If history is a model, Nepal should expect a second or third wave of COVID-19 in future, and some models predict that a tight lockdown could make those outbreaks larger.
The model developed by to Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London for the United States (see graph), shows that strict suppression or lockdown (green line) leads to a larger outbreak than do less strict measures, represented by the orange line.
There’s no doubt Nepal’s lockdown has been more effective than those of other countries. Google community mobility reports show how visits to grocery stores, pharmacies and workplaces dropped after the COVID-19 crisis started to hit countries across the globe.
Unlock the country in phases, Editorial
The data for Nepal shows that mobility in key areas fell significantly. For example, visits to grocery/pharmacy dropped by 60% while visits to transit stations and workplaces declined by 65% and 61% respectively as of 2 May. This is very similar to India,where these activities contracted 43%, 64% and 61% respectively (See charts).
India’s lockdown has been declared one of the strictest in the world by Oxford University researchers who developed a ‘stringency index’ based on social mobility in more than 140 countries.
Nepal is still missing in Oxford’s cross-country data, but by analysing Google’s mobility map and Oxford’s ‘stringency index’ we can infer that lockdown regime in Nepal is also one of the strictest in the world.
This is proof that Nepalis have sacrificed a lot to keep virus spread under control – no small achievement for a developing country. In many industrialised countries, people have been on the streets, disobeying and even protesting against stay at home orders.
The lockdown is likely the most important reason why Nepal has seen so few cases of COVID-19 so far. It is possible infections may be going undetected due to limited testing. However, if that was true infections would have shown up in other ways, like an increase in hospital visits or mortality rates as seen in Indonesia and Brazil where lockdowns were loose.
Nepal seems to have averted the first wave of COVID-19. However, without other mitigation measures being ramped up the gains made so far are likely to be undone. As Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas at the University of California Berkeley notes, “to be contained anywhere, the virus needs to be contained everywhere”.
Nepal’s exit strategy, Nepali Times
The paradox for Nepal is that while the lockdown can be counted among the world’s strictest, fewer people are likely to have built up ‘herd immunity’. So we are likely going to see an upsurge in cases when the mobility restrictions are removed as has started to happen this week.
Unfortunately, the government’s lack of a coherent strategy and inadequate mitigation measures may only delay the virus peak. Lockdowns are meant to be a way to buy time to prepare for future surges.
Hence, increasing testing and contract tracing, building quarantine centres, preparing and protecting health workers, streamlining social payments systems and outreach on hygiene and health are important. But the Nepal government machinery does not seem more prepared than when the lockdown was imposed on 24 March.
Worse, we are likely to be in a much more difficult situation if the virus spreads quickly later. With joblessness, stranded migrant workers waiting to return, the socio-economic impact will be even more difficult.
Preparing for Nepal’s returnees, Upasana Khadka
In terms of crisis preparation, there are no figures on how many PPEs (personal protection equipment) are available, and how long they are likely to last. The government has nearly run out of PCR tests and RNA extraction kits.
In many other countries, the leadership works day and night to turn lockdowns to their advantage. Vietnam, which a month ago was importing testing kits from South Korea, has started developing its own PCR tests and exporting them.
Nepal’s government machinery is what it is and we cannot expect it to function like in Australia or elsewhere. But Nepalis who have obediently stayed home for 50 days deserve stronger leadership, transparency and proactiveness.
Protecting Nepal’s elderly from COVID-19, Alisha Sijapati
Nepal’s leaders, who reaped a legitimacy windfall during the 2017 elections for handling the Indian Blockade are now in the united ruling party. They have squandered most of that legitimacy during the current crisis.
As of the first week of May, Nepal had carried out 14,000 PCR tests while Vietnam had done more than 200,000. Nepal’s PCR testing per capita remains among the lowest in the world at 466 per million. Vietnam has done 2,600 per million.
In this time of crisis, the lack of leadership, political instability and inadequate coordination are going to be deadlier than the virus. The Nepali people need to brace themselves. The worst may be yet to come.
Read also:
Nepal must hope for the best, prepare for the worst, Buddha Basnyat and Sudeep Adhikari
Nepal’s future normal, Anil Chitrakar
Sudyumna Dahal is doing a PhD at the Australian National University, and is a researcher affiliated with the Center for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA).
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