<figure><img width="640" height="295" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/637208299c7e80680e0b54d1jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Doti's Budar all snowed in. All Photos: RSS</figcaption></figure>Trans-Himalayan districts of Humla and Jumla as well as East Rukum in Karnali Province have been snowed in since Thursday night as yet another westerly storm system moved into Nepal.Kathmandu witnessed a rare winter thunderstorm, there had been 15mm of rain by noon on Friday with more wet weather on the way. The mountains on the valley rim have also got snow.Highways have closed due to heavy snow, and flights to many mountain districts have been cancelled.  <figure><img width="800" height="461" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/6372082c9c7e80680e0b54d2jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Roads in Jumla obstructed by snow. </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="2400" height="1650" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/6372082e9c7e80680e0b54d3jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="2400" height="1800" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/637208329c7e80680e0b54d4jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Nepal Army trying to clear the street of snow.</figcaption></figure>Darchula, Dadeldhura, Bajhang, Bajura and Doti districts in the far west also have been similarly affected. The Bhimdatta Highway which connects the seven districts in Sudur Paschim Province has also been obstructed, further impacting the movement of people in the region.The westerly system is bringing in moist warm air that is moving up the Himalaya and meeting the frigid air, creating storm cells. Kathmandu Valley experienced wind gusting up to 35 knots on Friday morning with driving rain. The maximum temperature on Friday is only 8.8°Celsius.The system is expected to bring more precipitation over central and eastern Nepal, but the sun will start shining again on Sunday.  <figure><img width="960" height="720" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/637208369c7e80680e0b54d5jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Locals play with snow in East Rukum.</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/637208389c7e80680e0b54d6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1862" height="1146">Nepali Times weekend weather

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Nepal’s wet, icy winter

<figure><img width="2872" height="1592" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd8d9c7e80680e0a0beejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The vast glacial debris field at Bhurmathang in the headwaters of the Melamchi River, which is being constantly washed down by heavy rains this monsoon. Photos: NDRRMA</figcaption></figure>This year’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monsoon season</a> showed that precipitation is moving higher up the mountains to the trans-Himalayan valleys, creating a whole new dimension of flood danger downstream.More rain is falling where it did not use to in rain-shadow regions like in Manang, Mustang, Dolpo. Heavy precipitation on loose glacial deposits have unleashed catastrophic debris flows like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-monsoon-mess-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">what is happening on the Melamchi watershed</a> this season.Some of these extreme weather events can be attributed to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/un-climate-report-declares-planetary-emergency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate change</a>, and underlines the need to be prepared for even worse floods in future. For this, we urgently need weather forecasting systems at higher altitudes, hazard mapping and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/texting-when-trouble,3857" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">early warning systems</a>.Heavy rainfall since June and the ensuing floods clearly showed that we lack high altitude weather stations above 3,000m. And even the monitoring stations at lower altitudes did not analyse the recorded data in time and transmit them in a timely manner. <figure><img width="1680" height="1111" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd909c7e80680e0a0befjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has installed only 12 weather and precipitation monitoring stations above 3,000m, out of 282 such stations across the country. Mustang district has 6 precipitation stations, Gorkha and Manang each have two stations, and there are only one in Doti and Jumla.These numbers are insufficient given Nepal’s topography and the rapidly changing global climate. The lesson from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this year’s floods</a> is that every hydropower or infrastructure project needs to install its own automatic precipitation station in its upper catchment for real time data and early warning.The rainfall station at Sermathang of Sindhupalchok did record 110.2 mm rainfall in 24 hours on 11 June, but this data was not analysed in time to transmit a warning and prevent floods. If it had, we would have known that a cloudburst of that magnitude in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">terrain weakened by the 2015 earthquake</a> could spell disaster. Precautions could have been taken downstream in the Melamchi-Indrawati valley, lives saved, and damage reduced.Nepal has four main glacier-fed river basins: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-kosis-sorrow-and-scope/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kosi</a>, Gandaki, Karnali and Mahakali, and 19 other sub-river basins. The catchment areas of these rivers also stretch across the Himalaya into China. There are 3,808 glaciers and 2,070 glacial lakes in Nepal. And then there is also permafrost above 5,000m. (Map, below) <figure><img width="665" height="380" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd949c7e80680e0a0bf0jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Nepal’s rivers are fed by groundwater discharge, monsoon rains, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacial melt</a>. However, the hydrological responses of snow-covered and glaciated zones are distinct from other areas. Debris deposits from past glacial advances behave differently when exposed to heavy rainfall, as we continue to witness in Bhrumathang region of the Melamchi River since June.  Climate change is now affecting both the monsoon dynamics and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">state of snow/glacier in the Himalaya</a>, and we have to aware and prepared for the consequences.Besides extreme weather events, the geological structure of the watershed also needs to be taken into account so that a detailed risk assessment can be made before embarking on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-plan-for-plenty-and-scarcity-of-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">expensive water supply projects like Melamchi</a>, and deciding on the location of future hydropower plants, bridges and roads.Past studies had already declared many areas of the Melamchi watershed as a hazardous zone and not suitable for construction of houses and other infrastructure. If such warnings had been heard and timely precautions taken, the damage this monsoon would have been considerably less.Based on the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, all Nepal maximum and minimum air temperatures increased by 0.56 oC and 0.02 oC per decade from 1971 to 2014. The w<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/mountainous-regions-face-catastrophic-impacts-without-urgent-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">arming is higher in the Himalayan region</a> than elsewhere. This means that even under the best-case scenario, the Himalaya could lose up to one-third more of its permanent ice during this century.This means increased hazard from snow and ice avalanches, flash floods due to the discharge of supra-glacial lakes, or Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). There is a danger that these disasters to be more intense and frequent as weather systems change.In October 2014, the power cyclone Hudhud which measured 2,000km in diameter spun out of the Bay of Bengal and made a direct hit on Central Nepal, dumping rain and snow in the Annapurna region, killing 43 people (including trekkers) in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/annapurnas-avalanche-and-blizzard-early-weather-warning-systems" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">blizzards and avalanche</a>.Indian and Nepali meteorologists had sent out warnings and forecast heavy precipitation, however due to the lack of proper risk reduction mechanisms and safety management skills, casualties were high.In January 2020, four Korean trekkers and three Nepali guides were swept away by an avalanche at Deurali on the Annapurna Base Camp trek. Although there has always been risk of avalanches in the Himalaya, very heavy snowfall with warming trends have increased the objective danger. Proper local forecasts could have warned trekkers in the area of the heightened risk.In two of the worst disasters in recent times, 42 people, including 13 Japanese trekkers, were killed in November 1996 when the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/saving-gokyo-from-itself/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gokyo region</a> near Mt Everest was hit by an unprecedented blizzard. In October 2005, 18 people including trekkers were killed in snow storms and avalanches in Manang.These and many other disasters show that post-monsoon cyclonic storms hitting Nepal at the peak of the trekking season must be more closely monitored and their local impact forecast accurately so early warning for specific areas can be issued. Fatalities can be reduced by finding ways to warn local communities, lodge owners, local governments, trekking outfits and guides, and build local capacity in search and rescue.The importance of having high altitude weather and snow monitoring stations was also shown by the sudden increase in snow depth (1.65m) on the Rikha Samba Glacier in Mustang (5,200m) during the Hudhud cyclone on 15 October 2014. (See graph below.) <figure><img width="515" height="304" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd969c7e80680e0a0bf1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>A similar snow depth sensor on Yala Glacier in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/langtang-copes-with-quake-and-covid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Langtang Valley</a> also showed 0.5m increase in snow depth on the same day. Although the purpose of these stations were for scientific research into the impact of climate change on snow depth, and not for hazard prevention, the data could have been used for early warning about storm hazards in the high mountains.The lesson for us is that it is essential and urgent to strengthen the capacity of snow hazard risk reduction by letting local governments and communities have access to real-time data.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalaya has seen historic GLOFs</a>, and these debris flows are expected to be bigger and more frequent with climate change. On 4 August 1985, the Dig Tso glacial lake overtopped after an avalanche and swept down the Dudh Kosi, killing three and destroying a hydropower plant, 14 bridges and 35 houses.The disaster prompted the government to start studying glaciers and glacial lakes in Nepal, and major GLOF events have been recorded (see table). Risk reduction has also involved lowering the water level of Tso Rolpa glacial lake in Rolwaling by 3m and Imja glacial lake  in Khumbu by 3.4m. <figure><img width="456" height="137" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd989c7e80680e0a0bf2jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>A recent study by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) classified 47 glacial lakes in Nepal, China and India as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">potentially dangerous</a>. Of these, 25 are in China, 21 in Nepal and 1 in India. Of the potentially dangerous lakes in Nepal, 17 are on the Arun River basin, out of which only 4 are in Nepal and 13 upstream in China. Most of the immediate risk to infrastructure and settlements in the Arun River, therefore, emanate from across the border and this calls for trans-boundary cooperation in early warning. On 18 June 2021, heavy rainfall triggered <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/manpower-and-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">landslides blocked the Rongsi River in China</a>, a tributary of the Tama Kosi. The Chinese authorities informed Nepal about the possibility of a flashflood in case the landslide dam was breached. Fortunately, the Chinese safely drained the lake averting the possibility of a flood. In such events also, a high altitude weather and snow monitoring station would have provided early warning so that precautions could be taken downstream.Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, PhD, is a glaciologist at the Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate and Disaster Research Center of Kathmandu University.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd999c7e80680e0a0bf3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="89" height="104">

Nepal needs weather stations in the Himalaya

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca9b9c7e80680e08bb77jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080"/>Kathmandu Valley witnessed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/kathmandu-air-pollution-hits-record-high/">hazardous levels of air pollution</a> on 4-5 January 2021, with the Air Quality Index (AQI) highest among cities in the world that week. The pollution level had been stable or slightly below the daily average in the preceding days.Air pollution over an area is determined by emissions and their transport. Sources of pollution can be both local and remote, whereas it can be carried into and out of the area depending on its geographical setting and atmospheric condition.Understanding the role of geography and seasonal climatic variations in altering air pollution levels in Nepal has been generally well understood. The role of weather events in air pollution fluctuation is of key importance in predicting pollution levels across the country. Predicting weather therefore is closely related to predicting air pollution.Pollution forecasting a few days in advance has practical as well as policy implications. If pollution levels can be predicted a few days in advance, people can plan their activities accordingly. It also allows the government ample time to introduce temporary restrictions to reduce the severity of pollution during adverse weather conditions.The alarming levels of pollution in Kathmandu Valley in winter has been receiving much publicity, and has been a matter of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dirty-politics-dirty-air/">serious concern</a>. The high pollution episode on 4-5 January got widespread publicity in the media, raising public awareness about the issue.Residents of Kathmandu already taking precautions against the Covid-19 pandemic were made conscious of the additional hazards of poor air quality on their health.As the PM2.5 AQI (the concentration of fine particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter) exceeded 600 at its peak in some areas of the Valley, the Department of Environment (DoE) issued a press release on 5 January, urging people to remain indoors as far as possible and refrain from making open fires. It was also advised that the high level of pollution could prevail for some time, depending on how weather impacted its diffusion.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca9d9c7e80680e08bb78jpeg.jpg" alt="AQI graph" width="719" height="541"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Research has shown that the lifespan of some Nepalis has been <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/air-pollution-decreases-life-span,3999">reduced by up to five years</a> because of the air we breathe. Advance knowledge of the situation would have been more useful for the public.Every time there is a discourse on Kathmandu’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking/">pollution situation</a>, experts flag their opinions citing the topography of the valley and winter inversion as the major factors that trap polluted air.In the case of the early January pollution event, however, the air pollution level decreased to pre-episode level from 6 January onwards, which promoted an analysis of the impact that cloud cover from a westerly front had on AQI.The daily and hourly time series of air pollution level and concentration of gases was recorded by air quality monitoring stations for the analysis. A newly established Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) monitoring station at Nagarkot as well as from other measurements in the valley were used. The vertical atmospheric profile measured by DHM’s radiosonde station at Kirtipur, satellite imagery and surface weather charts related to the first week of January were reference points.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636ccaa09c7e80680e08bb79png.png" alt="DHM’s Radiosonde station at Kirtipur" width="1600" height="342"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>A comparison of the time series of high-frequency PM2.5 counts shows that hazardous air quality levels were recorded within the Kathmandu Valley in Bhaisepati, Bhaktapur and Ratna Park areas. These measurements were also compared to air quality in cities across Nepal.Air quality deteriorated to dangerous levels from the afternoon of 4 January till the morning of 6 January, whereas such counts were comparable to those recorded before and after the hazardous air level episode in Nepalganj, Dang, Pokhara, Hetauda.A comparison of AQI PM2.5 daily average time series shows that their values on 4 and 5 January is comparable with the values on preceding days at the same stations outside the valley, whereas it dropped by 30% or more on 6-7 January for Nepalganj, Dang, and Pokhara stations.However, the stations at Ratna Park and Bhaisepati recorded a 50% rise in pollution levels on 4 and 5 January, whereas the Bhaktapur station recorded only a 15% rise.In contrast, the Nagarkot station recorded better air quality by about 40% or more from 4-7 January. Similarly, the concentration of ozone, nitrous oxides, carbon monoxide and black carbon-8 (soot particles) also came down by about 10% or more in Nagarkot during the period compared to preceding days, which is consistent with the reduction of AQI PM2.5 there.It is worth noting that Nagarkot and surrounding regions on the eastern rim of the Valley are considered as the primary outflow region for wind-blown pollutants from inside the valley trough since upper-level wind is predominantly westerly across Nepal in winter. In fact, this was why the DHM selected Nagarkot as the site for establishing an air quality monitoring station.The differences in the daily average for the AQI PM2.5 count for the stations in the Valley and that at Nagarkot are of particular interest. The measurements for 4-6 January could mean that the stations could be valuable in enhancing our understanding of the variation of ambient air quality in the valley over time, and the transport of pollutants.Data from the radiosonde station at the premises of Tribhuvan University Kirtipur is being released regularly at 5:45AM since March 2019. Attached to a hydrogen balloon, the radiosonde measures temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction at different elevations and transmits the data to a ground station.Globally, there are hundreds of such stations that make measurements once or twice a day, synchronously providing valuable insight into the global weather pattern at different altitudes.Comparing the Kirtipur data on 1-5 January, there is a clear indication that ground-level inversion was present on both days. This happens when a layer of cold air is trapped by warmer air above it. Ground-level inversion occurs almost every day during winter in the Valley, and has the effect of concentrating overnight pollution.The stronger the inversion, and deeper and stronger the stable layer, which makes it harder for a parcel of air to rise as it will be relatively colder, hence denser, than its surrounding. Consequently, it is squeezed downwards.Hence, pollutants suspended in the bottom layer of the atmosphere are pretty much confined within the inversion layer. The shallower the depth of inversion, the higher is the concentration of air pollutants, even with the same amount of emission load, since they are confined in a smaller volume near the ground.On most days during the winter, ground-level inversion is gradually established in the Kathmandu Valley from the evening and intensifies in the night, but it weakens as it is burned away by the sun during the morning, disintegrating by noon. Once the inversion decays, the bottom layer of air mixes with the higher levels of the atmosphere, leading to lowering of air pollution level at the surface.In addition, as the wind picks up towards the afternoon, much of the air pollution is blown away to the east, leading to a reduction of the concentration of air pollutants in the Valley.However, from the afternoon of 3 January till the morning of 6 January, Nepal was under the influence of a westerly disturbance, and the most parts of the country were covered by high clouds (Figure 3) with light scattered precipitation in the western parts of the country.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636ccaa29c7e80680e08bb7ajpeg.jpg" alt="Satellite images of weather" width="1429" height="437"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The overcast condition, however, prevented the sun from dissipating the inversion and prevented the mixing of the lower atmospheric levels with upper layers over most parts of Nepal, including Kathmandu Valley.It can be inferred that the surface inversion did not fully disintegrate on those days though it would have been weakened and lifted slightly higher in the afternoon. This is also supported by the relatively calm winds recorded in the afternoons of 4 and 5 January, at Kirtipur and Khumaltar stations (Figure 5).<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636ccaa49c7e80680e08bb7bjpeg.jpg" alt="global solar radiaion" width="1414" height="365"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636ccaa59c7e80680e08bb7cjpeg.jpg" alt="wind speed" width="1417" height="344"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Daily average AQI PM2.5 values in stations outside Kathmandu valley remained more or less stable from last week of December to 5 January, which goes to show that the higher concentration of PM2.5 in the Kathmandu Valley on 4-5 January was mostly contributed by the local sources. Moreover, the relatively lower levels recorded at Nagarkot station on the same days is likely due to confinement of pollutants within the valley.With the passage of western disturbance, the sky over Kathmandu Valley became clear from the early morning of 6 January. As a result, mixing of the bottom layer of air with the higher levels became possible, thus leading to subsequent dissipation of pollutants from the valley floor much sooner than anticipated.Short term changes in the weather conditions can lead to a significant variation in the level of air pollution in the Kathmandu Valley, especially during the winter season. It is interesting to note that adverse weather conditions alone can significantly enhance the pollution level in the valley even when the socio-economic activities remained subdued after the onset of Covid-19 pandemic in the last spring in Nepal as well as globally.More collaboration among the government agencies engaged in air pollution and weather monitoring and forecasting, and researchers is required. Moreover, there is a need to further strengthen the capacity of various agencies so that citizens can be informed not just about prevailing pollution levels, but forewarned a few days in advance about impending episodes of a hazardous deterioration in the AQI level.Partnering to share information about prevalent pollution levels will <a href="http://dhm.gov.np/climate/">provide valuable returns</a> on recent investments made by the government in establishing and maintaining online air quality monitoring and meteorological stations.Jagdishwor Karmacharya and Shanti Kandel are with the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. Sunny Maharjan, Kamal Datta Acharya and Bikash Nepal helped analyse the results. A more technical version of this article can be found at ‘Climatic Articles, Reports and Papers’ section in the <a href="http://dhm.gov.np/climate/">DHM website</a>.

How weather elevates air pollution in Kathmandu

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636badaa9c7e80680e077fa9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2442" height="1218"/><figcaption>Satellite radar image at 1030AM on Sunday showing a series of monsoon pulses moving across Nepal from east to west.</figcaption></figure>The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has forecast more heavy rains this week, as a new monsoon pulse moves east to west across Nepal. The central mid-mountains and Tarai, already battered by deadly landslides last week is already feeling the brunt of this new system with Kapilvastu getting more than 50mm of rain overnight. The department has issued a warning on the Bandganga River, which is already flowing above the danger mark. The smaller rivers in the region are already swollen and are moving down across the border to India. More than a 100 people have been either killed or are missing in the rains last week in Nepal.  The department has said the monsoonal trough will move slowly across the country and will last till at least Friday 24 July.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636badad9c7e80680e077faajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="645" height="388"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>"We have already informed local governments about the risk of landslides and floods, but we advise all individuals and households to take their own precaution and even relocate to the homes of relatives and friends for the time being if they live in high risk areas," Anil Pokhrel of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority. He said the Authority and the Department had concluded that there was a high risk of water-induced disasters in the coming week. The Authority has also opened a hotline at 1149 and 1155 for queries about flood risk is said to be highest in Provinces 1,2 and 5, as well as Bagmati and Gandaki. It also said there might be heavy isolated rainfall in the far west of the country. It advised residents to keep away from small mountain streams and rivulets, avoid steep slopes, and keep away from the floodplains of rivers in the Tarai.

Heavy monsoon rains forecast for Nepal

<figure><img width="3000" height="2000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad0e9c7e80680e077f6djpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Floods over the weekend in Damauli, Tanahu inundates a settlement. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>This year’s monsoon rains started early, and have been heavy. But total precipitation for June and the rainfall recorded for the past five days in Central Nepal have not been above normal. The past week saw a convergence of moisture from both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branches of the southwest monsoon which did bring isolated heavy rainfall in parts of the central-west mountains and eastern Nepal. Kathmandu Valley saw 70mm of rain between 5-13 July, which is about normal for this time of year. However, disaster management experts say many of the deadly landslides were triggered by haphazard road construction that disturbed the slopes and natural drainage, while in the plains floods have been made worse by poorly designed roads, urbanisation of floodplains, deforestation and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/11/chure-denudation-and-floods/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/11/chure-denudation-and-floods/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFCqsvpsn5HYhB586N2oFbF6G89aQ">sand extraction in the Chure</a>, as well as embankment building across the border in India. “The rivers all flow down from the Chure, and the soil erosion is raising the level of the river beds making floods damage of the fertile farms of the Tarai worse,” says Nagdev Yadav of the Community Development and Advocacy Forum in Province 2. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" rel="noopener noreferrer">Preparing for floods during a lockdown</a>, Diya Rijal <figure><img width="1800" height="1350" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad129c7e80680e077f6ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>After the 2017 flood, a <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/59123" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/59123&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG2UMNeWggs8Sfg28kpRCZLnVORUQ">study</a> by Practical Action concluded: ‘The increased intensity of the flood impact was caused by improper drainage system in cities, cross-border embankment, and elevated roads in borders, causing more inundations in the Tarai.’Co-author of that study, climate risk expert Madhab Uprety adds that this year saw <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/115833" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/115833&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNElsF8qcXyJBAIKBE4sqp1nOep0hg">30% </a>higher pre-monsoon precipitation in April-May. The top soil on mountain slopes were therefore already saturated when the main monsoons hit, making them more prone to landslides.According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) there were already 120 major landslides from June 14 to July 8. So far, the death toll is 60 killed and 42 missing with many injured. At least 150 families have been affected by the landslides. Experts who analysed the deadly flash-flood on two tributaries of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/mycity/2016/07/10/bhotekosi-flash-flood/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/mycity/2016/07/10/bhotekosi-flash-flood/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEJHkX34E8aRX2MQKumOUc6Xh61HA">Bhote Kosi</a> on the night of 7 July conclude that a combination of heavy rain and bad engineering on a road up the mountain caused the slope failure. ‘There is a newly-constructed road above the stream that brought down the flashflood that swept away 14 houses,’ <a href="https://twitter.com/bewitchkapil/status/1281594409130303489" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/bewitchkapil/status/1281594409130303489&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZHfsbOS-EbvDAiiJ7EcL2Yw10ag">tweeted water resource engineer Kapil Dhital</a>. ‘There is too much mud flow on that tributary.’ Indeed, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nowhere-to-nowhere/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nowhere-to-nowhere/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQEAhbJTo8lVldGZff9tWqLa1Eug">haphazard road construction</a> without inputs from bio-engineers cause rock falls even in the dry season. When the rains come the entire slopes on which the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-fatalistic-ke-garne-culture/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-fatalistic-ke-garne-culture/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFFVdxRaH5SFr3WhnDA57oY6NxM6A">roads are hurried dug by excavators</a> are prone to failure. It is then the settlements and farm terraces below them where people are killed and farms destroyed.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad159c7e80680e077f6fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1238" height="960"> <figure><img width="1050" height="591" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad189c7e80680e077f70jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This year’s flood and landslide damage comes on top of the economic hardships caused by the coronavirus crisis. Hundreds of thousands of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/?fbclid=IwAR2hLhLIYQs0YPLP6NvO113PbYjIW_1_RTAXFHUzRHABK3nJrFaVp8f34hk" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/?fbclid%3DIwAR2hLhLIYQs0YPLP6NvO113PbYjIW_1_RTAXFHUzRHABK3nJrFaVp8f34hk&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFb--VQNcZ6Ok9QpdvBvcSwbZDYaw">in-country migrants</a> and workers from overseas have returned to their villages. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHdMHfTuuMvP4A8EK2kxDtzGBl6ng">floods in the Tarai</a> is predicted to worsen the country’s overall food security situation.Other reasons for annual floods along the southern borderlands are the unilateral construction of flood control levees, road embankments without proper drainage in the Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Tension between India and Nepal means there is no immediate prospect of negotiations. It is not just in the plains. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bhaktapur-inundated/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bhaktapur-inundated/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHNyQ6-DkCvaQBLM_wpvlZhLbqKng">devastating flood</a> in Thimi and Bhaktapur in 2018 was blamed on natural drainage channels being blocked by boundary walls and encroachment on flood plains constricting river flow during the monsoon. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology is closely monitoring long-term weather forecasting and rainfall patterns this monsoon. “The trend of heavier-than normal pre-monsoon precipitation looks set to continue for the rest of the rainy season,” explains meteorologist Indira Kandel. This is bound to make flooding and landslides even worse towards the tail end of the monsoon when the topsoil is even more saturated, and the Tarai plains are already waterlogged. At the NDRRMA, the strategy is to have a proper early warning system in place, using remote sensing satellite weather data, rainfall measurements in the catchment areas, and monitoring of river flow so that settlements downstream have time to move to higher ground and shelters. <figure><img width="1452" height="792" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad1b9c7e80680e077f71jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>A network of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNER33gouTpe9lIHPQ3cH8FWwLubzg">community-based early warning systems</a> are also in place to relay the data to villages that are vulnerable to flooding – especially along and downstream from the Chure Hills. “We have installed instruments for early-warning on the Rato River between Mahottari and Dhanusha so that if the water level rises above the danger mark, the information is passed on to communities lower down, and the police, army and Red Cross alerted,” says Nagdev Yadav, whose organisation is trying to broaden the scope of early-warning to also forecast the impact on farms and crops. However, despite the early warning network throughout the country through SMS, radio and social media, many people still do not take it seriously. They may also not have anywhere safer to go, and there is no landslide hazard risk mapping for villages in the mountains.“When people have to evacuate from the warning, they tend to only do it at the last moment when the water has come into their houses, and this causes more death and destruction,” says Madhab Uprety. On Saturday, the streets of far-west Tarai city of Mahendranagar were flooded. There had been heavy rain, but the inundation was caused more by poor drainage and blocked streams. “It only rained for one day, but it caused widespread submergence of the streets because of blocked drains, the spread of the city into the floodplains, and the squatter settlements along the rivers,” explains disaster management expert Himalaya Thapa.  <figure><img width="768" height="576" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bad1e9c7e80680e077f72jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Mahakali Municipality in western Nepal was also hit by floods last week, and Mayor Bir Bahadur Sunar says it was not caused by heavy rain but by drainage issues. He says: “The inundation was not due to the overflow of the Mahakali River, but because water was trapped by road construction.” Another reason for flooding can be extreme weather events. Cloudbursts in which hundreds of mm of rain fall in just a few hours are common along the Himalaya, and can cause flooding and landslides even if rivers are flowing naturally, and there is adequate drainage. There is evidence that cloudburst are getting more frequent, and this has been <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594704182402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE8rQ9i7Hk-Hb5HNBQV-xgDtyv65g">attributed to climate change</a>.“The frequency of floods and landslides have increased over the years, and this could be caused by heavy rains, but in 2017 there were devastating floods even though the precipitation was not above normal,” Uprety says, summing up the dilemma. “Embankments made for flood protection but it confines the river and causes more floods. We also do not take into account the sediment load raising river beds.”

Don’t just blame God for floods and landslides

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a52e69c7e80680e05231fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1826" height="507"/><figcaption>Lhotse glacier, Chukung village to the far left. Photo: ALTON C BYERS</figcaption></figure>Most of the recent talk within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process and elsewhere has focused on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cutting greenhouse gas emissions</a> to reduce the impact of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a>.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-playing-victim-to-proactive-leadership-on-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mitigation</a> was the buzzword, and any mention of adaptation was avoided because for some it meant accepting defeat. But today, driven largely by the concerns of developing countries, which bear the brunt of the climate emergency, adaptation is the key issue. But since adapting to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change is so closely linked with issues of power, governance and politics</a>, it is not well understood. Successfully adapting to climate change is often based on how individuals, households and communities switch and improve livelihoods.Given Nepal’s geographical, climate and ecosystem diversity from plains to mountains, the question is: what do people actually adapt to? Is it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rising temperatures and heat</a>, erratic rains, droughts, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/">floods</a>, forest fires or increased rates of diseases?Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Living below Nepal's melting mountains</a>, Alton C Byers <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Look what's cooking in Nepal</a>, Anil ChitrakarFamilies in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">high mountain valleys</a> may not have to worry about floods, but are affected when roads are blocked, severing access to markets. Those in the mid-mountains may be badly impacted by landslides, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">drying springs</a>, or declining agriculture production due to droughts.An adaptation strategy that works in an isolated mountain settlement will not work in Kathmandu. Though <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> is a global problem, its impacts are very local and different. National-level attempts to adapt will thus be unsuccessful, yet global conversations and the resultant aid flows continue to ignore sub-national differences.In 2001, the UNFCCC established a program for least developed countries that included financial and technical support to prepare National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPA) to meet ‘immediate and urgent’ adaptation needs. Today the conversation has moved to National Adaptation Plans (NAP) that focus on integrating climate risks into development planning and implementation.Nepal was late in preparing its NAPA, which turned out to be a temporary blessing in disguise. Using additional donor funding, the Ministry of Science Technology and Environment prepared a NAPA 'Plus' in 2009, which included a more consultative process to capture local nuances. In 2011, Nepal formulated a LAPA framework and also promulgated a climate policy stipulating that 80% of resources earmarked for the climate crisis would be allocated to local levels.Donor support was available and the country implemented LAPA programs in a few selected regions. But we still don’t know if the resources were really spent in rural areas, or if they made any difference.There are three major challenges for successful adaptation to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate impacts</a>. First is attribution: a localised weather event cannot be directly linked to climate change. Second relates to how people and institutions respond to new climate shocks, usually by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">local people meeting local needs</a>.Finally, individual adaptation strategies are most successful and enduring when people have access to drinking water, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clean energy</a>, information, finances and alternative sources of income, as well as the right to organise, express their voices and access political outlets.Given the rapid spread of the climate emergency, it is clear that existing project-based efforts cannot add up at scale. Our current understanding of adaptation offers very little by way of solutions for the scale of transformative shifts necessary now and into the future for Nepal and elsewhere. Based on the polluter pays principle, the developed world should indeed bear the cost of adaptation in developing countries to make up for historical emissions. But when our springs dry up, having more money may not be of much help.Even without climate change, Nepal faced challenges managing disasters and development. The climate emergency is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/life-in-the-time-of-tornadoes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">threat multiplier</a> that will seriously strain our socio-economic, political and ecological futures.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

The climate threat multiplier

<figure><img width="1800" height="996" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f6b9c7e80680e04fd07jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Dozers were required for the rescue of stranded locals and their motorbikes in Kavre during the floods caused by incessant rainfall across the country last week. Photo: RAJKUMAR PARAJULI/RSS</figcaption></figure>As nearly 300 scientists from 60 countries arrived in Kathmandu this week to attend the second meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to plan its next report, it is as if the rain god was waiting to remind them to be more forthright about the causal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link between climate change and weather</a>.After being <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-is-the-monsoon-this-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three weeks late</a>, unprecedented <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-2019-deluge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">monsoon squalls this year hit the country</a> with record precipitation in places. Floods and landslides killed nearly 80 people in Nepal, affecting millions of people downstream in India.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Weather warning for climate change</a>, Sonia Awale<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-is-the-monsoon-this-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Where is monsoon this year?</a>, Ajaya DixitIt must have been premonition that drove us to write <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an editorial in this space on 28 June</a> warning of just such a calamity. We said floods are an annual phenomenon in Nepal and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">farmers have learnt to live</a>, even benefit, from them. Floods are natural, we wrote, disasters are not.It is when we let the city expand into the floodplains of rivers, when <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Flood-on-the-border-Nepal-India,3915" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we construct ill-designed road embankments</a> or block natural drainage systems that floods claim lives. We saw ample evidence of that this week from the Kalanki and Nakkhu neighbourhoods of Kathmandu, where streams turned into raging brown torrents to reclaim their original courses.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Flood of recrimination</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Tarai learns from past floods</a>, Sewa BhattaraiAnd in Rautahat, which saw a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/nepal-flood-of-recrimination,3906" target="_blank" rel="noopener">repeat of the 2017 disaster</a> caused by flood control levees on the Bagmati narrowing the river, which was then dammed by a road embankment across the border in India. The fatalities were much less this time because the Indian embankment gave way, releasing the dammed water. But in the process, it inundated large parts of northern Bihar.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBPfkPQT0CEBad urban planning combined with climate-related weather extremes will surely lead to future catastrophes. The way to be prepared for them is to understand rivers, not block their paths to the sea. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/rivers-fighting-back,993" target="_blank" rel="noopener">river will always win</a>.This was a point driven home at the IPCC meeting in Kathmandu this week by co-chair of Working Group 2, Debra Roberts of South Africa. She told our reporter: “Kathmandu has been tested over the last week by an unusual monsoon – you need the people who run and design this city to have access to information on major global transitions like how urban infrastructure can cope with future climate events.” Indeed, urban infrastructure is one of the four major global transitions that countries need to pay attention to in coming decades, underlined the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPCC’s 1.5 Special Report</a> last year. The others are land use, industry and energy systems.The scientists writing the IPCC’s 6th assessment in Kathmandu this week will be focusing on adaptation and impact, but their final report will not be released till 2022. The danger is that, at the accelerated pace of warming that we are witnessing, the data used to predict impact will itself be outdated.Just as the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Himalayan Assessment</a> released by ICIMOD earlier this year showed, the warming trend is already <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">much worse than we thought</a>. Our mountains are warming up to 0.7oC degrees faster than the global average, melting and shrinking glaciers at an accelerated pace.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">On thin ice in the Khumbu</a>, Kunda Dixit <figure><img width="1500" height="1275" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f6e9c7e80680e04fd08jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>If we go on with business as usual, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">spewing the same amount of carbon</a> we do today, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two-thirds of the ice in the Himalaya</a> will be gone this century, with catastrophic effects for the up to 1.6 billion people living downstream.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ice-to-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ice and snow</a> get all the media attention, but weather extremes are already depleting aquifers and as groundwater levels drop, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">springs are going dry</a> in Nepal’s mid-mountains.Our governments have a tendency to blame all their past neglect and poor governance on the climate crisis. In fact, climate change is a god-sent excuse for them to do nothing. However as we know, Nepal’s poverty, dependence on rain-fed agriculture and lack of clean drinking water, are structural problems that pre-date climate change. The global climate emergency just makes all our existing development problems more challenging.What we have to be prepared for is that even the IPCC’s findings presented in Incheon and Katowice last year may be too optimistic, and that warming trends will certainly be much worse.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>, EditorialWe really do not need more evidence that the climate emergency is happening. The question is, what we are going to do about it. Being an inter-governmental body, the IPCC is a vital interface between scientists and politicians. Policymakers now need to turn the knowledge available into specific action for the local context. The old cliché may have to be turned around: act globally, think locally. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Ten years ago this week, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16123#.XTAAvPIzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">front page story</a> in Nepali Times by Prashant Jha from New Delhi (<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/460" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#460, 17 -23 July, 2009</a>) dealt with what Nepal-watchers in India's capital were thinking about the political goings-on in Kathmandu. Then, as now, Delhi seemed confused. Excerpt:‘There is a great deal of confusion in India about the political confusion in Nepal, but officials here say they want the Maoists to “reform internally” and support the Madhav Nepal government.Sections of the Indian establishment concede Nepal’s government suffers a legitimacy crisis. They insist that the process must move forward in the present framework. Indian officialdom wants the government now to try to get the political process back on track. India is learnt to have told Madhav Nepal to “keep the doors open” for the Maoists and constantly engage with them.’<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/460"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f729c7e80680e04fd09jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="700" height="1077"></a>

Act globally, think locally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aBw2nQHIJUThe monsoon this year has been delayed by more than two weeks, proving forecasters wrong. This has pushed back paddy planting season because two-third of Nepal's farms depend on rains. Rice plantation has started only in areas with irrigation channels.It is already 1 July, and paddy trans-plantation has begun in only 15% of farms, according to government statistics. This week saw some farmers in Bhaktapur and Budhanilkantha in Kathmandu Valley and neighbouring districts plant the season's first rice seedlings. But many of the farmers practicing subsistence rain-fed agriculture across Nepal are still waiting for the rains to arrive.Photojournalists Monika Deupala, Min Ratna Bajracharya and Bikram Rai travelled across Kathmandu Valley and surrounding districts to capture this season's rice planting ambience in photographs and video.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4de19c7e80680e04fc89jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"/><figcaption>A farmer in Barpak of Gorkha district uses a power tiller to plough his terrace in anticipation of rain. Photo: MIN RATNA BAJRACHARYA</figcaption></figure><h2>Photos from Nuwakot by Monika Deupala</h2><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4de59c7e80680e04fc8ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4de89c7e80680e04fc8bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4dec9c7e80680e04fc8cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4def9c7e80680e04fc8djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4df39c7e80680e04fc8ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4df69c7e80680e04fc8fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4df99c7e80680e04fc90jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><h2>Photos from Budhanilkantha by Min Ratna Bajracharya</h2><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4dfd9c7e80680e04fc91jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4e009c7e80680e04fc92jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1500"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4e039c7e80680e04fc93jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4e079c7e80680e04fc94jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><h2>Photos from Bhaktapur by Monika Deupala</h2><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4e0a9c7e80680e04fc95jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4e0d9c7e80680e04fc96jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><h2>Photo from Thecho by Bikram Rai</h2><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131136/636a4e119c7e80680e04fc97jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/mycity/2017/06/29/muddy-fest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Muddy Fest</a>, Gopen Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dhan-diwas/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dhan Diwas</a>, Gopen Rai and Bikram Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lifting-livelihoods-by-lifting-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lifting livelihoods by lifting water</a>, Sabina Devkota

Not so soon monsoon

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a36969c7e80680e048318jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="913"/><figcaption>Pic: GORAKH BISTA</figcaption></figure>Kathmandu is bursting at the seams, there is almost no room left to move. A lesson from the 2015 earthquake was that survivors need open spaces for shelter and safety: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/07/17/leaving-shelter/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tundikhel</a> housed tens of thousands and other green areas served as open-air shelters for months.But in the four years since, the Valley’s open spaces have shrunk further. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5876#.XMJOyzBKjIV" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Nepal Army has fenced off Tundikhel</a>, and construction material is dumped on what is left. On Thursday, hundreds of activists staged a protest to ‘Re-open the Open Air Theatre’ because the Municpality had allowed it to be turned into a parking lot.Kathmandu’s air pollution is made worse by the loss of its green lungs. The earthquake was a wake-up call, but it did not rouse anyone at the Municipality. The demand for real estate, soaring property prices, and collusion between the land mafia and local officials means the last open spaces owned by government schools, community parks and guthi are being sold off. When the Prime Minister’s residence at Baluwatar needed expansion, it found an adjacent government plot was already sold to individuals, including NCP General Secretary Bishnu Paudel.Disaster management agencies have identified <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/wide-open-spaces-kathmandu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">83 open areas</a> as refuges during future earthquakes, but they are also needed to make the city greener and to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/wide-open-spaces-Kathmandu,3181" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foster community interaction.</a>The national government has bungled, and elected municipalities have failed to improve the quality of urban life. It is now up to local communities and neighbourhoods to rally and protect their own open spaces. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/parks-not-parking-lots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Narayanchaur in Naxal</a> was upgraded by residents, proving that  urban renewal by restoring parks is possible.Activism to stop open spaces from being built up is gaining strength; public pressure can force the Muncipality to act to save what is left.

Houseful

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a36999c7e80680e048319jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Tornado in Bara. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>This is the season for windstorms, and even though the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/groound-zero-in-pheta/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">whirlwind</a> that hit the central Tarai on 31 March killing 28 people was a freak event, it was not the first to touch down in our part of the world.Novelist Amitabh Ghosh begins his 2016 non-fiction book, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/book-reviews-new-year-2074,3654" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable</a>, with his personal encounter with a funnel-shaped tornado that struck New Delhi on 17 March 1978. It killed 70 and injured 700 in just 2 minutes.Ghosh writes that the Indian Meterological Service said at the time: ‘This was, in effect, the first tornado to hit Delhi—and indeed the entire region—in recorded meteorological history.’Birganj-based journalist Chandra Kishore remembers a similar devastating vortex that destroyed parts of his Tarai village in the mid-1980s. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/toll-expected-to-double-to-50-in-tornado/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In Pheta</a> on the night of 31 March, most of the deaths were due to poorly built structures, not the actual tornado, proving once again that it is shoddily-built houses that kill people not natural events.When Ghosh encountered the tornado in 1978 in New Delhi, the Earth’s atmosphere had 334ppm (parts per million) of carbon dioxide. In the 19th century, before the industrial age, it was 280ppm. By 2019, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased to 411ppm, most of it because of fossil fuel emissions.With so much carbon in the atmosphere, climate change is no longer something that will happen in a distant future — <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it is happening now</a>. Events like the Tarai tornado are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-new-normal-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our new normal</a> and highlight the growing impacts of an erratic climate and its rising social and economic cost. No country is immune, all countries have to adapt and also cut their emissions by switching to renewable energy.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=25490&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal's electric transport future is here</a>, Sonia AwaleNepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) collects wind speed data at the airport to assist flight operations, for academic assessment of wind energy potentials and for designing buildings and infrastructure. Wind hazards have always been there, but death and destruction of the scale that Pheta witnessed has not been part of our understanding.As an under-budgeted and under-staffed entity, the DHM has the lowest priority from the Nepali state, preventing it from becoming a repository of climate knowledge. As one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, Nepal needs to upgrade its weather forecasting and early warning.The Pheta tragedy revealed a major gap in the DHM’s ability to ‘nowcast’ weather, the process of warning people about what is likely to happen in the next few hours at a spatial resolution of a few square kilometres. The department needs to be able to provide local, short-term forecasting, perhaps by collaborating with others like Tribhuvan University’s Physics Department.The twister also exposed gaps in our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disaster management institutions</a>. Nepal’s 2017 Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act has replaced the 1982 Natural Calamity Relief Act, so there are now 15 legal tools and guidelines covering the entire disaster cycle. However, these have not been contextualised for our local situation, where the understanding of national policies and laws is still limited.The Ministry of Home Affairs held a meeting of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Committee on 5 April, chaired by the Home Affairs Minister himself. It issued a 13-point decision to expedite relief and increase preparedness for the coming monsoon season.Province 2 has also taken a number of decisions including one to build prefabricated houses for the Pheta victims within four months. The government in Kathmandu, however, decided to assign the Nepal Army to rebuild the damaged houses. The army played a commendable role in rescue and relief efforts during the 2015 earthquake and in other disasters, but it is worth asking why it needs to be involved in reconstruction of private homes.The Nepal Army is there to defend our borders and be the first responder in a disaster; building houses is not its job. Reconstruction requires working iteratively with local governments to support victims in self-recovery and building back safer without reproducing past vulnerabilities. The National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) already has a track record of helping earthquake-affected families build houses, and it could have easily been assigned that responsibility in Pheta.Such complex institutional dynamics often create more constraints than solutions, at a time when there are new challenges due to climate change-induced disasters. Nepal’s national, provincial and local governments, and society by and large, do not have the necessary wherewithal to adapt and are the least prepared. The poor are the most vulnerable, and as Pheta proved, are likely going to pay the highest price.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

Life in the time of tornadoes

Born in Khandbari in eastern Nepal, Parashuram Pathak helped his family around the farm, sold what they grew in the market and lent a hand in the kitchen.&nbsp; After working as a chef in Dubai, San Francisco, Denmark, Australia, and on cruise ships, Pathak has now brought back what he has learnt to the Tusa Restaurant in Bhaktapur that opened on Nepali New Year on 13 April. Tusa uses fresh indigenous ingredients from various parts of Nepal, and fuses them with international methods to produce unique dishes. Pathak is a global Nepali, and is introducing global Nepali cuisine to his homeland. Pathak left an executive chef job to intern at three-Michelin-starred Noma in Denmark, named the best restaurant in the world five times. Noma runs on a philosophy of foraging to rediscover wild local ingredients, and Tusa’s mission is similarly noble: preparing dishes with Nepali ingredients using modern techniques and equipment. “We are taking Nepali food beyond dal-bhat and momo, we are taking it international,” Pathak said on the phone from Sydney. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-baker-rises-to-the-top-in-denmark">Denmark’s best baker is a Nepali</a>, Vishad Onta  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_1312bc016cbb2fe59c6d4a78d1f8b463af4a10b3f79559a2405fd54ea5b3197a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240419180424_1312bc016cbb2fe59c6d4a78d1f8b463af4a10b3f79559a2405fd54ea5b3197a" data-rendition-name="original" width="801" height="802" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Photo: PARASHURAM PATHAK/FACEBOOK</figcaption> </figure>  Pathak’s team in Nepal includes chefs Rupesh Bohara and Sagar Shrestha who have also worked extensively in Dubai and Australia, and share his vision. The three realised they shared the same dream, and over the past five years have travelled across Nepal to research their menu, collecting ingredients and ideas from homestays, food carts, and nature. The team then scouted for Nepal’s best architect, and zeroed in on Bhaktapur-based heritage conservationist Rabindra Puri who designed the Malla-era house for Tusa in the Nag Pokhari neighbourhood. Bohara and Shrestha have moved back to Nepal for good, and Pathak arrives in September. “I made dishes from all over the world, but when someone asked what Nepali food was like, I had no answer,” says Bohara, “I came back to find out.” &nbsp;“You can get citizenship, a green card, big houses and cars, but where is the self-satisfaction?” asks Shrestha, who has a red-and-blue chef’s knife with the sun and moon of the Nepali flag tattooed on his right forearm.&nbsp; Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/the-return-of-a-master-baker"> The return of a master baker</a>, Raju Pakhrin  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_c601264463e5a28d4e71a46781f340a53619a08d00949a7aaebfef84e75a319d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240419180424_c601264463e5a28d4e71a46781f340a53619a08d00949a7aaebfef84e75a319d" data-rendition-name="original" width="6000" height="4000" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Photos: TUSA</figcaption> </figure>  Bohara and Shrestha passionately recount stories of their trips across Nepal, speaking of generous lodge owners who introduced them to local ingredients. Tusa can seat 28, and dining here is a sensory experience with a live kitchen. The chefs cook and place dishes on a large granite countertop with induction sections built in. Behind the counter is a grill on an indoor fire with pulley control to adjust the fire. Everything that can be made in Nepal — chairs and tables, ceramic dishes, the grill — is locally sourced. The executive kitchen/laboratory is downstairs. It is spacious, spotless, and contains appliances rarely seen in restaurants here: a sous vide machine that cooks vacuum-sealed packets at consistent temperatures, and a dehydrator for sisnu nettles. A fresh batch of deep purple kimbu (mulberry) muffins has just come out of the oven. Fridges have dry-aged fish and marigold kombucha. Fermentation seems to be the theme at Tusa, and Pathak explained: “Fermentation takes away the natural sugars in food, leaving behind a true, umami taste.”&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/vikings-khukri-passion">Viking's khukri passion</a>, Alisha Sijapati  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_c59e2b4230864f646bc36108adb951e95ec85da6156740294b1ec715b86acf89.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240419180424_c59e2b4230864f646bc36108adb951e95ec85da6156740294b1ec715b86acf89" data-rendition-name="original" width="5895" height="3930" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> </figure>  Tusa itself means ‘shoot’ in Nepali, and can be a dish of fermented bamboo shoots. The restaurant serves a tasting menu with six courses, plus surprises. It starts with a fermented potato and millet roti with charred green garlic and tomato chutney. The bread tastes like a mix of alu paratha and kodoko roti with a satisfying, mild flavour. The chefs do not show off, and overdo it. Dishes are tastefully simple and faithful, a theme that runs through the meal. The second course is a filet of fish charred on one side and placed in a broth. It is delicate and smokey, and does not mask the character of the fish.&nbsp; The next is Batuk Chukauni, a Magar dish with a lentil snack and a yoghurt-based potato achar. The batuk, made of lentil batter, is light and the chukauni has potatoes and peas. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/money-is-not-everything-but-you-need-money-for-everything">"Money is not everything, but you need money for everything"</a>, Rohit Shrestha  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_e3f51228ff792e8d4297f81f8e67d138584e922ae035d131977494219e5e85c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240419180424_e3f51228ff792e8d4297f81f8e67d138584e922ae035d131977494219e5e85c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Batuk Chukauni. Photo: VISHAD ONTA</figcaption> </figure>  Next is a skewer of jackfruit with a tamarind and mustard glaze that has the texture of a slice of sausage and melts in the mouth. Then comes the first off-menu item: a steak of watermelon, glazed and grilled, tasting sweet, sour and smokey. After that a palate cleanser sorbet made with laligurans syrup adorned with a frozen candied rhododendron petal. Finally the main course: barbeque chicken and chyakla coarse corn grits. The chicken has been brined, marinated, cooked sous-vide and seared on the grill. The delicate consistency of the chicken stands out. Desert is a smooth, creamy cheesecake that uses the local juju-dhau yoghurt. And the last course is a moist, moss-green sisnu cake laced with mulberry jam and cream.&nbsp; There is nothing gimmicky about Tusa. It is the coming together of skilled Nepalis with international exposure who have mixed what they have learnt abroad with the flavours of home.&nbsp; The tasting menu is Rs3,500, and it may take some time before Nepalis develop a predilection for some of its items. The chefs are excited, vindicated, and relieved. Coming back to Nepal, uprooting successful careers abroad to take a chance on Nepal must not have been easy.&nbsp; Tusa had a soft launch on New Year’s day with Kathmandu-based diplomats. Australian Ambassador Felicity Volk was one of them, and wrote on a Facebook post: ‘Chefs who honed their skills in Australia and returned to Nepal to give back. We call it fine dining, they call it #cominghome.’ Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/the-baker-of-barpak">The baker of Barpak</a>, Tara Aryal Pandey

The return of the natives

For a year or two after the 25 April 2015 earthquake, the residents of Kathmandu were too terrified to return to their high-rise apartments. None of them collapsed in the 7.8 disaster, but many sustained serious structural damage. &nbsp;
Fast forward nine years, and they have all but forgotten that frightful day. Kathmandu is back to building substandard structures, even as land prices drive developers to build taller.&nbsp;
With no more space to spread horizontally, Kathmandu is going vertical. But structural engineers say most of the high rises do not take into account seismicity, soil condition, construction methods, quality of raw materials, fire hazard, and search and rescue in collapsed concrete structures.
“Much of our focus since the 2015 earthquake has been on building and construction, but not as much on where we are building,” warns Sangeeta Singh, Professor of Urban Planning and Deputy Director of Centre for Disaster Studies at the Institute of Engineering.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale
She adds: “Kathmandu is not really suited for high-rises. We have to first test the condition of the soil, but building permits are being issued without this fundamental step.”
Kathmandu Valley is a former lakebed with soft topsoil prone to liquefaction and excessive shaking, as seen during the 1934 megaquake. Many ruptures tore up the surface in 2015. &nbsp;
During an earthquake, the rock layers below Kathmandu ring like a bell and the vibrations on the surface take between 0.5 to 2 seconds for one oscillation. Buildings also vibrate, but at different frequencies depending on their height, construction material, and arrangement of their structural components.
At five floors, the vibration period of a building is 0.5 seconds, which is the same as that for Kathmandu Valley, and this could cause more damage, says structural engineer Surya Narayan Shrestha at the National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET).
“Building anything that is five storeys or higher in Kathmandu needs special design and structural considerations,” says Shrestha.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/shaking-things-up">Shaking things up</a>, Editorial
Technologies exist to reduce seismic risk in high-rises, and these are used in earthquake-prone cities like Tokyo, Los Angeles, Jakarta or Mexico City.&nbsp;
Base isolation, for example, separates the vibration of the land and the building, reducing damage from soil-building resonance. Base isolators move and stretch under pressure, absorbing much of an earthquake's impact by reducing swaying and shaking. &nbsp;
Seismic dampers change the pattern of vibration altogether, dissipating energy as vibrations move across a structure. But these are all expensive technologies, and none of the high-rises in Kathmandu use them.
However, Nepali engineers who can help with technology transfer are working in the field in Nepal and overseas. Kathmandu’s high-rises are already very expensive, and making them seismic-resistant would be an incremental cost.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/learning-from-jajarkot-what-we-didnt-after-2015-695vpzle">Learning from Jajarkot what we didn't after 2015</a>, Sushil Gyewali
The shape of high-rises also matters. Reinforced concrete buildings with asymmetric designs of the kind that are seen in newer structures in Kathmandu experience more torsion and shear during quakes. High-rises with regular geometry are stronger. &nbsp;&nbsp;
An even bigger concern is that of emergency evacuation and rescue in case of fire or earthquake. Kathmandu fire services do not have ladders that reach the higher floors of most new structures.
“High-rises mean more people and potentially higher casualties,” explains Shrestha. “We need immediate evacuation routes, fire escapes, emergency ladders, and fire trucks that can reach higher. Right now, safety features are voluntary and not mandatory.”
The street access, shelters, open spaces, and evacuation routes are integral to disaster preparedness and the safety of neighbourhoods and not just buildings. Most new high-rises in Kathmandu have narrow access roads.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later">Rebuilding resilience 7 years later</a>, Anil Pokhrel
Since most of the buildings that survived the 2015 disaster were reinforced concrete structures, it fed the misconception that they are safer. But Himalayan seismologists say that if the intensity and duration of the shaking had been just a little higher, many substandard concrete structures would have collapsed.&nbsp;
And that is the final gap: Nepal’s limited expertise and equipment for search and rescue inside collapsed concrete structures. Kathmandu’s high-rises need to be better prepared for the next Big One.
“Structural safety and design were at the front and the centre after the 2015 earthquake, we also revised some building codes but we are back to square one with contractor-driven construction, especially in peri-urban areas,” says Sangeeta Singh, who is also with the National Planning Commission. “We need to monitor construction as much as design.”&nbsp;
Shrestha at NSET agrees there have been improvements in building practices in the past nine years, but adds, “We have both learnt and unlearnt lessons from 2015. The awareness hasn’t yet translated into action on safety.”
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">Lessons not learned from 2015</a>, Sonia Awale

The rise of high-rises

Midway along the stretch of the ancient trade route between Tibet and India lies the Kel Tol neighbourhood. The name is derived from the original Koligrām, and it is believed the Koli people, who were originally from Rāmagrām in present-day southern Nepal near the Indian border, settled here. The Koli were the maternal ancestors of none other than the Buddha. Kel Tol is famous for the Buddhist monastic complex of Kanak Chaitya Mahāvihar, featuring the majestic two-tiered gilded temple of the white god Karunāmaya.&nbsp; This elaborately decorated courtyard is a bustling centre of the Vajrayāna sect of Buddhism, practised widely by the indigenous Newā people of Kathmandu Valley. Karunāmaya, also known as Ārya Avalokiteshwor, is defined in great detail in the 1st century CE Buddhist text Sadharmapundarikā where he liberates all sentient beings from suffering. He helps rid the eight external fears metaphorically equated with their equivalent internal states of mind: lions (pride), wild elephants (ignorance), fire (anger), snakes (jealousy), floods (attachment), imprisonment (miserliness), thieves (wrong views) and cannibals (doubt).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_fe370cbee75003cd3eb5dccc7c3b2671630da193b0744db2aeac1bab3ff4a85c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240418130432_fe370cbee75003cd3eb5dccc7c3b2671630da193b0744db2aeac1bab3ff4a85c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1338" height="2000" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  In the Pancha Rakshyā Sutra, a Buddhist scripture from 200 CE, Ārya Avalokiteshwor was counted among the eight major deities. Followers of the Brāhminical god Shiva worship Ārya Avalokiteshwor as Seto Machhindranāth. For Shaivites, Machhindranāth is the Indian saint who founded the Nāth cult in the 10th century CE. He is the guru of saint Gorakhnāth. During the reign of Yakshya Malla (1428–1482 CE), a beautiful image of Ārya Avalokiteshwor was dug up by a farmer in present-day Jamal, which was then a cultivated area outside the city. The farmer, known as a Jamami (meaning the one from Jamal) took the image home for safekeeping. That night, Ārya Avalokiteshwor appeared in the farmer’s dream and told him that the proper place for him to reside is at the confluence of two rivers. The nearest confluence was at present-day Wongha (Indrachok) and the image was installed in the Kanak Chaitya Mahāvihar complex in Kel Tol near Wongha. This made it easier for city residents to pay homage to Ārya Avalokiteshwor and spread compassion. Soon, the deity came to be revered highly as Jamaleshwor, the one found in Jamal. Eventually, the name got corrupted, as happens often in Nepāl Bhāsā, to Janabahā Dyo. The courtyard where his temple is located is now popularly known as Janabahā.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_5c9b219530e400445ef4e7f64856b43e7cdb756be26d9ed4565c84044c178a7e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240418130432_5c9b219530e400445ef4e7f64856b43e7cdb756be26d9ed4565c84044c178a7e" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1668" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  The gilded temple of Janabahā Dyo, first built in the early 16th century CE, is adorned with wooden and metal artefacts that symbolise 108 forms of Ārya Avalokiteshwor. It stands out as the most decorated temple of its kind in Kathmandu. Today, Janabahā is a living heritage site where many ancient customs and rituals are widely practised as per Vajrayāna Buddhist tradition. Devotees throng the Janabahā Dyo shrine for daily worship and to receive Karunāmaya’s blessings. Being the compassionate one, Ārya Avalokiteshwor goes around town every year in his tall wooden chariot to allow sick and physically disabled devotees to pay homage to him from the comfort of their homes. One could say it is a door-to-door visit by the Compassionate One.&nbsp; For the pragmatic minded, the chariot festival is an annual renewal of communal harmony, validation of our ancient mathematical supremacy and demonstration of the need to keep practical skills alive, including the craft of building earthquake resilient houses.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_fc8b234ceca87dee4b99e897a485cef121fb953857fb61492a413fbfcc48360c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240418130432_fc8b234ceca87dee4b99e897a485cef121fb953857fb61492a413fbfcc48360c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  The Janabahā Dyo chariot is pulled from Jamal, where his image was found by the farmer, through the historic heart of Kathmandu in a gala parade every year. The procession, accompanied by folk music ensembles and revellers, starts on the eighth day of the bright half of the month of Chaitra, and lasts up to a week (ending on Saturday this year). Hundreds of devotees pull the chariot along the streets as a way of expressing their gratitude to lord Karunāmaya for blessing them with compassion and well-being. Purna Ratna Vajrāchārya is an ordained priest who belongs to the clan responsible for taking care of Janabahā Dyo. He has been studying the design and architecture of the chariot for the past 40 years, and overseeing its construction for the past 15. He has learnt that the engineering principles of building the chariot are based on the mathematical system in which Buddhism is taught. For example, 365 pieces of wood are used in the chariot, each representing a day of the year. Each of the four wheels consist of 25 pieces of wood, totalling 100, representing completeness or fulfilment. The chariot is vertically divided into 13 sections, a parallel to the Buddhist concept of Trayodashi Bhuvana that describes the 13 steps that one must take to achieve the state of Nirvana.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_36d9964c9845f6d9a074786361fc5ab7d49138503ad162086998b731349b0ec0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240418130432_36d9964c9845f6d9a074786361fc5ab7d49138503ad162086998b731349b0ec0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1668" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_2662753a9514a682ccdfd17bf05e2be3771183a68dc86b717ab67d9aad894563.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240418130432_2662753a9514a682ccdfd17bf05e2be3771183a68dc86b717ab67d9aad894563" data-rendition-name="original" width="1668" height="2500" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  &nbsp;Exactly nine types of wood are used, which is the sum of the four base elements that make up the universe (earth, water, fire and air) and the five human senses. The height and length of the chariot is 32 arm’s length (hāt in Sanskrit), 14.8m. The number 32 represents the maximum number of auspicious and physical qualities one could possess to be considered an outstanding human being.&nbsp; Says Vajrācharya, “Observing how the chariot is built helps one learn the fundamental pillars of the Buddha’s teachings, and find an easier path to Nirvana.” The structural design of the nearly 15m wooden chariot is not only awe-inspiring but also gravity-defying. It leverages the pliancy of the materials used in its construction -- flexible joints tied with cane soaked in water for several days. The precise proportions of the chariot ensure great manoeuverability in the narrow streets along the route of the chariot procession that include some 90° bends, without colliding into houses.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_9f5c2943f5d6b3f0010d3d5213697549945e87a6f7d3d8cbadd69f0dea6c6e2c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240418130432_9f5c2943f5d6b3f0010d3d5213697549945e87a6f7d3d8cbadd69f0dea6c6e2c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="3750" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  Driving and steering the chariot with brute muscle power of the mirthful crowd is a seemingly impossible task. But this has been achieved year after year, despite the fact that the devotees who tug wildly at the ropes lassoed to the two front wheels, are most likely in high-spirits (pun intended). Sanjay Manandhar, a US-based technology entrepreneur, recounts how his high school physics teacher from Canada asked his students to go observe the locals build the chariots of Karunāmaya if they were interested in becoming engineers in the future.&nbsp; “That made no sense to me then, but, after all these decades, I now see clearly how the structural design of the chariot, adopted early on by our ancestors is full of earthquake-resilient properties that need to be applied in building houses in an earthquake-prone zone like Nepal,” says Manandhar. A highlight of the chariot festival is that human goddess Kumari makes an appearance at the final destination in Lagan, usually on the third day. This is only one of the 13 times that people get to see the Kumari outside her temple abode.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_08aa39f3f004a212b33c60a2840d6013110de15dd34a0288f699dd5fda8957ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240418130432_08aa39f3f004a212b33c60a2840d6013110de15dd34a0288f699dd5fda8957ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  On the last day of the festival (Saturday), the image of lord Karunāmaya is carried on a palanquin by priests from Janabahā in a gala procession and brought back to his permanent residence at the temple in Kel Tol.&nbsp; The chariot festival is thought to have started during the reign of King Pratap Malla of Kantipur in the 17th century CE. For close to four centuries, the construction of the chariot and its operation has proven to be a phenomenal engineering feat, and the people’s faith in divinity means the tradition is alive.&nbsp; The essence of the colourful rituals and the religious beliefs of this ancient chariot festival is now all but lost. The logic, technology and practicality must be brought back to light, as they reflect the high civilisation and wisdom of our ancestors that we can leverage in modern times and into the future. &nbsp; Alok Tuladhar is a culture and heritage documentarian.

Kathmandu’s gravity-defying chariot festival

In the run-up to the third Nepal Investment Summit this weekend, there have been seminars, conferences and workshops where the discourse has revolved around the economy and the investment climate.
The consensus that Nepal needs foreign direct investments (FDI) to grow was repeated, and the familiar litany of reasons about why it has not been able to was discussed.&nbsp;
Policy advocates and regulators have understood that the lack of urgency is compounded by procedural inconsistencies, on top of the already deficient investment environment in the country.
It is a welcome change from what used to be flippantly accepting matters as given. There now seems to be a sense of urgency, with procedural inconsistencies and lack of harmonisation between various Acts and regulations openly discussed.&nbsp;
Government stakeholders also appear more willing to learn and attempt to be part of the solution. Whatever policy changes have been introduced in the past have been piecemeal and address the few rather than the entire industry. This left dual regulatory approaches aimed at similar players.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/killing-investment-in-nepal-in-10-easy-steps">Killing investment in Nepal in 10 easy steps</a>, Dibesh Karmacharya
This time, unlike in the past two Summits, the government seems to be committed to amending 9 Acts, a positive step towards showing commitment to change. However, the deadline to do so during the winter session of Parliament is over. The option mooted has been to have it passed through ordinance, a lesser appealing step; albeit, a positive one moving forward.&nbsp;
To attract FDI in a competitive global market means that Nepal has to demonstrate that it is serious about bringing in investments with a more consultative and collaborative approach with investors. A departure from procedural to a result-oriented focus is needed.&nbsp;
To put issues in perspective, Nepal needs US$20 billion in investments to meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets by 2030. If net-zero decarbonisation targets are to be met by 2045, another US$7 billion will be required annually.&nbsp;
Looking at our investment history and poor government capital expenditure, the gap is long and wide. In fiscal year 2022-23 Nepal booked a lamentable ~$59 million in FDI (equity). Nepal is in fact the lowest market in South Asia for FDI with 0.3% of the regional average.&nbsp;
What is it that we can do to fill the gap?&nbsp;
First, we need to move away from the notion that Nepal only needs large investments. This has proven to be a mistake, and time series data have proven that smaller investments, in aggregate, make a larger impact on economies.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal">Poor cash-rich Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale
We talk about an ‘enabling environment’ but without the right tools. We place restrictions on interest on debt ceiling (SOFR +5.5), without risk premium adjustments, we do not have an active secondary market for bond trading, nor do we have a yield curve, an integral part of the bond market, which is inhibiting us from tapping into the trillion dollar green bond market.&nbsp;
In order to attract green financing, Nepal needs to develop its bond market. Sovereign risk rating has been mooted and was expected to be operationalised before the Investment Summit.&nbsp;
However, to be rated in an adverse economic environment could further deteriorate investment potential due to a lesser-than-expected rating.&nbsp;
Hedging is another instrument that needs further research on. A commercial bank last year showcased the first risk-hedging mechanism for an investment of $8 million. This can be the beginning to expand on its modality. &nbsp;
Subordinated debt instruments have been introduced, but on a special nod basis, this now needs to be institutionalised as it is the most applicable form of investment after equity in a market that has volatile forex reserves.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment">Invest in investment</a>, Nepali Times
Viability Gap Funding has been introduced by multilateral development agencies implemented in solar installations. It is a tool to incentivise the private sector to invest in projects that are not financially lucrative initially, but have potential for profitability in the long run. This needs to be scaled up and replicated in sectors like infrastructure, where returns may not be immediate.
Moving forward, to attract FDI, Nepal needs to tap into the funds that are available for the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and climate change. Alternative investments such as Private Equity Venture Capital (PEVC) have been around in a structured manner in Nepal for nearly a decade now.
These funds have blended finance components and have attracted climate funding as well. PEVC is a new asset class and can address the issues of penetrating into SME financing by incorporating environment, social and governance issues into their investment process.&nbsp;
SMEs are the backbone of any economy, PEVC comes with the ability not only to scale up the enterprise with risk capital, but with the ability to bring technical knowhow to enhance not only the enterprise but also the entrepreneur.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/success-in-nepal-means-not-having-to-work">Success in Nepal means not having to work</a>, Anil Chitrakar
A differentiator from all other forms of financing available till date in Nepal. Blended finance is a way of de-risking investments, especially in frontier markets. Business Oxygen (BO2) is an example of blended finance with subordinated debt investments of IFC (World Bank Group) taking the lead and Climate Investment Funds along with FCDO as co-investors.&nbsp;
On a larger scale, the 216MW Upper Trisuli 1 is another example of blended finance with IFC, a Korean consortium and local investments. So far, we see that development finance Institutions have been taking the lead in Nepal as their risk appetite is greater than commercial investors and they are eager to help develop the financial markets.&nbsp;
In order to be sustainable, we need to step on this and attract commercial capital from all over the world. To do this there has to be political will to make that pivot.&nbsp;
Instead of being a means to an end, the two previous Investment Summits turned out to be intermittent and cosmetic, providing hardly any results. The third one’s success will depend on how the event will be implemented as a platform for continuous marketing for the country and facilitation for investors in future.&nbsp;
Nepal has outdone many countries in its macro-economic indicators, with sound forex reserves and a stellar history of debt payments to its creditors. This story needs to be propagated along with the drive for change to attract potential investors.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/alternative-investments-to-attract-fdi">Alternative investments to attract FDI</a>, Siddhant Raj Pandey

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