The first indication that Nepal’s voters were turning against mainstream parties was in local elections in May last year. In Kathmandu, Dharan and Dhangadi hitherto unknown candidates defeated established parties. But the big parties treated it as a blip, and carried on with business as usual, and in November’s federal and provincial elections, the independent RSP came out of nowhere to be the fourth largest party in Parliament. &nbsp; Still, the Nepali Congress (NC), UML and the Maoists refused to see the writing on the wall and kept playing politics without principles, making backroom power deals and not responding to the economic crisis and the people’s needs. So, in this week’s by-elections in three districts, voters threw them out. Harvard-educated economist Swarnim Wagle, who defected from the NC to join the RSP, won hands-down against his UML and NC rivals in Tanahu. And in Chitwan, the RSP’s leader Rabi Lamichhane defeated his NC rival by a landslide.&nbsp; Still, there does not seem to be indications of any alarm bells going off in the mainstream parties. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists said on Monday that there was a “danger of anarchy and emotion holding sway because of unregulated spread of social media”. He seemed to blame everyone but himself for the Maoist party being nowhere in the picture in this by-election in which it lent support to the NC. The NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba seemed slightly more circumspect, and got over his candidates’ surprise defeats by admitting that voters had “stopped showing an interest in old parties”. The question now is what he is going to do about it. The Wagle and Lamichhane wins have now given the RSP an additional seat in the House of Representatives, to take the total to 21. Wagle received 34,919 votes, much over NC candidate Govinda Bhattarai, who got 20,122 votes.&nbsp; Wagle seems to have carried over a chunk of the NC voter base to the RSP because of that party’s disenchantment with the party leadership of Sher Bahadur Deuba and his wife Arzoo for allying with the Maoists. Indeed, Ram Chandra Poudel— who vacated his parliamentary position after he was appointed the President— had received 25,361 votes in November, meaning that the NC received 5,000 fewer votes this time. Interestingly, UML voters seem to have flocked towards Wagle after he shifted to the RSP. The party’s candidate came in second place with 19,981 votes in November, but UML candidate Khanal received over 11,000 less votes. Over in Chitwan, Lamichhane got 54,170 votes, much higher than the NC’s Jit Narayan Shrestha who received 11,214. The fact that Lamichhane got nearly 5,000 more votes than in November shows that despite his citizenship scandals, he is even more popular because of public disenchantment with the NC-Maoist coalition.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230425120432_d22a196a216370f0d8361ec839924f4ac47cc2d6a46a2a84c950eeecff810424.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20230425120432_d22a196a216370f0d8361ec839924f4ac47cc2d6a46a2a84c950eeecff810424" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2400" loading="lazy" alt="Rabi Lamichhane NT"> <figcaption>Rastriya Swatantra Party chair Rabi Lamichhane receives his certification from the Chief Election Officer on Tuesday after winning the by-election from Chitwan-2. Photo: SADAN ADHIKARI/RSS</figcaption> </figure>  The turnout in all three districts has been almost as high as in November, which is contrary to the usual trend of by-elections having lower turnout. And it also shows that Nepali voters are finally thinking out of the box and abandoning inter-generational party allegiances. Wagle’s victory, for instance, showed that voters gave a thumbs down to the NC now allowing a technocrat like Wagle a ticket, and believing that the economist could find a way for the country to extricate itself from the current economic crisis. The personal attacks by NC leaders, including Gagan Thapa who used to be a friend and colleague of Swarnim Wagle, appears to have backfired on the party in Tanahu. Wagle, for his part, has refrained from direct attacks on any party or politician during this campaign – even though he had been publicly critical of the conjugal leadership of the Deubas in the NC.&nbsp; All the negative publicity regarding Lamichhane’s citizenship and passport, Kantipur exposing alleged corruption when he was briefly Home Minister in January, and a scandal involving an RSP MPs soliciting money from a tycoon do not appear to have affected Lamichhane’s support base. In fact, Lamichhane’s voters appear to have been convinced by his argument that the mainstream parties who are neck-deep in corruption were trying to frame him on a relatively minor mistake involving his passport. In Bara-2, where votes were still being counted till Tuesday afternoon, the JSP’s Upendra Yadav is leading with a margin of over 5,000 having received 18,096 votes so far. His closest challenger is Janamat’s Shiv Chandra Prasad Kushwaha. Like Lamichhane, Yadav is running for office for the second time, but unlike Lamichhane, Yadav lost the election in Saptari’s second constituency in November to Janamat chair CK Raut. Yadav is banking on winning in Bara and is said to have persuaded Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal to hold off on completing his Cabinet nomination in hopes of nabbing the position of Deputy Prime Minister. Even though the Chitwan and Tanahu wins for the RSP represent proof of a dramatic decline in support for mainstream parties, it remains to be seen if the RSP will be a true alternative party or behave just like the other established parties. After all, the RSP is a member of Prime Minister Dahal’s 10-party coalition and both Lamichhane and Wagle will be demanding their pound of flesh. Dahal will be in a dilemma because he knows that the Deubas do not like Wagle, and Lamichhane will want an important portfolio among the five still vacant, since his earlier home ministry is already taken. For the moment it is unclear if the RSP will be back in Prime Minister Dahal’s government.

Shristi Karki

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In with the new, out with the old

<figure><img width="1500" height="1007" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150232/63fe10c09c7e80680e0da4acjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>RSP Ministers (from left) Shishir Khanal, Dol Aryal and Toshima Karki submitting their resignations to Prime Minister Dahal on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>All three ministers of the independent RSP submitted their resignation to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal in Baluwatar on Sunday.Education, Science and Technology Minister Shishir Khanal, State Minister of Health Toshima Karki and Labour and Society Security Minister Dol Prasad Aryal resigned from their posts after a party meeting.RSP leader and former tv anchor Rabi Lamichhane was earlier stripped of his Home Ministership after the Supreme Court ruled two weeks ago that his Nepali citizenship was not valid.Lamichhane had renounced his American citizenship, but was said not to have renewed his Nepali one.But within four days Lamichhane had got his citizenship from the Kathmandu District Administration Office, and resumed chairmanship of the RSP. He then started lobbying to have his Home Minister post back. The UML and RPP had supported his demand, but Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who had taken over the Home Ministry portfolio, was against it. <figure><img width="2220" height="1446" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150232/63fe10c49c7e80680e0da4adjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In a meeting on Sunday morning, Dahal had offered Lamichhane another ministry, but Lamichhane refused and the RSP Central Committee decided to leave the coalition while still supporting the government. In a jam-packed press conference Lamichhane delivered a long speech in which he defended his citizenship issue, and lashed out at Nepal's mainstream media for targeting him. "The media accused us of conflict of interest, but I can expose the media's own conflict of interest and political agenda," he thundered, singling out by name Kantipur, onlinekhabar.com and Setopati.com and their publishers and editors by name. He threatened to surround the publications with his supporters if they continued to "transmit untruths".

RSP quits Nepal coalition

Kunda Dixit

Making overseas migration better

Scientist Arnico Panday talks to Nepali Times about why he became a politician and the reason he joined Rabi Lamichhane’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) which has seven directly elected MPs and 13 seats from the proportional vote. Panday withdrew his candidacy for health reasons, but is in the central committee of the RSP. Excerpts of interview:Nepali Times: You are an atmospheric scientist, what motivated you to stand for elections?Arnico Panday: I didn’t necessarily think about coming into politics because I was an atmospheric scientist. But because of the direction the country was going regarding issues including climate change, environment, heritage conservation, urbanisation, I felt a need for myself and others like me to have a louder voice in national affairs.Issues like air pollution and climate change need attention and solutions that go beyond finding new knowledge. For the past decade, I have been working in various policy advisory roles and found that they were not sufficient to get the change happening. The people who had the mandate and the power to make the decisions were not doing so, or were listening to outside advice. Also, I did have an inspiration in my friend Marcela Omena who I knew as a PhD student. She went on to become a minister of environment in Chile and got a lot done.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-with-the-new-out-with-some-of-the-old/">In with the new, out with (some of) the old</a>, Anita BhetwalBut you stepped down as a candidate after contracting Covid and your replacement candidate Toshima Karki had an upset win from Lalitpur-3. Did that surprise you?The whole time I was thinking I would contest from Lalitpur-3, the thought was that the chance was very small. And a month before the election, we thought it was a long shot for Toshima too. But about a week before the election when I went door to door with her, I realised how popular she was, and how much support there was for her.I suppose the trouble she had with the Election Commission gave her a lot of free publicity, and that must have helped. But we saw that in many places people were just tired of the lack of delivery by old political parties and they saw candidates from our party, many of whom are a generation younger represent hope for the change they wanted.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/seats-of-power/">Seats of power</a>, Shristi Karki<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100128/63bfd3159c7e80680e0d3048jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>What will your role now be in the RSP?I’m on the central committee of RSP and I work very closely with party chair Rabi Lamichhane. We now need to expand the party structure, and switch from a start-up mode to a functioning organisation. What my exact role will depend on what the party’s role will be next, whether we will be in the opposition or part of the coalition government.I will continue to strongly represent the issues of climate change, environment and urban planning but a lot of other key issues too that resonated with our voters like bringing people back to Nepal. Nepal depends quite a bit on remittance, but that comes at a very high cost. We need to have jobs at home and more industries that create products we can export. We need to go beyond exporting people and importing goods with the money they send home. We also have a very strong anti-corruption message.Has the RSP been invited by the Nepali Congress to join the coalition government?We’ve had all kinds of informal reaching out. Our position has been that we are not opposed to joining the coalition government, but it will depend on who will be on the overall Cabinet and what kind of joint agenda there will be. Will joining the coalition help us deliver some of the promises we made to the voters? Will it allow us to build our profile as a no-nonsense party that gets things done at a low cost? Or does it just turn us into another one of the same?We are not here for just the next two years, we would like to get a majority in the next election five years from now. We got a lot of votes because people had high hopes that we would do something. Next time we will get votes because we will have shown that we get things done.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-past-is-foretold-in-nepal-poll-results/">The past is foretold in Nepal poll results</a>, Shristi Karki<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100128/63bfd3199c7e80680e0d3049jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>What would be some of the reasons your newly-formed party managed to win so many seats in the federal Parliament?A lot of voters are tired of old political parties, their lack of delivery, lack of care for common people’s problems and corruption. I think Nepali voters have a pattern of giving new guys a chance. We are a fresh group of people, we don’t know how to do politics, many of us do not know how to do speeches, we are coming with good intentions to make a difference.Our party chair Rabi Lamichhane being a very well-known face also made a big difference. He is someone with a long track record of doing what the state and the elected leaders should have been doing. In parts of Nepal, he is a folk hero who has done a lot from building a hospital in Kalikot to working with the Nepali diaspora to organise oxygen cylinders during the Covid-19 pandemic.It doesn’t seem like the RSP supports federalism much. But isn’t devolution a good thing?We have nothing against devolution of power, budget or decision-making. Our only concern has been with the provincial government structure which is extremely costly yet not delivering anything. We are not against having provinces but it is set up all wrong, and we want to improve it. We have put forth some proposals for a much leaner provincial government system.Does your shift to politics signify that politics is the best way to find a resolution for a lot of our environmental problems like air pollution, waste management and climate change?As a scientist working in policy advisory coming into politics, I think you need a combination of a lot of things to work. You need knowledge created by science, but that alone will not bring about change. People have known about the basic science behind climate change since the 1960s but actions didn’t take place. It is elected leaders and people in positions of power who make the decisions. So we need knowledgeable, responsible politicians who will act in the best long-term interests of the people.In my own personal journey, it seemed like the right time to engage in politics even though it is not something that comes naturally to me. I wouldn’t say this is the best way universally to address the issues, but without sufficient attention in politics, things are not going to move forward.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/back-to-the-future/">Back to the future</a>, Santa Gaha Magar

Arnico Panday, the political scientist

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100128/63bfd2cb9c7e80680e0d3038jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1040" height="550"/><figcaption>Constituencies won by Rastriya Swatantra Party under the First Post The Past system.</figcaption></figure>Rabi Lamichhane’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has emerged as the most unexpected winner of the recently concluded general elections for a party formed just 141 days before voting day.Most political parties find it difficult to establish themselves even after decades of existence, but the RSP won seven direct seats in the federal parliament and received over 1.13 million votes under the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-urban-voters/">Proportional Representation</a> (PR) mechanism.However, analysts are quick to point out, since the RSP solely banked on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-poll-results-signal-upset/">voter disillusionment over the mainstream political parties</a> it will have a difficult time establishing its relevance in future. Indeed, the fresh-faced candidates also rode on the independent wave following the successes of the likes of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/making-kathmandu-great-again/">Balen Shah</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/">Harka Sampang</a> who were elected mayors of Kathmandu and Dharan in the May local election.“The people have been frustrated to an extent that they had already made up their minds to vote for new faces which is why so many people chose the RSP without really understanding their philosophy or ideology,” says Bharatpur-based political commentator Prem Rimal.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-nepali-people-have-spoken/">The Nepali people have spoken</a>, Sonia AwaleThe success of the RSP has many questioning if the party is a national party at all, or just an expression of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dejected-voters-reject-polls/">urban disenchantment</a>. The elections was a battle between traditional vote bank politics and citizens excercising individual choice, and the fact that the Nepali Congress (NC) and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-past-is-foretold-in-nepal-poll-results/">UML still dominate</a> means vote banks are still important.Looking at the RSP’s performance under the First Past The System (FPTP), it received a significant number of votes in 13 constituencies with the highest in Chitwan-1 and 2, Lalitpur-3, Rupandehi-2 and Nawalparasi East-1. RSP candidates also received a fairly good number of votes in Jhapa-1, 4 and 5, Morang-1 and 6, Chitwan-3, Nawalparasi West-1, Rupandehi-1, Dang-1, 2 and 3, Kathmandu-2, 6, 7, 8 and 9, Nuwakot-2, Kaski-1, 2 and 3, and Sunsari-1 and 2.The RSP has been elected in seven of these constituencies with the party chair Rabi Lamichhane receiving the most votes at 49,264 from Chitwan-2. This is 34,000 more than what former health minister Umesh Shrestha of the NC contesting as a governing coalition candidate received.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-poll-results-signal-upset/">Nepal poll results signal upset</a>, Sonia AwaleOn the other hand, despite losing in Morang and Sunsari in Province 1, the RSP managed to rack up a significant number of votes from the constituencies. “People in Morang and Sunsari have long been dissatisfied with the old political parties and this disenchantment doesn’t take long to be converted into votes,” says Biratnagar-based political scientist and professor Subhaga Gautam.During Toshima Karki’s door-to-door campaign in Lalitpur-3 people said they were done with the old crop of politicians and their non-performance. A middle-aged Lalitpur local told her: "The UML, Congress, and Maoists have doomed the country. I hope for your win but do not become like them once you get to power.”Economic analyst Manikar Karki says people are of the mindset to choose anyone new as long as they are not the old leaders of the mainstream parties. “At any cost, out with the old, in with the new is what the people have said out loud,” he adds.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/back-to-the-future/">Back to the future</a>, Santa Gaha MagarThe RSP similarly secured 14,000 votes in Rupandehi-1 and 25,000 in Rupandehi -2. Analyst Karki, who is a resident of Butwal says this is primarily due to the dissatisfaction of people with the incumbent and because the older parties had not filed a new candidate.“With the RSP not stating their political agenda clearly, it seems the people have voted for them without understanding their policies or principles,” warns Karki. “The votes received by the RSP is just an expression of anger, we can’t call it a wave just yet.”Bishwa Sigdel, a sociologist from Pokhara, says that he is surprised that the RSP managed to win so many votes from his area in a short period but credits it to the people who wanted something new since each democratic movement.He adds: “People in Kaski have rejected the old leaders who they consider corrupt and incompetent. The RSP has been successful because of Rabi Lamichhane’s popularity and its anti-corruption stance.”Translated from the Nepali original published on himalkhabar.comRead more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-past-is-foretold-in-nepal-poll-results/">The past is foretold in Nepal poll results</a>, Shristi Karki

In with the new, out with (some of) the old

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059759c7e80680e0ce1eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"/><figcaption>Toshima Karki of Rastriya Swatantra Party after her win in Lalitpur-3. Photos: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059799c7e80680e0ce1efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390597c9c7e80680e0ce1f0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366">Antiestablishmentarianism. That new word has entered Nepal’s political lexicon.Kathmandu has elected a lawyer, Lalitpur a doctor, both women under 35 from the independent Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which was formed just five months ago by tv anchor <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-balen-the-rabi-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rabi Lamichhane</a>, who also won from Chitwan.Major municipalities had just voted for independent candidates like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandus-balen-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Balen Shah</a> and Harka Sampang in the May local election when Lamichhane decided to ride the wave. Since then, the outrage of many Nepalis over the country’s non-performing serial politicians seems to have only grown.To be sure, the 30-year Congress-Communist polarisation that destabilised Nepal’s politics is here to stay with Nepali Congress (NC) and the opposition UML set to retain their dominance in the new federal parliament, but independent candidates will be the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-poll-results-signal-upset/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new movers and shakers</a>.The RSP has swept 4 out of 10 Kathmandu seats, other independents have also raked up anti-establishment votes rejecting the likes of Ishwar Pokhrel, Onsari Gharti Magar, Pampha Bhusal, Shankar Pokharel, Kamal Thapa, Upendra Yadav, Ramkumari Jhakri and Rabindra Mishra.The Maoist-Centre fared poorly everywhere, showing that voters are not impressed with their efforts to airbrush war crimes, and their past record. The Unified Socialists were punished for their opportunistic and unprincipled involvement in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/coalition-collision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">5-party coalition</a>. Indeed, the big question now is if the coalition will even get enough seats to form a government.“The general population is not satisfied with mainstream political parties fighting elections through alliances,” says NC leader Minendra Rijal who was not given a ticket for the polls by his party. “The governing coalition is unlikely to fare as well. There was disappointment before, but now people are even more bitter.”Many supporters of the NC and Maoist-Centre appear to have defied party edicts and voted against each other and for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/depending-on-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">independent or rebel candidates</a>. Although the UML is also losing some of its support base to new candidates, it has fared better.“The coalition votes were split and scattered. The losers this time are Maoist Centre, Unified Socialists, and the Madhes-based JSP and LSP,” explains political analyst Puranjan Acharya.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059809c7e80680e0ce1f1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1435" height="855"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Until press time on Thursday, the NC had won 32 seats in Parliament and is leading in 20 constituencies. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/young-turks-not-getting-their-turn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gagan Thapa</a>, who is also NC General Secretary, has publicly declared that he would like to be the next prime minister and replace "those who have had many chances in the past to serve the country”. But that will depend on the fate of NC and the governing coalition in the coming days, it is certain no one party is going to get a majority.The opposition UML is leading in 29 constituencies and has locked in 19 seats. The Maoist Centre is trailing far behind with just 9 seats and leading in only 7 constituencies while Unified Socialist has 7 and so does RSP. RPP has won 4, Loktantrik Samajbadi and Nagarik Unmukti have 2 each while Janata Smajwadi, Rastriya Janamorcha, Janamat and Nepal Kisan Majdur have each won one seat so far. In the far west Tarai, the Nagarik Unmukti party of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ground-zero-kailali-nepal,2535" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Resham Chaudhary</a> and Rastriya Janamorcha are ahead of the race in the Tarai, with more established Madhes-based parties struggling.The UML is doing even better than the NC in seats under the Proportional Representation (PR) mechanism, already raking up 603,708 votes. NC has received 572,698 votes so far. The Unified Socialists, which split from the UML, is not getting even one PR seat.The RSP is also forecast to add many more PR seats, perhaps even becoming the third-largest party ahead of the Maoist Centre in the new federal Parliament. This is a dramatic rise for a party that was formed only six months.Many young and forceful candidates campaigning for good governance, accountability, better service delivery and job-creation have been elected, and there will be more as results come in. The people have spoken, it is now for the antiestablishmentarians to shake things up in Nepal's legislature.NC leader Minendra Rijal told Himal Khabar in an interview: “We must congratulate the RSP, but their road ahead is not easy. People had once voted the Maoists to power by a landslide out of frustration with mainstream parties. We all know what became of them.”He adds: “At the same time, I request my party mates to put a halt on their aspirations for prime ministership for now and instead focus on revamping Nepali Congress which will be in the interest of both the country and the party itself.”<h2>When final results?</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059839c7e80680e0ce1f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="684"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Five days after the general elections, only half of the constituencies have had their votes counted and winners announced. In the lead up to the polls, the Election Commission has estimated all the results for First Past The Post candidates to come in a week’s time, and by 1 December, announce the complete outcome.Authorities had taken 13 days to count the votes following the local election in May, where 34,953 representatives were elected in 6 metropolitan cities, 11 sub-metropolitan cities, 276 municipalities and 460 rural municipalities.The 20 November federal elections, however, had far fewer candidates at 11,543 and also fewer seats to fill in, 275 in the House of Representative and 550 in the Provincial Assembly.Unlike in the local elections, this time one didn’t have to vote for many posts in the ballot. In fact, there were four separate ballot boxes to make it easy for counting," says former Chief Election Commissioner Ayodhi Prasad Yadav. "Which is why we should get the results within a week."Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Kumar Thapaliya agrees: “By 8 December, we plan to publish the complete results including that of the Proportional Representation. If required we will fly the ballot in from the remote parts of the country.”Many Nepalis <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lower-than-usual-turnout-in-nepal-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">did not even bother to vote</a> in the polls, recording the lowest turnout in recent years at only 61%. In Rolpa where the Maoist insurgency began in 1996, turnout was a mere 40% and it was similar in Gorkha from where Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre is contesting.Much of this is because of the people’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dejected-voters-reject-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disillusionment with mainstream parties</a>. But Nepal’s flawed electoral system is also to be blamed. There is no voting by mail despite a 2018 Supreme Court ruling meaning nearly 5 million Nepalis living and working abroad cannot exercise their rights.The excuse for this is that mail voting could open up avenues for fraud, but the real reason is that it will allow for young, educated Nepalis to further undermine the establishment and vote for alternative candidates.The government is also in no hurry to introduce <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/counting-every-vote/">electronic voting machines</a> because the parties don’t trust each other and fear that the other might cheat. Ironic, given that the Maoists got away with tearing up hardcopy ballot papers in Chitwan in 2017.The fact that this is an election of alliances where parties of diametrically opposing ideologies have come together has made it that much more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/voters-cynical-about-electoral-alliances/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">confusing for voters</a>. This could have meant that the large proportion of ballot papers were disqualified, skewing the outcome itself.The good news is that learning from the May local election, the Election Commission has this time made four separate ballot papers for different seats.Even so, Nepal needs a more reliable <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/counting-every-vote/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vote counting system</a> in place which as of now is as archaic as they come. And contrary to what our leaders believe, it would make the counting fairer and faster.The longer counting takes, the higher the temptation for the losing side to disrupt the process, perhaps cheat and even resort to violence. Some of this is happening in constituencies where established leaders are trailing.

Sonia Awale

The Nepali people have spoken

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059449c7e80680e0ce1dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="684"/><figcaption>Photos: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>As the results of Sunday’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lower-than-usual-turnout-in-nepal-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">federal and provincial elections</a> trickle in, there are signs that Nepal’s voters have made their dissatisfaction with the country’s serial politicians clear.While early results show that the rivalry between the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML that dates back 30 years is still as fierce as ever, Nepal’s politics may be seeing the dawn of a new era.Heavyweights of established parties trail in several important constituencies, the Maoist-Centre and the Unified Socialists have fared poorly everywhere, the royal-right parties have not got the votes they expected, and the five-party governing coalition is in shambles.The reason for this appears to be mainly that many supporters of the NC and Maoist-Centre voted for independents or rebel candidates, rejecting the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/voters-cynical-about-electoral-alliances/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">alliance of convenience</a> between the right and left-wing parties. Although the UML is also losing a lot of votes to new and independent candidates, the opposition UML appears to have been able to better ride out the storm.Rabi Lamichanne’s newly-minted independent Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and other independent candidates are also faring well in many constituencies. Even in places where they are not leading, they show that many voters have abandoned the established parties they used to be loyal to. In many ways, election results so far show a rejection by voters of Nepal’s serial politicians.Indeed, many Nepalis did not even bother to vote with Sunday’s polls recording the lowest turnout in recent years at only 61%. In Rolpa where the Maoist insurgency began in 1996, turnout was a mere 40% and it was similar in Gorkha from where Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre is contesting.It may be too early to call this an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/depending-on-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">‘independent wave’</a> in Nepali politics, but the RSP, other independents and younger leaders from the main parties could be the new kingmakers.“From the figures so far, it is clear that the RSP’s strong results show that voters are fed up of the same old faces,” says political analyst Punarjan Acharya.He adds: “It is also clear that the UML has done better than many expected despite internal party strife and having to do battle with the ice-party alliance.”Overnight, Prakash Man Singh of the NC was declared winner in Kathmandu-1, where he narrowly edged our Rabindra Misha by a mere 218 votes. This was a repeat of 2017 when Mishra, who had contested the same constituency from the alternative Bibeksheel Sajha, had lost to Singh by a narrow margin. This is the fourth win for the scion of one of the NC’s founding leaders, Ganesh Man Singh.In Lalitpur-2, UML candidate Prem Bahadur Maharjan received 15,025 votes to beat Sudin Shakya of the new Hamro Nepali Party and Buddha Ratna Maharjan of Rastriya Swatantra Party. Maharjan appears to have benefited from the new smaller parties splitting the votes.Elsewhere in Bhaktapur-2, Durlav Thapa Chettri of NC and Mahesh Basnet of UML are battling it out, but the former is now leading with nearly 1,000 votes more.In one of the earliest outcomes, NC  had a clean sweep in Mustang with Yogesh Gauchan, 29, was elected as the youngest MP so far. The pair of Namdu Gurung and Bikal Sherchan also won provincial seats in Gandaki.The NC  has also managed a provincial seat from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manang</a> with Munundra Jung Gurung’s win. Independent Rajiv Gurung has locked in another seat from the district having won unopposed earlier.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059469c7e80680e0ce1e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="833" height="589"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059489c7e80680e0ce1e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390594d9c7e80680e0ce1e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390594f9c7e80680e0ce1e3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Till press time on Tuesday morning, the NC had won three provincial seats and was leading in 45 constituencies while UML has one win with its candidates maintaining their lead in 35 others.The Maoist Centre leads in just 11 areas while the Unified Socialists and RSP with leads in 8 constituencies each. The UML is expected to do better than the NC in seats under the Proportional Representation (PR) mechanism.The RSP is also forecast to add many more PR seats, perhaps even as the fourth-largest party in the new federal Parliament. This is a dramatic rise for a party that was formed only six months ago by charismatic former tv anchor Rabi Lamichhane and who was joined by young and forceful candidates campaigning for good governance, accountability, better service delivery and job-creation.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-balen-the-rabi-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rabi Lamichhane</a> himself has fallen behind the NC’s Umesh Shrestha in Chitwan-2, but that could be because the votes so far counted are mainly from coalition strongholds.RSP is, however, leading in Chitwan-2 where Hari Dhakal is ahead of NC’s Biswo Paudel and UML’s Surendra Pandey, the MP from the constituency in 2017. Former House Speaker Onsari Gharti of the Maoist Centre is also trailing behind Rastriya Swatantra Party’s Sobita Gautam in Kathmandu-2.The RSP’s Toshima Karki, a physician, is edging past the UML’s Amrit Khadka to lead in Lalitpur-3. Maoist Centre’s Pampha Bhusal who is also Energy Minister is trailing behind the two.The RSP’s, Shishir Khanal, and education reformer, is far ahead of former police chief Sarbendra Khanal of the UML in Kathmandu-6, and is likely to win. The RSP is also leading in constituencies in Kaski, Jhapa and Rupandehi districts.“The coalition votes were split and scattered. The way I see it, losers this time are Maoist Centre, Unified Socialist, and the Mashes-based JSP and LSP,” says analyst Acharya.He adds that this is the direct result of the Maoist Centre and Unified Socialists (US) seeking more constituencies than their ability. “If the NC had a candidate in 25 more constituencies instead of distributing it to the Maoists and US, it would have ensured a bigger victory for the party,” explains Acharya. “Except now, they have pretty much gifted many of seats to the UML.”Elsewhere, the NC’s General Secretary <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/young-turks-not-getting-their-turn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gagan Thapa</a> looks set to win Kathmandu-4 with UML’s Rajan Bhattarai trailing. Thapa has publicly declared that he would like to be the next prime minister and replace those “who have had many chances in the past to serve the country”.In Kathmandu-7, it looks like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-daughter-also-rises/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manushi Bhattarai</a> will have a hard time catching up with her rivals — despite support from the coalition. Her father, former Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai had swapped his Gurkha constituency with Pushpa Kamal Dahal to win Maoist support for Manushi.The royal-right Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) chair <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajendra Prasad Lingden</a> has taken an initial lead in Jhapa-3 where the UML-backed leader is up against the coalition’s Krishna Prasad Sitaula of NC.Uday Shumsher Rana of NC has taken a lead in Lalitpur-1 slightly edging past Nawaraj Silwal of UML. In Kathmandu-5, it’s the battle of new faces with Hamro Nepal Party’s Suman Sayami just ahead of Biraj Bhakta Shrestha of Rastriya Swatantra Party in the vote counting.Erstwhile separatist <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/ck-raut-madhes-movement,1677" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CK Raut</a> has also taken an initial lead in Saptari-2 with Jayprakash Thakur of Lokatantrik Samjbadi and Upendra Yadav of Janata Samajbadi trailing behind. Maoist Centre on the other hand has also taken an initial lead in Jajarkot with Shakti Basnet ahead of Niraj Acharya of UML.