On an extended visit to India recently, it was clear to me that the country has changed. There is an infrastructure building spree and the economy is vibrant. But underneath it all, there is an ominous undercurrent of intolerance, persecution of minorities and silencing of the media.
During the Ram Nawami processions on 30 March there were communal clashes in Bihar and elsewhere. Those taking part wielded knives and raised slogans inciting violence against other communities. Black-or-white media coverage of the events magnified the slant and hate speech.
Combining politics with religion is a volatile mix, and this has polarised the two communities in India as extremism by one side is met with retaliatory action by the other. There is a long history of Hindu-Muslim clashes in India, and some of it dates back to the divide-and-rule policy of colonial Britain. The bad blood of partition has not yet coagulated, and the riots following the Babri Masjid demolition and the Gujarat pogroms are still fresh in the collective memory.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/secularism-and-sectarianism/">Secularism and sectarianism</a>, Indra Adhikari
Despite our open border with India, these communal conflagrations did not affect Nepal much in the past. After all, Muslims have been living largely peacefully in Hindu-dominant Nepal even before it existed as a nation state.
But things are changing. Just like all the other things Nepal imports from India, some elements coming in from across the border are also importing bigotry and politically-instigated fanaticism.
This year’s Ram Nawami and Hanuman Jayanti processions in Madhes Province were laced with religious tension. They were much bigger than earlier years with more saffron flags, knives and swords on display. In Janakpur and Birganj, this exhibitionism of supremacy and an angry reaction from the other community could have easily turned violent.&nbsp;
Across the Tarai, car stickers, posters and flags now show the fearsome aspects of Ram and Hanuman instead of their benevolent avatar. Hanuman used to be shown lifting a chunk of the Himalaya to bring healing herbs to Ram wounded in battle with Ravana, or kneeling in supplication before his lord. But we are now seeing a fiercer Hanuman visage being imported from propagators of majoritarianism in India. There is a deliberate message in these depictions.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tolerating-nepal-s-religious-tolerance">Tolerating Nepal’s religious tolerance</a>, Shekhar Khare
It is true what they say: gods reflect the personality of the humans who create them. It is when people use religious figures to propagate their political agenda that we push society to the edge.
There is now debate in India about this politico-religious fanaticism. We in Nepal have to be aware of what is happening in India so that the virus of intolerance does not spread across the border.&nbsp;
During the Covid pandemic two years ago there was an organised effort in India to blame Muslims for being superspreaders. Seeds of this were planted in the Nepal Tarai as well but, luckily, did not take root.&nbsp;
There is a danger of escalation on both sides of the India-Nepal border as hatred breeds more hate and various groups compete for a show of force on the streets. It takes only a spark to ignite this tinder-dry community at large.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/opium-of-the-masters">Opium of the masters</a>
Religious belief is a personal matter. Nepal’s Constitution gives every citizen the right to believe in whatever they want to. But when one group interferes with another’s right to worship as it sees fit, or when weapons are displayed threateningly and the visuals spread through social media -- that crossing the line.&nbsp;
With freedom comes responsibility. Unless the authorities in Madhes Province curb such threatening activity, Nepal will face tensions similar to the ones in Indian states during religious commemorations. Sacred observances will turn into festivals of fear and hate.
Nepal may have an open border with India, but the collective psychology of Nepalis is different than what prevails on the other side. Our traditional tolerance is now being disturbed by hate speech on social media platforms in India. This is creating a rift in Tarai society that could lead to violence.
The Nepali media has to be careful not to be a weapon of intolerance and fan the flames. There was a precedent for this in the 2007 Kapilvastu riots when FM radio stations were implicated.&nbsp;
Nepal’s municipalities need a strict code of conduct for religious processions. Hindu-Muslim religious harmony exists across a broad societal spectrum in Nepal. There are instances of joint religious observances. The Janaki Temple honouring Sita was built by Muslim artisans, and Muslims in many parts of the Tarai greet their neighbours in the morning with a friendly “Ram-ram”. Let no one disturb and distort this co-existence for narrow political ends.
Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/saffron-surge-politics,3619"> Saffron surge</a>, Om Astha Rai

Chandra Kishore

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Religiously following politics

Ever since the Panchayat, Nepal has a history of ‘alternative’ candidates being elected to office as a protest vote against non-performing incumbents. But once in decision-making positions, most have proved less than capable. The superstructure of Nepali politics rests on weak foundations, and there is little one candidate can do, no matter how visionary.
The victory of Swarnim Wagle and Rabi Lamichhane in by-elections in Tanahu and Chitwan this week has been greeted with high expectations, but because of our past history, it is tempered with cautious optimism. Even so, the by-elections were a litmus test in which voters made their discontent with the established parties loud and clear.&nbsp;
The results have reaffirmed that Nepalis are finally abandoning inter-generational party allegiances. The reason for that shift is in the behaviour of the main parties in which the Nepali Congress (NC) was asking people to vote for Maoist candidates, or vice versa. Nepalis are now starting to vote for individuals and not parties, especially old men in old parties.
Wagle and Lamichhane are both from privileged caste groups, so their win does not signify more inclusion. But it is an important shift in the public mood which the main parties will ignore at their own peril.
The trend actually started much earlier when non-politicians and relatively unknown candidates were elected in major urban centres in May local elections last year.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/the-reign-god">The Reign God</a>, Santa Gaha Magar
Then, during the November federal election, the independent RSP came out of nowhere with more young political aspirants of varying professions to become the fourth largest party in Parliament.&nbsp;
And it has now added one more parliamentarian to its numbers: Harvard-educated economist Wagle, who defected from the NC to join the RSP in March. Wagle won by a large margin in Tanahu-1, a traditional NC stronghold.
In Chitwan-1, Lamichhane defeated his NC rival by a landslide for the second time despite simmering scandals, proving just how disenchanted Nepali voters were with traditional parties.&nbsp;
The big parties were punished for not seeing the writing on the wall and continuing to play politics as usual. Coalition candidates could only hold one of the three seats after JSP chair Upendra Yadav’s win in Bara-2.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/in-with-the-new-out-with-the-old">In with the new, out with the old</a>, Shristi Karki
NC chair Sher Bahadur Deuba admitted that voters had “stopped showing an interest in old parties”. UML and CPN- Unified Socialist leaders echoed that view.&nbsp;
Only Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists refused to take the by-election for what it was, blaming the messenger and saying there was a “danger of anarchy and emotion holding sway because of the unregulated spread of social media”. It was no surprise that he shifted the blame to everyone else but himself.
The RSP has maintained its support for the Dahal government but both Lamichhane and Wagle will demand their pound of flesh to fill five remaining Cabinet positions. Lamichhane wants back the Home Ministry which is now occupied by the Maoists who are unwilling to part with a powerful office they bargained hard to get.
Lamichhane is playing coy, saying the RSP did not plan to join the government, and may even withdraw support for the 10-party coalition. This could be a ploy to get the plum post back. The former tv anchor could also be angling for an alliance with K P Oli of the opposition UML.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents">Rise of the independents</a>
The RSP is less than a year old, and would do well not to rush into government again, focusing instead on being a strong opposition voice in Parliament which we are sorely lacking. Lamichhane can then use that time to build his nationwide party structure.&nbsp;
The challenge for the mainstream parties until the next federal election will be to stop the slide and not alienate Nepal’s young voter base any more. The older leaders should also make way for younger ones within their own rank and file. Otherwise there may be more defections like Wagle’s from the NC.
The NC, UML and the Maoists need to reinvent themselves. Voters are sick of them. They want them to stop dithering and shuffling the deck. They have given the coalition one last chance to perform in the next five years. Nepal cannot be a proper democracy if political parties themselves continue to be autocratic, exclusionary and corrupt. There are populist reactionaries and extremists waiting on the wings.
Nepal’s ageing career politicians, it is time for you to bow out gracefully. You have failed. Give someone newer a chance.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-gen-next-election">Nepal’s Gen Next Election</a>
&nbsp;Shristi Karki

Old wine in old bottles

When the chariot of Machindranath, the rain god, got stuck at Na Tole in Patan this week, it became symbolic of Nepal’s shambolic politics.
But there was hope from Tanahu and Chitwan, where citizens disenchanted with the corrupt gerontocracy voted for change. RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane was re-elected by an even bigger margin than November despite scandals. Swarnim Wagle, who defected from the Nepali Congress (NC) to contest as RSP in Tanahu won in the Congress stronghold.
In Bara-2, JSP Chair Upendra Yadav was the only coalition candidate to win, after having lost from Saptari last November.
While the RSP and the JSP were able to retain seats they won in federal polls, the NC lost one seat to the RSP, which is the fourth-largest party in Parliament.
And while a single House seat may not matter in the grand scheme of politics, the by-elections were a barometer of the public mood, and could alter the dynamics in the coalition led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/in-with-the-new-out-with-the-old">In with the new, out with the old</a>, Shristi Karki
“Two out of three coalition candidates lost seats despite the prime minister himself campaigning on their behalf. This sends a clear message that this coalition does not have the mandate to rule,” states political analyst and former Nepali ambassador to India, Nilamber Acharya. “These results will likely affect the arithmetics of the House and government.”
Lamichhane has said it was “no longer reasonable” for the RSP to support the government, which means it could quit the 10-party coalition. “It is now pointless for us to remain in the alliance and the consensus within the party is that we should stay in the opposition,” RSP spokesperson Mukul Dhakal told Nepali Times.
We will know soon enough if the RSP really means it or if this is just a bargaining ploy by Lamichhane who was angling to be Home Minister again to clear his citizenship case. 
One RSP leader admitted to us that the party would only participate in the government if given “respectable portfolios” like the Home Ministry and the Deputy Prime Minister once again. Spoken truly like one of the big parties that the RSP has vowed to be different from.
Lamichhane is said also to be having backroom meetings with K P Oli of the UML, and political analyst Indra Adhikari thinks it is possible for the two to form a partnership in the opposition. 
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/whose-country-is-it-anyway">Whose country is it anyway?</a>, Editorial
She added: “Still, Rabi Lamichhane may ultimately decide to stay in government or hover nearby because of controversies, including the legal case about his dual passport.”
If the RSP withdraws support for the coalition, Prime Minister Dahal would need a simple majority of 138 to remain in charge of the government, failing which he will have to take another floor test.
On 20 March, Dahal received 172 votes of confidence. Since then, CK Raut’s Janamat which has 6 MPs has exited his government after disagreement over Cabinet slots. A RSP withdrawal would subtract another 21, leaving Dahal with 145. 
Given the volatile dynamics between Dahal and coalition partners like the JSP, the Nagarik Unmukti and the LSP, the prime minister could have the rug pulled from under him. He will therefore have to dangle Cabinet positions to keep his coalition intact. 
The Maoists may have thought they were kingmakers, but now it is the RSP that has the role.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/national-miasma">National miasma</a>, Shristi Karki

The Reign God

The first indication that Nepal’s voters were turning against mainstream parties was in local elections in May last year. In Kathmandu, Dharan and Dhangadi hitherto unknown candidates defeated established parties. But the big parties treated it as a blip, and carried on with business as usual, and in November’s federal and provincial elections, the independent RSP came out of nowhere to be the fourth largest party in Parliament. &nbsp; Still, the Nepali Congress (NC), UML and the Maoists refused to see the writing on the wall and kept playing politics without principles, making backroom power deals and not responding to the economic crisis and the people’s needs. So, in this week’s by-elections in three districts, voters threw them out. Harvard-educated economist Swarnim Wagle, who defected from the NC to join the RSP, won hands-down against his UML and NC rivals in Tanahu. And in Chitwan, the RSP’s leader Rabi Lamichhane defeated his NC rival by a landslide.&nbsp; Still, there does not seem to be indications of any alarm bells going off in the mainstream parties. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists said on Monday that there was a “danger of anarchy and emotion holding sway because of unregulated spread of social media”. He seemed to blame everyone but himself for the Maoist party being nowhere in the picture in this by-election in which it lent support to the NC. The NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba seemed slightly more circumspect, and got over his candidates’ surprise defeats by admitting that voters had “stopped showing an interest in old parties”. The question now is what he is going to do about it. The Wagle and Lamichhane wins have now given the RSP an additional seat in the House of Representatives, to take the total to 21. Wagle received 34,919 votes, much over NC candidate Govinda Bhattarai, who got 20,122 votes.&nbsp; Wagle seems to have carried over a chunk of the NC voter base to the RSP because of that party’s disenchantment with the party leadership of Sher Bahadur Deuba and his wife Arzoo for allying with the Maoists. Indeed, Ram Chandra Poudel— who vacated his parliamentary position after he was appointed the President— had received 25,361 votes in November, meaning that the NC received 5,000 fewer votes this time. Interestingly, UML voters seem to have flocked towards Wagle after he shifted to the RSP. The party’s candidate came in second place with 19,981 votes in November, but UML candidate Khanal received over 11,000 less votes. Over in Chitwan, Lamichhane got 54,170 votes, much higher than the NC’s Jit Narayan Shrestha who received 11,214. The fact that Lamichhane got nearly 5,000 more votes than in November shows that despite his citizenship scandals, he is even more popular because of public disenchantment with the NC-Maoist coalition.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230425120432_d22a196a216370f0d8361ec839924f4ac47cc2d6a46a2a84c950eeecff810424.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20230425120432_d22a196a216370f0d8361ec839924f4ac47cc2d6a46a2a84c950eeecff810424" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2400" loading="lazy" alt="Rabi Lamichhane NT"> <figcaption>Rastriya Swatantra Party chair Rabi Lamichhane receives his certification from the Chief Election Officer on Tuesday after winning the by-election from Chitwan-2. Photo: SADAN ADHIKARI/RSS</figcaption> </figure>  The turnout in all three districts has been almost as high as in November, which is contrary to the usual trend of by-elections having lower turnout. And it also shows that Nepali voters are finally thinking out of the box and abandoning inter-generational party allegiances. Wagle’s victory, for instance, showed that voters gave a thumbs down to the NC now allowing a technocrat like Wagle a ticket, and believing that the economist could find a way for the country to extricate itself from the current economic crisis. The personal attacks by NC leaders, including Gagan Thapa who used to be a friend and colleague of Swarnim Wagle, appears to have backfired on the party in Tanahu. Wagle, for his part, has refrained from direct attacks on any party or politician during this campaign – even though he had been publicly critical of the conjugal leadership of the Deubas in the NC.&nbsp; All the negative publicity regarding Lamichhane’s citizenship and passport, Kantipur exposing alleged corruption when he was briefly Home Minister in January, and a scandal involving an RSP MPs soliciting money from a tycoon do not appear to have affected Lamichhane’s support base. In fact, Lamichhane’s voters appear to have been convinced by his argument that the mainstream parties who are neck-deep in corruption were trying to frame him on a relatively minor mistake involving his passport. In Bara-2, where votes were still being counted till Tuesday afternoon, the JSP’s Upendra Yadav is leading with a margin of over 5,000 having received 18,096 votes so far. His closest challenger is Janamat’s Shiv Chandra Prasad Kushwaha. Like Lamichhane, Yadav is running for office for the second time, but unlike Lamichhane, Yadav lost the election in Saptari’s second constituency in November to Janamat chair CK Raut. Yadav is banking on winning in Bara and is said to have persuaded Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal to hold off on completing his Cabinet nomination in hopes of nabbing the position of Deputy Prime Minister. Even though the Chitwan and Tanahu wins for the RSP represent proof of a dramatic decline in support for mainstream parties, it remains to be seen if the RSP will be a true alternative party or behave just like the other established parties. After all, the RSP is a member of Prime Minister Dahal’s 10-party coalition and both Lamichhane and Wagle will be demanding their pound of flesh. Dahal will be in a dilemma because he knows that the Deubas do not like Wagle, and Lamichhane will want an important portfolio among the five still vacant, since his earlier home ministry is already taken. For the moment it is unclear if the RSP will be back in Prime Minister Dahal’s government.

Shristi Karki

In with the new, out with the old

On Wednesday, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) expelled Dhaka Kumar Shrestha from the party and Parliament three days after audio of an alleged WhatsApp conversation was leaked in which he is asking tycoon Durga Shrestha for Rs20 million to be appointed Health Minister.&nbsp;
In the audio, Shrestha says he has to bribe the RSP’s “core team” so he could be appointed health minister in the previous Pushpa Kamal Dahal and K P Oli-led coalition.&nbsp;
The RSP’s Rabi Lamichhane, busy campaigning in by-election in Chitwan, told media on Wednesday that the party would cooperate with corruption watchdog CIAA, where a complaint has already been filed to open an investigation into Shrestha.&nbsp;
But the fact that Shrestha insinuated that the core team was close to Lamichhane has further tainted the RSP chief, who is facing accusations of illegally having a US and Nepali passport. Shrestha himself threatened to reveal the names of the core team.&nbsp;
Shrestha still maintains the voice in the audio is not his. But the other question is why Prasai leaked the recording now, just before the RSP candidates face critical by-elections in Chitwan, Tanahu and Bara on 23 April.&nbsp;
Lamichhane is on the campaign trail in the three districts for himself and his two other candidates, including the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/buy-election">economist Swarnim Wagle </a>in Tanahu who defected to the RSP from the NC, accusing his former party leadership of “grand larceny”.&nbsp;
Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/last-week-of-the-old-year">Last week of the old</a>, Editorial
The by-elections are crucial for the future of the RSP and especially important for party chair Lamichhane, for whom the polls will be a test of whether voters have stood by him amid all the scandals.&nbsp;
“The cult of personality that has surrounded Rabi Lamichhane has caused people to fail to objectively evaluate his pre-political life, how he acquired funding to run for office, as well as work as a politician,” says political analyst Indra Adhikari.&nbsp;
She adds: “Many politically aware people in November voted for change, and it remains to be seen if people in Chitwan still think he represents change. This is not to say that the RSP does not have promising young leaders.”
Dhaka Shrestha’s tape scandal has invited additional public scrutiny of the party that has promoted a strong anti-corruption stance. Goodwill towards the party also took a hit when Lamichhane became Home Minister in January and Dol Prasad Aryal was made Labour Minister – raising strong questions of conflict of interests.
The timing of the audio leak has led many to question if this is an attempt to sabotage the new party at the cusp of by-elections. Mainstream leaders have joined the chorus denouncing the RSP, prompting many on social media to call this ‘the pot calling the kettle black’.&nbsp;
“The timing of the leak is definitely not a coincidence and politically motivated, considering which party the other individual in the tape has been previously associated with,” adds Adhikari, alluding to Durga Prasai being close to Oli and Dahal. “Otherwise, the tape could have come out during the previous coalition government, but it did not.”
Prasai admitted to leaking the tape, but denied having done so at the behest of any party. He said he “wanted the Nepali people to know who they were voting for”.
All of this has come up at the same time Kathmandu’s mayor Balen Shah decided to challenge the federal government, announcing that KMC would no longer collect garbage from Singha Darbar and that the leaders inside the political centre needed to be dumped in the Sisdole landfill site in order to ‘clean up’ Nepal.
<div class="embed-block"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">आज बाट सिंहदरबारको फोहोर उठ्दैन । साच्चिकै देश सफा गर्नु परे, त्यहाँका नेताहरुलाई सिस्डोलमा डम्प गर्नु पर्ने हुन्छ ।&mdash; Balen Shah (@ShahBalen) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShahBalen/status/1644530625599410176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
‘After nine months of repeated attempts to reach out, it seems like Singha Durbar, which is merely half a kilometre away from the KMC, does not have any intention to work together with the local government for public welfare,’ wrote Mayor Shah on social media.&nbsp;
He lashed out at the chronic lack of cooperation of the federal government towards him, laying out unfinished business and correspondence between the KMC and 14 ministries.&nbsp;
‘If one level of government does not acknowledge or understand the representatives from another tier how can we believe that the central government is for strengthening federalism?’ added Shah. ‘Let the federal government get rid of the bureaucratic red tape so that local governments can do the jobs they were elected to do.’
“Nepal’s centralised political parties, despite having backed federalism in the country, do not seem to want it in practice because they want full control for as long as possible,” explains Indra Adhikari.&nbsp;
She adds: “It shows how immature the leaders are to think that public threats and confrontational tactics, like Mayor Balen’s, will achieve results. Ultimately, this tussle will affect service delivery and the only losers will be the Nepali public.”&nbsp;

Political trash

Economist Swarnim Wagle’s resignation from the Nepali Congress (NC), accusing its conjugal leadership of “bullying” has been the talk of Twitter for the past week. Now, it is disagreement with the non-Deuba faction of the NC that is holding up Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s attempts to complete his Cabinet.&nbsp;
Even after the 31 March appointment of new ministers, Dahal<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/quid-pro-quo-quagmire"> still holds</a> six portfolios: Foreign, Law and Federal Affairs, Health and Population, Youth and Sports, Forest and Environment and Water Supply. The NC faction led by Gagan Thapa and Shekhar Koirala is understood to be demanding at least three of the vacant ministries.&nbsp;
It was PM Dahal is under pressure to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/post-presidential-politics">balance demands</a> from his 10 coalition partners, but it is now Deuba who has to deal with the insistence of dissident factions within his own party. As a result, NC leaders like Gagan Thapa are getting impatient with the Deuba-Dahal leadership of the coalition.
“We are walking when we need to be running to ensure good governance and delivery,” Thapa said on Wednesday. “This will not do.”
Deuba and Dahal do not just have to deal with the NC but also the need to placate the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls">independent RSP</a>, which is fielding three prominent candidates in by-elections on 23 April – Wagle in Tanahu-1, Chair Rabi Lamichhane in Chitwan-2 and former police chief Ramesh Kharel in Bara-2.
Coalitions insiders told Nepali Times the prime minister is in no hurry to fill Cabinet positions just yet and may want to wait till the by-election results are in. That would essentially mean waiting to see how well the RSP does.
Swarnim Wagle created a political tidal wave when it emerged that he was resigning from the NC because of his differences with Sher Bahadur Deuba and his powerful wife, Arzoo Rana Deuba.
In a WhatsApp resignation message sent to NC General Secretaries Gagan Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma as well as dissident leaders Shekhar Koirala and Govinda Pokharel Wagle apparently said: ‘I am stepping down because of constant insults and bullying from the Deuba-Arzoo gang…I would now like to deliver to the public while my age, knowledge, and energy are still relevant, rather than simply wait and watch.’
Soon after, the NC decided to field Govinda Bhattarai against Wagle in Tanahu-1, the constituency vacated by Ram Chandra Paudel after he became president.
Wagle was heavily involved in drafting the NC’s 2022 election manifesto, and had previously also been denied a ticket in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/many-nepalis-say-no-not-again">November’s federal polls</a>.&nbsp;
‘The party’s activities and state over the last few years would cause any self-respecting member of the Nepali Congress to hang their head in shame,’ wrote Wagle <a href="https://www.facebook.com/swarnim.wagle/posts/pfbid0EcAxHaNVPVL8GP4LghAbD6AnV2tMnWp99TtAu4HMb186AqgseoANzpFELrzWs7Hxl">on social media announcing his departure</a>. ‘The historic party of BP Koirala, Ganesh Man Singh, Subarna Shamsher, and Kishunji (Krishna Prasad Bhattarai) has turned into a dysfunctional nepotistic gang.’
The RSP immediately offered Wagle the Tanahu ticket, even while Rabi Lamichhane is still tangled in a legal case involving his citizenship. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court asked Lamichhane to furnish proof that he had renounced his US citizenship even though Attorney General Dinmani Pokhrel earlier decided not to file a case against him.
The Chitwan-2 seat became vacant after Lamichhane had to resign from his MP seat after an earlier <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rabi-lamichhane-is-home-less">Supreme Court ruling on his citizenship</a>, and also had to give up his home ministership. It does not look to be smooth sailing for the RSP chair this time amid persisting questions about his US passport.&nbsp;
By-elections on 23 April will also be held in the Bara-2 constituency vacated by vice-president Ram Sahaya Prasad Yadav, and here the arithmetic is even more complex. Yadav was with the JSP and lost in Saptari to Janamat Party founder CK Raut in November. This time, Raut is fielding Shiva Chandra Kushwaha after getting him to defect from the Maoists. Essentially, the Bara polls will be a &nbsp;contest between Raut and the JSP’s Upendra Yadav.&nbsp;
There are a total of 69 by-election candidates in the three constituencies, 33 of which are from political parties. 36 people have filed to run as independents.&nbsp;
Nepal’s Election Commission published the final list of by-election candidates and their election symbols on Thursday.&nbsp;
Interestingly. there are no by-election candidates from the Maoist Centre, which heads the coalition government. So 23 April will be a kind of referendum on which among the RSP, NC, UML or JSP has more public support. &nbsp;

Ringing in the new

For almost a month now, nameplates bearing the name of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal have hung outside 16 of Nepal’s ministries in the absence of heads of the ministries. Most of the plates say the minister in question is ‘Not In’.
The Cabinet has only seven ministers after the UML, the erstwhile coalition partner of Dahal’s Maoist Centre, quit the government on 27 February. Dahal defected to forge a partnership with Nepali Congress (NC), and on 20 March passed a confidence vote in Parliament for the second time in three months. &nbsp;
Now, Dahal has to go through the same struggle he did in December to reward his 10-party coalition partners, each of which are demanding plum portfolios. Members of Dahal’s 10-party alliance, including the CPN (Unified Socialist), JSP and Janamat await their pound of flesh. Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP also abandoned the UML to give Dahal his vote of confidence, apparently in return for his passport case being dismissed.&nbsp;
The NC with 89 MPs is the biggest party in Parliament and insiders say it wants at least seven ministries including the Ministry of Finance, especially if the Maoists are to keep the Home Ministry for themselves. The NC will participate in government, and one faction wants either Prakash Man Singh or Bimalendra Nidhi to be in the Cabinet.
NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba is also said to be considering Shekhar Koirala, who challenged Deuba’s party leadership. Analysts say Deuba may be looking at blunting the factions in the party who pose a challenge to his leadership. &nbsp;&nbsp;
“I do not think Shekhar Koirala, who stood against Deuba during the NC general convention, would be keen to be a minister in Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s government,” says analyst Puranjan Acharya, “He has the legacy of the Koirala family to uphold, and that will not allow him to work under a prime minister who does not come from the biggest party in the House.”
Congress Vice President Purna Bahadur Khadka is also said to be keen to join the government if he gets to head the Home Ministry, which Dahal has retained since the RSP’s &nbsp;Lamichhane vacated the office following the Supreme Court’s verdict on his Nepali citizenship. Dahal’s preference for the powerful portfolio, however, is his trusted lieutenant Shakti Basnet.&nbsp;
“We can take the peace process forward more effectively if the Home Ministry is headed by our party,” Ganesh Sah of the Maoist party told Nepali Times.
Madhav Kumar Nepal is feeling a bit left out, and wants the Home Ministry for his Unified Socialists, since Maoists, NC, JSP, and RSP have all got offices of prime minister, president, vice president, and deputy speaker respectively. &nbsp;
Nepal is said to be prepared for his party to participate in government under the leadership of Bedu Ram Bhusal, he will have to battle it out with his party colleague Rajendra Pandey.&nbsp;
But it is the RSP that has been most insistent that Lamichhane be returned to the home ministry. Lamichhane himself is readying for the Chitwan-2 by election on 23 April, and hopes to also reclaim his deputy prime minister post.&nbsp;
JSP president Upendra Yadav, on the other hand, is seeking the Ministry of Physical Infrastructure with its ample budget, as well as the Ministry of Federal Affairs for his party – even though spokesperson Manish Suman says the party has not received any formal proposal from the prime minister.
Upendra Yadav will contest the by-election from Bara’s second constituency, which has been left vacant after his colleague Ram Sahaya Prasad Yadav was elected Vice President.
At present, Minister of Water Supply Abdul Khan from CK Raut’s Janamat Party is the only non-Maoist member of the Cabinet. Raut has asked for either the Ministry of Industry or Agriculture along with the deputy prime ministership.
Meanwhile, the Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP) and Rastriya Janamorcha have said that they will not be part of the government for the time being. NUP chair Ranjita Shrestha insists her party will not join until party founder Resham Chaudhary is released from detention.&nbsp;
All in all, PM Dahal is in for a rough ride, trying to keep all his partners happy.&nbsp;

Quid pro quo quagmire

The candidacy of Ram Chandra Paudel for Nepal’s next presidency backed by eight parties including the Nepali Congress and Maoist Centre this week is the latest proof (if any is still needed) of Nepal’s entrenched political patriarchy.
The series of backroom deals in the run-up to presidential elections on 9 March was meant to stop K P Oli of the UML from being all-too-powerful two-and-a-half years down the line when his party would have president, prime minister and speaker.
In this quagmire, we are losing a chance to elect a non-political president respected by all Nepalis. In the spirit of national unity and inclusiveness, it was the turn of a candidate from an indigenous community or a Dalit to be the third president of Nepal.
But what we are getting instead is another partisan figurehead who will continue the legacy of Bidya Devi Bhandari to do the bidding of a ruling party -- exactly why a ceremonial post has now become a dealmaker (or breaker).
Paudel’s presidency is probably a foregone conclusion and underscores the gerontocratic patriarchy in which a handful of superannuated incompetent and tainted men have been reshuffling the cards for more than two decades. They will not tire of mansplaining to us that they are just defending democracy and stability.
This is in direct contrast to the people’s strong show of support in the 2022 elections for young, independent leaders, the likes of Rabi Lamichhane, Toshima Karki, Balen Shah and Harka Sampang.
This is a sorry state of affairs for a country that at one time had women in the three topmost positions: Bidya Devi Bhandari as the President, Sushila Karki as the Chief Justice and Onsari Gharti Magar as Speaker.
Women also made up 33% of parliamentarians and, in the 2017 elections, women were elected to every local unit as either a mayor or a deputy mayor, or both.
While many argue that women were mostly confined to ceremonial posts or rarely got to contest the direct election, in 2022 they did not even get to be token women. Indigenous people, minorities and Dalits were even more sidelined as politicians used electoral alliances (between parties with diametrically opposing ideologies) to cheat them out of Constitutional provisions.
It is not surprising, therefore, that women are still unable to provide citizenship in their name to children while celebrities accused of rape wangle get-out-of-jail cards, and get back to business as usual.
Ironically, it is rural Nepal with its limited access to resources and low literacy rate where women are truly growing as leaders. With men away working overseas, women have taken a lead in every sector from community forestry and agriculture to school and health post management committees.
Community forestry, which doubled Nepal’s canopy cover in 25 years, is an internationally recognised model, while the Female Health Volunteers (FCHVs) program is the backbone of community healthcare in the country. In many ways, the feminisation of rural Nepal is empowering Nepali women to take charge by default.
Among the most dramatic successes of the last decades is the decline in childhood malnutrition and maternal mortality rate in Nepal, both of which are inversely correlated to increased literacy of girls.
But of late, progress has stagnated. In some areas, incidences of child marriage, malnutrition and maternal mortality are creeping up again. So, what are we missing?
<h2>Explaining to some men</h2>
Women empowerment needs men to not just accept equality, but make up for historical marginalisation. Most Nepali women are now aware of their rights and potential, many have proven themselves. But the attitude of men towards gender equity has not changed at the same rate. This can mean young men and boys unlearning the culture they have grown up with.
Homemakers are not jobless people. If all of their work was monetised, they would be the biggest earners in most families. A girl child, if given the same opportunity, can be at par, if not above her male counterpart. Educated career women have a more difficult life balancing home and work.
Only when men are educated do they respect all individuals, their choices and decisions. International Women’s Day on 8 March should not just be about women: it is about educating men, the men in our families, in our communities, and society. &nbsp;
Only then can we envision a world that is just and fair to everyone. And maybe then we won't need to mark an International Women's Day anymore.
Sonia Awale

Political patriarchy

There are many signs of Nepal’s democratic decay, but the one that has made the stench unbearable in recent weeks is the agreement between the three political alpha males to divide up the five-year term of prime minister between themselves.
That <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-chapter-in-nepal-political-saga/">backroom deal </a>was not what Nepalis voted for in 2022. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre (MC) has so far led three coalitions in two months: one with the Nepali Congress (NC) to fight elections, another with the UML to be prime minister himself, and then breaking that off to go back to the NC for the president’s election on 9 March.
Such <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-race-for-shital-nibas/">do-or-die desperation to get an expedient candidate</a> for a ceremonial post has shown just how deep the rot is. This graft-ridden male gerontocracy will do anything to cling to power through the skin of its teeth, the country be damned.
The recklessness does not just undermine Nepal’s hard-won democracy, but also invites instability and a dangerous drift towards extremism. It ignores the fact that only 61% of eligible voters bothered to cast their ballots last year with the message of ‘none-of-the above’. And among those who voted, most young Nepalis went for the independents.
The alternative RSP and non-party mayors served as an effective safety valve to secure the democratic system, and protect &nbsp;traditional parties. It temporarily allayed the deep disillusionment of voters, providing some hope that change was possible. &nbsp;
Those hopes have now been dashed with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls/">the RSP showing itself to be like the rest</a>. Although this may give comfort to Nepal’s serial politicians, it also shortens society’s frustration fuse. Nepal’s overseas workers are already threatening to stop sending money home unless they are allowed to vote, and politicians behave themselves.
&nbsp;None of the main parties, civil society and activists have spoken up against <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rsp-quits-nepal-coalition/">populist media-bashing by RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane</a>. The parties may be relieved that blaming the messenger deflected some of the public anger against them, and kleptocrats could be glad that the media that has exposed their wrongdoings is being targeted for a change.
&nbsp;The superstructure of the Nepali state was already wobbly because its executive, legislative and judicial pillars were weakened. The media's fourth pillar, which had been defending democracy by using its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/press-for-people/">constitutional right for press freedom</a>, has also been enfeebled.
It is easy to blame <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/geopolitical-tectonics/">geopolitics</a>: New Delhi’s domineering role in determining the course of Nepali politics, or the reverberations in Kathmandu of global Sino-US rivalry. But instability and external interference is a chicken-or-egg: do foreign powers interfere in Nepal because the government is weak, or does foreign interference weaken the government?
This being Nepal, things could change after the presidential election on 9 March, and the NC once again ditches the MC to lead the government. We will not be surprised if that happens.
It is hard to say who won and who lost in this see-saw politics. It seemed like KPO had outsmarted SBD, but then PKD suddenly switched sides, and KPO wooed MKN with presidentship. The 7-party coalition has been replaced with an 8-party one. Winners may not stay winners for long.
&nbsp;But in the end, everyone lost. And by far the biggest loss is to Nepal’s democracy. &nbsp;

Premiership in instalments

<figure><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe128b9c7e80680e0da52cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Ram Chandra Poudel, the Nepali Congress nominee for president, files his candidacy alongside NC chair Sher Bahadur Deuba and Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Saturday. Photos: GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s third president is most likely going to be Ram Chandra Paudel of the Nepali Congress (NC), but this will unravel the current six-party ruling coalition.The back-stabbing, power-sharing promises and backroom deals in the run-up to elections on 9 March have also shown that Nepal’s politics is still an opaque gerontocratic patriarchy in which a handful of superannuated men shuffle the cards every now and then.On Saturday, the UML also put forward its own presidential candidate: former speaker Subhas Nembang. But given the arithmetic of the new political alignment, Paudel’s win appears assured.The long saga that led to Paudel’s candidacy was the result of a triangular fight between the NC, the UML and the Maoist parties which have ruled Nepal in unstable coalitions since the end of the insurgency in 2006. <figure><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe128f9c7e80680e0da52djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Being the largest party in Parliament, the NC had been outwitted by the UML (the second largest party) which broke an electoral partnership with the Maoists (the third largest in the House). The fact that the post of a ceremonial president was deemed so politically critical for all three parties shows just how cynical Nepali politics has become — all three need a pliant president in order to use the constitutional powers of the office for their own ends.All the main leaders in the fray: Ram Chandra Paudel and Sher Bahadur Deuba, K P Oli of the UML, Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists, the CPN (Unified Socialist) Madhav Kumar Nepal, Upendra Yadav of the JSP and Mahanta Thakur of the LSP have all been in an out of government for the past 17 years.Paudel, Deuba, Nepal, Oli and Thakur are all above 70 and have been in active politics in Nepal for even longer. One could say that Nepal is in the state it is in because of these senior politicians, yet they refuse to let go.This is in direct contravention of the strongest message of elections in 2022 in which Nepali voters made their preference for a generational change in leadership and a departure from traditional politics felt. Although the new independent RSP has 19 seats in Parliament, the power play at the top is following the old way of doing things.  <img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe12939c7e80680e0da52ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe12979c7e80680e0da52fjpeg.jpg" alt="">The story so far goes like this:2020: The Nepal Communist Party (formed with the unity of the Maoist Centre and UML after the 2017 elections) starts falling apart due to a power struggle between Pushpa Kamal Dahal and K P Oli2021: Oli tries to dissolve Parliament but the Supreme Court blocks his move, and the NCP is bifurcated again into its constituent parties. Soon after, the UML also split.2022: The Maoists and NC form an electoral alliance for local, provincial and federal elections. The NC comes out as the first party, the UML second and the Maoists third. The fourth place is taken by the RSP which was formed only 5 months before editions. December 2022: The UML’s Oli pulls a fast one by proposing Dahal as prime minister in a 7-party coalition that includes the RSP and the royal-right RPP. In return, Oli secures an agreement from Dahal to reserve the presidency for the UML, and for Oli to take over as PM after 2.5 years. The NC is left out in the cold.January 2023: The NC and the Maoists realise that the UML will have the presidency, prime ministership, house speaker and other posts by 2025. The NC, therefore, gives a vote of confidence to Dahal in Parliament, meaning there is no opposition. The NC proposes that Dahal can remain prime minister for five years in return for its candidate to be president.February 2023: Dahal changes his tune and starts stressing that the president should be a “consensus candidate” even as there is a slew of high-level visits by Indian and American officials.18 February: Oli makes a last-ditch attempt to outwit Dahal by proposing Madhav Kumar Nepal as president so the 7-party coalition remains intact, and the NC continues to be sidelined.  24 February: Oli’s ploy does not work as Dahal is convinced by Deuba and NC to allow him to be prime minister for most of his tenure in return for NC’s candidate to be president and the JSP to have the vice-presidency.This being Nepal, anything can still happen till the 9 March election for president, and Oli could still pull a habit out of the hat. But it looks like a foregone conclusion that Ram Chandra Paudel will be the third president of Nepal. <img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe129b9c7e80680e0da530jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe129f9c7e80680e0da531jpeg.jpg" alt="">The eight parties including the NC and Maoists that backed the deal are now on track to replace the 7-party coalition in the government. Some of the parties in the new lineup are already in the current coalition, although the UML, RSP and RPP are likely to stay in the opposition. The UML Central Committee Secretariat meeting on Saturday decided not to leave the 7-party coalition just yet, saying that it was just proposing Nembang as its candidate as power the earlier agreement with the Maoists. "The ruling coalition still exists. The 8-party alliance has not been formed, there is nothing in writing yet. Anything can happen between now and 9 March," says UML spokesperson Prithvi Subba Gurung. The elephants in the room are Nepal’s two big neighbours and the United States. The Chinese have made no secret that they would like the UML and Maoists to stay united, and in fact, its ambassador in Kathmandu lobbied to prevent the NCP from splitting in 2021.  Intensifying Sino-American rivalry means Washington would like to counter that by keeping the NC and the Maoists together - however different the ideologies of the left and right-wing parties may be. Strategically, New Delhi would go along with the American strategy. If no candidate gets a majority in the 9 March voting, a re-election will be held on 10 March. The vice presidential election will be held on 17 March. The Election Commission is readying for the election in the Parliament premises in New Baneswor.  Of 884 voters in the electoral college who will cast their ballots for the president and vice-president, 334 are from the federal House of Representatives and 550 from provincial assemblies. The votes are weighted with members of the federal parliament having 79 points for a total of 26,400, while provincial assemblies get 48 points each for 26,386 votes.  "It is good that a former prime minister is not a candidate, and also the NC and UML have put forward respectable candidates," says former Nepali ambassador to India Nilamber Acharya. "However, the way this process has been conducted it portends more instability because of the bad blood, suspicion, and distrust."

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