb9c7e80680e0c24dbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1778" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Further away from the fields, there are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/home-is-where-the-heart-is/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">increasing numbers of settlements</a> and brick factories nearby. The kilns fire moulds of fertile clay deposits of Kathmandu's pre-historic lake to feed the voracious appetite for bricks from buildings that now stand on the former rice fields.The fertile terrace farms of Khokana are disputed, with the government trying to evict farmers to make way for the Kathmandu-Terai expressway.

TERRACES

Nepal’s post-Covid planners need a different tactic. Trying to convince people around the world to visit Nepal because it is there is not working anymore. Maybe they should try to tell them not to visit Nepal. Go away. Scat. Vamos.That way people may actually be more curious about why we are trying to keep them away, what we are hiding, and they will have FOMO and want desperately to visit.Tourists are also told not to visit Nepal in the monsoon. Some guidebook in the 1960s declared the rains as the off-season, and that has stuck. It is time to change that.We need a new slogan, how about: ‘Off to Nepal in the Off Season’, or ‘Visit Nepal: Take a Rain-Cheque’. With our picturesque flooded streets and casinos in every hotel, Nepal can be the combination of Venice and Las Vegas. Only in Nepal can visitors expect the unexpected at every step. Elsewhere in the world it rains cats and dogs, but in Nepal it rains only dogs. And lots of them.Soon the monsoon will be here. And the Tourism Revival Committee should be trying to turn Nepal’s liabilities into asses. For example, Kathmandu can rebrand itself and turn its name into Mudmandu. If Glastonbury can make wallowing in mud pools a tourist attraction, we have far more ooze here. And it is of better quality.Every monsoon, Nepal turns from a dust bowl into a mud bath, and we are wasting the opportunity by not making the best of it.New tv commercials can show monsoon scenes with hit songs like ‘Singing in the Rain’, ‘Have You Ever Seen the Rain’, or ‘A Hard Rain’s A-gonna Fall’ and dub them in Arabic so we can woo visitors from the Gulf countries where it has not rained since dawn of the new millennium. We give them workers, they give us tourists.The Ass has a few free tips for catchy taglines to market the monsoon:‘Nepal: Where It Always Rains on Your Parade’‘Visit Nepal in the Monsoon for a Crash-course in Political Mud-slinging’‘Join the Kathmandu Muckrakers’‘Visit Nepal: Be a Stick-in-the-Mud’‘Watch it rain water buffalos and hippopotami in Chitlang.’  ‘Nepal Airlines: Flies You to the Slime with a Smile’Monsoon is the time for Nepal’s national disease: gastroenteritis. But this explosive affliction need not be a deterrent, it can be turned to our advantage.We can in fact promote diarrhoea, we just need to figure out how to spell it correctly. And that opens up the opportunity for more slogans:&nbsp;<ul> 	<li aria-level="1">Enjoy Runs in the Rain </li> 	<li aria-level="1">Guaranteed Weight Loss Plan: Lose 10kg in 10 Days</li> 	<li aria-level="1">Visit Nepal and Take Part in a Violent Uprising</li> 	<li aria-level="1">Develop a Gut Feeling for Nepal</li></ul>Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/taxman-cometh-2/">Taxman cometh</a>, Ass

Ass s

Muckraking in ‘Mandu

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c179c7e80680e0bd473jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Although Nepal is used to localised rains even post-monsoon, last October saw unprecedented nationwide downpour. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI.</figcaption></figure>On 11 October 2021, Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology declared that the southwest monsoon had officially exited the country. Paddy fields across the country were golden with ripening rice, and Nepalis were getting ready to prepare for the Dasain festival.On 15 October, the Met Office reported that a westerly system had become active, and there was likely to be some rain. Indeed, the frontal system lashed the Indian state of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Uttarakhand</a>, triggering landslides and causing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandus-flash-floods-are-4-decades-in-the-making/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flash floods</a>.Nepal is used to localised rains even after the monsoon ends, but this was the first time in 12 years that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">there was widespread nationwide rain in October</a>. And it was not just ordinary showers, the cloudbursts dumped more than 500mm of rain in Dadeldhura on 17-19 October. Sunsari got nearly 400mm in just 24 hours on 19-20 October.Landslides and floods killed over 120 people across the country, 28 are still missing. Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture had predicted paddy harvests to exceed target because of a healthy monsoon, but the unexpected rain in October cost nearly Rs12 billion in damage to the rice crop, reducing Nepal’s GDP by 0.6%. Sudurpaschim Province alone <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-monsoon-rain-ruins-nepals-crops/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lost up to one-third of paddy that was ready for harvest</a>. <figure><img width="597" height="321" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c199c7e80680e0bd474jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>24-hour rainfall 18-19 October. Source: DHM</figcaption></figure>Roads, bridges, irrigation schemes and hydropower plants were damaged or destroyed. There was $85 million damage to 26 hydroelectric schemes.     Since then, climate scientists and meteorologists have been scratching their heads to figure out what happened, and why there were not more accurate weather forecasts about the severity of the unseasonal precipitation.A new paper ‘<a href="http://isetnepal.org.np/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Early-Warning-System-in-October-2021-Rainfall-Final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Missed Opportunities in Utilisation of Weather Forecasts: An Analysis of the October 2021 Disaster in Nepal</a>’ by risk reduction experts Dinanath Bhandari and Ajaya Dixit investigates what happened, if it could have been foreseen, and how it can be prevented in future.The authors look at the challenge of predicting post-monsoon and winter precipitation, and how <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the global climate crisis is affecting rainfall patterns</a> that used to be fairly regular in the past. The paper analyses precipitation data since 1971 to show that total post-monsoon rains have gone down all over Nepal except parts of the trans-Himalaya.‘Existing meteorological stations are inadequate to cover the diversity of Nepal’s microclimates, and the high mountain and remote regions have fewer stations than required for climate trend analysis,’ the paper notes. <figure><img width="592" height="318" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c1a9c7e80680e0bd475jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>24-hour rainfall October 19-20. Source: DHM</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="592" height="318" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c1c9c7e80680e0bd476jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>24-hour rainfall October 20-21. Source: DHM</figcaption></figure>The authors also look into why there was widespread damage and human casualties despite weather alerts through media. Although the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology did predict rain, the messaging did not include location and time-specific impact-based forecasting, they say.Although the National Disaster Risk Management and Mitigation Authority (NDRMMA) did issue early warnings through social media platforms, including daily situation reports, the paper says that these tended to focus on post-event rescue and relief, and not enough on early warning.Even when the correct forecast was available, there was not enough coordination with various other agencies of government like the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Local Development, local governments, as well as the security agencies for emergency rescue. <figure><img width="649" height="360" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c1e9c7e80680e0bd477jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Stations with over 200 mm of accumulated rainfall in 2021 October</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="608" height="674" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c209c7e80680e0bd478jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Maximum 24-hour October rainfall above 140 mm in October (1951 to 2009)</figcaption></figure>This could have been due to the impending Dasain holiday mood, but the authors also blame ‘location specific impact-based rainfall forecasts’. In other words, the early warning was too general. The authors imply that the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology should not just be in the business of issuing forecasts, but also work with local authorities for preparedness and timely action.  ‘The argument that the frequency of extreme rainfall events in the post-monsoon has increased seems to be valid,’ the paper says. ‘In 2009, the post-monsoon high rainfall was concentrated in west Nepal. It was the same initially in 2021, but the widespread and unseasonal rainfall last year seemed to catch everyone by surprise and there was not even some semblance of preparedness for rescue and relief to be dominant in disaster management response.’Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt/">Lessons still not learnt</a>, Editorial

Post-disaster lessons for Nepal

<figure><img width="640" height="296" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202e49c7e80680e0b27dajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The Bhemthang sediment field this week after the snowstorm, and in July after the flashflood (pictured below). Photos: SONAM LAMA and SHIVA BASKOTA</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="857" height="500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202e79c7e80680e0b27dbjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>A scientific team that had gone to assess a monsoon disaster that damaged <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/melamchi-coming-to-kathmandu" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s most expensive infrastructure project</a> northeast of Kathmandu itself had a narrow escape in a snowstorm this week.The nearly completed $700 million Melamchi Water Supply Project designed to bring water from a glacier in Langtang National Park to Kathmandu through a 26.5km tunnel was badly damaged in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/still-chasing-the-melamchi-mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">freak flash-flood in July</a>.The Asian Development Bank (ADB) that is the main funder of the scheme sent a research group to the headwaters of the Melamchi River to investigate the cause of the floods and assess future risk.However, the 16-member team composed of geologists, glaciologists, support staff and porters which had helicoptered to the Bhemthang region of the valley two weeks ago to investigate <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-monsoon-mess-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the monsoon flood</a> was itself trapped for 27 hours by a winter blizzard.  <img width="640" height="296" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202ea9c7e80680e0b27dcjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="288" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202ec9c7e80680e0b27ddjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202ef9c7e80680e0b27dex-m4v" title="" alt=""/>“It snowed continuously all day on Tuesday and till midnight, and there was more than 1m of snow,” said Sonam Lama, a mountaineering guide with 16 years of experience who knows the region well.Heavy snowfall and small avalanches from above buried the team’s tents and equipment, and members were forced to spend the night under a rock overhang. The next morning the visibility was too poor for a rescue flight, and the helicopter finally arrived on the afternoon of 30 December. The team had just finished carrying out a topographical scan and a geophysical survey of the depth of the fluvial deposits at Bhemthang from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the July floods</a>. The data will be processed to see if there is danger of more floods from the debris field, or the glaciers further up the Pemdang and Melamchi rivers.  “We scanned the sediment deposits up to a depth of 100m to see if there is a risk of it being washed down in future,” said Hari Ghimire, leader of the research team. “We measured the depth and volume of debris, but the data will take some time to be processed.” <figure><img width="2360" height="1562" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202f09c7e80680e0b27dfjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The terrain upstream from the headworks after the flood on the Melamchi River in July. Photo: NDRRMA</figcaption></figure>Six international project staff lost their lives in the debris flow on 15 July, and 20 people downstream are still missing. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The flood</a> destroyed the headwork channel, sedimentation pond and other structures, causing Rs2 billion worth of damage. However, engineers managed to close the main gate to the tunnel just before the flood waters rose, saving the scheme from much more serious destruction. Results of the current investigation will determine what new structures need to be designed to protect the headworks from future floods. A study of the glaciers upstream will also be undertaken to see if there is any vulnerability.Scientists say <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the July floods</a> could have been caused by a combination of destabilised slopes after the 2015 earthquake, being exposed to record rainfall of 200mm in 24 hours on 15 July, and climate change.  <figure><img width="853" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202f49c7e80680e0b27e0jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The Melamchi headworks damaged in the July floods. Photo: SHIVA BASKOTA</figcaption></figure>The rain fell on fragile moraines and slopes which used to get snow earlier. Global warming has also melted the glaciers upstream creating numerous supraglacial ponds.“This geophysical survey of the Melamchi watershed and other studies of the condition of the glaciers will provide us the information necessary to assess the nature of the catchment area so we can plan future action,” said Tajendra Pant, an engineer with the Melamchi project.  <figure><img width="815" height="410" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202f79c7e80680e0b27e1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="907" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202f99c7e80680e0b27e2jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/light-at-the-end-of-the-melamchi-tunnel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Melamchi Water Supply Project</a> was damaged after its soft opening last year, even before it came into full operation to supply Kathmandu Valley with 170 million litres of water a day. A proposed extension of the project to bring water from Yangri and Larke Khola with another 12km tunnel will increase the supply to 510 million litres a day. The tunnel is the second longest water supply tunnel in Asia.

Narrow escape for Melamchi fact-finding team

Monsoon Culture

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016118/636d14149c7e80680e0a995cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>After the flashflood of international media coverage of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, the climate emergency has now fallen off the headlines. The Nepali delegation has returned after setting ambitious targets for forestry, adaptation and net-zero.Now, the real work begins. It is time to walk the talk, so that the people of Manang and Melamchi who suffered devastating floods this monsoon do not just get relief, but are protected from future climate calamities.My own home and farm along the Melamchi <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637647216248000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1l6Qdqf2cPzviP8RzuawAE">was washed away by the freak floods of 15-16 July</a>, and there is no doubt that the severity of extreme weather has increased due to the warming trend in the Himalaya.  Despite being pitted as a ‘make-or-break’ climate summit that would set strict global targets to reduce carbon emissions by 45% from 2010 levels in the next nine years, and net-zero by 2050, to keep the warming at 1.5°, the UN conference was reduced to just a photo-op for leaders from over 140 countries and their 40,000+ delegates.Aside from their own combined carbon emissions for roundtrips to Glasgow, the leaders did not show the needed commitment to limit global heating to below 2° Celsius, let alone 1.5°. In fact, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) submitted by 194 countries will bring down the warming to only 2.4°. Global carbon emission cuts are needed to prevent continental-scale wildfires, more extreme heat waves, flash-floods, glacial melt,  and mass extinctions. The summit also came short in delivering committed finance to developing countries and addressing loss and damage issues. At most, the two-week-long intense negotiations ended with the adoption of the ‘Glasgow Climate Pact,’ which was watered down with the last minute change from coal ‘phaseout’ to ‘phasedown’. But semantics aside, the explicit mention of coal reduction in the climate summit was indication that fossil fuels may finally be on their way out.Even so, the COP26 outcomes did not meet the expectations of countries like Nepal. The Nepal delegation sent a clear message about the urgency of tackling the planetary emergency, citing recent experiences of climate-induced disasters in the country, and pledged to do its bit.Developing countries failed to get desired commitments from industrialised countries about compensation for climate-induced disasters, especially on the agenda of ‘loss and damage’ which would have directly benefited Nepal.The demand of developing countries in establishing the Loss and Damage Facility to finance and support poor and vulnerable nations where climate adaptation limits are exhausted was limited to agreeing on the functions and financing arrangements for technical assistance under the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage.The failure of developed countries to jointly mobilise $100 billion per year by 2020 for climate action was met with harsh criticism prompting them to lay out the ‘Climate Finance Delivery Plan’ in meeting the previous commitment as well as pledge to double the adaptation finance by 2025.Similarly, a clear roadmap was developed to decide on a new collective quantified goal on climate finance going beyond 2025 from a floor of $100 billion per year. A work program from 2022 to 2024 to deliberate and agree on a new goal has been set up.COP26 completed the remaining elements of the Paris Agreement ‘Rulebook’ that had been pending for six years. Market and non-market rules for trading carbon credits have been agreed upon by allowing nations to meet their NDC target by offsetting through green projects in other countries. Developing countries including Nepal gain to benefit from investment in renewable energy, forest protection and other carbon reduction projects through the flow of capital and technology transfer. A levy of 5% from these projects will go to the Adaptation Fund to support adaptation actions in developing countries.Industrialised nations have committed to double adaptation finance with grant components. They have also pledged nearly $1.5 billion to the Adaptation Fund (AF), Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF). Nepal must reap benefits from these limited opportunities for its climate action.If Nepal is to benefit from any of these outcomes and international agreements, it will have to start meticulous preparation. More importantly, we need to craft a robust implementation plan with the neediest and the most vulnerable at the centre, to meet the climate targets we have committed to in the NDC and the National Adaptation Plan submitted to the UN.At the end of the day, attending international conferences and raising mountain issues will not protect local communities from the worsening impacts of the climate crisis. These climate summits provide guidance, but most of our work has to be done here at home.Let us start with what is within our resources: build climate resilient communities by electrifying transport and cooking, reduce the import bill and improve public health. Raju Pandit Chhetri works on climate change issues and attended the recently concluded COP26 in Glasgow. <img width="80" height="109" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016118/636d14179c7e80680e0a995djpeg.jpg" alt="">Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/"> Think globally in Glasgow, and act locally</a>, Raju Pandit Chhetri

Post-COP26, Nepal’s real work now begins

<figure><img width="800" height="438" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d133b9c7e80680e0a9911jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The avalanche that came off Mt Tukuche in Nepal’s Mustang District on 14 November illustrates the kinds of multi-hazards present in the Himalaya. A dozen students fleeing a school below were injured while escaping, and there were reports of widespread livestock loss. Excessive post-monsoon snowfall could have contributed to the avalanche, which also resulted in flooding on a tributary of the Kali Gandaki.</figcaption></figure>Hazards in the Himalaya do not queue up politely to occur one at a time. More often, they occur together and, when they do, their cumulative effect is greater than the sum of their parts. When floods and landslides happen at once, for instance, the impact of each is intensified by the other. Still, it remains common to approach risk reduction for each hazard individually. In Nepal, and the wider Himalayan region, the coincidence of multiple hazards necessitates a multi-hazard approach to disaster risk reduction.At best, considering one hazard at a time is wishful thinking. At worst, single-hazard approaches reduce the risk of one hazard only to increase the risk from others. To avoid these tradeoffs, a multi-hazard approach manages the connections between hazards to reduce overall risk. Shifting perspective from single- to multi-hazard risk may appear subtle, but our recent research shows the stakes are high. Our team studied three dominant hazards — floods, landslides, and wildfires — and found that many Himalayan residents live in areas highly susceptible to more than one of them. If other hazards (like drought, heat stress, or earthquakes) were added to our study, it is likely that the population exposed to multi-hazards would be even higher. The predictions made by hazard models can vary considerably and their results depend especially on which set of previous hazards they consider, but the message emerging from this research is clear: Since many people in the Himalaya live in multi-hazard environments, managing one hazard at a time could have disastrous consequences. <figure><img width="2501" height="1332" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d133e9c7e80680e0a9912jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Importantly, adopting a multi-hazard approach does not mean making things more complicated. Instead, it can identify synergies to address them together, while providing a basis for collaboration for aligning single hazard management and governance practices that could otherwise conflict. A multi-hazard approach is relatively new, but multi-hazards themselves are already here. They can take many forms. Sometimes, one hazard causes another: In 2015, the Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake caused thousands of landslides and claimed thousands of lives. Or, in February of this year, a <a href="https://www.icimod.org/article/understanding-the-chamoli-flood-cause-process-impacts-and-context-of-rapid-infrastructure-development/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.icimod.org/article/understanding-the-chamoli-flood-cause-process-impacts-and-context-of-rapid-infrastructure-development/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637032361315000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1TMfOVKuNvXo6wVNvXAAsm">rockslide triggered massive flooding</a> in the Chamoli district of Uttarakhand, claiming over 70 lives and damaging multiple hydropower projects. Other times, hazards happen together. For example, this year’s monsoon season caused <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637032361315000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0GCEQeMHKILrZSwBGgTR4n">destructive flooding and landslides</a> in many districts in Nepal (the effects of which were exacerbated by the ongoing pandemic). Without causing another hazard directly, one hazard can worsen the effects of another, such as last year’s widespread forest fires in Nepal that denuded hillsides, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637032361315000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0jHHk_D84gbE7XCdXxb9ld">making the slopes more prone to landslides, mudflows, and flooding</a>. Other threats loom on the horizon. The latest report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes it clear that climate-related multi-hazards will become more common and more intense in the future. Glacial lakes at risk of outburst flooding are growing due to climate change, while changing precipitation patterns could make both seasonal flooding and forest fires more frequent and destructive. These changes interact in complex ways, raising the overall threat from multi-hazards. As climate change intensifies multi-hazards, current patterns of urbanisation will continue to put more people in harm’s way. Our research shows a high level of settlement in areas also prone to multi-hazards; people may be unaware of multi-hazard risk, or immediate concerns for their livelihood overrule potential future risk from catastrophic multi-hazards. In either case, people settle in multi-hazard-prone areas to access economic, healthcare, or educational opportunities. Thus, an important component of reducing risk is in providing sustainable livelihoods in less risky areas. Impoverished people in multi-hazard areas may not have the resources necessary to recover from disaster or to settle in safer areas if those areas have lower levels of access.  <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d13419c7e80680e0a9913jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Gender disparities increase risks to women, and religious minorities may not have equal access to disaster preparedness resources in some places. Multi-hazards are natural events with human effects. Thus, beside technical and governance issues, a multi-hazard approach should consider how multi-hazards multiply the risks faced by already vulnerable populations.With a multi-hazard approach, synergies are possible. For instance, <a href="https://www.iucn.org/sites/dev/files/content/documents/bioengineering_brochure_hr.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.iucn.org/sites/dev/files/content/documents/bioengineering_brochure_hr.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637032361315000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2Lq1Jfzk5Xb_CeV6qBLNbk">soil bioengineering</a> is an established set of techniques in Nepal that focuses on conditions — vegetation, drainage, and sediment — that contribute to multiple hazards. By focusing on the conditions where hazards intersect, practices like bioengineering could be more suitable for a multi-hazard environment than those that focus on reducing the risk of a specific hazard alone.Without a multi-hazard approach, reducing the risk from one hazard could increase the risk of another. In the wake of this year’s fire season, for example, unvegetated buffers around developed areas may seem like a good option for preventing fire damage to structures. But these areas more easily erode, potentially contributing to landslides or mudflows. Similarly, slope stabilisation to prevent landslides, especially around road cuts, can increase surface runoff and exacerbate flooding. Engineering approaches are important, but multi-hazard risk reduction is not just a technical problem. Governance issues are at the root of both major opportunities and challenges for mitigating multi-hazard risk. A significant obstacle to adopting a multi-hazard approach is existing mandates for governing bodies to manage single hazards in isolation. For example, federalisation in Nepal gave the Ministry of Home Affairs the mandate to manage forest fire risk, but the mitigation of floods and landslides, which interact with forest fires, often remains at the municipal level. These divisions can lead to conflicts between agencies, while a multi-hazard approach can align mandates otherwise focused on single hazards. Nepal’s Disaster Risk Reduction Strategic Action Plan is already taking steps in this direction.  <figure><img width="4940" height="3965" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d13449c7e80680e0a9914jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In addition to managing connections between hazards, governance practices aimed at reducing multi-hazard risk can facilitate two other forms of collaboration: across borders, and between people, residents and otherwise, with different forms of expertise.First, current collaboration across borders in the Himalaya should be expanded and strengthened. Both hazards and people cross borders, so multi-hazard mitigation must do the same. This last summer, for instance, a landslide-dammed lake in the Rongxer basin in China <a href="https://www.icimod.org/article/the-melamchi-flood-disaster/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.icimod.org/article/the-melamchi-flood-disaster/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637032361315000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2EsX51_SbSWuFjpxRyRC6D">threatened Nepali settlements downstream</a> along the Tama Kosi River with flooding. Further along the same river, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-kosis-sorrow-and-scope/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-kosis-sorrow-and-scope/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637032361315000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0D5xTZ_9lCZdd17ab60kVm">sedimentation in Nepal is one of many factors</a> contributing to downstream flooding in Bihar, India. The establishment of cross-border early warning agreements is an important way to reduce these risks and is a first step toward connecting upstream and downstream risk reduction through a multi-hazard approach.Second, the collaboration between people with different types of knowledge about hazard risk — including technical, development, and local experts — is essential for ensuring the success of risk reduction programs. An inspiring precedent for this kind of collaboration is the development of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637032361315000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0m8l5RSFN5WSy2wB1oMXhv">jholmal</a> natural fertiliser and pesticide. The development of jholmal required combining local practices with the work of technical specialists and efforts to reduce chemical runoff and farming costs to create a cost-effective formula easily communicated to and replicated by the region’s residents and other local experts. This collaborative and multi-pronged approach can serve as model for mitigating multi-hazard risk. A focus on multi-hazards does not contradict the need to reduce the risk associated with individual hazards; instead, a multi-hazard approach is an opportunity to align risk reduction measures to avoid tradeoffs and find synergies. Adopting a multi-hazard approach may present technical or governance challenges but the opportunity is clear: in the face of ongoing climate change and urbanisation, effective disaster risk reduction in environments such as Nepal, the Himalaya, and other mountainous regions necessitates a multi-hazard approach.Jack Rusk is a member of the <a href="https://urbanhimalaya.yale.edu/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://urbanhimalaya.yale.edu/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637032361315000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1cdFH8tcfgFtKCY-vVpPAE">Urban Himalaya</a> research team. Urban Himalaya is an international, interdisciplinary, collaborative research partnership that seeks to understand urbanization and vulnerability in the Himalaya. Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969721051147" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969721051147&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637032361315000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3MqefP8QtVEj91d-Qi1u3b">recent research</a> on multi-hazards was published in the journal Science of the Total Environment.

Multipronged response to Nepal’s multi-hazards

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161132/636d19939c7e80680e0ac827jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="664" height="450"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Even as Nepal tries to recover from the impact of the pandemic, the country’s economic indicators released this week by the central bank show dismal performance in the first two months of the fiscal year.The report by the Nepal Rastra Bank shows that Nepal’s foreign currency reserves fell to $11.1 in mid-September, 6.6% below the figure for last year, this is enough to pay for only 8 months of total imports.Even more worrying is that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/defying-predictions-nepals-remittances-still-high/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">overseas remittances that had held steady despite the pandemic</a> for the past two years have now started declining. Nepalis abroad sent home Rs155 billion in the past year, which is 6.3% below the same period last year.Despite the pandemic, remittances had risen by 8.1% in fiscal year 2019-2020. Experts attributed that to overseas workers sending money home as the economic crisis hit families back home, and not necessarily due to higher earnings.The concurrent decrease in foreign currency reserves to finance <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/blood-sweat-tears/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s imports, mainly of petroleum</a>, food and other commodities, is seen as an indicator of an impending economic crisis. The main reason for the current downturn is shrinking remittances, which prop up Nepal’s economy.Indeed, compared to 2019-2020, the past year has seen a steep 76% increase in imports to a record Rs352 billion, mainly due to a rise in the import of petroleum products, gold, silver and other items, according to Rastra Bank figures.Even though exports went up by 115% in the same period to Rs44.4 billion, it did not put much of a dent on the trade deficit which has risen to Rs270 billion in the past two months of the fiscal year. This represents a 71% increase in the trade gap compared to last year.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-less-and-less-able-to-feed-itself/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">growing asymmetry between imports and exports</a> means that the country’s balance of payments situation is now Rs83.4 billion in the red — up from Rs38.7 billion in July.With the alarm bells ringing, the government has drastically reduced the amount of money Nepalis can officially exchange before traveling abroad from $1,500 to $200-500. This week, further austerity measures were announced, including a ban on the purchase of vehicles for official use.The negative trend in economic indicators could not have come at a worse time. Just as the country was recovering from the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">economic impact of the pandemic</a>, it was hit by extreme rainfall this month which killed more than 110 people across the country, and destroyed up to one-third of the country’s ready to harvest rice crop.The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that nearly 90,000 hectares of rice fields were severely damaged by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-monsoon-rain-ruins-nepals-crops/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the unseasonal post-monsoon rains</a>, and paddy losses will amount to more than Rs8 billion. Lumbini Province is said to have suffered the worst, with more than half of the initially reported damage nationwide.The unprecedented destruction comes just as farmers and officials were optimistic about a healthy rice harvest because of a healthy monsoon season. Rice is such an important component of Nepal’s economy that it will impact on the GDP, economic growth, and have a knock-on effect on the trade deficit because more rice will now need to be imported.Last year Nepal produced 5.6 million tonnes of rice from 1.4 million hectares of paddy fields, up 1.3% from the previous year. However, rising income levels of Nepalis has also meant that rice consumption is growing, and the country had to import Rs 51 billion worth of rice last year, compared to only Rs23 billion in 2019.Analysts say the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/are-nepalis-really-eating-more-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sharp increase in rice imports</a> cannot be attributed only to rising consumption, explaining it by the rise in demand from Nepal’s breweries and the dramatic rise in domestic beer consumption.

Nepal’s remittances, forex reserves drop

<figure><img width="3000" height="1405" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18f59c7e80680e0ac7f3jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photos: RSS</figcaption></figure>Still reeling from a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-the-deluge-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disastrous monsoon season</a>, Nepal has been hit with unseasonal downpours that have dumped more rain on rice crops that were ready for harvest across the country.. More than 100mm of rain fell in 24 hours in most parts of western Nepal, which has been the worst affected so far as a late-monsoon depression from the Bay of Bengal was swept into the Himalaya by a westerly system.The Indian state of Uttarakhand and Nepal’s Far-Western Province on either side of the Mahakali River have been badly affected by floods, landslides and submerged rice fields.The border Mahakali River reached record-high levels on Tuesday, destroying roads and bridges. More than 24 people are feared dead in a village in Bajhang hit by a landslide. Another andslide killed two children Dharan. <figure><img width="432" height="324" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18f79c7e80680e0ac7f4jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1800" height="1350" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18fa9c7e80680e0ac7f5jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1134" height="629" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18fe9c7e80680e0ac7f6jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Nepal received 15% more rain than average this monsoon, which officially ended two weeks ago, according to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. The increased precipitation, including in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manang valley</a> in Nepal’s rain shadow brought with it flashfloods that caused major damage in seven hydropower plants, and Nepal’s most expensive project for supplying water to Kathmandu <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/still-chasing-the-melamchi-mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Melamchi Water Supply</a>.Except in the landslide-hit areas, farmers across Nepal had been encouraged by a healthy monsoon and were looking forward to a bumper rice harvest. Early reports said standing crops were submerged, and harvested rice stalks were destroyed right across Nepal.Many roads in the country have been blocked due to floods from the continuous rain, including the Butwal-Bardaghat section of the East-West Highway. Water levels in the Mahakali, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Karnali</a> and Seti rivers in western Nepal have risen to dangerous levels, putting riverside settlements at risk, with many villages on the banks inundated. <figure><img width="3600" height="1667" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19019c7e80680e0ac7f7jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="3092" height="2061" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19069c7e80680e0ac7f8jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Two hundred houses in the Bhimdatta and Dodhara Chandani municipalities near the Indian border in Far-Western Province are reported to have been flooded.According to the Department of Water and Meteorology, 196 out of 225 rainfall measurement centers in the country have recorded heavy rain in the past few days.Senior meteorologist of the Department, Pratibha Manandhar explains: “The low-pressure systems in central India and the Bay of Bengal moving north and the westerly winds becoming active is the reason we are experiencing such heavy rainfall so late in the season.”Generally, anything more than 100mm of rain within 24 hours is considered to be extreme precipitation. In the Far-western Province, Dadeldhura has already recorded 211mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours, Dipayal received 166mm in a sustained cloudburst, Ghorahi got 133mm, and Bhairawa 112mm. (see map, below) In Nepal, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monsoon rains</a> usually stop by the end of September, as the prevailing winds switch direction to blow in from the west. Climate experts are surprised by just how erratic this year’s monsoon has been.  <figure><img width="1128" height="578" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d190a9c7e80680e0ac7f9jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Total rainfall between 8:45 AM 18 October to 8:45AM 19 October in various parts of Nepal. Red areas show highest precipitation in western Nepal. Source: DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND METEROLOGY</figcaption></figure>Water expert Madhukar Upadhya writes on his Twitter account: ‘As soon as we were saying that monsoon has ended, I find it surprising to see such high levels of rain, even capable of causing loss of life and property.’However, Manandhar from the Department of Water and Meteorology says that this kind of post-monsoon period is not unprecedented. She says: “There are weather variations from year to year, so it is not surprising to see rains so late into the season. Usually we get post-monsoon rains when the monsoon itself has heavy precipitation.”  The Department predicts more rain till Wednesday evening especially in Lumbini, Karnali, the Far Western Province, and in many places in Province 1, and gradually diminishing by the end of the week as the westerlies hold sway. However, a few places are still expected to see thunderstorms, strong winds, and heavy rainfall.This untimely rain has severely impacted on the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-of-rice-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">country’s rice harvest</a>. Madhav Prasad Poudel from the Department of Agriculture, says, “Unseasonal rain like this affects both standing crops and also those that have been cut and are left in the fields to dry. The water makes even the straw rot.”   <figure><img width="1500" height="1015" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d190d9c7e80680e0ac7fajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Satellite radar image taken on Tuesday at noon of heavy precipitation over northern India and Nepal. The westerlies are now pushing the system to the west, and the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology says the rains will taper off by Wednesday afternoon.</figcaption></figure>Although the Met Department forecast rain, the information did not reach farmers. Poudel adds that the rain has affected the paddy harvest adversely, but the exact damage has not yet been determined. Sitaram Chaudhary, a farmer from Dhangadi, said that the floods have severely affected the quality of paddy, rice, and straw and even vegetable farms. The government had been predicting records harvests of rice this year because of the favorable monsoon, but this week’s deluge may affect those hopes. This also puts tens of thousands of farmers at the risk of food insecurity. However, agriculturist <a href="https://www.facebook.com/rajendra.uprety" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajendra Uprety at the Ministry of Agriculture of Province 1 </a>says the damage from rains may have been exaggerated, and Nepali farmers are used to dealing with heavy rains and high winds affecting ready to harvest rice crops.  "Of course, there has been damage, but there are ways to salvage rice stalks even from submerged fields," he says, "wet stalks need to be kept in a dry place, the paddy fields need to be drained, and the still standing crop should be harvested only after the rains stop. And we should all be helping each other instead of spreading alarmist information." Rice is grown in over 1.4 million hectares in Nepal. Last year, the country produced over 5 million metric tons of paddy, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/are-nepalis-really-eating-more-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">still imported about Rs51 billion worth of rice</a> to meet growing demand. With this week’s late monsoon floods and unexpected rain, the 2021 harvest is most likely to be below target.

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