<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204ac9c7e80680e0b2875jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="641"/><figcaption>Crowd of people lining up for Covid vaccination outside Teku Hospital on Tuesday. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>During the devastating second wave last year, hundreds of people were dying every day. Hospitals had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/helping-nepalis-breathe-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">run out of ICU beds and oxygen cylinders</a>.This time, hospitals are running out of medical staff.As elsewhere, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-wave-in-2-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the third wave</a> in Nepal is infecting healthcare workers, endangering not only patients with Covid pneumonia, but also those suffering from pre-existing conditions like kidney failure, diabetes, cancers or cardio-vascular diseases.This acute shortage in medical staff across Nepal due to the rapid spread of Omicron has prompted the Ministry of Health to consider shortening the isolation period for doctors, nurses and paramedics to five days. The US and India have already done so.Hundreds of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-health-workers-battle-covid-19-but-also-stigma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">health workers</a> are testing positive daily in hospitals all over the country, turning health facilities themselves into a hotbed of the virus.On Tuesday, there were 10,258 new cases out of 22,828 tested, bringing the positivity rate up to 45%. This is the highest ever daily new cases for Nepal and also the highest positivity rate.International airlines flying out of Kathmandu are reporting a sharp increase in the number of passengers who cannot fly because of the PCR positive test results. So far passengers on domestic flights are not required PCR tests, only vaccine cards from next week.“Omicron is spreading like wildfire through all hospitals, in ours alone we have 35 staff testing positive,” says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-far-sighted-eye-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sanduk Ruit</a> of Tilganga Eye Hospital in Kathmandu.One of the bigger facilities in Kathmandu, HAMS Hospital, has 16 of its clinical staff in isolation after testing positive. On 17 January, 52 staff of the Trauma Centre Hospital tested positive in one day, affecting emergency care of accident victims.Teaching Hospital and Bir Hospital in the Valley also have a similarly high number of doctors and nurses infected and isolating.“Health workers in every ward are infected, Covid has now spread from the emergency to the general ward, the blood bank, physiotherapy, ICU and even the administration,” director of the Trauma Centre Pramod Joshi told Nepali Times.The hospital is now primarily treating patients that need emergency care and surgery. “The hospital is full of patients and the ICU is packed as it always is,” he said.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204ae9c7e80680e0b2876jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1641" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The third wave has now even affected hospitals outside Kathmandu, which are struggling to cope due to a shortage of staff.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/state-of-the-art-rural-hospital/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bayalpata Hospital</a> in remote Achham district has curtailed some critical services like C-sections because of sick staff. Charikot hospital in Dolakha district which had finally stopped reporting new Covid infections only last month is back to caring for an increasing number of coronavirus patients but with fewer staff.“Some of us have mild but manageable symptoms but we are still working, we had a shortage of healthcare workers even before this third wave,” Binod Dangal of Charikot Hospital said. “In fact, we have fewer people than we had during the second wave, we have equipment but no trained staff. We are no better prepared than we were before.”The only respite during the third wave is that the new strain is much milder. Because Omicron’s impact is largely confined to the upper respiratory tract, physicians say their patients do not need as much oxygen or ventilator support as was the case with the Delta variant which primarily affected the lungs.Most doctors in and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/at-the-covid-19-frontlines-in-rural-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">outside Kathmandu</a> say they expect infected staff to be back at work in a week after another test. Even so, given Nepal’s largely unprepared and limited healthcare infrastructure which works on a shift basis, medical staff having to isolate just a few days can seriously disrupt medical care, especially in rural areas where hospitals and doctors were always few and far between.Indeed, this latest crisis reflects on a pre-existing chronic shortage of doctors, nurses and trained medical staff, says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/diary-of-a-covid-frontline-worker-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bikash Gauchan</a> of the Gandaki Province Infectious and Communicable Disease Hospital in Pokhara.“What we are experiencing now is both an acute and chronic shortage of healthcare workers, and this carries a lesson for our government, to strengthen and prepare its medical resources for future pandemics,” he adds.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/boosting-booster-jabs-against-omicron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Booster shots for frontliners</a> including healthcare workers in Nepal  started this week, and the additional dose will provide much needed protection to doctors and nurses who work in close contact with possibly infected patients.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204b29c7e80680e0b2877jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="641"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204b49c7e80680e0b2878jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="641"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204b79c7e80680e0b2879jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="641"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204ba9c7e80680e0b287ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="641">But crowded vaccination centres (pictured above) themselves risk being breeding grounds for infection. This time the queues are not just of the unvaccinated getting their first jabs, but also those waiting for boosters. Even if vaccinated, doctors say masks and physical distancing are mandatory.They warn the public <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">not to be complacent</a> because they are vaccinated and that Omicron is milder. Binod Dangal of Charikot Hospital says: “Most people are treating Omicron as a normal cold but it is very important for us to monitor the progress of the disease in the next few weeks, and prepare for adequate critical care.”At Nepal’s biggest infectious disease centre Teku Hospital, virologist Sher Bahadur Pun cites scientific studies to say that the shortage of healthcare workers will not persist, and the isolation period can be reduced. Nepal has likely passed the most infectious stage of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-with-covid-in-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Omicron spread</a> and it is now time to keep a close watch on people isolating at homes and in hospitals.Pun adds: “We must also investigate which strain is causing Covid deaths in Nepal because if Omicron had indeed replaced Delta, our figures for mortality should not be as consistent as it was before the third wave.”

Sonia Awale

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3rd Covid wave infects Nepal’s frontliners

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/6372030d9c7e80680e0b27e9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1378" height="919"/><figcaption>Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Be it by naïveté, misplaced optimism, or a great faith in the healing powers of Himalayan air and turmeric, no one in Nepal had expected that we would be in the global epicentre of the Covid-19 surge fuelled by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/delta-variants-wake-up-call-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Delta variant in the spring of 2021</a>.Our miscalculation and gross lack of preparation cost thousands of lives and left so many Nepalis bereaved during this Dasain and Tihar. Shortly after <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/we-knew-the-tsunami-was-approaching/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Indian wave began in March</a>, Nepal recorded the highest number of Covid cases per capita, and the worst viral transmission rates on the planet. While the world focused on India, Nepal's health system was overwhelmed in a matter of days.Remember how we <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/helping-nepalis-breathe-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">desperately searched for oxygen cylinders</a>, when every ICU bed was occupied and ventilators were in short supply? Remember rural communities where the situation was even worse, and so many Nepalis died without any medical attention? And there was the black market that forced many to pay exorbitant rates for life-saving oxygen, masks, and even paracetamol.We cannot afford to forget these terrible and deadly months. If we do, and do not prepare for the next wave, we will be bound to repeat them. With <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-on-high-alert-for-omicron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Omicron variant </a>now spreading like wildfire across the globe, let us remind ourselves that Nepal experiences a surge in Covid cases a few months after the rest of the world. The Delta variant (which has been proven to be less transmissible than Omicron) took more lives in just a few months than the 2015 earthquakes.The current low case numbers in Nepal are not going to last. Repeating our mistakes of under-preparedness and apathy has the potential to kill thousands of more Nepalis in the coming months.While preliminary data shows that the Omicron variant is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">less likely to hospitalise infected individuals</a> than Delta did, we need to take into account that this new variant spreads at a much faster rate. The relief we may feel from a smaller percentage of Covid patients needing life-saving care is cancelled out by there being an exponentially higher number of total infections.Our medical facilities will still be overwhelmed, leading to unnecessary loss of life on a large scale. In short, Omicron is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-has-all-the-conditions-for-an-omicron-surge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">not to be underestimated</a>, especially for densely populated communities in Nepal.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203109c7e80680e0b27eajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1221" height="814">We still have some time to prepare. Policy makers and individuals alike have important roles to play in the critical next weeks and months. We cannot squander this opportunity to save lives. National and local governments need time to act now on these critical areas:<ol><li><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/all-vaccines-prevent-severe-covid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Vaccinate Aggressively</a>: There are varying statistics on the percentage of Nepalis vaccinated, but no more than 40% of the population have been fully vaccinated. Booster shots are now necessary to adequately protect a population, so we still have a very long way to go.</li></ol>The good news is that even if we cannot fully vaccinate and provide boosters for the entire population, clinical experience shows that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/vaccines-variants-and-a-third-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccinated individuals</a> have less need for Covid-19 hospitalisations and are much less likely to die from the Omicron variant. Decision makers can make our limited vaccine supply go further by prioritising vaccines for densely populated cities and in areas where Delta infection was low, as people in these areas are less likely to have natural immunity.<ol start="2"><li>Border Control: The devastating wave of the Delta variant in Nepal began a few weeks after it had taken hold in India. This was largely attributed to a spillage of the virus through the open southern border. We can support municipalities along the border to help contain the Omicron by strict health desks to screen individuals crossing the border. This will require increased funding and other resources.</li></ol><ol start="3"><li>Isolation and Quarantine Centres: Delta spread from India and urban areas into the countryside because we could not properly accommodate and care for infected patients in quarantine and isolation centres. There is time to re-establish these facilities before the next wave hits, and train frontline health workers and local governments based on guidelines that already exist. Again, as the variants (and our knowledge about them) evolve, we need to remain agile and empower our managers and healthcare workers to address the changing ground situation.</li></ol><ol start="4"><li>Oxygen Supply: During and after the Delta wave last year, the Ministry of Health and Population made commendable efforts to expand oxygen plant availability in the country, with support from international aid groups. These new plants need to be brought online and tested in the coming months, and MoHP must accelerate its efforts to meet its own requirement of having an oxygen plant at every 100 bed-hospital in the country.</li></ol><ol start="5"><li>Using Female Community Health Volunteers: FCHVs have been a key for many of Nepal’s remarkable gains in public health, including reducing maternal mortality rates. This network of local health workers was not fully deployed during the last Covid wave. We can use FCHVs to disseminate public health information, vaccine knowledge, and to play a frontline role in enforcing community guidelines to reduce local transmission of the virus, and to care for the infected. These volunteers and other community-based health workers need to be adequately compensated, and equipped with materials, protective equipment, and training.</li></ol>Properly mobilising and empowering FCHVs is the fastest and most efficient way to support rural communities that lack other options for advanced care. This will have a ripple effect across the national health system, and may be a key factor in avoiding another total collapse. All of these steps depend on implementation by the government and private healthcare system. We commend recent steps taken by the health department to test Nepalis returning from India, and to establish quarantine centres along the border.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203139c7e80680e0b27ebjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="856" height="571">As individuals, we must <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-with-covid-in-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">continue to take responsibility</a> for protecting our loved ones by following public health guidelines for another few months at least. History shows we will not know for certain that Omicron has arrived in Nepal until after the variant is endemic in the population. These proactive measures can slow the spread, starting now:<ol><li>Mask up in all public places and when in close contact with members of at-risk populations. Doubling up on masks is a good idea, given the extremely contagious nature of Omicron.</li></ol><ol start="2"><li>Avoid touching the face with fingers, and frequently wash hands - at least 20 seconds with soap and water.</li></ol><ol start="3"><li>Avoid all public gatherings. If not, maintain social distance of at least 1m.</li></ol><ol start="4"><li>Support the local government by following protocols and encouraging elected officials to take proactive measures to protect the community. Volunteer to spread awareness or set up facilities if you can, and be ready to support your community when the next wave arrives. We Nepali are great at using ‘source-force’ to get things done - now is a great time to use your connections and networks to encourage people in positions of influence to take proactive steps to prepare for Omicron.</li></ol>In the age of Covid, it’ is every country and every community for itself. Delta taught us in Nepal not to trust promises of international aid to save us from the pandemic. We are on our own, and we only have each other to get through this.The Delta wave, like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the 2015 earthquakes</a>, also taught us that when the going gets tough, Nepalis come together and achieve miracles. Remember the community groups that blossomed across the country to create isolation centres, distribute food and supplies, and invented improvised oxygen concentrators.Remember the FCHVs and community members who risked their lives to travel into every corner of the country to deliver vaccines to the most vulnerable citizens.  This time, we have an opportunity to harness this grit and compassion when it is needed most - before the disaster strikes.Ramu Kharel is an emergency medicine physician at Brown University and has worked extensively in the frontlines of Covid-19. He runs a non-profit organisation HAPSA in Nepal that is working on Covid response.Ben Ayers is an American citizen based in Nepal for over 20 years.

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Omicron is coming to Nepal, be prepared

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161152/636d1e259c7e80680e0af3f5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1524" height="1000"/><figcaption>The 4.1 million doses of Moderna and J&amp;J vaccines sent by Germany via COVAX facility arrived in Kathmandu this week. Photo: UNICEF</figcaption></figure>Till a few months ago, Nepal was struggling with a critical shortage of vaccine doses, and the situation was so dire that the 1.4 million senior citizens were <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/lonely-wait-of-nepals-elderly-for-2nd-doses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">waiting past the due date for their second doses</a>.How the tables have turned. Today, the vaccine stockpile is so large that there is a danger of vials having to be destroyed because of the lack of refrigerated storage — and there are millions more vaccines in the pipeline.“There is no shortage of vaccines anymore, there are millions of doses in stock and we now need to inject them into arms as soon as possible,” says Buddha Basnyat, a physician at the Patan Academy of Medical Sciences.“The best strategy now is to continue inoculating those who haven’t yet been vaccinated while simultaneously also administering boosters, given the decreasing antibody levels and the rise of new variants,” he adds.Health experts are now recommending that the Nepal government also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">start booster shots for high-risk populations</a> such as the immuno-compromised, senior citizens and frontline workers. They urge better planning and clarity from the government about booster shots, and who should get them to prevent influential people from jumping the queue, or misusing the doses.So far Nepal has got 20 million doses of vaccines, and has used an estimated 10 million. In the next three months, the country will be taking delivery of over 34 million doses of AstraZeneca, Coronavax, VeroCell, J&amp;J, Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. This week alone, Germany sent 4.1 million doses of Moderna and J&amp;J vaccines via the COVAX initiative. It also supported the procurement of ultra-low temperature freezers.But it is not only the lack of storage facility and nearing expiry date that validates the logic behind booster shots. Studies have shown that the antibody levels afforded by vaccines and natural infections wane significantly over time. The memory cells also provide immunity against the infection, but there is uncertainty about how long that lasts.“From the perspective of science, a booster dose is necessary especially with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-on-high-alert-for-omicron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Omicron in the picture</a>, boosters have been shown to significantly reduce hospitalisations” explains Lhamu Yangchen Sherpa, an epidemiologist with IPAS Nepal.She adds, “However, we in Nepal have a moral dilemma because a majority of our population haven’t yet received even a single dose. We need to balance this and come up with protective mechanisms that will save the most lives.”Indeed, despite adequate vaccines in the stock and millions more in the pipeline, only 30% of Nepal’s target population have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19. Some 36% have been partially inoculated.Some of Kathmandu’s hospitals are starting to observe an increase in hospitalisations, severity and deaths among people who had been fully vaccinated six months ago. This makes the case for boosters, starting with those with co-morbidity, or those above 60.“This can be an early warning for what is in store for us, the best way to prevent future surge is proper management and distribution of the vaccines we have,” says Sher Bahadur Pun, a virologist at Kathmandu’s Teku Hospital.“Nepal’s priority remains <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/do-nepalis-need-covid-booster-shots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccination for all</a>, but this does not mean we leave those who have taken two doses to die. Individuals above 60 and those more vulnerable to Covid-19 must get boosters on time and that is now,” Pun adds.Going by this week’s figures, Nepal is registering on an average of 260 new Covid a day with the positivity rate at 2.3%. While this figure is not as alarming as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the second wave in April-May</a>, the arrival of the Omicron variant is of serious concern.The new variant has been credited for a steep increase in the number of infections across the globe. The UK reported over 76,000 cases a day on Wednesday, and the WHO has warned that Omicron is spreading at an unprecedented rate across the world.“The new variant while comparatively less virulent than the Delta is at least two to three times more transmissible, which means it can still cause a significant number of deaths given the higher number of infections and more morbidity, underwhelming our health infrastructure,” warns Anup Subedee, infectious disease specialist at HAMS hospital.“It may not lead to another big surge like the second wave but we have to be on a high alert,” he adds.Nepal’s poor health infrastructure is not <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-prepare-for-new-covid-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fully prepared for another spike</a> in infections. While doctors and nurses may have experience with the pandemic, and city hospitals are mostly well-equipped, ventilators are gathering dust due to the lack of skilled workers to operate them. New oxygen plants have not been monitored properly, and ICUs do not have enough trained nurses.“Everything Covid wise is now under control, we haven’t had a single case in the last two weeks but we are no better prepared,” says Binod Dangal of Charikot Hospital in Dolakha District. “If there is another wave, we are done for. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/donated-ventilators-gather-dust-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Our equipment is not functional</a> and we don’t have trained staff either.”There is once again a false sense of security, and the public cannot wait to go back to pre-Covid days with marriage parties, political conventions, packed classrooms, and crowded markets. For the foreseeable future, experts say we must continue to mask up and follow safety protocols despite the vaccine rollout, especially with the rise of new variants.Says physician Buddha Basnyat: “The mask is the best vaccine. It is cheap and effective, while we attempt to vaccinate everyone and give boosters.”

From scarce vaccines, to storage shortage in Nepal

<figure><img width="906" height="1943" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06499c7e80680e0a5f54jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: UMA THAPA MAGAR</figcaption></figure>Third grader Sona Lama lives in the uplands of Rasuwa and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-the-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">has not been to school for more than a year</a>. But since Nepal Telecom built a cellphone tower on a nearby peak, there is now 3G connection — enough for her to attend class on her mobile phone.Her teachers have partnered with a school in Kathmandu that offers volunteers to guide students like Sona to use <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/back-to-school-season-goes-remote/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Google Classroom or Zoom</a>, and also offer tuition so they can catch up with school work.“This is no substitution for going to an actual school and meeting friends and teachers face-to-face, of course, but at least the online classes partly make up for the disruption, and has introduced the students to new technology,” says Samata Regmi, a Grade 12 student herself, who is a volunteer mentor for Sona and others like her. Regmi lists many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/online-classes-may-widen-digital-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">challenges</a>: the network often goes off in the middle of class, video uses too much bandwidth, the children are frequently distracted by household chores. “Many of the parents are out of work, so the children have to help at home, and it is difficult to get them to concentrate. They have very short attention spans on screen,” adds Regmi, who despite the challenges, is glad to be helping children in remote areas with remote learning. Sona Lama shares her mobile with three other older siblings, and since the tower brought data internet it is now in high demand for browsing TikTok videos and Facebook as well. She is still luckier than most Nepali children — a recent survey showed that 80% of students have neither been to school since March 2020, nor do they have access to classes online or by radio/tv.There was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/ministry-of-education-gets-an-f/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a class divide</a> among Nepal’s 6 million school students even before Covid-19. But there is now also a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/digital-divide-exposes-class-divide-in-nepal-schools/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">digital divide</a> that has widened the gap between private and government schools. While most urban private schools have been conducting classes quite smoothly, government schools have had less success because their students are from poorer families. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-z9K0iuDdoStill, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lockdown-gives-distance-learning-a-boost-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">distance learning</a> is catching up and where young students are logging on for online classes, the process has made them more tech-savvy and more confident with digital technology.  In Mangal Prasad School in Nepalganj has been encouraging its children to get online so they can catch up with missed school. Says teacher Sandhya Sharma: “Those who are attending digital classrooms are doing well, we are happy with their progress. But I am sorry to say that there are many who have just not been logging on.”The Annapurna School in Bharatpur trained its teachers using online tools like Google Classroom and Zoom, but only half the students are attending online classes. The school did a survey and found out why: of its 700 students, less than 20% had wifi and only 10% could access mobile data.Even after Yasodhara School in Lalitpur offered to pay data fees for mobiles of students to take online classes, only half the children did. The parent body of the school is mainly made up of daily wage earners. After last year’s lockdown, a Unicef survey showed that 95% of families surveyed said their children had stopped going to school. A third of the respondents said their children had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lockdown-gives-distance-learning-a-boost-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">access to distance learning</a>, but only half were using it. ‘The continued loss of access to education in low-income families might have an irreversible negative impact on the country’s economy,’ Unicef said then. However, students did attend schools for about two months between the two Covid waves earlier this year, and the uptake of online glasses has gone up.As <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the second wave crests</a>, the government has eased the lockdown. Public transport, shops, airlines are back in operation and only restaurants, bars, cinemas and schools are still closed. But in Kathmandu Valley many schools are preparing to reopen even as the infection rate continues to remain high, with a quarter of those being tested being positive for Covid-19.  <figure><img width="640" height="746" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d064c9c7e80680e0a5f55jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Public health experts are also warning of a second peak in the second wave because the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-covid-19-lockdown-relaxed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lockdown is being relaxed too quickly</a>. Crowding in buses and markets without adequate precaution, they say, could mean that the Delta variant could spread rapidly again among <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vaccines-too-little-too-late-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the unvaccinated</a>. This week, the total confirmed Covid-19 cases in Nepal crossed 650,000, and the daily active cases started rising again after the lockdown was lifted to total 26,500. The daily fatality total also rose again to 28 after dipping below 20 for the first time in the second wave. There is also a warning out that the new variant is mostly infecting people in the 21-40 age group, which means schools may have to rethink re-opening. However, other experts say a blanket nationwide ban on schools reopening does not make sense, especially in areas where new infections are negligible, and enough precautions are taken.

Nepal’s class divide widens

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92f69c7e80680e06f17cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>This op-ed is being simultaneously published in the Indian Express (India), The Daily Star (Bangladesh), Nepali Times (Nepal) and DAWN (Pakistan).In February 2021, Covid-19 numbers started increasing again in South Asia with official daily case counts rising beyond 400,000 in India, 6,000 in Pakistan and 7,500 in Bangladesh, straining health systems.The massive surge in India soon <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/we-knew-the-tsunami-was-approaching/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">spilled over across the border into Nepal</a>, leading to ‘apocalyptic’ scenes of overwhelmed hospitals.This virus knows no borders. Containing it has necessitated global cooperation among scientists, policy makers and society. Despite a wide variation in how nations have responded to the pandemic, the most successful strategies adhere to science, and attention to local context.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/this-is-war/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">deadly surge in 2021</a> makes a regionally-coordinated, evidence-driven strategy even more critical. The virus continues to challenge us with its mutations and new lines of attack. If we are to move at the speed of the virus, it is necessary to construct multi-stakeholder regional coalitions to devise new solutions and frugal innovations that can be applied across South Asia.Given our shared and mostly similar social, economic and cultural contexts, local successes must find means to be amplified across the region.Is that even possible, given the troubled history South Asian countries share? The mutual mistrust appears to have hit a new low, as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/shared-futures/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">SAARC</a> has not even managed to hold its summit since 2014.But today we write a positive, hopeful story about a new consortium we are involved in, with core team members from India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh jointly developing Covid prevention strategies. The emerging consortium provides an example of how neighbours can work together for mutual benefit, despite political differences.Every country in South Asia has struggled to ensure consistent <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-economics-of-masks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mask-wearing</a> to stem the spread of Covid. Beliefs, priorities, traditions, and aversions to behaviour change are more similar across South Asia than we care to admit. These commonalities mean that interventions that are successful in changing behaviour in one place are likely applicable in other parts of the Subcontinent.We have experienced this with Community-Led Total Sanitation (CLTS) campaigns to solve the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nature-calls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">problem of open defecation</a> -- originally developed by Bangladeshi NGOs in partnership with an Indian consultant --- and now broadly applied across South Asia and beyond.The Grameen Bank microcredit model was an indigenous South Asian innovation that spread rapidly. BRAC’s recent ‘Graduation’ program targeting the ultra-poor in Bangladesh was replicated with success in India and Pakistan. India’s digitised social protection ecosystem with Aadhar IDs and Jan Dhan accounts serves as a model (albeit with cautionary notes) for other countries in the region. E-governance programs in Pakistan, like eVaccs and Citizen Feedback Model have been replicated and provide strong models ready to be deployed regionally and globally.The new pan-South Asian consortium in response to Covid-19 evolved out of an experiment conducted in Bangladesh, that successfully changes social norms around mask-wearing in rural communities. We observed that a combination of No-cost distribution, Offering information, Reinforcing the message in markets, mosques and other public spaces, and Modelling and endorsement by community leaders (NORM) leads to large, sustained increases in mask usage that persisted beyond the period of active intervention.This <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">four-part NORM intervention</a> was originally examined in a cohort of 350,000 individuals across 600 villages. BRAC is implementing the model to reach 81 million people across Bangladesh.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92f99c7e80680e06f17djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1600" height="876">The team is now partnering with several organisations across Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh to start adapting the model to fit each country’s context, and set up partnerships to pilot, implement, tinker, and learn.The Self Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) quickly implemented the model to reach over one million members in Gujarat. An additional 1.5 million masks were shipped from Bangladesh to support SEWA’s outreach to other states. Lahore’s Commissioner worked with our research team to adapt the NORM model to an urban setting, and devised new creative ideas to improve effectiveness.For example, it has prepared to deliver <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/masks-and-vaccines-to-stop-nepals-2nd-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">masks</a> at doorsteps using Pakistan’s postal service, and is targeting beneficiaries on the basis of billing information from utility companies. Philanthropists and private corporations are sponsoring the masks. We are re-importing some of these innovations back to Dhaka, inspiring further scale-ups in Dhaka, Chittagong, Rajshahi and Kathmandu.Effective mask promotion requires visits to thousands of remote villages, and those same visits can be used to prepare for more effective community-based healthcare responses. To that end, a host of physicians, scientists and community based organisations created the Swasth Community Science Alliance, committing to pragmatic, science-based protocols to manage mild and moderate cases of Covid-19 in rural India, where institutional health care access is limited.These guidelines (available at https://science.swasth.app) were translated to training tools for healthcare workers by digital health innovators like Noora Health, making them widely available across the region.NORM implementation teams based in Lahore, Ahmedabad, Peshawar, Hyderabad, Dhaka, Kathmandu, and Delhi are learning from each other’s successes and failures. The process usually starts with the original research team sharing evidence-based insights with implementing agencies, as the implementers adapt the design, co-create localised implementation protocols, and are threaded together in a collaborative environment across countries where each implementing team iterates while learning from others’ prior iterations, and all our sub-teams are connected in an active learning system that allows us to course-correct in real time. This coalition is poised to change mask-wearing norms amongst hundreds of millions of people across all of South Asia.The CSA is working with partners across rural, tribal belts around India. A team of physicians from India and the Indian diaspora work with local implementing partners to support design, implementation and monitoring of home-based programs and Covid-19 centres providing rigorously protocolised treatment for moderate cases, with oxygen, proning and steroids.Combining the NORM and CSA interventions, our Masking-Treatment-Vaccine Preparation (MTV) approach offers a sensible strategy to mitigate the pandemic until universal vaccination is achieved. These are regional solutions that thoughtfully apply scientifically sound interventions to the local context.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-humanitarian-emergency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Covid-19 crisis</a> has increased policymakers’ appetite for evidence-informed policy measures that can be quickly implemented to stem transmission. This drive for quick action has created some unprecedented opportunities for enhanced cross-country collaborations that are normally hampered by politics and mistrust.We hope that the consortium that first formed around <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-nepal-can-survive-2nd-covid-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mask-promotion</a>, and now around science-based treatment approaches, and that developed quickly and organically without regard to national boundaries, can serve as a model for a broader and deeper collaborative ecosystem that endures.We need to come together to solve problems that affect us all. Let the lasting legacy of this pandemic be a new era of partnership in social innovations that can benefit all South Asians.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0hpuXRByic&amp;t=9sMushfiq Mobarak is Professor of Economics, Yale University, and Director of the Yale Research Initiative on Innovation and Scale. Twitter: @mushfiq_econ Maha Rehman is director of policy at the Mahbub-ul-Haq Research Centre at the Lahore University of Management Sciences. Twitter @MahaRehman1Satchit Balsari is assistant professor of emergency medicine, and of global health and population, at Harvard University. Twitter: @satchit_balsari

What can we do till vaccines arrive?

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91cc9c7e80680e06f10fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="428"/>One thing we cannot complain about is that, for once, the world is not ignoring a humanitarian disaster in Nepal. They have even named a variant after us.Worried about the Delta strain spreading in his country, a UK official blamed the ‘Nepal variant’ for spoiling summer holiday plans for many Brits. The tabloid press, but even the BBC, dutifully headlined this, despite a WHO denial about a Nepali strain. But the damage was done. Just google ‘Nepal variant’ now.What the publicity has done is pushed the world to rush oxygen and medical supplies to Nepal. All help is useful in a crisis like this, but much of the aid being flown in contains items that Nepal is already buying in bulk in China.While there was a dire shortage of oxygen cylinders three weeks ago that led to loss of lives, the nature of the emergency has changed. Nepal’s 29 oxygen factories are now working at 100% capacity producing only medical oxygen, and soon there will be a surplus. The problem is not supply, but logistics and equitable distribution.What we really need are vaccines — most urgently for the 1.4 million Nepalis above 65 who got their first dose of Covishield AstraZeneca three months ago, and are now past the default date for their second after India banned its export.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91cf9c7e80680e06f110jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="318"><figcaption>India's total vaccine exports before it was stopped in March.</figcaption></figure>The lockdown should have bought us time for a mass vaccination drive, but once more we squandered two months shutting people in their homes. The restrictions did bring down the daily caseload, but infections are likely to spike again once mobility increases, just like last year.Instead of #NepalVariant trending on Twitter, we need #NepalVaccines to go viral. To be sure, the United States has pledged 80 million surplus doses, but only 7 million of that in the first phase is for the whole of South and Southeast Asia with a population of 1.5 billion. Supply bottlenecks mean the first shipments will not include AstraZeneca.Europe has a stockpile of AstraZeneca and more on order that are not going to be used, either because of slow uptake or because of fears of clots. In France, tens of thousands of doses have gone to waste. Norway and Denmark are not using  AstraZeneca anymore, and some of this may be channeled to Europe’s pledge to donate 100 million doses this year, sell 1.3 billion doses at cost price to low and middle-income countries, and donate another 1.3 billion doses in 2022, mostly through COVAX.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week announced a $50 billion plan to vaccinate 40% of the world population within 2021, and 60% by mid-2022. This is all encouraging news if it happens, but the long and short of it is that for Nepalis, neither the second doses nor vaccines for the larger population are getting here any time soon.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91d19c7e80680e06f111jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="282"><figcaption>Number of patients in ICU and ventilators in Nepal in May.</figcaption></figure>Even Andrew Pollard of Oxford University, an old Nepal hand, and one of the developers of the AstraZeneca vaccine says he feels helpless. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqHFh4Fbf8IcsJ4g-XnTG5qP1SzA">He wrote in a column</a> in this paper recently: ‘I felt so proud when I saw the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE6-2fepjLEOU19PSLjzWqAvKa05A">first doses of the Oxford vaccine being administered in Kathmandu</a>, and the hope that it brought to Nepalis, but I am now saddened to hear that further supply is delayed.’On Tuesday, the 60-65 age group in Kathmandu Valley, and 62-65 outside started being vaccinated with the 1 million extra doses of Sinopharm VeroCell donated by China. However, we need to get jabs to at least 19 million Nepali arms in the next few months to reduce the danger of a pre-Dasain surge, not to mention younger cohorts who are likely to be more vulnerable to a predicted third wave. Negotiations with Sinopharm to procure another 2 million doses are bogged down over a confidentiality clause in the contract.The only ‘Nepali variants’ we should be worried about are the country’s feckless and mutated politicians. Prime Minister Oli has replaced five Health Ministers since 2018, three of them since the pandemic began.Since vaccines are unlikely soon, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFBpfK-x_4CespExs5Gd3dW9_6oMA">public health experts have warned</a> us repeatedly that even after the lockdown is eased, and even if some people are vaccinated, the only way to prevent future surges is through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/keep-wearing-masks-after-the-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/keep-wearing-masks-after-the-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFrVgv5oLBXzAWQyNuTw7uc_DdWQA">proper masks and physical distancing</a>.A recent <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/covid-19-crisis-india-draws-lessons-from-bangladesh-s-mask-study-121051401341_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/covid-19-crisis-india-draws-lessons-from-bangladesh-s-mask-study-121051401341_1.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHgAojjRlhejojvnimKSVT8uOMRbA">Yale study in Bangladesh</a> involving over 300,000 people showed that four simple actions led to a 10-time increase in mask wearing. Their <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EUhdri6CST9uzw_myffNmyUVPt8_UMsM75NOt5Q-54o/edit" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EUhdri6CST9uzw_myffNmyUVPt8_UMsM75NOt5Q-54o/edit&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGV_AM4_ATLpwI_uAwFRandfzstdA">four-fold path</a> includes: 1. Giving away free masks, 2. Spread information about how to wear them properly, 3. Get celebrities to promote mask-wearing, 4. Enforce mask-wearing through persuasion and punishment.Official figures <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH48dysJncU5jxSSYZYwIF57tBcRw">grossly underestimate</a> the spread and fatality from Covid-19 in Nepal. A projection by the <a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/nepal?view=daily-deaths&amp;tab=trend" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://covid19.healthdata.org/nepal?view%3Ddaily-deaths%26tab%3Dtrend&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH24lI1y0n0i0mWO_OHRW4ckwQBxA">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)</a> of the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle shows that on 31 May when the government reported 96 deaths from Covid-19, the actual number was closer to 363.IHME calculations also show that 1,000 fewer Nepalis will die by 1 September if 95% of people wore masks while outdoors. The government is hinting that the lockdown rules will be eased on 14 June. Since vaccines are still a long way off, our only protection is masks and minimising movement.

Nepal goes viral

<figure><img width="960" height="639" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b83c09c7e80680e067754jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Every day, many Nepalis across the country religiously tune in to the Health Ministry’s website, Facebook or Twitter at 4PM. It is the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/this-is-war/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">same grim statistics every day</a>: another day, another record that should not be broken.On Wednesday, Nepal registered 8,659 new cases and 58 fatalities. The number of active cases is now 66,352 – a hundred-fold increase from mid-March. Half of everyone who gets a PCR test is Covid-19 positive.These numbers may seem low compared to neighbouring countries like India, but in proportion to the population, it is one of the highest in the world: 211 per 1 million population. In India the figure is 278, but in both countries the tally is said to be a gross underestimate. The virus is also replicating faster in Nepal than in India, and most other parts of the world.  “Nepal saw 127% increase in infections this week, the pace of the spread of Covid-19 here is much higher than most of the countries in the world,” said Archana Shrestha of Kathmandu University during the Ministry of Health’s daily briefing on 5 May.All seven provinces had more than a 100% rise in infections with Gandaki reporting a whopping 384% increase. Similarly, test positivity was highest in Karnali at 67.9%, much higher than in Bagmati where it was 25.9% on Wednesday.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-covid-tsunami/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The second wave with new and deadly variants</a> breaking across Nepal has devastated the country. Oxygen cylinders are in short supply, doctors are overwhelmed with patients and families are running from hospital hospital to find beds for the sick. The death toll has soared to 3,475.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-electric-crematorium-running-non-stop/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kathmandu’s only electric crematorium</a> at Pashupati in Kathmandu, designated for Covid-19 patients could not handle the increasing number of fatalities even while running round the clock. Officials had to arrange pyres for coronavirus dead on the banks of the Bagmati.Nationwide, 4,764 Covid-19 patients are in hospitals, 600 of them are seriously ill, requiring ICU treatment and 156 more are on ventilator support. Unlike last year, most of them are in the 25-39 age group. The Health Ministry has procured 128,000 vials of remdesivir, and 4,000 more are on the way. However, the antiviral medication that many desperate families try to get for sick relatives, has not been proven to save lives even though it reduces hospital stay of patients.With over half of new cases concentrated in Kathmandu Valley (Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Bhaktapur recorded a combined total of 3,835 cases in the past 24 hours), hospital beds and oxygen cylinders in such short supply in the capital. But the situation in provincial and district hospitals is even more dire. The Tarai districts bordering India have been ravaged by the virus, as Nepalis returning from India brought the disease back. But by now it has moved up to the mountains as well, and is spreading in rural communities with rudimentary medical services. <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-designates-more-hospitals-for-covid-19-treatment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">In Banke district</a>, the positivity rate is as high as 70% and one-third of them require hospital admission, doctors and nurses with Covid-19 are forced to care for patients undergoing treatment for the same disease in Banke district.Physician Prakash Bahadur Thapa at Bheri Hospital told Nepali Times on Tuesday: “In the coming days, it will be the availability of oxygen that will determine how many live and how many die.” With no help coming from Kathmandu, the Covid-19 hotspot of Nepalganj has converted its district training centre into an isolation ward and treatment hub with 50 oxygen-equipped beds. The idea is to take the pressure off the district’s two designated Covid hospitals: Bheri and Nepal Medical College in Kohalpur which are treating patients from all over Karnali and Far-western Province. Nepalganj spent Rs2 million of the city’s own budget to set it up and staff it with doctors and nurses who work in three shifts. Patients are provided free food and ambulance service.In Biratnagar, the head of Kosi Hospital Chumanlal Das and his staff are working day and night. “Test positivity rate is extremely high,” he said during the Ministry of Health’s briefing in Kathmandu on Wednesday.Over 50 districts in Nepal are now under some form of lockdown. With hospitals at full capacity, the government has advised citizens that they have to protect themselves.With the federal government <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/our-health-system-cant-contain-the-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">waving a white flag</a>, local municipalities and wards are setting up their own isolation wards. Nepal Engineering College and the local government in Changu Narayan of Kathmandu Valley has set up a 100-bed isolation centre, neighbourhoods in Patan have added small wards with oxygen for patients who cannot find a hospital. Butwal has established an oxygen bank and independent activists have set up free services for those in need.Collectively, local initiatives are stepping in to fill the gap left by the government. But public health experts say the only way out of the pandemic is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-nepal-can-survive-2nd-covid-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mass vaccination and personal precautions</a>. They say the lockdown period should not be allowed to go waste again, and the government must step up tracing and testing, expedite vaccine procurement and launch a massive public awareness drive.  <figure><img width="1566" height="992" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b83c39c7e80680e067755jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><h2>Subcontinent under seige </h2> It is not just Nepal, the Subcontinent itself is reeling under the new surge that threatens to reverse global gains in health, education and nutrition and has a disproportionate impact on children.Disruption of essential health, immunisation and nutrition services during the first surge in South Asia cost the lives of an estimated 228,000 children and 11,000 mothers, according to UNICEF. “We may be exhausted, but the virus is not yet exhausted,” warns George Laryea-Adjei, UNICEF Regional Director for South Asia. “Now more than ever, we must commit ourselves to wearing masks, handwashing with soap as often as possible, keeping physical distance and getting ourselves vaccinated if we have the opportunity to do so.”Effective contact tracing has also been noted as a much faster and cost-effective way than <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lockdown-2-0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lockdowns and prohibitory orders</a> in reducing transmission and controlling the pandemic.Says Archana Shrestha of Kathmandu University: “We have over 8,000 new infections a day but we have only reached the first of the third phase of the new wave, we have to survive through the rest. But stringent contact tracing can reduce 85% of infections.” <h2>Covid Helpers</h2> To donate to the group setting up isolation centres in Kathmandu <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.facebook.com/anmfUS" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">America Nepal Medical Foundation</a>: http://anmf.org/ For any information regarding Covid symptoms, how to take care at home etc Covid Alliance for Nepal: 9880035000 (8am to 8pm) For Ambulance 24-hour free Covid ambulance service: 9851277342, 985123942, 9851312417 Free ambulance service from KMC: 1180 For oxygen Hamro Team Nepal: 9851102652 9851102653: 9851102654, 9841669170, 9851054280, 9741710493 For bed with oxygen: Youth for Nation: 9861116456 ,9857030887 ,9841309599,9863322793 For Bed: Siyana Karki  9841730903 Dr Utsav Timilsina  9847023345 For Oxygen : Anil Rijal  9847297745 Shisir GC 9857025765 For ICU : Arjun Chand 9851206644 Dr Amrit Bhusal 9841375180 For food: Juju Kaji: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/kajijuju" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.facebook.com/kajijuju&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620307494671000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEnkcqkYhKPMB4dKq_Ev6cf61dUAQ">https://www.facebook.com/kajijuju</a>  Covid-19 hotline service: 113 (8am to 8pm), 1115 (6am to 10pm), 9851255839, 9851255837 The list has been compiled based on the information available on social media. Updated covid directory: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/453859702218765/permalink/573621080242626/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.facebook.com/groups/453859702218765/permalink/573621080242626/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620307494671000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFpWuUlaMcsr86-vkIF9fnOuhchqw">https://www.facebook.com/groups/453859702218765/permalink/573621080242626/</a>

Microcosms of a pandemic

<figure><img width="3500" height="2333" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131116/636cebdd9c7e80680e09ad2fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: KRISHNA MANI BARAL</figcaption></figure>Kaski has become the latest in the list of districts to be placed under strict lockdown following the surge in new variant of SARS-CoV-2 as Nepal battles the devastating second wave of the pandemic. Following the decision in place until 14 May, Nepal’s tourist city of Pokhara bore a look of a ghost town: fishermen have abandoned their boats, Lakeside is void of tourists and locals are keeping away from outdoors.The positivity rate in Gandaki province was close to 50% with 429 new cases in the last 24 hours. With this, total number of active cases has now soared to 2,546, of which 2,354 are in home isolation.

Pokhara locked down

<figure><img width="3500" height="2333" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b83b99c7e80680e067752jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: KRISHNA MANI BARAL</figcaption></figure>Kaski has become the latest in the list of districts to be placed under strict lockdown following the surge in new variant of SARS-CoV-2 as Nepal battles the devastating second wave of the pandemic. Following the decision in place until 14 May, Nepal’s tourist city of Pokhara bore a look of a ghost town: fishermen have abandoned their boats, Lakeside is void of tourists and locals are keeping away from outdoors.The positivity rate in Gandaki province was close to 50% with 429 new cases in the last 24 hours. With this, total number of active cases has now soared to 2,546, of which 2,354 are in home isolation.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111136/636b83649c7e80680e067732jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3563" height="2375"/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Only a month ago, even prominent doctors in India were declaring that the country had defeated the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851520000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH26pr4ATCusVi4rW_jCSccSqOyNw">novel coronavirus. </a>They felt that herd immunity in cities like Delhi would protect people from infection and death. Based on a few dubious studies, they conceded that a large proportion of Indians had acquired herd immunity through mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infections.Just like the theory that a lifetime exposure to germs would protect South Asians, herd immunity also turned out not to be true.Here in Nepal we are seeing a surge that is proportionately similar to India. The exponential rise in the number of cases, infection of younger cohorts, and the severity of the disease, bear all the hallmarks of the contagion sweeping across India.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111136/636b83679c7e80680e067733jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1390" height="584"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>While we try to treat the sick by increasing hospital space and ensuring oxygen supply, we must also plan for an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-covid-19-exit-strategy-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-covid-19-exit-strategy-for-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGreS-S3470fwa9xi8chTwsApsL8Q">exit strategy</a> that entails acquiring more effective herd immunity through mass vaccination, and partial lockdowns enforced with all <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEgv4bMUglLS5mZDf0VcnTA8rrcwA">precautionary measures</a>.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-must-hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-must-hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOLiROFJhRqoWS8Lm4Rrizbt_w7w">Over-preparation rather than under-preparedness </a>needs to be our mantra. Widespread vaccination is the key to get us out of this pandemic, and we have lost precious time with the delays.This means our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH7Un17CIezo7XVehWgZr4IVThqzQ">vaccine diplomacy</a> has to go into top gear. If <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEHISgu64T2PwpgpRFk_IklnxurbA">Covishield from India</a> is not available, we must lobby for as many dosages of vaccines from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-gift-of-the-jab/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-gift-of-the-jab/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFYyDtUVRKNT2a92xdtV6IBpGmKNQ">Chin</a>a, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sputnik-v-vaccine-mystery-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sputnik-v-vaccine-mystery-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGsbwsSUqjInkvevMv3Ycj6ryTa8w">Russia</a>, or the United States, and administer them urgently.All of these vaccines are in general at least 50% effective (the ‘pass mark’ for vaccine efficacy). None of the inoculations appear to have serious adverse effects, even though there are questions about whether they provide enough protection from the new strains, and duration of immunity.We are trying to immunise the population from SARS-CoV-2, which happens to be a wily killer that exploits the human need for social interaction and mobility. Analysing this sudden and rapid spread of the virus in the Subcontinent, it looks like South Asians are more vulnerable because of <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-virus-vortex/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-virus-vortex/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFClAleG43b0LxtmN6SUTtqq0wUeA">our co-morbidities.</a>South Asians are known to be genetically more susceptible to diabetes and cardio-vascular diseases. The diet and lifestyle of people in the 40-70 age group increases the risk factor for obesity, diabetes and hypertension. Not unsurprisingly, the death toll due to Covid-19 is higher in this age cohort among South Asias than in Europe or the Americas.The other reason for the infection suddenly taking off again in our part of the world is that we let our guard down, attending festivals, religious ceremonies and political rallies.And then there is the presence in Nepal of both the UK variant of the virus ( B.1.1.7) and the B.1.617 (Indian variant) both of which are at least 20% more transmissible. The good news (at least so far) is that these variants may not be any more lethal than the standard virus. But even if they are not, we desperately need to stop transmission.And since this is a respiratory virus, the most effective way to do that is still to wear a mask, avoid crowds and use hand sanitiser.In a pandemic of this scale, the general public also needs to know what treatment works and does not. Oxygen, if available, is definitely helpful since it is a drop in oxygen level in the blood that leads to serious complications.A drug called dexamethasone saves lives, it is easily available and cheap. Tocilizumab, unavailable in Nepal, and expensive, can also be used to treat severely ill patients and should only be administered by a physician. There are web <a href="https://www.indiacovidsos.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.indiacovidsos.org/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG9m03344ZEP5kR4-D9sw3xAz7ZjQ">links</a> with pragmatic tips that may come in handy if a hospital bed is not available, as we are now seeing in India and Nepal.There is a lot of fake news about the effectivity of treatment drugs. The following commonly used drugs for well-known illnesses do not work against Covid-19 although, even today, many are rampantly and unnecessarily prescribed in South Asia: Azithromycin, ivermectin, choloroquin, colchicine, convalescent plasma, vitamin D, zinc, lopinavir-ritonavir, favipiravir, and doxycycline.Even remdesivir, the drug that many desperate families try to acquire for their hospitalised relatives, does not save lives even though it is known to reduce hospital stay.Many of these drugs were studied for their efficacy by carrying out large randomised controlled trials by the biggest, adaptive Covid-19 tests undertaken by Oxford University’s <a href="https://www.recoverytrial.net/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.recoverytrial.net/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWVQpxuWW8Bb9WDrI4MR584LIUww">Recovery Trial</a>.The Nepal Health Research Council was the first country set-up outside the UK that recently started collaboration with Recovery Trial as part of a global effort to in order to help find a treatment drug against Covid-19.This tragedy has exposed the inadequacy and inequity in the health care system of Nepal and South Asia. The dominant method of health care delivery in the region, especially for curative services, are private enterprises that follow the corporate health care model patterned after the United States.Nepal has also increasingly gravitated towards this system of health care, with many new private hospitals all over the country. The pandemic will force us to question this model, and ask if alternatives like the UK National Health Service would be more suitable.Despite the vested interests behind the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/kcs-fast-highlights-nepals-covid-19-failure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/kcs-fast-highlights-nepals-covid-19-failure/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGPAmj-NNRDt3JI_--ydl8p8gFc_A">medical-industrial complex</a> in Nepal, we need to plan for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGNZppXCvCMgFPm4GVAEVi5e8MJRg">universal health care (UHC)</a>, and even consider universal basic income (UBI), if we are going to improve health care to the vast majority of Nepali people.Even President Joe Biden is trying to reform US health care with a stimulus package that has clear aspects of UBI. We need to look at a combination of UHC and UBI in Nepal because even if we survive this pandemic, there is certain to be another one sooner or later.The international media has only taken notice of the second wave in Nepal after reports of infections at <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mt-everest-city/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mt-everest-city/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEXmV4I4K_YnFSjorLfpqWrs5_c0g">Mt Everest Base Camp</a> last week. But it is reassuring to know that even up there at 5,364m, Nepali specialists are doing their best to follow protocols to deal with suspected Covid-19 among climbers and support staff.This work is critical because the ubiquitous ‘Khumbu cough’ and even the life-threatening high altitude pulmonary edema (<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/high-alert/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/high-alert/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHi0ktDBncK6SypHGzDbi44cBgObw">HAPE</a>) simulate the symptoms of Covid-19, and it can be difficult to tell them apart.Buddha Basnyat, MD, is a clinical researcher at the Patan Academy of Health Sciences and an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sherpa-genes-for-covid-19-treatment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sherpa-genes-for-covid-19-treatment/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEJKfShTwfhNqAdP0GvlMmh5-IMfQ">expert in high altitude medicine</a>. He is also a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1620014851521000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF_WOWRO49qKaxdIzZ6QpXh6cnQpA">frequent health columnist</a> for Nepali Times.

Buddha Basnyat

How Nepal can survive 2nd Covid wave

Born in Khandbari in eastern Nepal, Parashuram Pathak helped his family around the farm, sold what they grew in the market and lent a hand in the kitchen.&nbsp; After working as a chef in Dubai, San Francisco, Denmark, Australia, and on cruise ships, Pathak has now brought back what he has learnt to the Tusa Restaurant in Bhaktapur that opened on Nepali New Year on 13 April. Tusa uses fresh indigenous ingredients from various parts of Nepal, and fuses them with international methods to produce unique dishes. Pathak is a global Nepali, and is introducing global Nepali cuisine to his homeland. Pathak left an executive chef job to intern at three-Michelin-starred Noma in Denmark, named the best restaurant in the world five times. Noma runs on a philosophy of foraging to rediscover wild local ingredients, and Tusa’s mission is similarly noble: preparing dishes with Nepali ingredients using modern techniques and equipment. “We are taking Nepali food beyond dal-bhat and momo, we are taking it international,” Pathak said on the phone from Sydney. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-baker-rises-to-the-top-in-denmark">Denmark’s best baker is a Nepali</a>, Vishad Onta  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_1312bc016cbb2fe59c6d4a78d1f8b463af4a10b3f79559a2405fd54ea5b3197a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240419180424_1312bc016cbb2fe59c6d4a78d1f8b463af4a10b3f79559a2405fd54ea5b3197a" data-rendition-name="original" width="801" height="802" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Photo: PARASHURAM PATHAK/FACEBOOK</figcaption> </figure>  Pathak’s team in Nepal includes chefs Rupesh Bohara and Sagar Shrestha who have also worked extensively in Dubai and Australia, and share his vision. The three realised they shared the same dream, and over the past five years have travelled across Nepal to research their menu, collecting ingredients and ideas from homestays, food carts, and nature. The team then scouted for Nepal’s best architect, and zeroed in on Bhaktapur-based heritage conservationist Rabindra Puri who designed the Malla-era house for Tusa in the Nag Pokhari neighbourhood. Bohara and Shrestha have moved back to Nepal for good, and Pathak arrives in September. “I made dishes from all over the world, but when someone asked what Nepali food was like, I had no answer,” says Bohara, “I came back to find out.” &nbsp;“You can get citizenship, a green card, big houses and cars, but where is the self-satisfaction?” asks Shrestha, who has a red-and-blue chef’s knife with the sun and moon of the Nepali flag tattooed on his right forearm.&nbsp; Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/the-return-of-a-master-baker"> The return of a master baker</a>, Raju Pakhrin  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_c601264463e5a28d4e71a46781f340a53619a08d00949a7aaebfef84e75a319d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240419180424_c601264463e5a28d4e71a46781f340a53619a08d00949a7aaebfef84e75a319d" data-rendition-name="original" width="6000" height="4000" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Photos: TUSA</figcaption> </figure>  Bohara and Shrestha passionately recount stories of their trips across Nepal, speaking of generous lodge owners who introduced them to local ingredients. Tusa can seat 28, and dining here is a sensory experience with a live kitchen. The chefs cook and place dishes on a large granite countertop with induction sections built in. Behind the counter is a grill on an indoor fire with pulley control to adjust the fire. Everything that can be made in Nepal — chairs and tables, ceramic dishes, the grill — is locally sourced. The executive kitchen/laboratory is downstairs. It is spacious, spotless, and contains appliances rarely seen in restaurants here: a sous vide machine that cooks vacuum-sealed packets at consistent temperatures, and a dehydrator for sisnu nettles. A fresh batch of deep purple kimbu (mulberry) muffins has just come out of the oven. Fridges have dry-aged fish and marigold kombucha. Fermentation seems to be the theme at Tusa, and Pathak explained: “Fermentation takes away the natural sugars in food, leaving behind a true, umami taste.”&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/vikings-khukri-passion">Viking's khukri passion</a>, Alisha Sijapati  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_c59e2b4230864f646bc36108adb951e95ec85da6156740294b1ec715b86acf89.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240419180424_c59e2b4230864f646bc36108adb951e95ec85da6156740294b1ec715b86acf89" data-rendition-name="original" width="5895" height="3930" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> </figure>  Tusa itself means ‘shoot’ in Nepali, and can be a dish of fermented bamboo shoots. The restaurant serves a tasting menu with six courses, plus surprises. It starts with a fermented potato and millet roti with charred green garlic and tomato chutney. The bread tastes like a mix of alu paratha and kodoko roti with a satisfying, mild flavour. The chefs do not show off, and overdo it. Dishes are tastefully simple and faithful, a theme that runs through the meal. The second course is a filet of fish charred on one side and placed in a broth. It is delicate and smokey, and does not mask the character of the fish.&nbsp; The next is Batuk Chukauni, a Magar dish with a lentil snack and a yoghurt-based potato achar. The batuk, made of lentil batter, is light and the chukauni has potatoes and peas. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/money-is-not-everything-but-you-need-money-for-everything">"Money is not everything, but you need money for everything"</a>, Rohit Shrestha  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_e3f51228ff792e8d4297f81f8e67d138584e922ae035d131977494219e5e85c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240419180424_e3f51228ff792e8d4297f81f8e67d138584e922ae035d131977494219e5e85c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Batuk Chukauni. Photo: VISHAD ONTA</figcaption> </figure>  Next is a skewer of jackfruit with a tamarind and mustard glaze that has the texture of a slice of sausage and melts in the mouth. Then comes the first off-menu item: a steak of watermelon, glazed and grilled, tasting sweet, sour and smokey. After that a palate cleanser sorbet made with laligurans syrup adorned with a frozen candied rhododendron petal. Finally the main course: barbeque chicken and chyakla coarse corn grits. The chicken has been brined, marinated, cooked sous-vide and seared on the grill. The delicate consistency of the chicken stands out. Desert is a smooth, creamy cheesecake that uses the local juju-dhau yoghurt. And the last course is a moist, moss-green sisnu cake laced with mulberry jam and cream.&nbsp; There is nothing gimmicky about Tusa. It is the coming together of skilled Nepalis with international exposure who have mixed what they have learnt abroad with the flavours of home.&nbsp; The tasting menu is Rs3,500, and it may take some time before Nepalis develop a predilection for some of its items. The chefs are excited, vindicated, and relieved. Coming back to Nepal, uprooting successful careers abroad to take a chance on Nepal must not have been easy.&nbsp; Tusa had a soft launch on New Year’s day with Kathmandu-based diplomats. Australian Ambassador Felicity Volk was one of them, and wrote on a Facebook post: ‘Chefs who honed their skills in Australia and returned to Nepal to give back. We call it fine dining, they call it #cominghome.’ Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/the-baker-of-barpak">The baker of Barpak</a>, Tara Aryal Pandey

The return of the natives

For a year or two after the 25 April 2015 earthquake, the residents of Kathmandu were too terrified to return to their high-rise apartments. None of them collapsed in the 7.8 disaster, but many sustained serious structural damage. &nbsp;
Fast forward nine years, and they have all but forgotten that frightful day. Kathmandu is back to building substandard structures, even as land prices drive developers to build taller.&nbsp;
With no more space to spread horizontally, Kathmandu is going vertical. But structural engineers say most of the high rises do not take into account seismicity, soil condition, construction methods, quality of raw materials, fire hazard, and search and rescue in collapsed concrete structures.
“Much of our focus since the 2015 earthquake has been on building and construction, but not as much on where we are building,” warns Sangeeta Singh, Professor of Urban Planning and Deputy Director of Centre for Disaster Studies at the Institute of Engineering.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale
She adds: “Kathmandu is not really suited for high-rises. We have to first test the condition of the soil, but building permits are being issued without this fundamental step.”
Kathmandu Valley is a former lakebed with soft topsoil prone to liquefaction and excessive shaking, as seen during the 1934 megaquake. Many ruptures tore up the surface in 2015. &nbsp;
During an earthquake, the rock layers below Kathmandu ring like a bell and the vibrations on the surface take between 0.5 to 2 seconds for one oscillation. Buildings also vibrate, but at different frequencies depending on their height, construction material, and arrangement of their structural components.
At five floors, the vibration period of a building is 0.5 seconds, which is the same as that for Kathmandu Valley, and this could cause more damage, says structural engineer Surya Narayan Shrestha at the National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET).
“Building anything that is five storeys or higher in Kathmandu needs special design and structural considerations,” says Shrestha.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/shaking-things-up">Shaking things up</a>, Editorial
Technologies exist to reduce seismic risk in high-rises, and these are used in earthquake-prone cities like Tokyo, Los Angeles, Jakarta or Mexico City.&nbsp;
Base isolation, for example, separates the vibration of the land and the building, reducing damage from soil-building resonance. Base isolators move and stretch under pressure, absorbing much of an earthquake's impact by reducing swaying and shaking. &nbsp;
Seismic dampers change the pattern of vibration altogether, dissipating energy as vibrations move across a structure. But these are all expensive technologies, and none of the high-rises in Kathmandu use them.
However, Nepali engineers who can help with technology transfer are working in the field in Nepal and overseas. Kathmandu’s high-rises are already very expensive, and making them seismic-resistant would be an incremental cost.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/learning-from-jajarkot-what-we-didnt-after-2015-695vpzle">Learning from Jajarkot what we didn't after 2015</a>, Sushil Gyewali
The shape of high-rises also matters. Reinforced concrete buildings with asymmetric designs of the kind that are seen in newer structures in Kathmandu experience more torsion and shear during quakes. High-rises with regular geometry are stronger. &nbsp;&nbsp;
An even bigger concern is that of emergency evacuation and rescue in case of fire or earthquake. Kathmandu fire services do not have ladders that reach the higher floors of most new structures.
“High-rises mean more people and potentially higher casualties,” explains Shrestha. “We need immediate evacuation routes, fire escapes, emergency ladders, and fire trucks that can reach higher. Right now, safety features are voluntary and not mandatory.”
The street access, shelters, open spaces, and evacuation routes are integral to disaster preparedness and the safety of neighbourhoods and not just buildings. Most new high-rises in Kathmandu have narrow access roads.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later">Rebuilding resilience 7 years later</a>, Anil Pokhrel
Since most of the buildings that survived the 2015 disaster were reinforced concrete structures, it fed the misconception that they are safer. But Himalayan seismologists say that if the intensity and duration of the shaking had been just a little higher, many substandard concrete structures would have collapsed.&nbsp;
And that is the final gap: Nepal’s limited expertise and equipment for search and rescue inside collapsed concrete structures. Kathmandu’s high-rises need to be better prepared for the next Big One.
“Structural safety and design were at the front and the centre after the 2015 earthquake, we also revised some building codes but we are back to square one with contractor-driven construction, especially in peri-urban areas,” says Sangeeta Singh, who is also with the National Planning Commission. “We need to monitor construction as much as design.”&nbsp;
Shrestha at NSET agrees there have been improvements in building practices in the past nine years, but adds, “We have both learnt and unlearnt lessons from 2015. The awareness hasn’t yet translated into action on safety.”
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">Lessons not learned from 2015</a>, Sonia Awale

The rise of high-rises

Midway along the stretch of the ancient trade route between Tibet and India lies the Kel Tol neighbourhood. The name is derived from the original Koligrām, and it is believed the Koli people, who were originally from Rāmagrām in present-day southern Nepal near the Indian border, settled here. The Koli were the maternal ancestors of none other than the Buddha. Kel Tol is famous for the Buddhist monastic complex of Kanak Chaitya Mahāvihar, featuring the majestic two-tiered gilded temple of the white god Karunāmaya.&nbsp; This elaborately decorated courtyard is a bustling centre of the Vajrayāna sect of Buddhism, practised widely by the indigenous Newā people of Kathmandu Valley. Karunāmaya, also known as Ārya Avalokiteshwor, is defined in great detail in the 1st century CE Buddhist text Sadharmapundarikā where he liberates all sentient beings from suffering. He helps rid the eight external fears metaphorically equated with their equivalent internal states of mind: lions (pride), wild elephants (ignorance), fire (anger), snakes (jealousy), floods (attachment), imprisonment (miserliness), thieves (wrong views) and cannibals (doubt).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_fe370cbee75003cd3eb5dccc7c3b2671630da193b0744db2aeac1bab3ff4a85c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240418130432_fe370cbee75003cd3eb5dccc7c3b2671630da193b0744db2aeac1bab3ff4a85c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1338" height="2000" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  In the Pancha Rakshyā Sutra, a Buddhist scripture from 200 CE, Ārya Avalokiteshwor was counted among the eight major deities. Followers of the Brāhminical god Shiva worship Ārya Avalokiteshwor as Seto Machhindranāth. For Shaivites, Machhindranāth is the Indian saint who founded the Nāth cult in the 10th century CE. He is the guru of saint Gorakhnāth. During the reign of Yakshya Malla (1428–1482 CE), a beautiful image of Ārya Avalokiteshwor was dug up by a farmer in present-day Jamal, which was then a cultivated area outside the city. The farmer, known as a Jamami (meaning the one from Jamal) took the image home for safekeeping. That night, Ārya Avalokiteshwor appeared in the farmer’s dream and told him that the proper place for him to reside is at the confluence of two rivers. The nearest confluence was at present-day Wongha (Indrachok) and the image was installed in the Kanak Chaitya Mahāvihar complex in Kel Tol near Wongha. This made it easier for city residents to pay homage to Ārya Avalokiteshwor and spread compassion. Soon, the deity came to be revered highly as Jamaleshwor, the one found in Jamal. Eventually, the name got corrupted, as happens often in Nepāl Bhāsā, to Janabahā Dyo. The courtyard where his temple is located is now popularly known as Janabahā.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_5c9b219530e400445ef4e7f64856b43e7cdb756be26d9ed4565c84044c178a7e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240418130432_5c9b219530e400445ef4e7f64856b43e7cdb756be26d9ed4565c84044c178a7e" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1668" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  The gilded temple of Janabahā Dyo, first built in the early 16th century CE, is adorned with wooden and metal artefacts that symbolise 108 forms of Ārya Avalokiteshwor. It stands out as the most decorated temple of its kind in Kathmandu. Today, Janabahā is a living heritage site where many ancient customs and rituals are widely practised as per Vajrayāna Buddhist tradition. Devotees throng the Janabahā Dyo shrine for daily worship and to receive Karunāmaya’s blessings. Being the compassionate one, Ārya Avalokiteshwor goes around town every year in his tall wooden chariot to allow sick and physically disabled devotees to pay homage to him from the comfort of their homes. One could say it is a door-to-door visit by the Compassionate One.&nbsp; For the pragmatic minded, the chariot festival is an annual renewal of communal harmony, validation of our ancient mathematical supremacy and demonstration of the need to keep practical skills alive, including the craft of building earthquake resilient houses.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_fc8b234ceca87dee4b99e897a485cef121fb953857fb61492a413fbfcc48360c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240418130432_fc8b234ceca87dee4b99e897a485cef121fb953857fb61492a413fbfcc48360c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  The Janabahā Dyo chariot is pulled from Jamal, where his image was found by the farmer, through the historic heart of Kathmandu in a gala parade every year. The procession, accompanied by folk music ensembles and revellers, starts on the eighth day of the bright half of the month of Chaitra, and lasts up to a week (ending on Saturday this year). Hundreds of devotees pull the chariot along the streets as a way of expressing their gratitude to lord Karunāmaya for blessing them with compassion and well-being. Purna Ratna Vajrāchārya is an ordained priest who belongs to the clan responsible for taking care of Janabahā Dyo. He has been studying the design and architecture of the chariot for the past 40 years, and overseeing its construction for the past 15. He has learnt that the engineering principles of building the chariot are based on the mathematical system in which Buddhism is taught. For example, 365 pieces of wood are used in the chariot, each representing a day of the year. Each of the four wheels consist of 25 pieces of wood, totalling 100, representing completeness or fulfilment. The chariot is vertically divided into 13 sections, a parallel to the Buddhist concept of Trayodashi Bhuvana that describes the 13 steps that one must take to achieve the state of Nirvana.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_36d9964c9845f6d9a074786361fc5ab7d49138503ad162086998b731349b0ec0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240418130432_36d9964c9845f6d9a074786361fc5ab7d49138503ad162086998b731349b0ec0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1668" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_2662753a9514a682ccdfd17bf05e2be3771183a68dc86b717ab67d9aad894563.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240418130432_2662753a9514a682ccdfd17bf05e2be3771183a68dc86b717ab67d9aad894563" data-rendition-name="original" width="1668" height="2500" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  &nbsp;Exactly nine types of wood are used, which is the sum of the four base elements that make up the universe (earth, water, fire and air) and the five human senses. The height and length of the chariot is 32 arm’s length (hāt in Sanskrit), 14.8m. The number 32 represents the maximum number of auspicious and physical qualities one could possess to be considered an outstanding human being.&nbsp; Says Vajrācharya, “Observing how the chariot is built helps one learn the fundamental pillars of the Buddha’s teachings, and find an easier path to Nirvana.” The structural design of the nearly 15m wooden chariot is not only awe-inspiring but also gravity-defying. It leverages the pliancy of the materials used in its construction -- flexible joints tied with cane soaked in water for several days. The precise proportions of the chariot ensure great manoeuverability in the narrow streets along the route of the chariot procession that include some 90° bends, without colliding into houses.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_9f5c2943f5d6b3f0010d3d5213697549945e87a6f7d3d8cbadd69f0dea6c6e2c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240418130432_9f5c2943f5d6b3f0010d3d5213697549945e87a6f7d3d8cbadd69f0dea6c6e2c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="3750" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  Driving and steering the chariot with brute muscle power of the mirthful crowd is a seemingly impossible task. But this has been achieved year after year, despite the fact that the devotees who tug wildly at the ropes lassoed to the two front wheels, are most likely in high-spirits (pun intended). Sanjay Manandhar, a US-based technology entrepreneur, recounts how his high school physics teacher from Canada asked his students to go observe the locals build the chariots of Karunāmaya if they were interested in becoming engineers in the future.&nbsp; “That made no sense to me then, but, after all these decades, I now see clearly how the structural design of the chariot, adopted early on by our ancestors is full of earthquake-resilient properties that need to be applied in building houses in an earthquake-prone zone like Nepal,” says Manandhar. A highlight of the chariot festival is that human goddess Kumari makes an appearance at the final destination in Lagan, usually on the third day. This is only one of the 13 times that people get to see the Kumari outside her temple abode.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_08aa39f3f004a212b33c60a2840d6013110de15dd34a0288f699dd5fda8957ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240418130432_08aa39f3f004a212b33c60a2840d6013110de15dd34a0288f699dd5fda8957ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  On the last day of the festival (Saturday), the image of lord Karunāmaya is carried on a palanquin by priests from Janabahā in a gala procession and brought back to his permanent residence at the temple in Kel Tol.&nbsp; The chariot festival is thought to have started during the reign of King Pratap Malla of Kantipur in the 17th century CE. For close to four centuries, the construction of the chariot and its operation has proven to be a phenomenal engineering feat, and the people’s faith in divinity means the tradition is alive.&nbsp; The essence of the colourful rituals and the religious beliefs of this ancient chariot festival is now all but lost. The logic, technology and practicality must be brought back to light, as they reflect the high civilisation and wisdom of our ancestors that we can leverage in modern times and into the future. &nbsp; Alok Tuladhar is a culture and heritage documentarian.

Kathmandu’s gravity-defying chariot festival

In the run-up to the third Nepal Investment Summit this weekend, there have been seminars, conferences and workshops where the discourse has revolved around the economy and the investment climate.
The consensus that Nepal needs foreign direct investments (FDI) to grow was repeated, and the familiar litany of reasons about why it has not been able to was discussed.&nbsp;
Policy advocates and regulators have understood that the lack of urgency is compounded by procedural inconsistencies, on top of the already deficient investment environment in the country.
It is a welcome change from what used to be flippantly accepting matters as given. There now seems to be a sense of urgency, with procedural inconsistencies and lack of harmonisation between various Acts and regulations openly discussed.&nbsp;
Government stakeholders also appear more willing to learn and attempt to be part of the solution. Whatever policy changes have been introduced in the past have been piecemeal and address the few rather than the entire industry. This left dual regulatory approaches aimed at similar players.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/killing-investment-in-nepal-in-10-easy-steps">Killing investment in Nepal in 10 easy steps</a>, Dibesh Karmacharya
This time, unlike in the past two Summits, the government seems to be committed to amending 9 Acts, a positive step towards showing commitment to change. However, the deadline to do so during the winter session of Parliament is over. The option mooted has been to have it passed through ordinance, a lesser appealing step; albeit, a positive one moving forward.&nbsp;
To attract FDI in a competitive global market means that Nepal has to demonstrate that it is serious about bringing in investments with a more consultative and collaborative approach with investors. A departure from procedural to a result-oriented focus is needed.&nbsp;
To put issues in perspective, Nepal needs US$20 billion in investments to meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets by 2030. If net-zero decarbonisation targets are to be met by 2045, another US$7 billion will be required annually.&nbsp;
Looking at our investment history and poor government capital expenditure, the gap is long and wide. In fiscal year 2022-23 Nepal booked a lamentable ~$59 million in FDI (equity). Nepal is in fact the lowest market in South Asia for FDI with 0.3% of the regional average.&nbsp;
What is it that we can do to fill the gap?&nbsp;
First, we need to move away from the notion that Nepal only needs large investments. This has proven to be a mistake, and time series data have proven that smaller investments, in aggregate, make a larger impact on economies.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal">Poor cash-rich Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale
We talk about an ‘enabling environment’ but without the right tools. We place restrictions on interest on debt ceiling (SOFR +5.5), without risk premium adjustments, we do not have an active secondary market for bond trading, nor do we have a yield curve, an integral part of the bond market, which is inhibiting us from tapping into the trillion dollar green bond market.&nbsp;
In order to attract green financing, Nepal needs to develop its bond market. Sovereign risk rating has been mooted and was expected to be operationalised before the Investment Summit.&nbsp;
However, to be rated in an adverse economic environment could further deteriorate investment potential due to a lesser-than-expected rating.&nbsp;
Hedging is another instrument that needs further research on. A commercial bank last year showcased the first risk-hedging mechanism for an investment of $8 million. This can be the beginning to expand on its modality. &nbsp;
Subordinated debt instruments have been introduced, but on a special nod basis, this now needs to be institutionalised as it is the most applicable form of investment after equity in a market that has volatile forex reserves.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment">Invest in investment</a>, Nepali Times
Viability Gap Funding has been introduced by multilateral development agencies implemented in solar installations. It is a tool to incentivise the private sector to invest in projects that are not financially lucrative initially, but have potential for profitability in the long run. This needs to be scaled up and replicated in sectors like infrastructure, where returns may not be immediate.
Moving forward, to attract FDI, Nepal needs to tap into the funds that are available for the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and climate change. Alternative investments such as Private Equity Venture Capital (PEVC) have been around in a structured manner in Nepal for nearly a decade now.
These funds have blended finance components and have attracted climate funding as well. PEVC is a new asset class and can address the issues of penetrating into SME financing by incorporating environment, social and governance issues into their investment process.&nbsp;
SMEs are the backbone of any economy, PEVC comes with the ability not only to scale up the enterprise with risk capital, but with the ability to bring technical knowhow to enhance not only the enterprise but also the entrepreneur.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/success-in-nepal-means-not-having-to-work">Success in Nepal means not having to work</a>, Anil Chitrakar
A differentiator from all other forms of financing available till date in Nepal. Blended finance is a way of de-risking investments, especially in frontier markets. Business Oxygen (BO2) is an example of blended finance with subordinated debt investments of IFC (World Bank Group) taking the lead and Climate Investment Funds along with FCDO as co-investors.&nbsp;
On a larger scale, the 216MW Upper Trisuli 1 is another example of blended finance with IFC, a Korean consortium and local investments. So far, we see that development finance Institutions have been taking the lead in Nepal as their risk appetite is greater than commercial investors and they are eager to help develop the financial markets.&nbsp;
In order to be sustainable, we need to step on this and attract commercial capital from all over the world. To do this there has to be political will to make that pivot.&nbsp;
Instead of being a means to an end, the two previous Investment Summits turned out to be intermittent and cosmetic, providing hardly any results. The third one’s success will depend on how the event will be implemented as a platform for continuous marketing for the country and facilitation for investors in future.&nbsp;
Nepal has outdone many countries in its macro-economic indicators, with sound forex reserves and a stellar history of debt payments to its creditors. This story needs to be propagated along with the drive for change to attract potential investors.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/alternative-investments-to-attract-fdi">Alternative investments to attract FDI</a>, Siddhant Raj Pandey

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