The mainstream and online media have a voracious appetite for hard news because they need to keep feeding the beast. Press meets are cheap to cover on deadline, they do not need much context or analysis.&nbsp;
Politicians know that, and provide reporters with soundbites masquerading as 'news'. In this symbiotic politico-media landscape, politicians know that journalists know that it is all spin. But they still need it for their perpetual news machines. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Politicians play to the gallery, and the mainstream media laps it all up to push it out as straight news through social media handles. &nbsp;As politics and media merge, it is also getting difficult to tell the difference between what used to be the mass media and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-message-is-the-medium-z5w3ekk2">social media</a>.&nbsp;
The tail is wagging the dog. Social media videos and posts by politicians become grist for the mass media, which then pushes it out as news via the same platforms on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/internet-in-everything">the social web</a>. The public therefore has no need to subscribe to or read newspapers, or tune into the evening news on radio or tv. Everything they want to know is right there on their smartphones.&nbsp;
In the past, newspapers competed with radio and tv. More recently, the legacy media vied for readership with news portals. Now, online news sites have also become legacy media since they rely on the same revenue sources: advertising or corporate promoters. Paywalls, subscriptions and crowd-funding have not worked in Nepal for online media.
The real mass media in this new news age is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tiktok-has-taken-nepal-by-storm">TikTok</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mobile-nepal-is-hooked-on-youtube">YouTube</a> and Facebook. Information has to compete with entertainment for eyeballs, and it is a losing battle.&nbsp;
At a time when journalism has an ever more important role in safeguarding democracy and press freedom against populist demagogues, media companies are at their financially weakest, struggling for revenue, and to remain relevant.
International <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/press-for-people">Press Freedom</a> Day on 3 May serves as a reminder that a financially dependent media cannot be politically independent. Governments around the world know this, and are glad the press is no longer holding power to account.&nbsp;
Much of this was on display this week as Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the RSP’s Rabi Lamichhane, and Gagan Thapa of the NC all took to social media either directly or through legacy media reporters to position themselves in the new scenario after by-elections. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Between inaugurating a new cable car and attending a trade union event on 1 May, Prime Minister Dahal squeezed in a meeting with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-reign-god">Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP</a>.&nbsp;
Dahal and Lamichhane lead the third and fourth largest parties in Parliament, and need each other. Lamichhane’s political capital went up after his party’s wins in last week's by-elections. Lamichhane is driving a hard bargain, and is not in a mood to settle for anything less than Home Minister and deputy prime minister.
If Dahal does not maintain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/old-wine-in-old-bottles">the magic 138 votes in Parliament</a>, he will have to seek a third vote of confidence. For his part, Lamichhane needs the post to make his dual passport case go away.&nbsp;
In the coming days, it will be revealing to read into social media posts of politicians, as journalists try to go beyond the soundbites to make sense of why they are saying what they are saying. &nbsp;

Sonia Awale

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The new news age

<figure><img width="1500" height="1007" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150232/63fe10c09c7e80680e0da4acjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>RSP Ministers (from left) Shishir Khanal, Dol Aryal and Toshima Karki submitting their resignations to Prime Minister Dahal on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>All three ministers of the independent RSP submitted their resignation to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal in Baluwatar on Sunday.Education, Science and Technology Minister Shishir Khanal, State Minister of Health Toshima Karki and Labour and Society Security Minister Dol Prasad Aryal resigned from their posts after a party meeting.RSP leader and former tv anchor Rabi Lamichhane was earlier stripped of his Home Ministership after the Supreme Court ruled two weeks ago that his Nepali citizenship was not valid.Lamichhane had renounced his American citizenship, but was said not to have renewed his Nepali one.But within four days Lamichhane had got his citizenship from the Kathmandu District Administration Office, and resumed chairmanship of the RSP. He then started lobbying to have his Home Minister post back. The UML and RPP had supported his demand, but Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who had taken over the Home Ministry portfolio, was against it. <figure><img width="2220" height="1446" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150232/63fe10c49c7e80680e0da4adjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In a meeting on Sunday morning, Dahal had offered Lamichhane another ministry, but Lamichhane refused and the RSP Central Committee decided to leave the coalition while still supporting the government. In a jam-packed press conference Lamichhane delivered a long speech in which he defended his citizenship issue, and lashed out at Nepal's mainstream media for targeting him. "The media accused us of conflict of interest, but I can expose the media's own conflict of interest and political agenda," he thundered, singling out by name Kantipur, onlinekhabar.com and Setopati.com and their publishers and editors by name. He threatened to surround the publications with his supporters if they continued to "transmit untruths".

RSP quits Nepal coalition

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150228/63fe103b9c7e80680e0da48cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2400"/><figcaption>Photo: PRADEEP RAJ ONTA/RSS</figcaption></figure>On 27 January, hours after Nepal’s Supreme Court ruled that Rabi Lamichhane was not eligible to hold his political positions because he had failed to reacquire his Nepali citizenship after renouncing his American one, he walked out of his offices at the Home Ministry and declared dramatically: “I am stateless.”The tv anchor-turned-politician was using irony to depict his predicament, but also a determination to get back his job as Home Minister and put the whole thing behind him.It may not be so easy.The Lamichhane affair has sparked debate about Nepali citizenship, with people drawing attention to the estimated 1.5 million Nepalis who still do not have citizenship papers, the discriminatory laws about children getting citizenship by descent through their Nepali mothers, but also Lamichhane’s own human right to citizenship.Within two days, it was easy for Lamichhane to restore his citizenship from the Kathmandu District Administration, unlike many stateless Nepalis. He was then quickly reinstated as chair of the RSP, the fourth-largest party in Parliament.‘Those who are speaking so casually about statelessness should ask someone who is stateless about the pain they have to endure,’ Mohna Ansari, former commissioner of the National Human Rights Commission wrote on Twitter, alluding to Lamichhane’s remark. ‘They are unable to get a driving license, pursue higher education, open a bank account, obtain loans, or get paid what they are owed at work.’Lamichhane may also have to face a criminal investigation into his Nepali passport, which he is understood to have obtained in 2015 through his old papers despite having been granted US citizenship in 2014.And while Nepal’s civil society is paying close attention to upcoming developments vis-a-vis Lamichhane, so is Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal.Lamichhane has been busy all week lobbying with Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahaland the UML’s K P Oli to have his powerful Home Ministry job back. Oli and another coalition partner, Rajendra Lingden of the RPP are for reinstating Lamichhane, but the prime minister has kept the home ministry portfolio for himself and appears reluctant to give it up.If granted the Home Ministry once again, Lamichhane can hold the position for six months without being an MP, but has to contest by-elections in his constituency in Chitwan-2 to get back his House seat.Lamichhane for his part has made it clear to Dahal that his party’s support of the government will depend upon whether RSP gets back the Home Ministry as per its deal to endorse Dahal for Prime Minister. The UML, for its part, has hinted at a compromise solution: someone from the RSP other than Lamichhane as Home Minister.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150228/63fe10409c7e80680e0da48djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2829" height="3310"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>All the bargaining over Lamichhane’s future has put the already fragile seven-party coalition in an even more precarious position. The royalist Hindu-right RPP, despite being in government, has of late openly challenged Nepal’s federal and secular Constitution in Parliament, prompting the PM to warn that he may have to take action against members of his government who voice such opinions.Meanwhile, the JSP has still not joined the government because it is not satisfied with the ministry it was given. CK Raut’s Janamat Party had also refused to accept the Ministry of Water Supply after the party did not get the promised Ministry of Industry, but changed its mind later on.The Nagarik Unmukti Party’s unmet demands to release its leader Resham Chaudhary,  who is serving a prison sentence for the murder of policemen in Tikapur in 2015, has brought even provincial politics in the Sudurpaschim to a standstill.But while one or two fringe parties pulling out of the coalition may not dent Dahal’s government, the RSP and RPP both withdrawing its support certainly would. Even more damaging would be the UML leaving the coalition, which looks increasingly likely given the distrust between Dahal and UML chair Oli regarding who will get to be the next President.Nepali Congress (NC) chair Sher Bahadur Deuba wants the president’s position to go to his party, which is the biggest in Parliament, in exchange for giving Dahal’s government the vote of confidence.But while PM Dahal is receptive to the idea, the UML does not want the Maoists to renege on the deal that granted the UML the positions of Speaker, Presidency, and premiership after two-and-a-half years in return for Dahal becoming PM. Dahal is therefore juggling the demands of seven parties, factions within them and the opposition NC all at once.On Monday, UML General Secretary Shankar Pokharel said that the Nepali Congress cannot claim the presidency as the party is in opposition.Dahal has met Oli and Deuba to try to find a way out.“Establishing national consensus for the presidency should mean building a consensus within the governing coalition,” said Pokharel, speaking to the media from Biratnagar airport. “Since the coalition has a majority in the provinces as well as Parliament, our candidate will undoubtedly win the Presidency.”Meanwhile, CPN-Unified Socialist chair Madhav Kumar Nepal—who is also not part of Dahal’s  government— warned that the UML would become too authoritarian if it also got the presidency. “The question is whether the Maoists understand this,” Nepal added.But even if the Maoist-UML coalition breaks over the election of the president due on 9 March, a Maoist-NC coalition would be unable to form a majority through the strength of their two parties alone. To achieve that, support from the RSP and RPP will be crucial to both the UML and NC.The Election Commission has set the presidential election for 9 March, and the vice-president’s election for 17 March. Candidates must register their candidacy by 25 February.

Shristi Karki

Rabi Lamichhane is Home-less

<figure><img width="3600" height="1798" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140220/63e3a1989c7e80680e0d708cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A meeting of council of ministers this week. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s President is a ceremonial post with only residual powers. Why then is there such a tug-o-war going on about who gets to replace President Bidya Devi Bhandari after her five-year term expires on 13 March?
Why are the supreme men of the three main parties acting as if the sky will fall if they do not get their candidate to be elected the next president?
Because they know how much the President’s constitutional power can be abused to do the bidding of the prime minister, as has happened repeatedly in the past four years. Bhandari’s candidacy for president was strongly backed by K P Oli when he was prime minister, and she quickly gave her stamp of approval when Parliament was dissolved <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-pm-oli-goes-it-alone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">to stave off a challenge from Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Sher Bahadur Deuba.</a>
The move was stopped by the Supreme Court, and Deuba succeeded Oli as prime minister. But when he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/coalition-set-to-snub-president-bhandari/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tried to pass ordinances on the citizenship bill</a>, to allow parties to split, or give blanket pardon for war crimes, President Bhandari was not as prompt in signing them.   
After the November election, Oli pulled a fast one and got Dahal to defect from Deuba to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/left-led-coalition-upturns-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">form the 7-party coalition</a> which is currently in power. In return for letting Dahal have a first go at being prime minister, Oli secured a deal to have the posts of President and Speaker of the House of Representatives.
But such is the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-political-economy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">level of mistrust between him and Oli</a>, that Dahal soon started having misgivings about letting the UML have so much power. And because of Oli’s past behaviour, Dahal and Deuba feared that giving the UML all three posts of president, prime minister and speaker would make Oli all-powerful after two-and-half years.
As per the agreement with the Maoists, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/conflicting-interests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">UML already has its Devraj Ghimire as Speaker</a>, while the RSP got Indira Rana Magar in as Deputy Speaker. Now that a weighted electoral college of federal and provincial assembly members needs to elect a new President, the UML is in a collision course with the Maoists and NC.
The Election Commission has set the date for the election on 9 March, just two days before President Bhandari’s term is over. The NC says the election should be on 11 February, one month before the president steps down, as stipulated by the Constitution.
But more contentious than the date is whether the UML will maintain its support for the 7-party coalition if it does not get its candidate to be president.  
Dahal got Deuba to support the government<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-illiberal-democracy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> despite the NC being in the opposition</a>, reportedly with the assurance that a Congress nominee would get to be president. But Maoists and the NC combined do not have the numbers to do that. Having given his word to both the UML and the NC about the presidentship, Dahal is in a bind, and has said he is seeking “a national consensus” on a candidate.
This is where the high drama surrounding the Supreme Court verdict on 20 January about the RSP’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-and-fall-of-rabi-lamichhane/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rabi Lamichhane’s citizenship</a> becomes critical. Lamichhane was forced to step down as Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, but this week applied and got back his citizenship, and was reinstated as party boss.
There is now a move to file a case against him for breach of the Citizenship Act, and make him ineligible to hold office, while Lamichhane with backing from the UML, is trying to regain his Home Minister post. The UML’s claim for presidentship would be bolstered by Lamichhane continuing to be a powerful member of the Cabinet, and Oli’s game plan is to keep the coalition intact.
The NC is likely to field Krishna Sitaula or Ram C Paudel as president, while <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/baburam-bhattarais-4-point-formula/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Baburam Bhattarai</a> could also be a candidate from the Maoist party when it unites with the Nepal Socialist Party and becomes the CPN-Socialist. Oli appears to want President Bhandari to continue for a second term, and failing that may put forward Subhas Nembang.
The post of president should not involve such political wheeling-dealing. Ideally it is the turn of a Janjati or Dalit candidate to represent the spirit of inclusion enshrined in the Constitution. But more importantly, it should be someone who is a respected a-political person – and there are plenty of  Nepalis to choose from.

An unceremonious President

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a13d9c7e80680e0d7074jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2700" height="1563"/><figcaption>Supporters of the RSP shout slogans in support of Rabi Lamichhane outside the Supreme Court on Friday evening. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Rabi Lamichhane and his independent party had a meteoric rise — just five months after he launched the RSP, it became the fourth largest party in Parliament after the 22 November elections.But on Friday, Nepal’s Supreme Court ruled that Lamichhane was not a Nepali citizen, which means he has automatically lost his post as Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, his MP seat, as well as the leadership of his party.The Court’s Constitutional Bench decided that although Lamichhane had given up his American citizenship in 2017, he had not finished the process of reapplying for a Nepali citizenship. He is therefore citizenless.Lamichhane, who was in his office at the Home Ministry in Singha Darbar when the verdict was reached, told reporters he accepted the Supreme Court decision.But he gave an enigmatic reaction to reporters' questions about what he would do next: “I am a non-citizen, a nobody. I have no answers.” He then submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal.The rise and fall of Rabi Lamichhane puts his RSP party into considerable uncertainty, since he was the popular founder of the party and it was on his coat-tails that many RSP candidates won the elections, securing 20 seats in Parliament.A weakened RSP will also put the future of the already-shaky 7-party coalition government of Prime Minister Dahal in jeopardy. The coalition is made up of the Maoists and the UML which are the second and third largest parties as well as the RSP, and smaller parties.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1409c7e80680e0d7075jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But the largest party in Parliament, the Nepali Congress (NC) led by Sher Bahadur Deuba is in the opposition, and has been trying to create a rift within the coalition by exploiting the mistrust between Maoist leader Dahal and the UML’s K P Oli.It was Oli who had brought Lamichhane and the RSP into the coalition to muster the numbers for Dahal to form the government. But the Prime Minister seems to be having second thoughts about letting the UML decide who becomes the next President.Lamichane’s exit puts all those deals in doubt. It is not clear if he will appeal the verdict and try to get himself re-elected in a by-election from Chitwan 2.The former anchor shot to fame with his populist tv show in which he tried to redress government wrongs on behalf of citizens in distress, and converted his popularity with clever use of social media into election victory for himself and his party.But the question about his citizenship was always lurking in the background, and many commentators found it unethical that he demanded and got to be Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister to head the very agency that was investigating his citizenship question.The RSP will exist even without Lamichhane, as he will still be the force behind the scenes within it, but it will have lost its captain. How the remaining MPs of the RSP, as well as its ministers in the Cabinet, will now conduct themselves in the secret ballot for presidency in the coming weeks remains open.But that question may be moot if the 7-party coalition itself collapses, and that would happen if the UML decided that it is not getting the presidency to succeed Bidya Devi Bhandari.

The rise and fall of Rabi Lamichhane

Kunda Dixit

Making overseas migration better

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2023020814028/63e39f649c7e80680e0d6fecjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1041"/><figcaption>Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is busy garnering <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/left-led-coalition-upturns-nepal-politics/">support from parties left, right and centre</a> for the 10 January vote of confidence he has to prove in the Federal Parliament. On Wednesday, he met Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Unified Socialist (US) for the first time since he broke away from the Nepali Congress (NC) led coalition.With his Maoist Centre (MC) being only the third biggest party with a mere 32 seats in Parliament, Dahal has had to give away powerful ministries: Finance to Bishnu Paudel of the UML, and Home to Rabi Lamichhane of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP).And with less than a week before the confidence vote, there will be more wheeling and dealing behind the scenes. There is already talk of adding two more deputy prime ministers to specifically appease the far-right Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Janata Samajbadi party (JSP).The Constitution sets a limit of 25 ministers in the Cabinet. But Dahal has to balance the disparate demands from members of his coalition for posts. He will exceed that limit, and for that will have to split some ministries.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-dahal-political-deja-vu/">Oli-Dahal political déjà vu</a>, Santa Gaha MagarDahal may be prime minister, but it is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-dahal-political-deja-vu/">UML's K P Oli who is pulling the strings</a>. As the head of a high-level political committee, Oli will essentially be running a parallel government. And given the past bad blood between Oli and Dahal, there is every possibility of them falling out, and the coalition falling apart.The UML is the second largest party with 78 seats and has shrewdly gained the upper hand by playing the long game by agreeing to give Dahal the first go at premiership while bagging plum political positions for his party in the process.The committee Oli heads is an extension of this power-sharing deal between him and Dahal. The fact that the Prime Minister is the executive head of Nepal but will now have to adhere to a committee on high-level political decisions has essentially turned Dahal into a puppet of Oli’s making.But these power games have long stopped being of interest to the people. It was in fact the very frustration with political manipulation that voted <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls/">independent collective RSP</a> to be the fourth largest party in the 2022 elections.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls/">For whom the bell tolls</a>, Shristi KarkiBut regardless of who is in the coalition or who has an upper hand, the biggest challenge for the new government in 2023 is to save Nepal from an impending economic collapse.As of 4 January, the total expenditure of the Nepal government in the current fiscal year stands at Rs517 billion against its revenue of Rs362 billion. Nepal is unable to support the government’s spending, and herein lies the biggest problem.The additional ministries in the new government and their staff will only add to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-energy-policy-in-2023-and-beyond/">unnecessary expenses in security, infrastructure, salary and other administrative costs</a>. Increased ministries and staff doesn’t guarantee better service delivery either.The appointment of Bishnu Paudel of the UML as  finance minister has made businesses hopeful, but there is only so much he can do to rectify the blunder made by his Maoist predecessor, Janardan Sharma. On Wednesday, Nepal Rastra Bank, acting  a directive from Paudel and Prime Minister Dahal has revised its new guidelines pertaining to current capital loans to spur investment.Nepal’s imports decreased by 20.17% in the last five months compared to the same time period last year owing to the central bank’s ban on luxury items following rapidly declining foreign exchange reserves. This helped increase the reserves but also reduced revenue from imports, which continues to be the government’s biggest source of income.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-year-challenge-to-new-government/"> New year challenge to new government</a>, EditorialIn the meantime, Nepal’s export in the same time period decreased by 34.61% to Rs6.7 trillion and trade deficit by 18.77%. But reduced demand for goods and services can lead to a recession. Year-on-year inflation is also high at 8.08%. In response, banks have  increased interest on loans to reach more than 15% which has discouraged businesses from investing.Moreover, leakage in revenue and lack of economic activities as well as investment in unproductive sectors continue to pose formidable challenges to Nepal’s stagnant economy which is propped by remittance money sent home by Nepalis ioverseas.Those jobs have allowed the government to get away with not providing youth with enough employment opportunities at home. But remittance is an unsustainable source, especially as Nepal needs its workforce at home for agriculture, construction and manufacturing, among others.Nepal needs to reduce its nonessential spending, stop revenue leakage in VAT and others, expedite development projects and promote industries and manufacturing at home. All of this will need to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-year-challenge-to-new-government/">facilitated by reformed policymaking</a>, not just directives.Instead, planners bring about ad-hoc schemes like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-twice-about-bringing-your-mobile-to-nepal/">Mobile Device Management System</a> (MDMS) benefiting select businesses, further adding to the frustration of the common people and making service delivery even more difficult.Sonia Awale

Nepal's political economy

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059759c7e80680e0ce1eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"/><figcaption>Toshima Karki of Rastriya Swatantra Party after her win in Lalitpur-3. Photos: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059799c7e80680e0ce1efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390597c9c7e80680e0ce1f0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366">Antiestablishmentarianism. That new word has entered Nepal’s political lexicon.Kathmandu has elected a lawyer, Lalitpur a doctor, both women under 35 from the independent Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which was formed just five months ago by tv anchor <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-balen-the-rabi-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rabi Lamichhane</a>, who also won from Chitwan.Major municipalities had just voted for independent candidates like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandus-balen-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Balen Shah</a> and Harka Sampang in the May local election when Lamichhane decided to ride the wave. Since then, the outrage of many Nepalis over the country’s non-performing serial politicians seems to have only grown.To be sure, the 30-year Congress-Communist polarisation that destabilised Nepal’s politics is here to stay with Nepali Congress (NC) and the opposition UML set to retain their dominance in the new federal parliament, but independent candidates will be the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-poll-results-signal-upset/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new movers and shakers</a>.The RSP has swept 4 out of 10 Kathmandu seats, other independents have also raked up anti-establishment votes rejecting the likes of Ishwar Pokhrel, Onsari Gharti Magar, Pampha Bhusal, Shankar Pokharel, Kamal Thapa, Upendra Yadav, Ramkumari Jhakri and Rabindra Mishra.The Maoist-Centre fared poorly everywhere, showing that voters are not impressed with their efforts to airbrush war crimes, and their past record. The Unified Socialists were punished for their opportunistic and unprincipled involvement in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/coalition-collision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">5-party coalition</a>. Indeed, the big question now is if the coalition will even get enough seats to form a government.“The general population is not satisfied with mainstream political parties fighting elections through alliances,” says NC leader Minendra Rijal who was not given a ticket for the polls by his party. “The governing coalition is unlikely to fare as well. There was disappointment before, but now people are even more bitter.”Many supporters of the NC and Maoist-Centre appear to have defied party edicts and voted against each other and for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/depending-on-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">independent or rebel candidates</a>. Although the UML is also losing some of its support base to new candidates, it has fared better.“The coalition votes were split and scattered. The losers this time are Maoist Centre, Unified Socialists, and the Madhes-based JSP and LSP,” explains political analyst Puranjan Acharya.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059809c7e80680e0ce1f1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1435" height="855"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Until press time on Thursday, the NC had won 32 seats in Parliament and is leading in 20 constituencies. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/young-turks-not-getting-their-turn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gagan Thapa</a>, who is also NC General Secretary, has publicly declared that he would like to be the next prime minister and replace "those who have had many chances in the past to serve the country”. But that will depend on the fate of NC and the governing coalition in the coming days, it is certain no one party is going to get a majority.The opposition UML is leading in 29 constituencies and has locked in 19 seats. The Maoist Centre is trailing far behind with just 9 seats and leading in only 7 constituencies while Unified Socialist has 7 and so does RSP. RPP has won 4, Loktantrik Samajbadi and Nagarik Unmukti have 2 each while Janata Smajwadi, Rastriya Janamorcha, Janamat and Nepal Kisan Majdur have each won one seat so far. In the far west Tarai, the Nagarik Unmukti party of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ground-zero-kailali-nepal,2535" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Resham Chaudhary</a> and Rastriya Janamorcha are ahead of the race in the Tarai, with more established Madhes-based parties struggling.The UML is doing even better than the NC in seats under the Proportional Representation (PR) mechanism, already raking up 603,708 votes. NC has received 572,698 votes so far. The Unified Socialists, which split from the UML, is not getting even one PR seat.The RSP is also forecast to add many more PR seats, perhaps even becoming the third-largest party ahead of the Maoist Centre in the new federal Parliament. This is a dramatic rise for a party that was formed only six months.Many young and forceful candidates campaigning for good governance, accountability, better service delivery and job-creation have been elected, and there will be more as results come in. The people have spoken, it is now for the antiestablishmentarians to shake things up in Nepal's legislature.NC leader Minendra Rijal told Himal Khabar in an interview: “We must congratulate the RSP, but their road ahead is not easy. People had once voted the Maoists to power by a landslide out of frustration with mainstream parties. We all know what became of them.”He adds: “At the same time, I request my party mates to put a halt on their aspirations for prime ministership for now and instead focus on revamping Nepali Congress which will be in the interest of both the country and the party itself.”<h2>When final results?</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059839c7e80680e0ce1f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="684"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Five days after the general elections, only half of the constituencies have had their votes counted and winners announced. In the lead up to the polls, the Election Commission has estimated all the results for First Past The Post candidates to come in a week’s time, and by 1 December, announce the complete outcome.Authorities had taken 13 days to count the votes following the local election in May, where 34,953 representatives were elected in 6 metropolitan cities, 11 sub-metropolitan cities, 276 municipalities and 460 rural municipalities.The 20 November federal elections, however, had far fewer candidates at 11,543 and also fewer seats to fill in, 275 in the House of Representative and 550 in the Provincial Assembly.Unlike in the local elections, this time one didn’t have to vote for many posts in the ballot. In fact, there were four separate ballot boxes to make it easy for counting," says former Chief Election Commissioner Ayodhi Prasad Yadav. "Which is why we should get the results within a week."Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Kumar Thapaliya agrees: “By 8 December, we plan to publish the complete results including that of the Proportional Representation. If required we will fly the ballot in from the remote parts of the country.”Many Nepalis <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lower-than-usual-turnout-in-nepal-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">did not even bother to vote</a> in the polls, recording the lowest turnout in recent years at only 61%. In Rolpa where the Maoist insurgency began in 1996, turnout was a mere 40% and it was similar in Gorkha from where Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre is contesting.Much of this is because of the people’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dejected-voters-reject-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disillusionment with mainstream parties</a>. But Nepal’s flawed electoral system is also to be blamed. There is no voting by mail despite a 2018 Supreme Court ruling meaning nearly 5 million Nepalis living and working abroad cannot exercise their rights.The excuse for this is that mail voting could open up avenues for fraud, but the real reason is that it will allow for young, educated Nepalis to further undermine the establishment and vote for alternative candidates.The government is also in no hurry to introduce <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/counting-every-vote/">electronic voting machines</a> because the parties don’t trust each other and fear that the other might cheat. Ironic, given that the Maoists got away with tearing up hardcopy ballot papers in Chitwan in 2017.The fact that this is an election of alliances where parties of diametrically opposing ideologies have come together has made it that much more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/voters-cynical-about-electoral-alliances/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">confusing for voters</a>. This could have meant that the large proportion of ballot papers were disqualified, skewing the outcome itself.The good news is that learning from the May local election, the Election Commission has this time made four separate ballot papers for different seats.Even so, Nepal needs a more reliable <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/counting-every-vote/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vote counting system</a> in place which as of now is as archaic as they come. And contrary to what our leaders believe, it would make the counting fairer and faster.The longer counting takes, the higher the temptation for the losing side to disrupt the process, perhaps cheat and even resort to violence. Some of this is happening in constituencies where established leaders are trailing.

The Nepali people have spoken

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059449c7e80680e0ce1dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="684"/><figcaption>Photos: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>As the results of Sunday’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lower-than-usual-turnout-in-nepal-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">federal and provincial elections</a> trickle in, there are signs that Nepal’s voters have made their dissatisfaction with the country’s serial politicians clear.While early results show that the rivalry between the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML that dates back 30 years is still as fierce as ever, Nepal’s politics may be seeing the dawn of a new era.Heavyweights of established parties trail in several important constituencies, the Maoist-Centre and the Unified Socialists have fared poorly everywhere, the royal-right parties have not got the votes they expected, and the five-party governing coalition is in shambles.The reason for this appears to be mainly that many supporters of the NC and Maoist-Centre voted for independents or rebel candidates, rejecting the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/voters-cynical-about-electoral-alliances/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">alliance of convenience</a> between the right and left-wing parties. Although the UML is also losing a lot of votes to new and independent candidates, the opposition UML appears to have been able to better ride out the storm.Rabi Lamichanne’s newly-minted independent Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and other independent candidates are also faring well in many constituencies. Even in places where they are not leading, they show that many voters have abandoned the established parties they used to be loyal to. In many ways, election results so far show a rejection by voters of Nepal’s serial politicians.Indeed, many Nepalis did not even bother to vote with Sunday’s polls recording the lowest turnout in recent years at only 61%. In Rolpa where the Maoist insurgency began in 1996, turnout was a mere 40% and it was similar in Gorkha from where Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre is contesting.It may be too early to call this an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/depending-on-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">‘independent wave’</a> in Nepali politics, but the RSP, other independents and younger leaders from the main parties could be the new kingmakers.“From the figures so far, it is clear that the RSP’s strong results show that voters are fed up of the same old faces,” says political analyst Punarjan Acharya.He adds: “It is also clear that the UML has done better than many expected despite internal party strife and having to do battle with the ice-party alliance.”Overnight, Prakash Man Singh of the NC was declared winner in Kathmandu-1, where he narrowly edged our Rabindra Misha by a mere 218 votes. This was a repeat of 2017 when Mishra, who had contested the same constituency from the alternative Bibeksheel Sajha, had lost to Singh by a narrow margin. This is the fourth win for the scion of one of the NC’s founding leaders, Ganesh Man Singh.In Lalitpur-2, UML candidate Prem Bahadur Maharjan received 15,025 votes to beat Sudin Shakya of the new Hamro Nepali Party and Buddha Ratna Maharjan of Rastriya Swatantra Party. Maharjan appears to have benefited from the new smaller parties splitting the votes.Elsewhere in Bhaktapur-2, Durlav Thapa Chettri of NC and Mahesh Basnet of UML are battling it out, but the former is now leading with nearly 1,000 votes more.In one of the earliest outcomes, NC  had a clean sweep in Mustang with Yogesh Gauchan, 29, was elected as the youngest MP so far. The pair of Namdu Gurung and Bikal Sherchan also won provincial seats in Gandaki.The NC  has also managed a provincial seat from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manang</a> with Munundra Jung Gurung’s win. Independent Rajiv Gurung has locked in another seat from the district having won unopposed earlier.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059469c7e80680e0ce1e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="833" height="589"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059489c7e80680e0ce1e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390594d9c7e80680e0ce1e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390594f9c7e80680e0ce1e3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Till press time on Tuesday morning, the NC had won three provincial seats and was leading in 45 constituencies while UML has one win with its candidates maintaining their lead in 35 others.The Maoist Centre leads in just 11 areas while the Unified Socialists and RSP with leads in 8 constituencies each. The UML is expected to do better than the NC in seats under the Proportional Representation (PR) mechanism.The RSP is also forecast to add many more PR seats, perhaps even as the fourth-largest party in the new federal Parliament. This is a dramatic rise for a party that was formed only six months ago by charismatic former tv anchor Rabi Lamichhane and who was joined by young and forceful candidates campaigning for good governance, accountability, better service delivery and job-creation.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-balen-the-rabi-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rabi Lamichhane</a> himself has fallen behind the NC’s Umesh Shrestha in Chitwan-2, but that could be because the votes so far counted are mainly from coalition strongholds.RSP is, however, leading in Chitwan-2 where Hari Dhakal is ahead of NC’s Biswo Paudel and UML’s Surendra Pandey, the MP from the constituency in 2017. Former House Speaker Onsari Gharti of the Maoist Centre is also trailing behind Rastriya Swatantra Party’s Sobita Gautam in Kathmandu-2.The RSP’s Toshima Karki, a physician, is edging past the UML’s Amrit Khadka to lead in Lalitpur-3. Maoist Centre’s Pampha Bhusal who is also Energy Minister is trailing behind the two.The RSP’s, Shishir Khanal, and education reformer, is far ahead of former police chief Sarbendra Khanal of the UML in Kathmandu-6, and is likely to win. The RSP is also leading in constituencies in Kaski, Jhapa and Rupandehi districts.“The coalition votes were split and scattered. The way I see it, losers this time are Maoist Centre, Unified Socialist, and the Mashes-based JSP and LSP,” says analyst Acharya.He adds that this is the direct result of the Maoist Centre and Unified Socialists (US) seeking more constituencies than their ability. “If the NC had a candidate in 25 more constituencies instead of distributing it to the Maoists and US, it would have ensured a bigger victory for the party,” explains Acharya. “Except now, they have pretty much gifted many of seats to the UML.”Elsewhere, the NC’s General Secretary <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/young-turks-not-getting-their-turn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gagan Thapa</a> looks set to win Kathmandu-4 with UML’s Rajan Bhattarai trailing. Thapa has publicly declared that he would like to be the next prime minister and replace those “who have had many chances in the past to serve the country”.In Kathmandu-7, it looks like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-daughter-also-rises/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manushi Bhattarai</a> will have a hard time catching up with her rivals — despite support from the coalition. Her father, former Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai had swapped his Gurkha constituency with Pushpa Kamal Dahal to win Maoist support for Manushi.The royal-right Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) chair <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajendra Prasad Lingden</a> has taken an initial lead in Jhapa-3 where the UML-backed leader is up against the coalition’s Krishna Prasad Sitaula of NC.Uday Shumsher Rana of NC has taken a lead in Lalitpur-1 slightly edging past Nawaraj Silwal of UML. In Kathmandu-5, it’s the battle of new faces with Hamro Nepal Party’s Suman Sayami just ahead of Biraj Bhakta Shrestha of Rastriya Swatantra Party in the vote counting.Erstwhile separatist <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/ck-raut-madhes-movement,1677" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CK Raut</a> has also taken an initial lead in Saptari-2 with Jayprakash Thakur of Lokatantrik Samjbadi and Upendra Yadav of Janata Samajbadi trailing behind. Maoist Centre on the other hand has also taken an initial lead in Jajarkot with Shakti Basnet ahead of Niraj Acharya of UML.

Nepal poll results signal upset

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234599c7e80680e0c492bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1600" height="1066"/><figcaption>All photos: RABI LAMICHHANE/FACEBOOK</figcaption></figure>While mainstream political leaders in Kathmandu were vacillating on a date for the upcoming provincial and federal elections, one Ram Bahadur Biswokarma was up on a stage of an open stadium in Nepalganj.“May my country be like Rabi Lamichhane,” said Biswokarma in a quivering voice. He was prompted to speak about ‘the country of his imagination’ at a district meeting of the newly launched National Independent Party in Banke.Another participant, Balkrishna Chapagain added: “May my country be what Rabi Sir has envisioned!”Rabi Lamichhane is using this public preference for independent candidates because the incumbents are old and incompetent to his advantage and to catapult his National Independent Party to prominence. His personal brand as a well-recognised face has helped.Lamichhane is only the latest figure cultivating tv popularity for politics in a long list in Nepal, India and other countries. Viz:  Donald Trump, Silvio Berlusconi, Volodymyr Zelensky, Smriti Irani.According to John Street, English professor and author of Mass Media, Politics and Democracy, it is easy to have 'celebrity influence' on politics through television. The reason: compared to any other mass medium, television focuses more on the human aspect of the people -- making the audience in turn feel seen and heard.Lamichhane’s News 24 show  सधा कुरा, जनता संग (Straight Talk with the People) allowed him to generate a massive fan base after it was first aired in 2016. He took on issues of public concern including foreign employment fraud, mismanagement of airport immigration, and corruption. Heated political confrontation in the studio, live rescue of abused workers meant that people were now coming to him in the hope of solving their problems instead of going to the police.Soon enough, Lamichhane was everywhere. At political party events, the crowd lined up for selfies with ‘Rabi Dai’. On Facebook, he has over a million followers which is more than the combined total Sher Bahadur Deuba, K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal have on the platform.But his influence was perhaps most visible when he was taken into custody by Chitwan Police in 2019 for the suicide case of a former employee. Even as an alleged video emerged where Salikram Pudasaini before his death blamed Lamichhane among others for mistreatment, supporters took to the streets calling the incident a smear campaign against the tv presenter.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandus-balen-phenomenon/">Kathmandu’s ‘Balen Phenomenon</a>’, Sarala Gautam<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/6372345c9c7e80680e0c492cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="852">Which might as well be, but Lamichhane’s persona is cultivated by sensational, clickbait journalism. his content is provocative and unapologetic, it incites antagonism against guess. Few anchors on national television have hurled invectives and threats as he has.But when the Press Council sent Lamichhane a warning letter, he wrote back, ‘I’m not a journalist, not yet.’ And yet, he has used the media to propel himself to national popularity. 'I would rather be a cobbler than apply for a press pass,' he added, which the followers supported by waging a cyber jihad.For a celebrity presenter of his status, he is quite fast and loose with facts. His forte is not fact-checking, as exemplified by episodes on Nepal manufacturing its own Covid vaccine and a haunted house in Kathmandu which were baseless, problematic and promoted false narratives.So it is only natural to wonder if his politics will resemble his journalism. After all, a leader has the responsibility to forge a path without crowd pressure, having judged right from wrong.Lamichhane accepts that he lacks leadership experience in Nepal, but claims to have led a large group at his workplace in the US to improve customer service. Lamichhane was formerly a manager at an outlet of the sandwich chain Subway in Baltimore.It was also the Chitwan incident that prompted Lamichhane to join politics, he has said. He had even announced a new reality show titled Leader to find candidates for his new political party but the pandemic intervened.But when he joined Galaxy 4k TV where he was also an investor, one could see a marked difference in his demeanour. He was constrained, and diplomatic with his guests. Perhaps he was just biding his time to join politics.“I had thought of running for mayor of Kathmandu,” Lamichhane was quoted as saying. But the results of the May election where independent candidates were victorious in some of the major cities appears to have emboldened him to launch an entirely new political party.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/">Rise of the independents</a>, Editorial<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234609c7e80680e0c492djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Lamichhane set some ground rules during the campaign. At his party functions, it is not the leaders who speak and make false promises but participants who talk about their expectations, election tickets will be given only to the candidates chosen by ordinary members and the party will refrain from setting up cadre and forming fraternal organisations.But Lamichhane’s unclear stance on federalism and secularism is suspicious to many. To be sure, he was in the news for his anti-republicanism and anti-federal sentiments around the time Rajendra Lingden won the RPP chairmanship.There was also talks of him joining the party prior to local elections in May. Lamichhane’s celebrity status combined with RPP’s stronghold could have been a powerful alliance, but by setting up his own party, it seems he wants to be his own boss and not be led by crowds.We have already seen how Bibeksheel Sajha Party went into decline after its chair also a former media personality Rabindra Mishra demanded feudalism to be scrapped, monarchy restored and a referendum on secularism.Will Lamichhane be able to connect to the people with his politics as he did with his brand of journalism? Will the voters amid their distaste for mainstream parties and the same old leaders seek an alternative as they did with Balen Shah and Harka Sampang in May? We will have to wait till November for answers.So far, the new party has enjoyed a good turnout at its district meetings. But so do gatherings of rural cooperatives. And despite the Lamichhane Craze, his new party lacks candidates and leaders to properly contest the election. Even Lamichhane’s otherwise tv presenter-style provocative oration lacks substance at his political events.“Giving a public speech is much more difficult than speaking on tv where we talk based on facts,” Lamichhane himself admits. But one cannot discount the possibility that the celebrity presenter could cut the vote bank of the establishment and even capture their strongholds.Rabi Lamichhane’s transition to politics is an experiment. Voters will also be experimenting by voting for him. For many, given the current crop of ageing leaders, that is worth a gamble.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/snowbalen/">SNOWBALEN</a>, Shristi KarkiUmesh Shrestha is the editor at NepalFactCheck.org, a joint initiative of the non-profit Center for Media Research Nepal (CMR-Nepal) and the Nepali language blog, MySansar.com

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