On the evening of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster">15 June 2021</a>, Baburam Bhandari was sitting down for dinner with his family, when the police sent out a warning about a flood on the Melamchi River.&nbsp;
The family quickly started packing, but the debris flow soon engulfed the house. While Bhandari, his wife, daughter-in-law, and grandson survived, the flood took away his son Madhav.&nbsp;
“All I have now is a piece of paper,” says Bhandari, holding up his land ownership certificate (pictured above last week). "Everything else, my son, my home, my crops, they are all gone.”
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/the-monsoon-mess-in-melamchi">The flood</a> claimed the lives of 25 people in Helambu, 360 families were displaced, their homes and farms destroyed. Downstream in Melamchi Bazar, two motorway bridges, six suspension bridges, 41 government buildings and 322 houses were destroyed with losses estimated at Rs57.3 billion.
Nepal sustains infrastructure damage worth 2% of its GDP annually, amounting to Rs80 billion to calamities like this. The state spends Rs 700 million in reconstruction. &nbsp;
A 2021 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/narrow-escape-for-melamchi-fact-finding-team">postmortem</a> of the Melamchi flood by ICIMOD blamed extreme weather caused by climate change and human factors, concluding that glacial moraines collapsed and washed down older sediment deposits.&nbsp;
Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state"> In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale
The Nepal Engineering Association also concluded that the flood was due to a localised cloudburst at the headwaters of the Melamchi River with slopes destablised by the 2015 earthquake contributing.&nbsp;
“While rainfall was evenly distributed over monsoon seasons in the past, it now rains heavily in short localised bursts due to climate change,” explains geologist Basanta Raj Adhikari at Pulchok Engineering Campus. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Lack of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya">accurate local weather forecast and early warning</a> has also been cited as contributing to disaster-related loss and damage.&nbsp;
Floods similar to Melamchi hit eastern Nepal in June this year, causing damage worth Rs121 billion, affecting 15 hydropower plants and washing away highways in Panchthar and Taplejung. But Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology was still predicting that the monsoon was a few days away.
What caused the deadly flash flood was that a later westerly front blocked the progress on the monsoon, forcing it to dump the rain over eastern Nepal.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) says 34 people have been killed in the first 23 days of the monsoon, with disaster-induced losses amounting to Rs10 billion.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally">At COP27 in Glasgow</a>, there was a proposal for developed countries to help climate vulnerable nations by compensating for climate change-induced loss and damage. However, this fund has not got anywhere due to a lack of commitment from rich countries. The Biden administration in the US has flatly refused to fund loss and damage.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/we-have-not-respected-the-fragility-of-the-himalaya">“We have not respected the fragility of the Himalaya”</a>, Nepali Times
But there are things Nepal can do <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi">with its own resources</a> to adapt to the climate crisis. Rajendra Raj Sharma Nepal, formerly with the Ministry of Physical Infrastructure and Transport says substandard infrastructure and their location in high-risk areas adds to the loss of life and property and the cost of reconstruction and rehabilitation after disasters.&nbsp;
“The mayors themselves want the work done before the assessment is complete to cut costs,” says Sharma.&nbsp;
The National Planning Commission's ‘Sustainable Development Goals, Status and Roadmap: 2016-2030' states that physical infrastructure construction must be strong, well-planned, safe, and sustainable. In reality they are anything but.
Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Strategic Plan of Action (2018-2030) focuses on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible">disaster risk reduction</a>, relief and rescue.
The head of the NDRRMA Anil Pokharel says there is little hope that the West will keep its pledge for a loss and damage fund, but feels successive governments have also not done enough. He says, “Houses, roads, and bridges are a priority but as much attention needs to be paid to the suffering of families affected by disasters.”
All this is no relief at all for the family of Baburam Bhandari and others in Melamchi Valley two years after the disastrous flood that upturned their lives.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/better-forecasting-reduces-flood-impact-in-nepal">Better forecasting reduces flood impact in Nepal</a>

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Lost and damaged

Most disasters strike without warning. But dengue fever which spreads when infected mosquitos breed in monsoon puddles, is largely predictable and preventable. Densely populated Kathmandu with stagnant pools of water has all the ingredients for another outbreak like the deadly one in 2022. Last year there were about<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/new-dengue-outbreak-likely-this-monsoon" target="_blank"> 55,000 infections and 88 fatalities</a> officially reported across Nepal in its biggest dengue outbreak yet, the real figure is probably higher. Hospitals were out of capacity, over-medication was rampant, and almost every house in Kathmandu had multiple members struck down with infection. This year, Nepal had already seen <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/health/2023/07/08/dengue-spreads-to-66-districts-one-person-dead-over-1-200-test-positive" target="_blank">over 1,000 dengue infections </a>by end-June. Starting in Dharan where one person has already died, the disease has now reached most of the 77 districts. Even so, many cases are never reported, and many recuperate at their homes. Furthermore, 80% of dengue cases are asymptomatic. “We are not even at the peak of the dengue season, and cases are already surging. It is very likely that this will further increase as rains begin to dwindle post-monsoon,” warns Sher Bahadur Pun, virologist at the Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital in Kathmandu. “Nepal’s poor surveillance and record keeping also means diseases like dengue are seriously under-reported.”&nbsp; Lack of public awareness about dengue management and prevention adds to the problem. A third of dengue patients admitted to Teku Hospital last year <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/as-covid-abates-nepal-sees-dengue-outbreak" target="_blank">did not even know</a> that the disease is mosquito-borne and spreads in the daytime.&nbsp; “At least this wasn’t the case with Covid-19, but with dengue, people struggled to adopt the correct precautions due to lack of knowledge,” explains Pun. “Even more alarming: once infected, people took strong medications like painkillers and antibiotics unaware that they are ineffective and often even harmful in dengue.”&nbsp; Although there is no specific medication for dengue, doctors recommend paracetamol to ease the fever and enough fluids to replenish the body. Dengue has no cure.&nbsp; Dengue was first reported in Nepal in 2004, but it was not until 2019 that it spread like wildfire in major urban centres. Two years of Covid lockdowns significantly reduced the caseload after the 2019 outbreak, but last year, it struck again.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/new-dengue-outbreak-likely-this-monsoon">New dengue outbreak likely this monsoon</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230717150716_97f01f95d37cc29c4c2a68ba54185635449829fa53a3064d0b83ba5714263db9.png" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20230717150716_97f01f95d37cc29c4c2a68ba54185635449829fa53a3064d0b83ba5714263db9" data-rendition-name="original" width="1072" height="577" loading="lazy" alt="Dengue graph NT"> <figcaption>Trend of dengue cases in Nepal 2006 - 2023 June, SOURCE: MoHP Situation Update</figcaption> </figure>  But even as dengue starts to spread in Kathmandu Valley, elected local officials do not seem to be too concerned. When the Ministry of Health and Population called on all local unit representatives in the Valley to discuss the outbreak on 9 July, 12 out of the 18 units <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/health/2023/07/11/dengue-search-and-destroy-campaign-to-be-launched-in-kathmandu-valley" target="_blank">avoided the meeting altogether.</a> Although there are some fumigation and dengue search and destroy campaigns <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/health/2023/07/11/dengue-search-and-destroy-campaign-to-be-launched-in-kathmandu-valley" target="_blank">set to be launched in Kathmandu</a> soon, with the monsoon already started, it may be a case of too little <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/state-of-malaise" target="_blank">too late</a>. It should have started before the onset of the monsoon. “Though not as many as last year, we are already seeing a worrying number of mosquitoes near areas with stagnant water. And when they fly into homes, chances are the virus is already spreading from those infected,” explains Pun.&nbsp; This negligence and delay in action comes despite repeated warnings from experts. Officials knew far in advance that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/new-dengue-outbreak-likely-this-monsoon" target="_blank">last year’s virus is still in mosquito larvae, waiting for the monsoon</a>, and yet, preventive measures, emergency preparedness, and capacity building were ignored. The risk of dengue fever will rise in the coming months of August and September, although some public health experts say serious dengue outbreaks seem to happen after a gap of two years. With climate change, mosquitos are moving up the mountains in Nepal, bringing mosquito-borne disease like malaria, encephalitis and dengue higher. The number of cases officially recorded between January and June this year is nine times higher than last year. Districts like Sankhuwasabha are on the <a href="https://edcd.gov.np/uploads/resource/64a3d5414aad6.pdf#:~:text=This%20figure%20was%20more%20than,of%20cases%20reported%20in%202019.&amp;text=As%20of%2030th%20June%2C%202023,listed%20details%20in%20Figure%202." target="_blank">top-ten list</a> for most cases reported, even though it is in the high mountains, and indicating how global warming is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms" target="_blank">pushing mosquito breeding grounds further north.</a> Bagmati is once again the hardest-hit province, possibly due to higher population density. Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dengue-days-are-here-to-stay"> Dengue days are here to stay</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230717150716_b1a8b5c7b8e50f5e388f04a41877f2520ffa8f334c04343b357fd034d4166e6d.png" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20230717150716_b1a8b5c7b8e50f5e388f04a41877f2520ffa8f334c04343b357fd034d4166e6d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1088" height="433" loading="lazy" alt="Dengue graph"> <figcaption>Dengue cases reported by province in 2023 January to June.  SOURCE: MoHP Situation Update</figcaption> </figure>  Tackling Dengue: what does it really take? Ugonnaya Caleb-Ugwuowo recalls treating children and pregnant women struck down with dengue fever in a local hospital in Lagos. The Nigerian doctor and public health expert specialises in managing outbreaks, and says she often felt helpless at being unable to correctly diagnose and treat them due to lack of facilities. Nepal could learn from Nigeria's experience. Dengue fever is endemic in almost all states in Nigeria. “Although the country is still struggling, the challenges and epidemics Nigeria has faced over the years have shaped our understanding of what it takes to tackle outbreaks like the ones Nepal faced last year and in 2019,” says Ugonnaya.&nbsp; It starts with surveillance, she says, adding: “The government in Nepal should, as a matter of urgency, conduct dengue surveys in all provinces to assess the proportion and magnitude of different <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/dengue-viruses-22400925/#:~:text=The%20Dengue%20Serotypes,antibodies%20in%20human%20blood%20serum." target="_blank">dengue serotypes</a> circulating freely. Following this, dengue should be made reportable from all local health institutions directly into the national health information system." Dengue fever for the first time, though debilitating, often does no harm. But getting it a second time with a different serotype poses a significantly higher risk of the disease progressing to haemorrhagic fever, where blood thins out and can start leaking from veins, causing potentially fatal internal bleeding. This is what makes serotype surveys so important. A <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/jtm/taad034/7087081?redirectedFrom=fulltext" target="_blank">study</a> aiming to report dengue serotypes seen in Kathmandu during last year’s outbreak showed DEN-1 and DEN-3 to be the dominant serotypes, with only negligible cases of DEN-2 reported. But such studies should be conducted nationwide, so that the risk of infection with other serotypes can be correctly determined. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, both of which have reported elevated levels of dengue infections this year, have direct flights into Nepal. “Although the inflow of infected tourists also poses a great threat, the greater concern should be the mosquitoes in and around places where these tourists go, like airports, temples and major tourist sites,” warns Pun. If barring flights is not an option, vector control is the best way to minimise transmission. For this, fumigation and dengue search and destroy efforts should be concentrated in tourist sites first. Simple source reduction strategies like covering open water containers, using insecticides in canals, parks and fields exist, but deploying genetically modified mosquitoes to reduce the population of disease carriers can also control vector-borne diseases. Caleb-Ugwuowo adds that Nepal already has a decentralised framework of healthcare, so proper surveillance is possible. More importantly, the two previous outbreaks have given experts an idea of what needs to be done: capacity building in hospitals, sanitation and drainage facilities, public awareness, and emergency preparedness before the disease strikes. Pun agrees: “We must learn from other countries as well as from our own past experience, and act to contain this outbreak. Things will get progressively worse in the next few weeks, so there is no time to beat around the bush, especially with dengue already knocking at our doors.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms">Mosquitoes move up mountains as the earth warms</a>, Sonia Awale

Dengue danger returns with monsoon

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has declared that the southwest monsoon entered eastern Nepal promptly on schedule, and will advance over the whole country in a week. This was a relief because weather models had suggested the onset of the rains would be delayed by at least 10 days. Let us hope simulations were also wrong about deficient rainfall this monsoon. News of the arrival of the rains could not have come sooner. So far, this June has been the hottest month on record in Nepal, with half of the country’s population mostly in the plains reeling under <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat">heat stress</a>. Wells had gone dry in parts of the Chure and Tarai, and ritual frog weddings were being performed for rain. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world">It's getting hotten on the roof of the world</a>, Kunda Dixit This year’s El Niño effect should be a warning about things to come, as the ocean and atmosphere heat up globally. Here in Nepal, we must now broaden the scope of disaster planning beyond droughts, floods and landslides to lethal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal">‘wet bulb’</a> combinations of temperature and humidity. In the next decades, unliveable heat waves in the plains could force mass <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/unthinkable-in-the-current-climate">migration of people to northern latitudes and higher altitudes</a>. For Nepal, this could mean a future reversal of population movement back from the plains to the mountains. But Nepal’s rulers cannot pass all the blame for chronic food insecurity on climate breakdown. The Karnali is food deficit because of decades of state neglect, and climate change-induced drought just puts farmers under added pressure. Crop failure due to lack of irrigation and agricultural input in turn will worsen malnutrition among children, and increase the push factor for outmigration of men. Not all disasters are sudden, Nepal must also prepare for slow-motion calamities like these. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/multimedia/tara-pariyar-s-karnali">Our coverage from Jumla</a> and Kalikot of Karnali Province in this edition shows how investment in rural irrigation can transform the lives of farmers, making them more resilient to face extreme weather. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/women-and-water">climate crisis is a water crisis</a>, and year-round access to water will improve food availability, raise household income, reduce drudgery for women, and allow Nepalis to adapt to climate change. It is common sense. Why didn’t we think of that before? The DHM and South Asian Climate Outlook Forum forecast normal to below-normal rainfall this year, and an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures across South Asia. Rainfall in western Nepal is expected to be 60% below normal, and 30% deficient in the rest of the country.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023061414068_a58db96050cb747bbcd4bf46e1507af613ea7bf0fa4700a0a4178da2e41130cd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2023061414068_a58db96050cb747bbcd4bf46e1507af613ea7bf0fa4700a0a4178da2e41130cd" data-rendition-name="original" width="3300" height="1950" loading="lazy" alt="Monsoon 2023"><figcaption>Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has projected below-average rainfall this monsoon. </figcaption></figure>  But those are averages, and we also have to be prepared for cloudbursts of the kind that triggered the deadly <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/still-chasing-the-melamchi-mirage">Melamchi flood on 15 June 2021</a>. Robust early warning systems and real-time localised information systems are vital to save lives and infrastructure. Again, we cannot blame loss of life along settlements in flood-prone high-risk areas on the climate crisis. We cannot call them ‘natural disasters’ when the real culprit is bad planning and poor preparedness for calamities that are certain to happen. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">Climate smarter HImalayan infrastructure</a>, Sonia Awale The rampant building spree of mega-infrastructure, primarily hydropower projects along Nepal’s major rivers, without proper Environmental Impact Assessment also spells disaster. So does <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-nation-built-on-sand">illegal extraction of riverbed products</a> along the Chure. But perhaps the most glaring example of environmental terrorism is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/don-t-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides">haphazard road construction</a> triggering slope failure and disrupting water supply. There are things that are happening globally over which we have little control. The Paris Agreement to cap average global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050 is now dead in the water. Last week, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere hit a record 422ppm, and at this rate we are looking at an increase of 2°C or more in the coming decade. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-high-places">polar regions and the ice-caps of the Alps and the Himalaya </a>are already melting at unprecedented rates. New York experienced <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-the-air-in-bhaktapur-so-bad">air quality</a> worse than Kathmandu last week as Canadian wildfires sent smoke plumes across North America. Pakistan suffered catastrophic nationwide floods last year due to heavier than usual monsoon rains and melting glaciers. For us in Nepal, there is no option but to be prepared for what we know is coming. Rescue and relief after a disaster, as is often the case, is too late. Preparations for prevention for this monsoon should have started last winter. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/political-environment">Political environment</a>, Editorial A strong environmental protection strategy requires long-term vision and commitment, it needs politicians who think beyond immediately visible populist actions to boost vote banks. As with everything else in Nepal, the answer to disaster preparedness is a smarter and more accountable government. Sonia Awale

When it rains, it pours

Man Maya crouches on the steps of her concrete house. The house is covered in rough cement plaster. Stark grey now from years of weathering. The colour of the sky above her is a shade darker than her house. “Don’t you feel cold on your legs?” she yells at me while putting her palms together to make the shape of a shell to return my greeting. Her hair is fully gray-- cottony. An imitation of the cloud accumulating above her head. I laugh and pull the end of the sleeves of my jumper all the way down to cover my fingertips. Aja’s jumper, actually. I have been wearing it since he passed last month. How else do you cling to a dead person, but in their belongings? I must make a weird image to Man Maya-- a woman in an oversized man’s jumper and no trousers. She probably thinks I have no trousers. The jumper hangs below my shorts but Man Maya does not know that. I am suddenly blushing because I am conscious of her age and experience and I kind of want her to know I am wearing shorts and that I am not being disrespectful. But I keep walking because the thought of walking up to her and telling her so is even more embarrassing. I walk past her house and downhill towards the river. And always, the river brings me surprises. She seems to attract so much self-destruction. This time, it is the construction workers.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230507080524_f1b7ab4975bc796b3ba2fd313e8d0b673c065d5a94c2eac9a43a04b107b030bd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20230507080524_f1b7ab4975bc796b3ba2fd313e8d0b673c065d5a94c2eac9a43a04b107b030bd" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Hijjya River"> <figcaption>Construction work at Hijyya River on 2 May 2023. </figcaption> </figure>  It has rained the entire week, but there is no swollen river below the bridge as is the rainy season norm. The river is fast downgrading itself into a stream. And like Man Maya’s hair, she too imitates the colour of the sky. The water has turned murky, as it does after rains, only, it has no might. Against the twilight, construction men sit on wheelbarrows, sharing a cigarette, flanked by heaps of mud and rocks. We are building a road that will connect to the main road, they explain. But isn’t there a road already that does the same, I want to ask. Then I hold back as the men start to sermonise about how roads are the key to development. Upsteam, the Angel’s Trumpet plants lay wilting on the dirt. The men explain they cut it down to make way for the road. Next to it is a stack of bamboo shoots, slashed down to its roots.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230507080528_981567632ae3587a194d0c429d2c9767273f097d7f1d93852372ab46665e5ac2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20230507080528_981567632ae3587a194d0c429d2c9767273f097d7f1d93852372ab46665e5ac2" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Construction at Hijjya River"> </figure>  We can still use the bamboo for building, one of the men says. They have built a temporary shelter nearby for the duration of the construction. Downstream, they’re building stalls for what will be a vegetable market. They have torn down part of the hill to build. They boast about how much hard work it was and how they are stronger from doing that kind of work. “Nani, go to the Shiva temple and kneel for blessings,” one of them says. I nod and keep walking past the Shiva who now seems to lure only gentrification. My uninterrupted evening walks have run their course as the quiet pathways give in. Every other walk, there is one more fresh construction happening. Every other walk, there is one more creek that has gone dry (pictured, below).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230507080528_6f0cea842a9c5c1fb6ccfe2245b8c8e2f99ff04f1a41f4ba0e55d520ef7f0a7e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20230507080528_6f0cea842a9c5c1fb6ccfe2245b8c8e2f99ff04f1a41f4ba0e55d520ef7f0a7e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="creek"> </figure>  My legs, now steeped in the muscle memory of this trail, might soon have to learn a new one. My daily route brings me back in full circle before Man Maya’s house. She is still on the steps of her house, now, a cigarette clenched between her fingers. I take courage and sit down on the pavement near her. Her heels are cracked and she wears no slippers. Before us stretches the last remaining open space in the village. Man Maya is the talk of the village-- how she went from being the owner of half the village to now being slumped in debt. “I sold,” she says. “The money seemed good at first, and then we couldn’t stop selling. I had to stop at the house.” “What do you think of the Hijjya River?” I ask. “Oh,” she says. “It’s a dying river.” “But it wasn’t always like that, right?” I probe. “My mother talks about the days when she was a child and they would carry her in a basket to Budanilkantha temple and the river would gurgle angrily as they walked past it.” “Indeed. Hijjya was the angry river. It was proud. It is where we all went to do our washing. In winter, it shone with clear water and in summer, it was always serene with the ducks, bamboo plants and the Angel’s trumpets thriving wildly on the banks. In the monsoon, always angry. Like the women in this village,” she lets out a laugh. “But all women wither and we also die. And this river is also dying. Did you see those men? So excited about building, building, building. Men like that bought my ancestral land too, and look how many houses have grown here in the stead of trees? It is making me go blind,” she laughs aloud and a whiff of stale alcohol sweeps past my nostrils. For a moment, I try to conjure the village of Man Maya’s childhood. A mud and brick house built by her ancestors, where we now sit, overlooking open grazing grounds for cows, green fields, tall trees, wild flowers and goats and cows and dogs and cats and birds. Before us, in the small patch of green now, a black puppy chases two kids and the mother goat bleats away and stares. “Are you okay, Man Maya Didi? I will be heading home,” I say. “Huss, don’t worry,” she says. “The river will get angry again when it must. All we can do is to wait and live that anger.” Suburban Tales is a monthly column in Nepali Times based on real people (with some names changed) in Pratibha’s life.

Pratibha Tuladhar

Where rivers are not the Phoenix

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413110/63722ea49c7e80680e0c24d5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2667" height="1500"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-affects-himalayan-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">annual paddy planting</a> season is upon us, and the sculpted contours of rice terraces mirror the clouds as farmers wade into the submerged fields.Across Nepal on Wednesday communities came together knee-deep in mud to transplant the first paddy seedlings on watered terraces.There was traditional mud splashing, much singing and dancing to Nepali folk tunes and a traditional feast of dahi chiura as they celebrated the beginning of this year's rice cycle that is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">interwoven with the Valley's festivals</a>.This golden hour drone photo of Balkhu (above) strikingly juxtaposes the urban sprawl that has encroached on land owned by Tribhuvan University and currently farmed by locals. Some of these plots are gradually being used to construct new buildings and modern facilities for university students. The lower part of this photo shows what Kathmandu Valley looked like during monsoon paddy plantation in the past decades.The other aerial photos capture <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-sets-ambitious-target-for-food-sufficiency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rice planting</a> along the Bagmati in Khokana (below). These are the last few remaining patches of paddy that remain untouched by Kathmandu's relentless urban expansion.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413110/63722ea79c7e80680e0c24d6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1046"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413110/63722eab9c7e80680e0c24d7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413110/63722eaf9c7e80680e0c24d8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="2000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722eb39c7e80680e0c24d9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2629" height="1500"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722eb79c7e80680e0c24dajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722ebb9c7e80680e0c24dbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1778" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Further away from the fields, there are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/home-is-where-the-heart-is/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">increasing numbers of settlements</a> and brick factories nearby. The kilns fire moulds of fertile clay deposits of Kathmandu's pre-historic lake to feed the voracious appetite for bricks from buildings that now stand on the former rice fields.The fertile terrace farms of Khokana are disputed, with the government trying to evict farmers to make way for the Kathmandu-Terai expressway.

TERRACES

Nepal’s post-Covid planners need a different tactic. Trying to convince people around the world to visit Nepal because it is there is not working anymore. Maybe they should try to tell them not to visit Nepal. Go away. Scat. Vamos.That way people may actually be more curious about why we are trying to keep them away, what we are hiding, and they will have FOMO and want desperately to visit.Tourists are also told not to visit Nepal in the monsoon. Some guidebook in the 1960s declared the rains as the off-season, and that has stuck. It is time to change that.We need a new slogan, how about: ‘Off to Nepal in the Off Season’, or ‘Visit Nepal: Take a Rain-Cheque’. With our picturesque flooded streets and casinos in every hotel, Nepal can be the combination of Venice and Las Vegas. Only in Nepal can visitors expect the unexpected at every step. Elsewhere in the world it rains cats and dogs, but in Nepal it rains only dogs. And lots of them.Soon the monsoon will be here. And the Tourism Revival Committee should be trying to turn Nepal’s liabilities into asses. For example, Kathmandu can rebrand itself and turn its name into Mudmandu. If Glastonbury can make wallowing in mud pools a tourist attraction, we have far more ooze here. And it is of better quality.Every monsoon, Nepal turns from a dust bowl into a mud bath, and we are wasting the opportunity by not making the best of it.New tv commercials can show monsoon scenes with hit songs like ‘Singing in the Rain’, ‘Have You Ever Seen the Rain’, or ‘A Hard Rain’s A-gonna Fall’ and dub them in Arabic so we can woo visitors from the Gulf countries where it has not rained since dawn of the new millennium. We give them workers, they give us tourists.The Ass has a few free tips for catchy taglines to market the monsoon:‘Nepal: Where It Always Rains on Your Parade’‘Visit Nepal in the Monsoon for a Crash-course in Political Mud-slinging’‘Join the Kathmandu Muckrakers’‘Visit Nepal: Be a Stick-in-the-Mud’‘Watch it rain water buffalos and hippopotami in Chitlang.’  ‘Nepal Airlines: Flies You to the Slime with a Smile’Monsoon is the time for Nepal’s national disease: gastroenteritis. But this explosive affliction need not be a deterrent, it can be turned to our advantage.We can in fact promote diarrhoea, we just need to figure out how to spell it correctly. And that opens up the opportunity for more slogans:&nbsp;<ul> 	<li aria-level="1">Enjoy Runs in the Rain </li> 	<li aria-level="1">Guaranteed Weight Loss Plan: Lose 10kg in 10 Days</li> 	<li aria-level="1">Visit Nepal and Take Part in a Violent Uprising</li> 	<li aria-level="1">Develop a Gut Feeling for Nepal</li></ul>Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/taxman-cometh-2/">Taxman cometh</a>, Ass

Ass s

Muckraking in ‘Mandu

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c179c7e80680e0bd473jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Although Nepal is used to localised rains even post-monsoon, last October saw unprecedented nationwide downpour. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI.</figcaption></figure>On 11 October 2021, Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology declared that the southwest monsoon had officially exited the country. Paddy fields across the country were golden with ripening rice, and Nepalis were getting ready to prepare for the Dasain festival.On 15 October, the Met Office reported that a westerly system had become active, and there was likely to be some rain. Indeed, the frontal system lashed the Indian state of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Uttarakhand</a>, triggering landslides and causing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandus-flash-floods-are-4-decades-in-the-making/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flash floods</a>.Nepal is used to localised rains even after the monsoon ends, but this was the first time in 12 years that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">there was widespread nationwide rain in October</a>. And it was not just ordinary showers, the cloudbursts dumped more than 500mm of rain in Dadeldhura on 17-19 October. Sunsari got nearly 400mm in just 24 hours on 19-20 October.Landslides and floods killed over 120 people across the country, 28 are still missing. Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture had predicted paddy harvests to exceed target because of a healthy monsoon, but the unexpected rain in October cost nearly Rs12 billion in damage to the rice crop, reducing Nepal’s GDP by 0.6%. Sudurpaschim Province alone <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-monsoon-rain-ruins-nepals-crops/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lost up to one-third of paddy that was ready for harvest</a>. <figure><img width="597" height="321" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c199c7e80680e0bd474jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>24-hour rainfall 18-19 October. Source: DHM</figcaption></figure>Roads, bridges, irrigation schemes and hydropower plants were damaged or destroyed. There was $85 million damage to 26 hydroelectric schemes.     Since then, climate scientists and meteorologists have been scratching their heads to figure out what happened, and why there were not more accurate weather forecasts about the severity of the unseasonal precipitation.A new paper ‘<a href="http://isetnepal.org.np/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Early-Warning-System-in-October-2021-Rainfall-Final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Missed Opportunities in Utilisation of Weather Forecasts: An Analysis of the October 2021 Disaster in Nepal</a>’ by risk reduction experts Dinanath Bhandari and Ajaya Dixit investigates what happened, if it could have been foreseen, and how it can be prevented in future.The authors look at the challenge of predicting post-monsoon and winter precipitation, and how <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the global climate crisis is affecting rainfall patterns</a> that used to be fairly regular in the past. The paper analyses precipitation data since 1971 to show that total post-monsoon rains have gone down all over Nepal except parts of the trans-Himalaya.‘Existing meteorological stations are inadequate to cover the diversity of Nepal’s microclimates, and the high mountain and remote regions have fewer stations than required for climate trend analysis,’ the paper notes. <figure><img width="592" height="318" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c1a9c7e80680e0bd475jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>24-hour rainfall October 19-20. Source: DHM</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="592" height="318" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c1c9c7e80680e0bd476jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>24-hour rainfall October 20-21. Source: DHM</figcaption></figure>The authors also look into why there was widespread damage and human casualties despite weather alerts through media. Although the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology did predict rain, the messaging did not include location and time-specific impact-based forecasting, they say.Although the National Disaster Risk Management and Mitigation Authority (NDRMMA) did issue early warnings through social media platforms, including daily situation reports, the paper says that these tended to focus on post-event rescue and relief, and not enough on early warning.Even when the correct forecast was available, there was not enough coordination with various other agencies of government like the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Local Development, local governments, as well as the security agencies for emergency rescue. <figure><img width="649" height="360" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c1e9c7e80680e0bd477jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Stations with over 200 mm of accumulated rainfall in 2021 October</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="608" height="674" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c209c7e80680e0bd478jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Maximum 24-hour October rainfall above 140 mm in October (1951 to 2009)</figcaption></figure>This could have been due to the impending Dasain holiday mood, but the authors also blame ‘location specific impact-based rainfall forecasts’. In other words, the early warning was too general. The authors imply that the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology should not just be in the business of issuing forecasts, but also work with local authorities for preparedness and timely action.  ‘The argument that the frequency of extreme rainfall events in the post-monsoon has increased seems to be valid,’ the paper says. ‘In 2009, the post-monsoon high rainfall was concentrated in west Nepal. It was the same initially in 2021, but the widespread and unseasonal rainfall last year seemed to catch everyone by surprise and there was not even some semblance of preparedness for rescue and relief to be dominant in disaster management response.’Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt/">Lessons still not learnt</a>, Editorial

Post-disaster lessons for Nepal

<figure><img width="640" height="296" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202e49c7e80680e0b27dajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The Bhemthang sediment field this week after the snowstorm, and in July after the flashflood (pictured below). Photos: SONAM LAMA and SHIVA BASKOTA</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="857" height="500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202e79c7e80680e0b27dbjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>A scientific team that had gone to assess a monsoon disaster that damaged <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/melamchi-coming-to-kathmandu" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s most expensive infrastructure project</a> northeast of Kathmandu itself had a narrow escape in a snowstorm this week.The nearly completed $700 million Melamchi Water Supply Project designed to bring water from a glacier in Langtang National Park to Kathmandu through a 26.5km tunnel was badly damaged in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/still-chasing-the-melamchi-mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">freak flash-flood in July</a>.The Asian Development Bank (ADB) that is the main funder of the scheme sent a research group to the headwaters of the Melamchi River to investigate the cause of the floods and assess future risk.However, the 16-member team composed of geologists, glaciologists, support staff and porters which had helicoptered to the Bhemthang region of the valley two weeks ago to investigate <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-monsoon-mess-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the monsoon flood</a> was itself trapped for 27 hours by a winter blizzard.  <img width="640" height="296" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202ea9c7e80680e0b27dcjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="288" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202ec9c7e80680e0b27ddjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202ef9c7e80680e0b27dex-m4v" title="" alt=""/>“It snowed continuously all day on Tuesday and till midnight, and there was more than 1m of snow,” said Sonam Lama, a mountaineering guide with 16 years of experience who knows the region well.Heavy snowfall and small avalanches from above buried the team’s tents and equipment, and members were forced to spend the night under a rock overhang. The next morning the visibility was too poor for a rescue flight, and the helicopter finally arrived on the afternoon of 30 December. The team had just finished carrying out a topographical scan and a geophysical survey of the depth of the fluvial deposits at Bhemthang from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the July floods</a>. The data will be processed to see if there is danger of more floods from the debris field, or the glaciers further up the Pemdang and Melamchi rivers.  “We scanned the sediment deposits up to a depth of 100m to see if there is a risk of it being washed down in future,” said Hari Ghimire, leader of the research team. “We measured the depth and volume of debris, but the data will take some time to be processed.” <figure><img width="2360" height="1562" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202f09c7e80680e0b27dfjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The terrain upstream from the headworks after the flood on the Melamchi River in July. Photo: NDRRMA</figcaption></figure>Six international project staff lost their lives in the debris flow on 15 July, and 20 people downstream are still missing. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The flood</a> destroyed the headwork channel, sedimentation pond and other structures, causing Rs2 billion worth of damage. However, engineers managed to close the main gate to the tunnel just before the flood waters rose, saving the scheme from much more serious destruction. Results of the current investigation will determine what new structures need to be designed to protect the headworks from future floods. A study of the glaciers upstream will also be undertaken to see if there is any vulnerability.Scientists say <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the July floods</a> could have been caused by a combination of destabilised slopes after the 2015 earthquake, being exposed to record rainfall of 200mm in 24 hours on 15 July, and climate change.  <figure><img width="853" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202f49c7e80680e0b27e0jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The Melamchi headworks damaged in the July floods. Photo: SHIVA BASKOTA</figcaption></figure>The rain fell on fragile moraines and slopes which used to get snow earlier. Global warming has also melted the glaciers upstream creating numerous supraglacial ponds.“This geophysical survey of the Melamchi watershed and other studies of the condition of the glaciers will provide us the information necessary to assess the nature of the catchment area so we can plan future action,” said Tajendra Pant, an engineer with the Melamchi project.  <figure><img width="815" height="410" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202f79c7e80680e0b27e1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="907" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202f99c7e80680e0b27e2jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/light-at-the-end-of-the-melamchi-tunnel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Melamchi Water Supply Project</a> was damaged after its soft opening last year, even before it came into full operation to supply Kathmandu Valley with 170 million litres of water a day. A proposed extension of the project to bring water from Yangri and Larke Khola with another 12km tunnel will increase the supply to 510 million litres a day. The tunnel is the second longest water supply tunnel in Asia.

Narrow escape for Melamchi fact-finding team

Monsoon Culture

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016118/636d14149c7e80680e0a995cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>After the flashflood of international media coverage of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, the climate emergency has now fallen off the headlines. The Nepali delegation has returned after setting ambitious targets for forestry, adaptation and net-zero.Now, the real work begins. It is time to walk the talk, so that the people of Manang and Melamchi who suffered devastating floods this monsoon do not just get relief, but are protected from future climate calamities.My own home and farm along the Melamchi <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1637647216248000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1l6Qdqf2cPzviP8RzuawAE">was washed away by the freak floods of 15-16 July</a>, and there is no doubt that the severity of extreme weather has increased due to the warming trend in the Himalaya.  Despite being pitted as a ‘make-or-break’ climate summit that would set strict global targets to reduce carbon emissions by 45% from 2010 levels in the next nine years, and net-zero by 2050, to keep the warming at 1.5°, the UN conference was reduced to just a photo-op for leaders from over 140 countries and their 40,000+ delegates.Aside from their own combined carbon emissions for roundtrips to Glasgow, the leaders did not show the needed commitment to limit global heating to below 2° Celsius, let alone 1.5°. In fact, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) submitted by 194 countries will bring down the warming to only 2.4°. Global carbon emission cuts are needed to prevent continental-scale wildfires, more extreme heat waves, flash-floods, glacial melt,  and mass extinctions. The summit also came short in delivering committed finance to developing countries and addressing loss and damage issues. At most, the two-week-long intense negotiations ended with the adoption of the ‘Glasgow Climate Pact,’ which was watered down with the last minute change from coal ‘phaseout’ to ‘phasedown’. But semantics aside, the explicit mention of coal reduction in the climate summit was indication that fossil fuels may finally be on their way out.Even so, the COP26 outcomes did not meet the expectations of countries like Nepal. The Nepal delegation sent a clear message about the urgency of tackling the planetary emergency, citing recent experiences of climate-induced disasters in the country, and pledged to do its bit.Developing countries failed to get desired commitments from industrialised countries about compensation for climate-induced disasters, especially on the agenda of ‘loss and damage’ which would have directly benefited Nepal.The demand of developing countries in establishing the Loss and Damage Facility to finance and support poor and vulnerable nations where climate adaptation limits are exhausted was limited to agreeing on the functions and financing arrangements for technical assistance under the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage.The failure of developed countries to jointly mobilise $100 billion per year by 2020 for climate action was met with harsh criticism prompting them to lay out the ‘Climate Finance Delivery Plan’ in meeting the previous commitment as well as pledge to double the adaptation finance by 2025.Similarly, a clear roadmap was developed to decide on a new collective quantified goal on climate finance going beyond 2025 from a floor of $100 billion per year. A work program from 2022 to 2024 to deliberate and agree on a new goal has been set up.COP26 completed the remaining elements of the Paris Agreement ‘Rulebook’ that had been pending for six years. Market and non-market rules for trading carbon credits have been agreed upon by allowing nations to meet their NDC target by offsetting through green projects in other countries. Developing countries including Nepal gain to benefit from investment in renewable energy, forest protection and other carbon reduction projects through the flow of capital and technology transfer. A levy of 5% from these projects will go to the Adaptation Fund to support adaptation actions in developing countries.Industrialised nations have committed to double adaptation finance with grant components. They have also pledged nearly $1.5 billion to the Adaptation Fund (AF), Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF). Nepal must reap benefits from these limited opportunities for its climate action.If Nepal is to benefit from any of these outcomes and international agreements, it will have to start meticulous preparation. More importantly, we need to craft a robust implementation plan with the neediest and the most vulnerable at the centre, to meet the climate targets we have committed to in the NDC and the National Adaptation Plan submitted to the UN.At the end of the day, attending international conferences and raising mountain issues will not protect local communities from the worsening impacts of the climate crisis. These climate summits provide guidance, but most of our work has to be done here at home.Let us start with what is within our resources: build climate resilient communities by electrifying transport and cooking, reduce the import bill and improve public health. Raju Pandit Chhetri works on climate change issues and attended the recently concluded COP26 in Glasgow. <img width="80" height="109" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016118/636d14179c7e80680e0a995djpeg.jpg" alt="">Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/"> Think globally in Glasgow, and act locally</a>, Raju Pandit Chhetri

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