<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d137b9c7e80680e0a9924jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365"/><figcaption>Kathmandu shrouded in smoke and smog from stubble and industrial pollution from northern India, as well as the valley's own vehicular emissions on Monday morning. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Just as the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/copout-at-cop26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">deadlocked climate summit in Glasgow</a> was being extended by a day last week, Kathmandu was once again shrouded in smoke and smog from stubble burning and industrial pollution from northern India, as well as the valley’s own vehicular emissions.Nothing could have drawn the link between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-greenwashing-in-glasgow/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global negotiations in Scotland</a> to save the planet from catastrophic heating, and the clear and present danger stemming from flawed policies of national governments.India was blamed for watering down the final resolution by changing ‘phaseout’ to ‘phasedown’ of coal, while rich countries like Australia, the US and others did not have to put their cash where their mouths were to make up for historical emissions.There were two Conference of Parties (COPs) going on simultaneously in Glasgow last week: one where mainly male politicians in suits protected their <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sino-american-impacts-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">national interest to negotiate</a> commas and brackets, and the other dominated by young women trying to warn world leaders that it was their future they were messing with.The toxic air covering northern India and Nepal while COP26 was taking place was a stark reminder that developing countries cannot go around hectoring industrialised countries about ‘climate justice’ when their own policies poison their air, water and soil.With winter approaching, it looks like this year’s Indo-Gangetic smog will only get worse since India does not have to ‘phaseout’ coal, and there is no mandatory timetable even for ‘phasing down’.Nepal is not doing much better. Its petroleum import bill is doubling every few years, and we do not see the political commitment to implement provisions in the updated Nationally Determined Contribution, or the Climate Ambition at the Top of the World report that was unveiled in Glasgow.Nepal was praised internationally (and also modestly patted itself in the back) for its three pledges in Glasgow: to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">increase forest cover</a> to 45% by 2030, start reducing emissions to become carbon negative after 2045, and ensure climate resilience for all vulnerable people by 2030.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d137d9c7e80680e0a9925jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2400"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The forestry target is the most do-able, because Nepal’s total forest area is already at 44.74% -- we just have to make sure no more trees are cut in the next nine years. So, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">no Nijgad</a>.But we have no idea how the government expects to help all Nepalis adapt to climate impact. That goal is so vague and non-measureable as to be meaningless.And then there is the aim to be ‘net-zero’ by 2045. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/net-zero-is-not-zero/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Net-zero is an excuse</a> to keep burning fossil fuel, hoping that forests somewhere will absorb the carbon. Besides, net-zero will not protect citizens from toxic emissions car tailpipes and smokestacks.Nepal’s commitment is conditional upon financial support, and there may be a strong moral argument for ‘loss and damage’ compensation because the country only contributes 0.5% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.However, we do not have to wait for donors in order to switch from petro-energy to hydro, solar and wind. Tax rebates for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">electric public transport</a>, subsidies for cooking appliances, switching industries like cement, steel and manufacturing to electricity just need political will.As we have argued here before, Nepal needs to do this not so much to avert a planetary emergency, but to save our economy from collapse, and to protect the public from breathing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">poisonous air</a>.Every year, Kathmandu’s pollution level sets a new record. This spring, the Valley’s air quality index (AQI) <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/kathmandu-air-pollution-hits-record-high/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hit nearly 700</a> because of vehicular emissions combined with wildfire smoke. This was 40 times the level deemed safe to breathe by WHO’s new guidelines. Covid patients at ICUs across the country are being replaced by people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).Given Nepal’s small carbon footprint, we might even attain net-zero status before 2045 because vehicles manufacturers are going electric, so we could not import diesel buses after 2030 even if we wanted to. But government policy must align with our Glasgow pledges. The on-again-off-again tax rebated on EVs in the past four years does not bode well for the future.In addition, Nepalis need help to adapt to cope with the water crisis and resulting food insecurity as well as the impact of weather-related disasters like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/still-chasing-the-melamchi-mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Melamchi</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manang</a> this year.After returning from lobbying rich country delegates in Glasgow, Nepali activists and scientists should now turn their attention to putting pressure on our own government to get climate smart.Sonia Awale

Sonia Awale

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Good COP, bad COP

<figure><img width="3000" height="1405" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18f59c7e80680e0ac7f3jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photos: RSS</figcaption></figure>Still reeling from a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-the-deluge-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disastrous monsoon season</a>, Nepal has been hit with unseasonal downpours that have dumped more rain on rice crops that were ready for harvest across the country.. More than 100mm of rain fell in 24 hours in most parts of western Nepal, which has been the worst affected so far as a late-monsoon depression from the Bay of Bengal was swept into the Himalaya by a westerly system.The Indian state of Uttarakhand and Nepal’s Far-Western Province on either side of the Mahakali River have been badly affected by floods, landslides and submerged rice fields.The border Mahakali River reached record-high levels on Tuesday, destroying roads and bridges. More than 24 people are feared dead in a village in Bajhang hit by a landslide. Another andslide killed two children Dharan. <figure><img width="432" height="324" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18f79c7e80680e0ac7f4jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1800" height="1350" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18fa9c7e80680e0ac7f5jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1134" height="629" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18fe9c7e80680e0ac7f6jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Nepal received 15% more rain than average this monsoon, which officially ended two weeks ago, according to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. The increased precipitation, including in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manang valley</a> in Nepal’s rain shadow brought with it flashfloods that caused major damage in seven hydropower plants, and Nepal’s most expensive project for supplying water to Kathmandu <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/still-chasing-the-melamchi-mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Melamchi Water Supply</a>.Except in the landslide-hit areas, farmers across Nepal had been encouraged by a healthy monsoon and were looking forward to a bumper rice harvest. Early reports said standing crops were submerged, and harvested rice stalks were destroyed right across Nepal.Many roads in the country have been blocked due to floods from the continuous rain, including the Butwal-Bardaghat section of the East-West Highway. Water levels in the Mahakali, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Karnali</a> and Seti rivers in western Nepal have risen to dangerous levels, putting riverside settlements at risk, with many villages on the banks inundated. <figure><img width="3600" height="1667" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19019c7e80680e0ac7f7jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="3092" height="2061" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19069c7e80680e0ac7f8jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Two hundred houses in the Bhimdatta and Dodhara Chandani municipalities near the Indian border in Far-Western Province are reported to have been flooded.According to the Department of Water and Meteorology, 196 out of 225 rainfall measurement centers in the country have recorded heavy rain in the past few days.Senior meteorologist of the Department, Pratibha Manandhar explains: “The low-pressure systems in central India and the Bay of Bengal moving north and the westerly winds becoming active is the reason we are experiencing such heavy rainfall so late in the season.”Generally, anything more than 100mm of rain within 24 hours is considered to be extreme precipitation. In the Far-western Province, Dadeldhura has already recorded 211mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours, Dipayal received 166mm in a sustained cloudburst, Ghorahi got 133mm, and Bhairawa 112mm. (see map, below) In Nepal, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monsoon rains</a> usually stop by the end of September, as the prevailing winds switch direction to blow in from the west. Climate experts are surprised by just how erratic this year’s monsoon has been.  <figure><img width="1128" height="578" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d190a9c7e80680e0ac7f9jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Total rainfall between 8:45 AM 18 October to 8:45AM 19 October in various parts of Nepal. Red areas show highest precipitation in western Nepal. Source: DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND METEROLOGY</figcaption></figure>Water expert Madhukar Upadhya writes on his Twitter account: ‘As soon as we were saying that monsoon has ended, I find it surprising to see such high levels of rain, even capable of causing loss of life and property.’However, Manandhar from the Department of Water and Meteorology says that this kind of post-monsoon period is not unprecedented. She says: “There are weather variations from year to year, so it is not surprising to see rains so late into the season. Usually we get post-monsoon rains when the monsoon itself has heavy precipitation.”  The Department predicts more rain till Wednesday evening especially in Lumbini, Karnali, the Far Western Province, and in many places in Province 1, and gradually diminishing by the end of the week as the westerlies hold sway. However, a few places are still expected to see thunderstorms, strong winds, and heavy rainfall.This untimely rain has severely impacted on the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-of-rice-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">country’s rice harvest</a>. Madhav Prasad Poudel from the Department of Agriculture, says, “Unseasonal rain like this affects both standing crops and also those that have been cut and are left in the fields to dry. The water makes even the straw rot.”   <figure><img width="1500" height="1015" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d190d9c7e80680e0ac7fajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Satellite radar image taken on Tuesday at noon of heavy precipitation over northern India and Nepal. The westerlies are now pushing the system to the west, and the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology says the rains will taper off by Wednesday afternoon.</figcaption></figure>Although the Met Department forecast rain, the information did not reach farmers. Poudel adds that the rain has affected the paddy harvest adversely, but the exact damage has not yet been determined. Sitaram Chaudhary, a farmer from Dhangadi, said that the floods have severely affected the quality of paddy, rice, and straw and even vegetable farms. The government had been predicting records harvests of rice this year because of the favorable monsoon, but this week’s deluge may affect those hopes. This also puts tens of thousands of farmers at the risk of food insecurity. However, agriculturist <a href="https://www.facebook.com/rajendra.uprety" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajendra Uprety at the Ministry of Agriculture of Province 1 </a>says the damage from rains may have been exaggerated, and Nepali farmers are used to dealing with heavy rains and high winds affecting ready to harvest rice crops.  "Of course, there has been damage, but there are ways to salvage rice stalks even from submerged fields," he says, "wet stalks need to be kept in a dry place, the paddy fields need to be drained, and the still standing crop should be harvested only after the rains stop. And we should all be helping each other instead of spreading alarmist information." Rice is grown in over 1.4 million hectares in Nepal. Last year, the country produced over 5 million metric tons of paddy, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/are-nepalis-really-eating-more-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">still imported about Rs51 billion worth of rice</a> to meet growing demand. With this week’s late monsoon floods and unexpected rain, the 2021 harvest is most likely to be below target.

Post-monsoon rain ruins Nepal’s crops

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfca39c7e80680e0a0b9djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="900"/><figcaption>The receding Khumbu Glacier below Mt Everest, and Cholatse Lake in Nepal. Photo: ALTON C BYERS</figcaption></figure>Human activities are damaging the planet at an alarming and unprecedented rate. The latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#SPM" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/%23SPM&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1628763074514000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEuRmAKNU4DKxDTR6sZbkrleWAaAw">report</a> by the UN climate science body IPCC, released this week, lays out startling facts on global warming. The report acts as a stark reminder that inaction will exacerbate the climate-related impacts the world is already facing. It confirms that Earth’s temperature is higher now than it has ever been in the last 125,000 years.The world has already warmed on average by 1.1°C compared to pre-industrial times due to human induced climate change. Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer. As a consequence, climate extremes such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, droughts and storms are on the rise, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1628763074515000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFF4km5LNsqpgkHS40SXEP0XxKOCw">including in Nepal</a> where floods have already claimed about 100 lives just this year.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfca59c7e80680e0a0b9ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="572"><figcaption>Historical warming of the earth. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>Unprecedented pace of glacier retreatThere is no doubt that mountainous regions are at the forefront of climate impacts:  for example, high intensity rain and mountain slope instability can wash out roads and bridges, thereby affecting access to rural areas, and rapid change in mountain snow will have far reaching effects on both upstream and downstream.The IPCC report confirms that the rate of ice sheet loss increased by a factor of four in the last three decades. Through their climate warming greenhouse gas emissions, humans are the main cause of the global retreat of glaciers. The current rate of ice sheet loss, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously since the 1950s, has been unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years.The unprecedented pace of glacier retreat at the global scale is more alarming in the Himalayas. Two years ago, the <a href="https://www.icimod.org/landmark-study-two-degree-temperature-rise-could-melt-half-of-glaciers-in-hindu-kush-himalaya-region-destabilizing-asias-rivers/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.icimod.org/landmark-study-two-degree-temperature-rise-could-melt-half-of-glaciers-in-hindu-kush-himalaya-region-destabilizing-asias-rivers/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1628763074515000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGt4zvQzrZY-rYUYDPjdo6l7e_Lrg">Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment</a> report by ICIMOD confirmed that even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, temperatures will remain at least 0.3°C higher in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), and at least 0.7°C higher in the northwest Himalaya and Karakoram regions of Pakistan. As a consequence, 36% of the glaciers in the region will be gone by 2100. And this is the “best case” scenario where the world manages to limit warming to 1.5°C and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.Climate change is also intensifying the water cycle and affecting rainfall patterns. The IPCC report confirms that the intensity and frequency of hot extremes, including heat waves, and heavy precipitation, as well as agricultural and ecological droughts continue to increase as temperatures rise. For South Asia including Nepal, the average precipitation as well as heavy rainfall events are projected to increase. This will result in more flooding and landslide events. All this will have far reaching consequences across the region with water-dependent energy sectors and water-intensive agricultural systems.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfca89c7e80680e0a0b9fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="315"><figcaption>Projected global temperature rise under the intermediate, high and very high GHG emission scenarios considered. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>Highlands to Islands linkagesThe impacts of melting glaciers are not only limited to the mountainous regions. Rapid ice sheet melt could lead to catastrophic sea level rise even before the end of the century. As outlined in the IPCC report, the global mean sea level has already risen by 20 cm and will continue to do so for thousands of years.The IPCC report confirmed that combined ice sheet and glacier mass loss contributed to 42% of this global mean sea level rise from 2006 to 2018.The report states with greater certainty than previous reports that mountain and polar glaciers will continue melting for decades and centuries to come. Continued ice sheet loss will also release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere -- as temperature rises and permafrost thaws, it decomposes and emits carbon, further amplifying climate change that is causing it to melt.Rising temperatures could melt most mountain glaciers and add more to the sea level rise, both leading to the extinction of small islands and mountain habitats. This cycle that binds the highlands to the islands demonstrates the need for collaboration between mountainous and island countries in the international climate change discourse.  Such collaboration could help to amplify the voice of most vulnerable nations calling for the major emitters to take urgent actions to reduce emissions.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfca99c7e80680e0a0ba0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="546"><figcaption>Future annual emissions of CO₂ under the five scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>Path to followThe IPCC report clearly shows the grave risks of exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – an upper limit of warming which the global community has agreed to in the Paris Agreement. Yet, from the perspective of a mountainous country, even a 1.5°C temperature rise is too much, which will lead to one third of the Himalayan glaciers to disappear with devastating consequences for the region.All decisions from now on, therefore, must be guided by the fact that every extra tonne of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to more warming and any increase in warming will lead to devastating impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems across the world.The most vulnerable countries, including mountainous areas, are already at the forefront of fatal climate and weather disruptions. These countries with limited resources will continuously require international support to combat climate change, and at a scale well beyond current levels. The IPCC report must act as a wakeup call for all governments, in particular the biggest polluters such as the G7 and G20. They must take urgent action in response to the climate emergency, starting by adopting robust and bold 2030 climate commitments by the next UN climate summit - the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/glasgow-climate-change-conference" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/glasgow-climate-change-conference&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1628763074515000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXeAsyEsnaY7moQlGAVCE0LJc8zA">COP26</a> - in November.Manjeet Dhakal is Head of LDC Support Team at Climate Analytics and serves as an Advisor to the Chair of the Least Developed Countries Group at the multilateral process of the UNFCCC. He provides scientific, strategic and high-level climate leadership support for the LDCs’ in climate change UN-related processes.

Mountainous regions face catastrophic impacts without urgent climate action

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc6b9c7e80680e0a0b8ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2006" height="1332"/><figcaption>Paddy and maize fields in Kavre. A heavier than usual monsoon this year brought destructive floods, but was a boon to farmers. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>As if the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/first-drought-then-downpour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">drought</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfire</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flood disasters</a> this year were not bad enough, scientists have warned that unless the world reduces emissions of greenhouse gases drastically, these disasters will get much worse.Hundreds of scientists spent the past two years drafting a 4,000 page <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">report for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),</a> but even as they did so, news of climate calamities were coming in thick and fast: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heat waves</a>, continental-scale wildfires, flash-floods, biodiversity loss.A summary of the report for world governments was released on Monday, three months before world leaders meet in Glasgow in November for a Climate Summit called COP26 (Conference of Parties 26).The highly technical Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the IPCC on the science behind climate change has forecasts that will directly affect Nepal and the Himalaya. It also has pointers on what must be done urgently to reduce its impact.The IPCC report contains the most direct correlation scientists have drawn between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate change and extreme weather</a> around the world.‘The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events … and droughts have increased since the 1950s,’ the report states with ‘high confidence’, adding that human-induced climate change is likely the main driver.It adds categorically: ‘Increases in monsoon precipitation since the 1980s have resulted from rising GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations … Monsoon precipitation is projected to increase in the mid- to long term on a global scale, particularly over South and Southeast Asia.’<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc6e9c7e80680e0a0b8bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1988" height="1024"><figcaption>Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>It predicts that these heavy precipitation events will intensify and become more frequent in most regions as the world continues to warm. Globally, there will be 7% more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">extreme weather</a> for every 1° Celsius of global warming.Even under the best-case scenario of reduced greenhouse gas emission, global average temperature is set to exceed 1.5°C by the turn of the century. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-biden-presidency-climate-and-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Himalaya</a> will get hotter faster than other parts of the world, and could warm by 1.8-2.2°C.The main conclusions of this IPCC report were leaked to AFP in June, and predicts global surface temperatures increasing until at least the mid-century even under the best scenario. The warming will ‘exceed 2°C during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades’.The 2015 Paris Agreement recommended capping global warming at ‘well below 2°C’ above pre-industrial levels, and to 1.5°C in the next 30 years by reducing emissions. However, the increase is already at 1.2°C Celsius, and on track to exceed 2°C.This will lead to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mass species extinction as ecosystems collapse</a>, more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">widespread diseases</a>, heatwaves making parts of the world unfit for human habitation, cities and small island nations at risk of being submerged by sea level rise.For Nepal, even a 1.5°C rise in global temperature will mean <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/manpower-and-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heavy precipitation and associated flooding</a> of the kind the country saw in 2018 and this year. At 2°C increase, the floods, heat waves and droughts  will be even deadlier.The other impact on Nepal will be a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalayan meltdown</a>, as the mountains thaw with rising temperatures.‘Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s,’ the report states. ‘…The global nature of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacier retreat</a>, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously, since the 1950s, is unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years.’<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc719c7e80680e0a0b8cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="546"><figcaption>Future annual emissions of CO₂ under the five scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>This is even truer for the Himalaya because of its proximity to the equator. Scientists say it is already warming up to 0.3-0.7°C faster than the global average due to a phenomenon called ‘Elevation Dependent Warming’. But at the current trajectory, the mountains may see warming of up to 5.7°C during this century. In such a scenario, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalaya will lose two-thirds of permanent ice</a>, and most glaciers will have melted.It predicts that even if greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mountain and polar glaciers will continue melting</a> for decades or centuries. This will impact not just Nepal but about 1 billion people living downstream from the Himalaya in China, India, Bangladesh and southeast Asia.‘Human influence has likely increased the chance of compound extreme events since the 1950s, increases in the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on the global scale, fire weather in some regions of all inhabited continents, and compound flooding in some locations,’ the says the IPCC report, almost describing the winter drought, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/weve-seen-fire-and-weve-seen-rain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfires and floods that have ravaged Nepal</a> in the past 8 months.The main cause of all this warming is that in 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years. Global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 will be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C compared to pre-industrial levels even if emissions are controlled in the next 30 years.The IPCC report summary says that the only solution is for world governments to immediately agree on reaching net zero anthropogenic CO2 emissions to stabilise human-induced <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global temperature increase</a>.If the biggest carbon emitters like India and China meet cut back targets, under the most optimistic scenario global average temperature would stabilise at below 1.5°C toward the end of the 21st century after overheating by 0.1°C. But experts do not sound very optimistic about this happening.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc749c7e80680e0a0b8djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2006" height="986"><figcaption>Projected global temperature rise under the intermediate, high and very high GHG emission scenarios considered. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure><a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s greenhouse gas emission</a> is negligible, but it has doubled in the past seven years according to a mandatory report filed by the Ministry of Environment with the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Most of this is because the volume of petroleum imports from India has doubled in the past 10 years to meet the demand of transportation, expansion of cement and other industries.Last year, Nepal had submitted its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to meet <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">zero emission by 2050</a>. Switching to electric public transport and battery vehicles to reduce the petroleum import bill by just 10% would save Rs21 billion a year. This will also clean up the air, dirty air killed 41,000 people in Nepal in 2019.It is a sign of just how desperate the situation is that the IPCC scientists say in their report that the only hope for life on the planet may be a major volcanic eruption this century that would reduce global surface temperature because the sun will be blocked out for 2-3 years.The reports says rather phlegmatically: ‘If such an eruption occurs, this would therefore temporarily and partially mask human-caused climate change.’

UN climate report declares planetary emergency

Tom Robertson

Kathmandu's ‘flash floods’ are 4 decades in the making

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06359c7e80680e0a5f4ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080"/><figcaption>The Kosi Barrage on the Indian border where the river funnels out into the inland delta in Bihar.</figcaption></figure><ul><li>Three decades after it was first proposed, a 26.5km tunnel starts supplying water from Melamchi to Kathmandu.</li> <li>A <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625725666191000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEISH8LehEm5nAihrdyEOSDxSXsUg">deadly flood</a> on the Melamchi-Indrawati in Sindhupalchok on 16 June kills at least 27 people, and destroys infrastructure.</li> <li>The much-delayed 465MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower plant starts feeding electricity to the national grid.</li> <li>SJVN says it has completed half the work on the 900MW Arun III project and the Investment Board awarded it another contract to develop the 679MW Lower Arun as well.</li> <li>Work has begun on the Sunkosi-Marin Diversion, to channel water to the Bagmati Basin and irrigate much of Province 2.</li></ul>All five events have one thing in common: they are all on the trans-boundary Kosi Basin that drains 75,000 sq km of territory in China, Nepal and India.Last week, I was standing on the Pati Bhanjyang ridgeline at the northeastern rim of Kathmandu Valley. Pour a glass of water on one side, and it flows westwards into the Gandaki River Basin. On the other side the streams drain into the Melamchi, which meets the Indrawati, then the Bhote Kosi to become the Sun Kosi that flows 200km eastward until it merges with the Arun and Tamor to form the Sapta Kosi.At that point, the river makes a tight turn south to tumble into the Kosi megafan in the Tarai and Bihar to finally to join the Ganga at Kursela. The Kosi, in fact, is the largest tributary of the Ganges, bigger than the Gandaki, Karnali, Jamuna, and even bigger than the Ganga itself as it debouches into the plains at Haridwar.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06389c7e80680e0a5f4fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Kosi’s origin in Nepal is near Kathmandu. But it largest tributary, the Arun, originates in Tibet where it is called the Phung Chu, makes a mighty arc in Tibet and cuts through the Himalaya between Mt Makalu and Mt Kangchenjunga to meet its siblings Sun Kosi and Tamor at Tribeni.Geologists say rivers like the Arun that slice through the Himalaya are older than the mountains, and cut their way through as the terrain rose over millions of years with the collision of the India and Eurasian tectonic plates.The Kosi watershed therefore drains an enormous vertical landscape stretching from Mt Xixapangma which lies just 80km on the other side of the Himalaya in China, both sides of Mt Gauri Shankar (Chomo Tseringma), Mt Everest and Mt Makalu, as well as the western slopes of Kangchenjunga. Six of the world’s 13 peaks above 8,000m are therefore a part of the Kosi catchment.These mountains block the monsoons, and in eastern Nepal their southern slopes get more than 3,000mm of rain a year, weathering them down relentlessly, making the sedimentation load of the Kosi the heaviest for any river in the world.The topography of this mighty river has shaped Nepal’s history and culture, and can determine the country’s future prosperity as well. But only if we respect its geology, hydrology and the climate of its basin.Watershed expert Madhukar Upadhyay says, “We have not even begun to understand the hydrological and geological specificities of our mountains and rivers and yet are rushing headlong into ever-larger infrastructure development. Nepalis will still be here 500 years from now, what kind of country and landscape are we leaving behind for them?”Last month, landslides blocked the Melamchi-Indrawati, unleashing a deadly debris flow that destroyed infrastructure, homes and livelihoods. It imperilled <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/light-at-the-end-of-the-melamchi-tunnel/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/light-at-the-end-of-the-melamchi-tunnel/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625725666191000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEaXQ5HnjB92xgkbHBEnnbl5xiwow">the Melamchi project</a>, and its tunnel supplying water to Kathmandu was saved only because the gates were closed for maintenance just hours before the onrush.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d063c9c7e80680e0a5f50jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This week, the Upper Tama Kosi project started generating electricity, that will provide one-third of Nepal’s total power demand. But there was a scare just days before the inauguration: China informed Nepal that a massive landslide had blocked the river upstream, threatening the Rs55 billion project. Fortunately, the river found its way around the blockage. The near escapes of the Melamchi and Upper Tama Kosi sites make us take Upadhyay’s warnings seriously.Other <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625725666191000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHkbbDluGypXbbgC1BQxVAVndFTvA">flash floods this year </a>in Manang, Kaski and Lamjung also showed that while our rivers hold great promise, we ignore the risk to settlements and major infrastructure along their banks. Our engineering methods have been inherited from the West, and do not account for cloudbursts and extreme Himalayan weather events. All these risks have been exacerbated by climate change.In Melamchi, the power of the flood last month is evident in the steel hulk of the Indrawati Bridge that lies crumpled in the muddy river 100m downstream amidst room-sized boulders. The new sand bank is 25m thick, indicating the flood’s maximum height.It is not clear what happened, for a bishyari or two (bursting of a landslide-damming of the river) would not be enough to generate such a massive debris flow. Some speculate there may have been centuries-old glacial deposits which suddenly got released through a combination of earthquake weakening and heavy rain.We also saw that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-the-deluge-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-the-deluge-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625725666191000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFAaYeK5lUf9eY4-j8mOHnFIUOT5A">Melamchi Bazar </a>had expanded into the river’s flood plain, with buildings in place of rice paddies, which added to the loss of life and property. Less than a month after the disaster excavators and tipper trucks are already on the Indrawati river bed, scooping up sand and boulders to feed Kathmandu Valley’s voracious appetite for construction material.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06409c7e80680e0a5f51jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>It is the Kosi’s Melamchi tributary that augments Kathmandu’s water supply, while the sand and boulders from the Indrawati, Sun Kosi, Bhote Kosi and Rosi fulfil the Valley’s demand for sand and aggregates.While earthquakes, floods and landslides are seen as ‘natural disasters’, and indeed they are to some extent, they become ‘man-made’ calamities with unregulated sand-mining of rivers, quarrying on steep slopes, and haphazard road-building.The highway along the Indrawati is crowded with sand-laden tipper trucks bound for Kathmandu. Downstream towards the Kosi Barrage along the BP Highway, the road follows the river past the site where a part of the Sun Kosi is to be channeled through a 13km tunnel to irrigate farmlands in the Tarai of Province 2. A similar inter-basin diversion scheme on the Kali Gandaki is now pitting Gandaki vs Lumbini Province, and the central government.We finally get to the new bridge across the Sapta Kosi at Chhatara, connecting Udayapur and Sunsari districts. This is exactly the point where, after its epic journey from the Tibetan Plateau and between the highest mountains in the world, this great river fans out into the plains.https://youtu.be/34lmOgPv-zkNorth of the bridge is the site of the proposed mammoth <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2413#.YOQRoi8RoWo" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D2413%23.YOQRoi8RoWo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625725666191000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF86VG9E0i8u5OqfG5NvKJKILpBEA">Kosi High Dam</a>. The 300m high dam will create a reservoir submerging huge tracts of the Sun Kosi, Arun and Tamor Valleys in a kind of ‘trishul’. India needs the dam for flood control, and to facilitate inland navigation by storing monsoon water and discharging it in the dry season. But there are many questions regarding the proposed mega project.To begin with, the high silt load means that a future Kosi Reservoir would soon fill up with sediment. There are alternatives to dams: people in the Kosi plains have learnt to live with annual floods which deposit valuable soil nutrients, and diverting water through earlier river channels would ease flood impact.The village of Hanuman Nagar had to be relocated because of the barrage, and 60 years later some of its families and those further upstream have still not got compensated. The barrage also destroyed an important wetland, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-great-trans-himalayan-bird-migration/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-great-trans-himalayan-bird-migration/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625725666191000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOCjdWAUhLv8LM1mLEnBNbFZeVHQ">migratory birds </a>now alight in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15974#.YOQSqy8RoWo" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D15974%23.YOQSqy8RoWo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625725666191000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH9ndET9JXr1SU0_SRmfnAXaLeZ5A">Kosi Tappu Wildlife Reserve</a> instead.Extending the reserve further north and south could increase the habitat of endangered arna, wild elephants and freshwater dolphins, encourage ecotourism, and provide income to villagers whose grandparents had to move.The 60-year-old embankments that jacket the Kosi upstream and downstream from the Barrage have created the potential for a massive future disaster, an inland tsunami. Because of the river’s heavy silt content, the Kosi now flows on a deck 3-4m above the surrounding land. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15163#.YOQR6y8RoWo" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D15163%23.YOQR6y8RoWo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625725666191000&amp;usg=AFQjCNELQRpfAALk_H4uMYlUohTJDiWrQg">In 2008, the Kosi breached the eastern embankment </a>at Kusaha, causing <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15193#.YOQTGy8RoWo" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D15193%23.YOQTGy8RoWo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625725666191000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGQbFvez-8I6Bv7_rYVwfQpczaNAg">destruction </a>downstream in Sunsari and Bihar. And that was when the river was not even in spate.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06439c7e80680e0a5f52jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>With extreme weather caused by climate change, or a confluence of cloud-bursts in the mountain catchment, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3526#.YOQSOy8RoWo" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D3526%23.YOQSOy8RoWo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625725666191000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEvH8AZlBKUPb68a4OulBhpsm0Q2w">a record-breaking flood in future</a> could cause an engorged Kosi to bypass the barrage altogether and unleash a catastrophic flood downstream.The Kosi Barrage was meant to be a temporary solution, and the Kosi High Dam was always in the minds of the Indian authorities. There is a need for transparent and independent study by water experts, social scientists and technocrats to study the pros and cons of the Kosi High Dam.Siltation, seismicity, adaptation and mitigation, all need to be factored in with projected future climate impact. Meanwhile, across the world, ecologists are warning that the price to pay for large dams is too great because of the destruction of river ecosystems.A massive rockfill dam on a seismically active zone, the geopolitical implications as well as the social and environmental costs may outweigh the planned benefits. To make up for the mistake of the Kosi Barrage, we may be making an even greater blunder with the Kosi High Dam.

The Kosi’s sorrow, and scope

<img width="640" height="360" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92ad9c7e80680e06f160jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Extreme rainfall over the past three days on Himalayan foothills that were ravaged by wildfires just four months ago have led to dangerously high water levels in the Gandaki Basin in Central Nepal.Major damage has been reported after a flash flood on the Melamchi River that has left eight people missing. Nepal Army helicopters rescued people marooned on the tops of homes in Melamchi Bazar. Many bridges, parts of the highway and some of the headworks of the Melamchi Water Supply project were also damaged.The southwest monsoon arrived on schedule earlier this week, propelled by a massive low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, and as the moisture-laden clouds rose over the Himalaya they dumped above-average rainfall from Makwanpur to Dolpo.As a result, the Narayani River at Bharatpur is flowing above the danger mark as the flood waters race towards the Indian border. Most of the tributaries of the Narayani upstream have also seen floods. <figure><img width="610" height="380" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92b09c7e80680e06f161jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The flashflood on the Melamchi River (above) on Tuesday swept away camps set up by the Nepal Police, Nepal Army and Armed Police Force in Sindhupalchok, a district also devastated by the 2015 earthquake. Residential homes and bridges in Melamchi Bazar also suffered damage (below).</figcaption></figure><img width="720" height="960" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92b29c7e80680e06f162jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="720" height="960" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92b49c7e80680e06f163jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figure><img width="1440" height="812" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92b79c7e80680e06f164jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Manang district, which suffered a wildfire that lasted three months and ravaged most of the forests in its southern region, saw flash floods on Tuesday morning on the Timang Khola and Syalkhyu Khola that washed away a 32kW hydropower plant, and put homes at risk in the district capital of Chame. Fifty families have reportedly been displaced. The rivers feed into the Marsyangdi, which is now in spate as it rushes past several of Nepal’s major hydroelectric plants downstream. In Kaski district, high water on the Madi river damaged a 44MW hydropower plant under construction. The powerhouse and headworks were damaged, while 15 excavators, tipper trucks and other vehicles were washed away. Interestingly, areas of the Himalayan rain shadow which usually lie north of the mountains and receive scanty rainfall, saw the worst floods after continuous rain for 24 hours from Monday till Tuesday afternoon. <figure><img width="640" height="368" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92b99c7e80680e06f165jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Rainfall mapped from 14-15 June at 8:45 AM. Central Nepal's Gandaki watershed was particularly affected. </figcaption></figure>In Mustang, people in the village of Lupra had to move to higher ground after a tributary of the Kali Gandaki brought down a viscous paste of water and mud from the glaciers in the mountains above.In southern Dolpo, a newly-built bridge on the Thulo Bheri River was washed away by raging flood waters. The rainfall chart of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DoHM) showed between 150-200mm of rainfall in 24 hours right across Myagdi, Kaski, Tanahu, Lamjung, Gorkha, Chitwan, and Makwanpur. The DoMH had been sending out persistent warnings about heavy rainfall all this week, but even it seems to have been caught by surprise by the intensity of the rainfall and the location of some of the heaviest precipitation in the trans-HImalayan districts of Manang, Mustang and Dolpo.The highest rainfall in the past 24 hour period was recorded in Syangja with 214mm, and 30 of the Department’s 200 rainfall recording stations measured precipitation above 100mm in the past 24 hours. Nearly all of these were in the Gandaki watershed in Central Nepal. <figure><img width="640" height="407" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92bb9c7e80680e06f166jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Total rainfall measured 14-15 June in DoHM monitoring stations across Central Nepal.</figcaption></figure>Raging muddy flood waters on the Kali Gandaki forced the Nepal Electricity Authority to open all sluice gates on the Kali Gandaki A hydropower project, which means that some of the settlements downstream in Syangja are at risk. Last week, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) had cited weather modelling by the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum that had projected heavier than normal rainfall this monsoon over most of Nepal. But no one expected the monsoon to hit with such a bang so early into the season. “We are now bracing up for the 2021 monsoon season, and it is predicted to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623841700340000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHaCMaofU6i3lkvp2EUK0l8ZIzjng">much more intense than last year</a>," NDRRMA’s Anil Pokhrel wrote in Nepali Times last week. He predicted that this year’s monsoon comes after the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623841700340000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEP17YMAtY9auxstOArLq2HGommqA">worst wildfire season ever</a>, and it could make it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/">even more destructive. </a> “<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/">Wildfires that raged for months</a> burnt through forest-shrub cover, undermining the ability of mountain slopes to absorb rainfall and prevent soil erosion. This could potentially result in more landslides and floods,” Pokhrel said.  Besides heavier than usual rainfall, what made the floods more destructive  in Melamchi and other rivers are: poorly constructed roads triggering landslides, slopes scorched in the spring wildfires unable to soak in water, mountains still unstable from the 2015 earthquakes, as well as rampant sand and boulder mining along rivers that increased the velocity of the rivers.

Monsoon hits Nepal with a bang

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b920e9c7e80680e06f127jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="701"/><figcaption>Photo: MANISH PAUDEL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>The 2020 southwest monsoon was forecast to be 'normal' in Nepal, but it turned out to be more intense than predicted, and lasted much longer.Last year saw deadly landslides and floods across the country, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">killing at least 400 people</a>, with Sindhupalchok, Baglung, Myagdi, Jajarkot, Kalikot and Bajura districts bearing the brunt of the disasters. Entire villages were buried and debris flows swept away rocks, trees, bridges and houses.We are now bracing up for the 2021 monsoon season, and it is predicted to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">much more intense than last year</a>. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has forecast that this year's monsoon precipitation will be 'above normal' almost throughout the country.This year's monsoon comes after the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">worst wildfire season ever</a>, and it could make this year’s monsoon even more destructive. Wildfires that raged for months burnt through forest-shrub cover, undermining the ability of mountain slopes to absorb rainfall and prevent soil erosion. This could potentially result in more landslides and floods.Then there is also the Covid-19 pandemic, that is now <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/in-nepal-virus-climbs-from-plains-to-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">raging across the hinterland</a>, and has further compounded the challenges in responding to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monsoon-induced disasters</a>. Many local first responders have fallen sick during the second wave of the coronavirus, and those who are fit enough to conduct rescue and relief will find it difficult to maintain safe distance.Given all these considerations, it would be naive to hope that everything will be all right in the next few months, but the slopes are already saturated by pre-monsoon rains and this does not bode well.Here at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) we are committed to reducing losses in lives and livelihoods by:<ul><li>Preparing joint response during the pandemic to landslides, floods and water borne diseases with federal, provincial, local governments including District Disaster Management Committees for swift rescue and relief operations.</li> <li>Closely working with the Nepal Army, the Armed Police Force, Nepal Police, community groups, non-profits, development partners and the private sector.</li> <li>Improving Early Warning System and communicating disaster risks in more effective ways.</li> <li>Prepositioning search and rescue equipment including relief items.</li></ul>While preparing for this year's monsoon, we have also begun to look beyond 2021. With the right policies and actions, we can achieve our target of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">substantial reduction of disaster risk</a> and loss of lives and livelihoods by 2030. It may sound ambitious, but we have a vision to pull it off in sync with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030).<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b920f9c7e80680e06f128jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2081" height="1260"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Through this year's budget program, the government has unveiled a 10-year campaign to build Suraksit Nepal -- a disaster resilient Nepal which will fast track actions to ensure safety in not just future earthquakes, but other hazards.The 10-year campaign to build a resilient Nepal will use our valuable learning and insights from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction</a>. In the first few years after the 2015 earthquake, Nepal received unfair bad publicity in the international media for sluggish reconstruction, but the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) quickly made up for lost time to achieve its mandate.The NRA’s completion of post-earthquake recovery despite the 2015-16 border blockade and the 2020-21 lockdowns is a model for other countries. Nepal is planning an international conference next year to share this success story.To wrap up the post-earthquake recovery, the government has allocated the budget to build 14,155 more classrooms, 105 health facilities, 195 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/learning-from-nepals-past-to-rebuild-its-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cultural monuments</a> and 36 government buildings. Similarly, reconstruction and retrofitting of heritage buildings and completion of 39 integrated settlements also feature prominently in this year's budget.This year’s budget also allocates money for disaster preparedness, search, rescue, relief, and rehabilitation. This includes programs for disaster risk financing, helicopters for aerial firefighting, multi-hazard early warning system, multi-purpose robotic firefighting equipment in all provinces, advanced fire brigade, multi-seater ambulance, rescue vehicles and fire trucks at all local levels.This is the first time Disaster Risk Management has featured so prominently in Nepal's national budget. Disasters are traditionally seen as acts of god in Nepal, this is why there was little will to work on prevention.We now see a paradigm shift in this thinking. We are moving from response more towards <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">preparedness and risk reduction</a>. Rather than waiting for disasters to happen and spending financial, human and institutional resources on rescue and relief, our new emphasis in this decade is on disaster risk reduction and preparedness for effective response.As part of the 10-year campaign to build a disaster resilient Nepal, we need to plan, design and implement:<ul><li>Multi-hazard risk assessment and mapping</li> <li>Establishment of a national platform to communicate risk information</li> <li>Early warning system using all forms of media for all hazards</li> <li>Disaster risk financing with insurance of private houses and public buildings</li> <li>Integrated settlements for communities at high-risk locations</li> <li>Guidelines and system to reconstruct infrastructure damaged by disasters</li> <li>Revision of the building code to integrate key risks such as floods, fire and lightning and create incentives for implementation</li> <li>Reduction of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood risks</li> <li>Design standards to integrate disaster and climate risks for roads, water supply and irrigation</li> <li>Establishment of Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority at all seven provinces</li> <li>Establishment of Emergency Operation Centers at all seven provinces, 77 districts and key municipalities with high risks</li> <li>Building capacity of provincial and local governments to integrate risk considerations into development planning</li> <li>Restructuring of NDRRMA to include a Training and Research Directorate for disaster risk reduction</li></ul>Successful completion of these tasks will lay the groundwork for the 10-year plan. Its success will not only save lives and livelihoods, but also reduce recurrent economic damage and loss from disasters.Anil Pokhrel is the Chief Executive of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).

A disaster resilient Nepal is possible

<figure><img width="3000" height="2000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad0e9c7e80680e077f6djpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Floods over the weekend in Damauli, Tanahu inundates a settlement. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>This year’s monsoon rains started early, and have been heavy. But total precipitation for June and the rainfall recorded for the past five days in Central Nepal have not been above normal. The past week saw a convergence of moisture from both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branches of the southwest monsoon which did bring isolated heavy rainfall in parts of the central-west mountains and eastern Nepal. Kathmandu Valley saw 70mm of rain between 5-13 July, which is about normal for this time of year. However, disaster management experts say many of the deadly landslides were triggered by haphazard road construction that disturbed the slopes and natural drainage, while in the plains floods have been made worse by poorly designed roads, urbanisation of floodplains, deforestation and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/11/chure-denudation-and-floods/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/11/chure-denudation-and-floods/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFCqsvpsn5HYhB586N2oFbF6G89aQ">sand extraction in the Chure</a>, as well as embankment building across the border in India. “The rivers all flow down from the Chure, and the soil erosion is raising the level of the river beds making floods damage of the fertile farms of the Tarai worse,” says Nagdev Yadav of the Community Development and Advocacy Forum in Province 2. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" rel="noopener noreferrer">Preparing for floods during a lockdown</a>, Diya Rijal <figure><img width="1800" height="1350" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad129c7e80680e077f6ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>After the 2017 flood, a <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/59123" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/59123&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG2UMNeWggs8Sfg28kpRCZLnVORUQ">study</a> by Practical Action concluded: ‘The increased intensity of the flood impact was caused by improper drainage system in cities, cross-border embankment, and elevated roads in borders, causing more inundations in the Tarai.’Co-author of that study, climate risk expert Madhab Uprety adds that this year saw <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/115833" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/115833&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNElsF8qcXyJBAIKBE4sqp1nOep0hg">30% </a>higher pre-monsoon precipitation in April-May. The top soil on mountain slopes were therefore already saturated when the main monsoons hit, making them more prone to landslides.According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) there were already 120 major landslides from June 14 to July 8. So far, the death toll is 60 killed and 42 missing with many injured. At least 150 families have been affected by the landslides. Experts who analysed the deadly flash-flood on two tributaries of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/mycity/2016/07/10/bhotekosi-flash-flood/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/mycity/2016/07/10/bhotekosi-flash-flood/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEJHkX34E8aRX2MQKumOUc6Xh61HA">Bhote Kosi</a> on the night of 7 July conclude that a combination of heavy rain and bad engineering on a road up the mountain caused the slope failure. ‘There is a newly-constructed road above the stream that brought down the flashflood that swept away 14 houses,’ <a href="https://twitter.com/bewitchkapil/status/1281594409130303489" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/bewitchkapil/status/1281594409130303489&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZHfsbOS-EbvDAiiJ7EcL2Yw10ag">tweeted water resource engineer Kapil Dhital</a>. ‘There is too much mud flow on that tributary.’ Indeed, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nowhere-to-nowhere/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nowhere-to-nowhere/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQEAhbJTo8lVldGZff9tWqLa1Eug">haphazard road construction</a> without inputs from bio-engineers cause rock falls even in the dry season. When the rains come the entire slopes on which the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-fatalistic-ke-garne-culture/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-fatalistic-ke-garne-culture/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFFVdxRaH5SFr3WhnDA57oY6NxM6A">roads are hurried dug by excavators</a> are prone to failure. It is then the settlements and farm terraces below them where people are killed and farms destroyed.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad159c7e80680e077f6fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1238" height="960"> <figure><img width="1050" height="591" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad189c7e80680e077f70jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This year’s flood and landslide damage comes on top of the economic hardships caused by the coronavirus crisis. Hundreds of thousands of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/?fbclid=IwAR2hLhLIYQs0YPLP6NvO113PbYjIW_1_RTAXFHUzRHABK3nJrFaVp8f34hk" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/?fbclid%3DIwAR2hLhLIYQs0YPLP6NvO113PbYjIW_1_RTAXFHUzRHABK3nJrFaVp8f34hk&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFb--VQNcZ6Ok9QpdvBvcSwbZDYaw">in-country migrants</a> and workers from overseas have returned to their villages. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHdMHfTuuMvP4A8EK2kxDtzGBl6ng">floods in the Tarai</a> is predicted to worsen the country’s overall food security situation.Other reasons for annual floods along the southern borderlands are the unilateral construction of flood control levees, road embankments without proper drainage in the Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Tension between India and Nepal means there is no immediate prospect of negotiations. It is not just in the plains. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bhaktapur-inundated/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bhaktapur-inundated/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHNyQ6-DkCvaQBLM_wpvlZhLbqKng">devastating flood</a> in Thimi and Bhaktapur in 2018 was blamed on natural drainage channels being blocked by boundary walls and encroachment on flood plains constricting river flow during the monsoon. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology is closely monitoring long-term weather forecasting and rainfall patterns this monsoon. “The trend of heavier-than normal pre-monsoon precipitation looks set to continue for the rest of the rainy season,” explains meteorologist Indira Kandel. This is bound to make flooding and landslides even worse towards the tail end of the monsoon when the topsoil is even more saturated, and the Tarai plains are already waterlogged. At the NDRRMA, the strategy is to have a proper early warning system in place, using remote sensing satellite weather data, rainfall measurements in the catchment areas, and monitoring of river flow so that settlements downstream have time to move to higher ground and shelters. <figure><img width="1452" height="792" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad1b9c7e80680e077f71jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>A network of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNER33gouTpe9lIHPQ3cH8FWwLubzg">community-based early warning systems</a> are also in place to relay the data to villages that are vulnerable to flooding – especially along and downstream from the Chure Hills. “We have installed instruments for early-warning on the Rato River between Mahottari and Dhanusha so that if the water level rises above the danger mark, the information is passed on to communities lower down, and the police, army and Red Cross alerted,” says Nagdev Yadav, whose organisation is trying to broaden the scope of early-warning to also forecast the impact on farms and crops. However, despite the early warning network throughout the country through SMS, radio and social media, many people still do not take it seriously. They may also not have anywhere safer to go, and there is no landslide hazard risk mapping for villages in the mountains.“When people have to evacuate from the warning, they tend to only do it at the last moment when the water has come into their houses, and this causes more death and destruction,” says Madhab Uprety. On Saturday, the streets of far-west Tarai city of Mahendranagar were flooded. There had been heavy rain, but the inundation was caused more by poor drainage and blocked streams. “It only rained for one day, but it caused widespread submergence of the streets because of blocked drains, the spread of the city into the floodplains, and the squatter settlements along the rivers,” explains disaster management expert Himalaya Thapa.  <figure><img width="768" height="576" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad1e9c7e80680e077f72jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Mahakali Municipality in western Nepal was also hit by floods last week, and Mayor Bir Bahadur Sunar says it was not caused by heavy rain but by drainage issues. He says: “The inundation was not due to the overflow of the Mahakali River, but because water was trapped by road construction.” Another reason for flooding can be extreme weather events. Cloudbursts in which hundreds of mm of rain fall in just a few hours are common along the Himalaya, and can cause flooding and landslides even if rivers are flowing naturally, and there is adequate drainage. There is evidence that cloudburst are getting more frequent, and this has been <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE8rQ9i7Hk-Hb5HNBQV-xgDtyv65g">attributed to climate change</a>.“The frequency of floods and landslides have increased over the years, and this could be caused by heavy rains, but in 2017 there were devastating floods even though the precipitation was not above normal,” Uprety says, summing up the dilemma. “Embankments made for flood protection but it confines the river and causes more floods. We also do not take into account the sediment load raising river beds.”

Don’t just blame God for floods and landslides

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a65199c7e80680e059911jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>HIGH AND DRY: A village in Mustang is one of the increasing number of settlements that have been abandoned because of water shortage caused by climate change. Photo : GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>In the past, Nepalis have migrated to India for seasonal labour and military recruitment. Today they fly overseas for work. Tomorrow they may have to migrate in increasing numbers because of climate-induced disasters.But the reason for migrating remains the same: <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reliance of Nepal’s farmers on rain-fed agriculture</a>, which leaves them vulnerable to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-is-the-monsoon-this-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">erratic monsoons</a>. And as extreme weather events become more frequent due to the climate emergency, more and more Nepalis may be forced to move out.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37135&amp;preview_nonce=066ab9802a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Migration mitigation,</a> Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37197&amp;preview_nonce=e98b9c3c62&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Women in climate hot spots face challenges adapting, Marty Logan</a>Already, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> is causing more frequent <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-waste-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">droughts</a>, flash floods and rising temperatures, reducing crop yields across Nepal. Climate change has lowered the water table and dried natural springs, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">snowline has receded across the Himalaya</a>, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">glaciers are retreating dramatically</a>.The shortage of water is already <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-and-dry-upper-mustang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forcing entire villages to relocate</a>, and the situation is expected to worsen in the next few decades as the dry season flow from snow-fed rivers declines because little ice remains to melt.Nepalis have been migrating for centuries to escape <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poverty</a>, indebtedness and monsoon failures. All these push factors have now been magnified by climate-related hazards, and are already resulting in increased mobility.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The carbon footprint of tourism</a>“We are witnessing a rapid rise in temperature and a resulting climate shift. But <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">people in rural mountainous</a> and coastal areas have not been able to adapt to these changes, forcing them to move,” explained climate expert Manjeet Dhakal, who is in Madrid for the United Nations climate summit, COP25, citing the example of pastoralists relocating in Mustang district because of prolonged drought.Scientists have had to revise estimates of the rate of global warming because the impact is being felt much earlier than expected, with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heat waves</a>, larger forest fires, more intense storms, unseasonal blizzards and extreme rainfall events. The past decade was the hottest ever on record, Europe saw its hottest ever June this year, sub-Saharan Africa experienced unprecedented drought, while Cyclone Fani triggered the evacuation and displacement of 3.5 million people in Bangladesh and India in May.Here in Nepal, over 80,000 people were infected with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dengue this monsoon</a> in an unprecedented outbreak that scientists said was exacerbated by a warming climate. Bara district recorded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/groound-zero-in-pheta/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a rare tornado</a> that killed 80 people, and razed villages. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/">Floods in the Tarai</a> are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/">getting worse every year</a>.“There are many reasons for people to migrate, but the additional stress from the risks of increased floods and droughts, or changes in farming or water supply, may just push people’s decision past the tipping point,” said David Molden, director of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). “For others, there may be no choice but to migrate if a water source is lost, or the damage from floods or droughts is too great.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda Dixit Migration usually begins as a temporary response, but many people have had to relocate permanently or have been displaced. Millions of climate refugees are moving across borders. Human mobility of any kind in the face of the changing climate will have an enduring impact on societies and economies.“When some members of a family migrate, the country’s dependence on remittance will increase. When entire families migrate, the country will lose a major portion of its labour force. Eventually, dependence on remittance and a shrinking labour force will inhibit the economy,” said Dhakal.As far back as 1990, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that the single greatest impact of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> would be on human migration. Now, experts are saying there may be 200 million climate refugees worldwide by 2050. By then, 42 million Bangladeshis and 36 million people in coastal India will have to relocate because of rising sea levels.A recent Oxfam report named climate change-fuelled disasters as the number one driver of internal displacement over the last decade, having forced more than 20 million people to leave their homes annually.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>, Editorial“If the current development pathway and governance persists, human mobility upheaval will have huge humanitarian and social costs. We in Nepal may not remain immune to this disruption even though we are landlocked,” says water expert Ajaya Dixit.Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, the executive committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism established a task force on displacement to develop recommendations to avert, minimise and address displacement due to climate change. Agencies, including the International Organisation for Migration, are building support for the second phase of the task force in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Madrid this week</a>.Climate migration is also being discussed in 25 panels and events at COP25. With a rising backlash against migrants and refugees worldwide, it is likely that climate change impacts will cascade, stretching institutional capacity and governance and increasing the cost of adaptation. As displaced people move onto other people’s land, political confrontation and conflict between native populations and migrants can result.Governments represented in Madrid need to devise policies not just to reduce emissions, but to deal with the political, cultural and economic fallout of climate migration.Says Dixit: “The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate crisis</a> poses an existential threat. Let us hope human ingenuity and collective wisdom will prevail to begin much needed transformative action.”

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