<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150232/63fe114c9c7e80680e0da4d3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1104"/><figcaption>Maoist child soldiers in a corn field in the Tarai in 2004. PHOTO: DAMBAR KRISHNA SHRESTHA/A PEOPLE WAR</figcaption></figure>On <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/13-february/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">13 February 1996</a> the Maoist party decided to take a shortcut to power. It abandoned mainstream politics and the democratic system, and instead adopted a path of violence to cleanse Nepal of ‘class enemies’. They did get to power, but at an immense cost to the people.Over 17,000 Nepalis were killed, thousands of children orphaned, women widowed. The 1990 Constitution failed. Violence, hatred, suspicion spread, democracy was threatened.The violence propelled the Maoists to power with a landslide victory in the 2008 Constituent Assembly election, but the path of peaceful politics was not easy for a party that believed political power came out the barrel of a gun.In consecutive elections since 2008, the party got fewer and fewer votes. At the current rate, its political future is bleak at best.The 1990 Constitution empowered Nepalis, and monarchy had to relinquish its absolute powers. The elected legislature was supreme, and it was alive and vibrant. The judiciary and the Supreme Court were many times more dignified than they are today.The Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party in the 1991 general election, while Unified Marxist–Leninist (UML), back then only called Marxist–Leninist, also established itself as a formidable force.The United People’s Front of Nepal (UPFN) chaired by Baburam Bhattarai won only nine seats -- two of them were Krishna Bahadur Mahara and Lila Mani Pokhrel.The UPFN realised that it was going to take a long time to defeat the NC and UML through elections. Inspired by Mao Zedong, they felt Communists must wage an armed struggle.In the intervening years, the party split and a militant faction led by ‘Prachanda’ led the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) to launch the armed struggle on 13 February 1996 against ‘feudal forces’.They were ambitious, and the armed conflict was a quick way to power by playing into contradictions between the NC, UML and the Palace. Police high handedness in cracking down against the rebels drove more people into the Maoist fold.I was the editor of Deshantar  weekly, and from day one had no sympathy for Maoist violence. Many of the 40 demands in the ultimatum Bhattarai presented to Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba on 1 February 1996 were impractical and populist.But the Maoists had found the right time to strike while the iron was hot. The Palace, which had ruled for 30 years, had been forced to give up its absolute power in 1990, and there were hardliners unhappy about it. The UML was not clear about its ideology, either.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/ghosts-of-war/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ghosts of war</a>, Sonia Awale<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150236/63fe11509c7e80680e0da4d4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1111"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Then there was India. While the Maoists played the nationalist card by voicing anti-Indian sentiments in Nepal, across the border they got support and weapons training, the Maoists felt special and they now had to prove themselves.The use of ruthless violence in a society that had not witnessed such bloodshed was a rude shock. The Maoists did not just kill people, they made them suffer and circulated the news widely. Terror was used as a weapon to terrify people.I remember one case in Sindhuli, where they accused a man of exploitation and killed him by crushing his knees with boulders. Such brutality worked because it had a multiplier effect in instilling fear. They robbed banks which increased their resource base.Their main target was the NC, especially its grassroots leaders. They initially did not harm the UML, which they regarded as fraternal Communists. This gave Maoists more access, since the UML was leading many local VDCs.The 1997 by-election also benefited the Maoists since it was a hung Parliament and the NC and UML got Surya Bahadur Thapa and Lokendra Chanda Thapa of the rightwing RPP to take turns being prime minister, and gave people the feeling nothing had changed.But NC won the majority in the 1999 election, which was a major setback for the Maoists. Girija Prasad Koirala, a staunch anti-Communist, became Prime Minister. By this point, the Maoists had started attacking the UML too, because of their local support.The Maoist tactics were straight out of Mao’s Red Book: start by capturing remote parts of the country, and cut them off. They extorted villagers and raised levies, and those who did not pay were made examples of: either killed, tortured or publicly humiliated.One of the most tragic examples of this was the case of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6369#.Y-XIii8w1KM" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Muktinath Adhikari</a>, a teacher from Lamjung who was executed in 2002 by the Maoists. In Okhaldhunga, where I come from, another teacher was dragged around the village and tortured until he died, and his body was hung from a tree next to his school.In another case, bank staff transporting money were looted. I wrote an editorial in Deshantar saying this was not a revolution but daylight robbery. In response, Janadesh, a mouthpiece of the Maoists, carried an interview with Baburam Bhattarai in which he said I should be buried alive in the same hole dug up to bury Girija Prasad Koirala.Later, as editor of Himal Khabarpatrika, we were clear about our support for democracy, non-violence and pluralism. And we never used the word ‘terrorist’ to describe the Maoists.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150236/63fe11549c7e80680e0da4d5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="591" height="800"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>When the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/the-turning-point-dunai-17-years-later,3980" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Maoists attacked Dunai</a> in 2000, the first raid on a district capital, Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of Kantipur, chartered a helicopter to the site before even the state could do a proper survey. The next morning, pictures and testimonials of terrified villagers made it to the front pages in Kathmandu.This became a trend. The attack on Naumule in 2002, and images of piles of dead bodies got similar coverage. I also used to assign photographers who were going with the dailies. But we were still not getting the real story, we were just counting the bodies. We felt we needed more independent reports, not propaganda from both sides.For example, we bought 7 photographs of the Dunai attack in which it was clear that the Maoists were using child soldiers. The young boy was carrying a light machine gun. After it was published, the Maoists for the first time were defensive before the international community. They had previously denied ever recruiting children.But we needed to do more, and especially to show how the conflict was affecting ordinary people. So we kept up with as much field reporting as possible when the Maoist attacks escalated. Other media were also doing in-depth coverage from the war zones.The Maoists then started countering this with their own perspective in the same newspapers. They sponsored trips for journalists to their ‘base areas’. After the Royal Nepal Army entered the war in 2002, it started doing the same.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150236/63fe11589c7e80680e0da4d6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1236" height="829"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In 2004, the Maoists had taken a group of journalists to one of their mass meetings. The news and photographs were published in all major dailies, they all said 15,000 people had come to listen to the Maoist leaders.Because we were a fortnightly magazine, we had a few more days to verify, so we went with 10,000. That evening before the magazine went to press, the reporter asked me to change it back to 15,000 because of the fear of repercussions from the Maoists. We went with 15,000, but after that we stopped accepting conducted tours.By the peak of the war in 2000, the Maoist ambition was to oust both the NC and UML and ally with the Palace such that the king would head Narayanhiti and the Maoists Singha Darbar. This in turn heightened the ambition of the Palace, and its direct impact was on its reluctance to deploy the Army against the Maoists despite Girija Prasad Koirala pushing for it.Koirala and other leaders asked the palace to mobilise the Army, but the palace would not budge. Nepal Police had only 25,000 personnel armed with 303 S. They were no match for the politically motivated and battle-hardened guerrillas.But as the conflict escalated, the political parties were unable to circumvent the Constitutional provision that required the king to mobilise the army, and set up the Armed Police Force (AFP). The Maoists continued their offensive, and attacked the AFP, even killing its first chief Krishna Mohan Shrestha. Yet, the Army would still not intervene or even equip the AFP with proper weaponry.No one knows how things would have turned out if the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18246" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Royal Massacre of 2001</a> had not taken place, and the entire family of King Birendra wiped out. In the beginning, King Gyanendra continued the same policy, but then in 2002 he went a step further, declared political parties incapable, and took absolute power.The Maoists were encouraged by this move, it brought them closer to their power-sharing deal with the Palace by excluding the democratic parties. The NC split over the decision to call a state emergency, and the UML was also divided.Through all this, New Delhi still supported the monarchy, which gave Gyanendra the confidence to consolidate his authoritarian moves. But the Europeans and Americans entered into the picture, and given the strategic value of Nepal, saw the India-monarchy tie-up to their detriment. So when the West showed its hand, India backed off, and that was the downfall of Nepal’s monarchy as well.The Maoists could not take over the country with the force of arms, which was why there was a ceasefire in 2006. The insurgency did make Nepalis more aware of their rights, and the Maoists provided a platform for suppressed groups who were easy recruits. Doors did open for women, Dalits and excluded ethnicities, but in a real sense class, caste and ethnic  divisions still exist.In every other sense, the conflict ravaged Nepal and its people. It destroyed dreams and lives, it set back development. We would have achieved better results and sooner with peaceful democratic evolution.After the 1990 People’s Movement, Nepal’s economy grew and there had been real hope for the future. Local elections had started to bring up accountable leaders. If this had been allowed to continue, Nepal would have been a different (and better) place today. The Comprehensive Peace Accord in 2006 was not an agreement, but a compromise.But perhaps the biggest impact of the conflict was on the politics that followed. Today, Parliament is a farce, the Supreme Court has no dignity, and there is no real federalism. The younger generation is growing up with no knowledge of the Maoist conflict. Impunity is rife because those who committed atrocities have gotten away with it. As a society, we have become more intolerant.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/transitional-injustice-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Transitional justice</a> is now synonymous with hypocrisy. The commissions mandated with delivering it have been taken over by politicians. The Maoist conflict has eroded not just democratic institutions, but the state itself. We must not forget to remember what the war did to Nepal and its people.In the last 30 years we have made dramatic progress in some areas, but did we need a Maoist conflict for that?It is easier to look at the positive aspects, and move on from painful memories. Ask the survivors and the relatives of the victims. If we must say there were some achievements of ten years of war, then we must also admit that there were bigger losses that are still being felt.Rajendra Dahal is the former editor of Deshantar and Himal Khabarpatrika, and is now editor of Shikshak magazine.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-unpunished-war-crimes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal's unpunished war crimes</a>, Sabita Adhikari

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All is fair in war (and peace)

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111414110/63723c439c7e80680e0c960cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>On Sunday in Gorkha, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, flanked by Narayan Kaji Shrestha and former comrade-in-arms Baburam Bhattarai, led a procession of supporters to file his candidacy for federal election on 20 November.There was pomp and fanfare as Bhattarai, who currently represents the constituency in the House, swapped it for Maoist support for his daughter’s candidacy in Kathmandu.Bhattarai had earlier announced he would not contest elections, saying he was taking a break from being “a lifetime parliamentarian”. So it was ironic that he handed over to another serial parliamentarian whom he had fallen out big time: Dahal.The Maoist leader had previously contested from Kathmandu and Rolpa in 2008, Kathmandu and Siraha in 2013, and Chitwan in 2017. This time, he wanted an ironclad constituency to fulfil his dream of becoming prime minister a third time — and proved once more that there are no permanent friends nor enemies in politics.The 5-party coalition formed to oust former Prime Minister KP Oli following the power struggle between Oli and Dahal ushered in an era of break-up and make-up politics in an election year.The 2022 election has made partners out of once archenemies Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and Pushpa Kamal Dahal, splintered  powerful communist parties, and brought Dahal and Bhattarai back together. And it has led to Nepal’s two primary Madhes-based parties switching allegiances between the coalition government and the opposition a day before the deadline for FPTP registration.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-parties-forge-new-pre-poll-alliances/">Nepal’s parties forge new pre-poll alliances</a>, Shristi KarkiThis is the end of ideology. It is all about power and how to get there. Nepali politics was always a revolving door of same handful of tried, tested and failed elderly men. The revolving door is still turning, and multiple prime ministers are waiting for another stint — party credo, election agenda, or principles be damned.It is a sign of the times that once-progressive alternative politician Rabindra Mishra now has a leadership position within the royalist right RPP, while Kamal Thapa of the Hindu-right RPP-N is set to contest the election in alliance with Communists, under the UML’s election symbol no less.Nepal has been a three-party dictatorship since 2013. Now it is a dictatorship of three old men. Smaller parties aspire to be king-makers too, and want to strike deals with the Nepali Congress, Maoist Centre or the opposition UML.There are no party primaries while selecting election candidates, and the process of selecting tickets is at the arbitrary personal discretion of the three honchos.So, the NC’s Minendra Rijal and the UML’s Bhim Rawal of the UML were refused tickets just because their party leaders treat them as greater threats than candidates from other parties. Swarnim Wagle of the NC was reportedly refused a ticket because the First Lady doesn’t like him.The Proportional Representation system was designed to include the excluded and marginalised. But the list is made up of close allies who needed to be accommodated, cronies and relatives. Only 9% of the candidates for direct elections are women, despite a Constitutional provision that parties have to field 33% females. The proportion of indigenous communities and Dalits is even lower.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111414110/63723c469c7e80680e0c960djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="780" height="345">Nepal’s richest men seem to have decided it is better to use the money that they used to donate to parties to run for elections themselves. The candidate list also included jailed individuals, which the Election Commission eventually rejected, as well as figures tainted with corruption.A total of 2,526 candidates have registered their candidacies for the parliamentary polls, out of which 1,583 are from 57 political parties. Independents make up 37% of candidates for both federal and provincial polls, with some of them being rebel candidates denied tickets by their parties.In all this, there is a silver lining. First-time voters and young Nepalis have begun to take an interest in the political process, mainly because of the rise of the independents. The outcome of this election will be decided whether they actually go to the polling booths on 20 November.As with the independents who won mayoral races in May, young voters seem to think that the only way to clean up Nepali politics is from the inside. But vote banks, block votes by ethnicity and caste still count because the mainstream parties have the organisational structure.An ageing and unprincipled establishment unwilling to hand over to a new generation has made it abundantly clear once more that any attempt to transform Nepal’s political mechanism from inside will be fiercely resisted. But something's got to give.Shristi KarkiRead more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rule-of-the-lawless/">Rule of the lawless</a>, Editorial

Shristi Karki

3-party dictatorship

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413118/63722fef9c7e80680e0c253ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3821" height="2788"/><figcaption>Pushpa Kamal Dahal with Jagat Prakash Nadda, national president of BJP. Photo: JAGAT PRAKASH NADDA/TWITTER</figcaption></figure>Barely days after Pushpa Kamal Dahal met the visiting head of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China, Liu Jianchao in Kathmandu, he was off to New Delhi.The undisputed supremo of Nepal’s Maoists has been known to play all sides before, but this puts his balancing act on a whole new level. It also shows that Nepal’s giant neighbours are engaged in a tug-o-war as the country heads for federal and provincial elections on 18 November.Ever since Nepal was founded as a nation state, the country had to do  a tightrope between British India and the Chinese Empire. Recognising this, Prithvi Narayan Shah famously compared Nepal to a yam ensconced between two boulders, and laid out the doctrine of equidistance.Inspired by Mao Zedong, Dahal took on the mantle of ‘Prachanda’ to wage an armed struggle that killed 17,000 Nepalis. At the time, Dahal paraphrased Nepal’s founding king, to describe the country as a “dynamite between two boulders”.Here is a man who in 1998 declared a ‘tunnel war’ to prepare for an Indian invasion, but who spent eight of the ten war years at a safe house in a New Delhi suburb.After the conflict ended in 2006, Dahal has been prime minister twice. The first time, he had to resign after barely a year in power after overstretching his hand in an unsuccessful bid to sack Nepal Army chief Gen Rookmangud Katuwal in 2009, and replace him with a yes-man.It did not go unnoticed that President Ram Baran Yadav had to force him out after some critical late night intervention from New Delhi.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413118/63722ff39c7e80680e0c253fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="600"><figcaption>Head of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China, Liu Jianchao with Pushpa Kamal Dahal in Kathandu last week.</figcaption></figure>Last week’s visit by Liu Jianchao and Dahal’s sudden air dash to Delhi prove once more that Nepal’s domestic politics is, more than ever, a reflection of regional geopolitics.The Chinese, who had so far been content with letting Nepal languish in New Delhi’s sphere of influence have, since Xi Jinping, been taking a keener interest in micro-managing Kathmandu's power corridors.Beijing’s real worry is not so much about India as it is heightened American activities in Nepal, mainly vis-a-vis Tibet. The active lobbying by the Chinese against the US-supported Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), and lately the scrapped State Partnership Program (SPP) pointed to this.The Chinese have openly expressed their <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/one-party-two-countries/">desire for Nepal’s Communist parties to unite</a>, and actually fulfilled that wish with the merger of the UML and the Maoists into the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) after the alliance’s overwhelming victory in the 2017 election.And when Dahal fell out with prime minister K P Oli and the power struggle threatened the NCP, Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi shuttled between the Oli and Dahal residences in Kathmandu to patch up their differences.As it turned out, not only did the NCP split, but so did the UML, the MCC was ratified, and the ruling coalition in Kathmandu adopted a Indo-Western alignment.This must have unnerved the Mandarins in Beijing, who did not have to send a high level party emissary just to feel the political pulse in Kathmandu. Liu Jianchao's main aim was to reforge Communist unity ahead of November, and do a repeat of 2017.After all, the Maoists, UML and the Unified Socialists have been trying to suss things out through emissaries. So much so that it has sent off tremors within Nepali Congress (NC), where an anti-Deuba faction led by Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Thapa have been trying to get the party to contest elections on its own.Ironically, Deuba’s own position within his party is now dependent on the coalition staying intact. This in turn has made the NC almost a junior partner in the coalition, with Dahal asserting himself as heir apparent.In a meaningful <a href="https://ekantipur.com/Interview/2022/07/18/165810525150588451.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">interview in Delhi with Kantipur</a>, Dahal talked about meeting his ‘old friend’ in India’s intelligence apparatus who is Prime Minister Modi's National Security Adviser, and hinted that he had blessings on a rotational prime ministership with Deuba — just as he had with Oli.The danger in all this dalliance is that closer ties with India now means closer party-to-party ties with the BJP, and the prospect for instability in the Nepali polity that it entails.All this comes as the Deuba-led coalition completes one year of misrule and miscues. It has outdone the K P Oli administration in pushing through ordinance after ordinance to amend constitutional provisions, has drafted a bill to grant further immunity from prosecution for war crimes among the Maoist militia and the government.With these tectonic forces at play, the ruling class appears unable and incapable of arresting looming economic collapse.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-mixed-report-card/">Deuba's mixed report card</a>, Editorial

Geopolitical tug-o-war over Nepal

<figure><img width="1536" height="2048" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721ca19c7e80680e0bd49fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Thirty years after the iconic photograph of her during the first People’s Movement of 1990, Durga Thapa returned to the abandoned and dusty Khula Manch this week to mark the occasion. Photos: MIN BAJRACHARYA</figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/one-moment-30-years-ago-today/">Min Bajracharya</a> was just 18 then. He was close to Nepali Congress democracy warrior Ganesh Man Singh, and was photographing the People’s Movement of 1990 at the Khula Manch in Kathmandu, when he took what is now the famous photograph of the protest with his Nikon F-2 and a 105mm lens.A young woman leaps above the mainly-male demonstrators sitting and waiting to hear the pro-democracy leaders at the open theatre. Her hands and fingers make V-signs above her head. Her face is defiant, fervent. Her cry of “Long live democracy” is audible over the noise, as the men look on.Durga Thapa was a student, and was a fiery defender of democracy. But she did not know that Bajracharya had just taken a photograph that would make her famous. That came much later. <figure><img width="1496" height="1146" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721ca49c7e80680e0bd4a0jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Durga Thapa in 1990 during the People’s Movements.</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="938" height="832" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721ca89c7e80680e0bd4a1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Durga Thapa again in 2006 during the People’s Movements.</figcaption></figure>It was the morning of 9 April 1990, the month-long protests had climaxed with King Birendra restoring multi-party democracy. A new constitution a year later turned Nepal from an absolute into a constitutional monarchy.There was a victory rally at the Khula Manch on what has come to be known as ‘Chait 17. Formerly underground leaders like Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, Ganesh Man Singh and Man Mohan Adhikari were on stage. As Bhattarai gave a rousing speech, Bajracharya noticed the young student spring up from the crowd. He turned his camera away from the podium to her and took a couple of photographs. Min Bajracharya stored Durga Thapa’s images in his negative cabinet, and it was only two years later that it made it to the cover of the book, Dawn of Democracy published by the Human Rights Protection Forum. Since then the photo has been used in t-shirts, banners and even coffee mugs – most of it, Bajracharya rues, without permission or payment.As a staff photographer for Himal Khabarpatrika and Nepali Times Min Bajracharya went on to document the war, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/46">royal massacre of 2001</a> and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/235">King Gyanendra’s coup</a>.In 2006, when the Second People’s Movement against Gyanendra gathered strength in the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=11741#.Xo6ezS8w0Wo">Kathmandu Spring</a>, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=11694#.YlPvYnhBypo">Nepali Times asked Bajracharya if he could track down Durga Thapa</a>.  And there she was: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14212#.YlPva3hBypo">back on the streets</a>, still shouting “Long live democracy” outside Singha Darbar. Sixteen years after he took her picture, he <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=11694#.Xo6cii8w0Wo">took another photograph of Durga Thapa</a>, smeared in vermilion and leading a pro-democracy rally. Thapa was now 38, had a son, and was a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14212#.Xo6cIS8w0Wo">civil servant</a>.This year, 30 years after the first photo was taken, Bajracharya was once more curious to see where Durga Thapa was. Now 53, she is now the assistant Chief District Officer of Rasuwa. Her life has paralleled the trajectory of democracy in this country.This week, Min Bajracharya brought Durga Thapa to the Khula Manch which has been mired in controversy after Kathmandu Metropolitan City tried to turn it into a parking lot, and although it is abandoned, it is still one of the few open spaces left in Kathmandu. <figure><img width="462" height="490" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721cab9c7e80680e0bd4a2jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Min Bajracharya. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>“I entered government service to serve the people as efficiently and honestly as possible, after all that is why had to keep fighting for democracy,” Thapa says.Inspired by Bajracharya’s famous picture of his mother, Durga Thapa’s son, Abhigya Thapa, 27, has also become a successful, award-winning travel photographer.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/one-moment-30-years-ago-today/">One moment 30 years ago today</a>, Mukesh Pokhrel

Returning to the cradle of democracy

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141136/636cfe6b9c7e80680e0a0c3ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1260" height="686"/>Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba took office over a month ago, but aside from six ministers he has not been able to set up a full Cabinet yet because of the need to balance the demands of coalition partners.This is despite the need to have all hands on deck to tackle the health and economic emergency caused by the Covid-19 crisis. The delay cannot just be attributed to the recently registered CPN (United Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal whose critical dissident votes forced the K P Oli government to step down in July and paved the way for Deuba to become prime minister for the fifth time.It appears that the delay has more to do with the competing g demands within other members of the five-party alliance, including Deuba’s own Nepali Congress, the Maoist Centre and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP).Both Prime Minister Deuba and CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal had claimed that the Cabinet would be expanded as soon as CPN-UML’s senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal’s new party (United Socialist) was officially registered. Yet, even after being recognised by the Election Commission on August 25, Cabinet expansion has not happened.Deuba has not been able to decide the next ministers from his own party, and because of the upcoming party general convention he wants to reward loyalists. So far he has appointed his trusted aides Bal Krishna Khand as Home Minister, Gyanendra Bahadur Karki as Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs, and Umesh Shrestha as Minister of State for Health.Deuba has announced his own candidacy for NC resident in the party’s next general convention which is scheduled for November. Deuba may be trying to decide on distributing ministerial portfolios to either reward loyal party members or buy the loyalty of dissidents.So far, Deuba wants to appoint only those who have expressed their support for his re-election with ministerships. But he may find that he will have to compromise and take in key figures from the Bimalendra Nidhi and Ram Chandra Poudel factions so they will vote for his party presidency.Another reason for the delay comes from the Maoist Center. Currently, former guerrilla commander Janardan Sharma has been appointed Finance Minister and Pampha Bhusal has been made the Energy, Water Resources, and Irrigation minister. Both are close to party president Pushpa Kamal Dahal.Dahal himself publicly admitted last month that he was finding it difficult to select from his 49 Maoist MPs aspirants for ministerships. He said: “At most, we will be given only 7 portfolios. It has now become common practice to criticise the party if one is not made minister. I am under immense stress from all the demands. I wish I was able to make all 49 members ministers.”Within the Maoist Centre, voices have been raised that leaders from the Ekta Kendra and the CPN (United Socialist), who have been with the Maoists since the war and integrated with the Maoists after the peace process, should be included in the government.Even the JSP has split, and not been able to finalise the names of those who will join the government. Unable to strike a Mountain-Tarai balance, the Rastriya Janata Party led by Mahanta Thakur has been unable to finalise names either. The other member of the alliance, Rastriya Janamorcha, which has only one MP in Parliament has already announced that it will not participate in the government.Deuba has not forgotten the role Madhav Nepal’s CPN (United played in getting him to office and apparently wants to reward it with 5-7 portfolios. And it could be that Nepal will also need time to decide on a list of ministers to give Deuba.  Translated by Aryan Sitaula from the Nepali language original in Himal Khabar: <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125640" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125640&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1630376494617000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHzH53P7H76MS467An-uvZMV9i_UQ">https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125640</a>

What is delaying Nepal cabinet expansion?

Everything about living in Nepal these days is smart, and getting smarter. When he got elected, Kathmandu's Mayor declared that he could make the capital a ‘smart city’. It may not seem like it to a casual observer, but he is making progress:Smart politicsThe reason lockdowns are so easy to enforce in Kathmandu is because we have been trained well to be locked up. First we had 30 years of Panchayat, then the dawn of democracy ushered in the glorious era of political shutdowns, when there were so many bands that we needed a website to just keep track of them. The way it worked was that if a disgruntled political party wanted to show a gruntled party who was boss, it incinerated a couple of taxis on the Ring Road early in the morning. After that, the public willingly stayed home in support of this ingenious non-violent form of civil disobedience. Unfortunately, after the new constitution, most political parties had been too lazy to organise lockdowns. But there is hope, the 5-party Alliance announced this week that Kathmandu will be a smart city again with daily street protests.Smart trashBy closing down the Sisdole Landfill site from time to time, our over-smart city encourages a circular economy and lets trash pile up on roadsides, allowing street fauna to forage on it. What remains decays organically, producing compost that recycles valuable nutrients back into the soil, and protects our urban biodiversity.Smart Alec PMAside from a smart mayor, we also have a Smarty Pants PM. People call him Prime Minister Wily, or the Old Fox, but he should call himself the Old Mule. From one mule to another, I must say this guy has outdone donkeyhood in general and asses in particular. Every time it looks like this is the end, he pulls another bunny out of his hat. How many hares does he have up his hair, anyway? The government is now down to a Gang of Five, so the only way for the opposition Gang of Four to keep up the pressure while the ball is in the Supreme Commander’s Court is to declare a nationwide smart shutdown during this smart lockdown.Street smartOne way to protect the city’s smartness is to make sure the streets are permanently dug up. This is deliberate. There is no better way to make people street smart, keep them on their toes, alert, bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, than to lay booby traps along public thoroughfares. This also prepares for next year’s tourism by preserving the Valley’s rustic charm. Tourists don’t come to Kathmandu to see smooth asphalt roads and functioning traffic lights, they can do that in Singapore.Smart sewerAside from roads, what gives this smart city its distinctive ambience and unique aroma is the Bagmuddy River. Nepal’s capital may have been declared open-defecation free, but it still has a Sewage Canal running past our religious sites. When Nepalis exclaim “Holy shit!” they mean it literally.

The Ass

Smartass lockdown

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92139c7e80680e06f12ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="694"/><figcaption>Illustration: Diwakar Chettri</figcaption></figure>If anyone had wanted to dismantle Nepal’s Communist movement, no one would have been able to do a better job than Prime Minister K P Oli of the Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) party. How did that happen? It may be necessary to recap the story so far.Halfway through his term, after the constitutional ban on voting a government out of office expired last year, Oli’s arch-rival within the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Pushpa Kamal Dahal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-communists-on-verge-of-split-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-communists-on-verge-of-split-again/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGQW8YHsCRwMrIBjRqyMdwNXEmgjw">started trying to unseat him</a> either from the government or party, and then from both.Disgruntled by Oli’s moves to sideline them, Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/let-them-eat-cake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/let-them-eat-cake/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH6eQuDm2Pbgt9hUb7WOuFLGvmpmw">sided with Dahal.</a> Increasingly isolated, and getting wind of a no-confidence vote, Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHsDEWGjDIxOjTlO8qURjT77_0OUA">dissolved the Lower House</a> on 20 December. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEwvmBpTOZAsCsPIFmPxHZirJeKtg">Supreme Court restored it</a> two months later, but also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/no-winners-in-latest-nepal-political-twist/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/no-winners-in-latest-nepal-political-twist/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEOrbdAF9mzMj7KufsDiRN1o2NJnQ">disbanded the NCP</a>. By itself the UML did not have enough seats to stay in government.Instead of wooing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEvfue0MH3lJ1lNP99vmlHXhU7Osw">Nepal-Khanal faction </a>with positions in the UML central committee and cabinet, Oli drove them even deeper into an opposition alliance of Dahal’s Maoist Centre (MC) and the Nepali Congress.What followed was the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFVkw8yFiE1JiwClvWfAFAEY1n7Tw">theatrics of the night of 21-22 May</a>, when Oli staked a claim of majority in the House of Representatives that he had himself just dissolved to challenge the bid by the NC-MC led coalition to make Sher Bahadur Deuba prime minister for the fourth time. President Bhandari then obliged by rejecting both claims, and announcing fresh elections for November.Deuba then led a group of 146 MPs to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-ball-now-in-nepals-supreme-court/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-ball-now-in-nepals-supreme-court/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQnu-1oNVcbLrv7b55lRv2vgSlOg">file a writ in the Supreme Court</a> on 24 May against the second House dissolution and his appointment as prime minister. For good measure,  another 29 petitions were also filed against PM Oli and President Bhandari.For the past fortnight, the Supreme Court had been bogged down in a debate about the composition of the Constitutional Bench. Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana was forced to give into pressure to drop two justices that the petitioners felt were tainted by their verdict disbanding the NCP in February, and replace them in the Bench with justices based on seniority.The Attorney General then raised an objection about two new justices, questioning their impartiality. However, on Wednesday Justice Ishwar Khatiwada said enough is enough, and there was no point wasting any more time on debating the composition of the Bench.The Court then asked the Prime Minister’s Office, Prime Minister Oli, President Bhandari and her office, as well as Parliament secretariat to show cause for the dissolution of the House within seven days. It also announced a strict 32-hour timetable for eight days of hearings beginning on 23 June, allocating specific dates and durations for lawyers from both sides, as well as for the amicus curie. The interim decision is expected on 4 July.The Supreme Court has had to step in where the leaders, political parties and their factions, and Parliament could not find a way out of the differences. As a result, K P Oli’s actions first led to the destruction of the NCP, which was formed in 2018 after the election victory of the UML and Maoist Centre. In doing so, Oli took away some veteran war-era Maoist commanders like Ram Bahadur Thapa with him.With Dahal out of the way, Oli’s sights were then aimed at ousting Nepal. This means the Unified Marxist-Lenisists are no longer unified. But even the Nepal faction is divided between those who want to keep striving for party unity and another that wants to form a new party.Oli’s power games even <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHVM_R7YBWNjV5xnocaqANqrFTznw">split the JSP</a> right down the middle. The Mahanta Thakur-led faction has now joined the government with 10 ministers, while the Upendra Yadav-Baburam Bhattarai group has stayed out. Oli replaced his trusted Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali with the untested Raghubir Mahaseth, someone he had sacked for incompetence just last year as Physical Infrastructure Minister.The move is probably an attempt to cash in on Mahaseth’s reputed war-chest, appeal to the Madhes, and since he is from the UML, keep a check on deputy prime minister Rajendra Mahato within the Cabinet. Some have even seen the appointment as Oli trying to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-two-indias/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-two-indias/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHLoy51qsVw6b4oa-w-u8z02HHpWA">appease the BJP in India.</a>The reshuffle highlighted the government’s inability to focus attention on protecting Nepalis with vaccines while the virus is ravaging the countryside, and addressing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/jabs-for-jobs/">loss of jobs</a> during the lockdown. In fact, there have been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/3-health-ministers-in-1-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/3-health-ministers-in-1-year/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFcWfXpiWylV3eXtnyn6ZZlsXzqQQ">three health ministers</a> since the pandemic began, and five since Prime Minister Oli took office in 2018.It now looks likely that the Supreme Court will reinstate the House of Representatives again, and if that happens there will soon be another government.When K P Oli was in jail during the Panchayat, he was an avid chess player and cell-mate Puranjan Acharya remembers him as being a sore loser. Oli needs to hold on to power, and for that he has Plan B: to try to keep the UML intact so that even if the House is reinstated he can still cobble together a majority.However, that plan may have been thwarted this week by the Nepal faction rejecting Oli’s olive branch and conditional offer for rapprochement. This leaves things pretty much up in the air till the Supreme Court gives its decision in three weeks.Some young Turks in the UML have not given up on keeping the UML united, and for this they need to get Oli and Nepal to patch up. The trouble is that the distrust between the two is so deep that they would both rather partner with leaders from another party than their own.The UML’s Yogesh Bhattarai blames both Oli and Nepal for their inability to reconcile differences: “Comrade K P Oli is not ready to work with Comrade Madhav Nepal and Comrade Jhalnath Khanal from his own party, but is willing to share power with Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato … and Comrade Nepal is unwilling to work with Comrade K P Oli, but is happy to form a coalition with Sher Bahadur Deuba, Prachanda and Upendra Yadav.”Bhattarai asks on social media: “Who, why and for what is this thing dragging on? The root of the problem is that the two leaders cannot get along. To save party unity, they need to find common understanding.”

Kunda Dixit

Going down with the ship

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91cc9c7e80680e06f10fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="428"/>One thing we cannot complain about is that, for once, the world is not ignoring a humanitarian disaster in Nepal. They have even named a variant after us.Worried about the Delta strain spreading in his country, a UK official blamed the ‘Nepal variant’ for spoiling summer holiday plans for many Brits. The tabloid press, but even the BBC, dutifully headlined this, despite a WHO denial about a Nepali strain. But the damage was done. Just google ‘Nepal variant’ now.What the publicity has done is pushed the world to rush oxygen and medical supplies to Nepal. All help is useful in a crisis like this, but much of the aid being flown in contains items that Nepal is already buying in bulk in China.While there was a dire shortage of oxygen cylinders three weeks ago that led to loss of lives, the nature of the emergency has changed. Nepal’s 29 oxygen factories are now working at 100% capacity producing only medical oxygen, and soon there will be a surplus. The problem is not supply, but logistics and equitable distribution.What we really need are vaccines — most urgently for the 1.4 million Nepalis above 65 who got their first dose of Covishield AstraZeneca three months ago, and are now past the default date for their second after India banned its export.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91cf9c7e80680e06f110jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="318"><figcaption>India's total vaccine exports before it was stopped in March.</figcaption></figure>The lockdown should have bought us time for a mass vaccination drive, but once more we squandered two months shutting people in their homes. The restrictions did bring down the daily caseload, but infections are likely to spike again once mobility increases, just like last year.Instead of #NepalVariant trending on Twitter, we need #NepalVaccines to go viral. To be sure, the United States has pledged 80 million surplus doses, but only 7 million of that in the first phase is for the whole of South and Southeast Asia with a population of 1.5 billion. Supply bottlenecks mean the first shipments will not include AstraZeneca.Europe has a stockpile of AstraZeneca and more on order that are not going to be used, either because of slow uptake or because of fears of clots. In France, tens of thousands of doses have gone to waste. Norway and Denmark are not using  AstraZeneca anymore, and some of this may be channeled to Europe’s pledge to donate 100 million doses this year, sell 1.3 billion doses at cost price to low and middle-income countries, and donate another 1.3 billion doses in 2022, mostly through COVAX.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week announced a $50 billion plan to vaccinate 40% of the world population within 2021, and 60% by mid-2022. This is all encouraging news if it happens, but the long and short of it is that for Nepalis, neither the second doses nor vaccines for the larger population are getting here any time soon.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91d19c7e80680e06f111jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="282"><figcaption>Number of patients in ICU and ventilators in Nepal in May.</figcaption></figure>Even Andrew Pollard of Oxford University, an old Nepal hand, and one of the developers of the AstraZeneca vaccine says he feels helpless. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqHFh4Fbf8IcsJ4g-XnTG5qP1SzA">He wrote in a column</a> in this paper recently: ‘I felt so proud when I saw the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE6-2fepjLEOU19PSLjzWqAvKa05A">first doses of the Oxford vaccine being administered in Kathmandu</a>, and the hope that it brought to Nepalis, but I am now saddened to hear that further supply is delayed.’On Tuesday, the 60-65 age group in Kathmandu Valley, and 62-65 outside started being vaccinated with the 1 million extra doses of Sinopharm VeroCell donated by China. However, we need to get jabs to at least 19 million Nepali arms in the next few months to reduce the danger of a pre-Dasain surge, not to mention younger cohorts who are likely to be more vulnerable to a predicted third wave. Negotiations with Sinopharm to procure another 2 million doses are bogged down over a confidentiality clause in the contract.The only ‘Nepali variants’ we should be worried about are the country’s feckless and mutated politicians. Prime Minister Oli has replaced five Health Ministers since 2018, three of them since the pandemic began.Since vaccines are unlikely soon, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFBpfK-x_4CespExs5Gd3dW9_6oMA">public health experts have warned</a> us repeatedly that even after the lockdown is eased, and even if some people are vaccinated, the only way to prevent future surges is through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/keep-wearing-masks-after-the-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/keep-wearing-masks-after-the-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFrVgv5oLBXzAWQyNuTw7uc_DdWQA">proper masks and physical distancing</a>.A recent <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/covid-19-crisis-india-draws-lessons-from-bangladesh-s-mask-study-121051401341_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/covid-19-crisis-india-draws-lessons-from-bangladesh-s-mask-study-121051401341_1.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHgAojjRlhejojvnimKSVT8uOMRbA">Yale study in Bangladesh</a> involving over 300,000 people showed that four simple actions led to a 10-time increase in mask wearing. Their <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EUhdri6CST9uzw_myffNmyUVPt8_UMsM75NOt5Q-54o/edit" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EUhdri6CST9uzw_myffNmyUVPt8_UMsM75NOt5Q-54o/edit&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGV_AM4_ATLpwI_uAwFRandfzstdA">four-fold path</a> includes: 1. Giving away free masks, 2. Spread information about how to wear them properly, 3. Get celebrities to promote mask-wearing, 4. Enforce mask-wearing through persuasion and punishment.Official figures <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH48dysJncU5jxSSYZYwIF57tBcRw">grossly underestimate</a> the spread and fatality from Covid-19 in Nepal. A projection by the <a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/nepal?view=daily-deaths&amp;tab=trend" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://covid19.healthdata.org/nepal?view%3Ddaily-deaths%26tab%3Dtrend&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH24lI1y0n0i0mWO_OHRW4ckwQBxA">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)</a> of the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle shows that on 31 May when the government reported 96 deaths from Covid-19, the actual number was closer to 363.IHME calculations also show that 1,000 fewer Nepalis will die by 1 September if 95% of people wore masks while outdoors. The government is hinting that the lockdown rules will be eased on 14 June. Since vaccines are still a long way off, our only protection is masks and minimising movement.

Nepal goes viral

<img width="640" height="426" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011110/636ccc849c7e80680e08bc29jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) has by now squandered the overwhelming mandate it got in the 2017 elections to govern for five years, and its future now rests on an impending decision by the Supreme Court.While the verdict could go either way, what is certain is that one of the two NCP factions is going to lose out.  Whether it will be the establishment faction led by Prime Minister K P Oli or the breakaway group headed by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, will be decided in the upcoming weeks. Oli’s group is in  government and says it is preparing for snap elections in April-May, while Dahal’s supporters are in the streets demanding a reinstatement of the Lower House.Both are trying to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/olis-tit-for-tat-show-of-force/">demonstrate their popular support</a> by renting <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/">bigger and bigger crowds</a>, and thus influence the Supreme Court, and the Elections Commission which has to decide which faction gets the party’s Sun symbol and name. Both sides are sanguine that the Supreme Court and the Elections Commission will rule in their favour. Nepal’s current political crisis is not a result of any great ideological disagreement, but a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/">personal power struggle</a> between Oli and Dahal after NCP unity. This may be why rallies by both Oli and Dahal have been packed with cadre and people bused in from the districts, and without much spontaneous popular participation so far.Whichever way the Supreme Court verdict goes, Nepal’s politics will be in turmoil as the power centres and politicians jockey for supremacy, even as regional geopolitics influence the outcome. Beijing has been openly lobbying against an NCP split, while the Indo-American alliance would like to see Nepal’s communists divided and weakened.“Even if the House is reinstated, a new struggle for supremacy will begin within the party to form an election government,” predicts political commentator Shyam Shrestha. “It will not be as easy as before when the NCP had a two-thirds majority, and the permutations and combinations of coalition-building will be wide open.”If the House is restored, Shrestha sees the Dahal faction forming a government in coalition with the Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal. But if the Court rules in favour of the dissolution, he sees instability and chaos.Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali admits that there is some uncertainty because of the wait for the Supreme Court decision. He says, “But once it rules in favour of dissolution, that will steer the country’s mood towards elections. The conditions are right for polls, the Nepali Congress, Janata Samajbadi Party and smaller parties are all ready, there are no major security issues, and the Election Commission is getting ready. So whoever gets a majority will govern the country. The alternative will be a return to unstable coalition politics of the past.” <img width="1371" height="914" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011110/636ccc889c7e80680e08bc2ajpeg.jpg" alt="">However, the political futures of Oli and Dahal will also rest on the Supreme Court’s decision on the 13 writ petitions that are currently being heard. Oli’s ambitions will be derailed if the House is reinstated, while Dahal and his supporters will suffer a setback if it is not. So much rests on the Court’s decision that it has become a prestige issue for both sides, which could be why Dahal has been using threatening language towards the Election Commission and the Supreme Court, hinting that it is being influenced by Baluwatar.Some in the NCP see the possibility of the elections actually bringing the two factions of the NCP closer, but Central Committee member Beduram Bhusal disagrees. “There is just too much bad blood. For now, I see zero percentage possibility of reunification.”In case the House is restored, the choice for the Dahal faction is to go for election or agitation. However, it may not be so easy for Dahal and his supporters to “unleash a hurricane” as he has threatened.Bhusal, however, says his party has not planned for an elections scenario. “Even if the house is not restored, there will not be any elections. Why plan for something that will not happen?” says the Dahal loyalist.For Oli, a Court decision to restore the House is equally fraught. He will either have to resign, or face a no confidence vote in Parliament.

A Kathmandu Spring

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca7c9c7e80680e08bb6djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1942" height="1294"/><figcaption>Prime Minister KP Oli addresses his supporters in Darbar Marg.</figcaption></figure>The tit-for-tat show of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/">force between rival factions</a> of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) continued on Friday with Prime Minister K P Oli choosing the symbolic venue of the former royal palace in Kathmandu to address thousands of his supporters.Despite overcast skies, a chilly wind and the threat of rain, Oli and his loyalists sat on an elaborate stage erected at the gates of the Narayanhiti Palace, and facing the T-intersection of the tree-lined Darbar Marg.“We thought we would have stability after winning the 2017 elections, but there was instability within the party,” Oli said. “However, we will not let their effort to sabotage Nepal’s march to prosperity succeed.”He boasted that this was the biggest rally ever held in Kathmandu, and without naming names, he said it took place despite the rival faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal trying to stop people from attending by enforcing a national shutdown on Thursday.Oli poured scorn at those who had predicted that he would use the occasion to declare that Nepal’s Hindu monarchy be restored. He said: “Why would someone who has fought for so long against the monarchy do that? No one will be allowed to tamper with our federal democratic republic.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca809c7e80680e08bb6ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="884" height="589"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca829c7e80680e08bb6fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Oli’s intention appears to have been three-pronged:- To bring out more people on the streets than his rivals last week so as to impress the Election Commission, which is trying to decide which faction should have the NCP flag and poll symbol.- Use the speech as an election campaign to highlight his party’s development achievements.-  To convince the NCP cadre and the Central Committee that his faction is the mainstream of the party.The prime minister was more moderate than usual in his tone, not using derogatory phrases against his rivals. He gave a full-fledged campaign speech, highlighting what he said were his government’s development achievements, and assuring a cheering crowd that his government would exploit Nepal’s mineral, hydropower and natural resources to create jobs and raise living standards of Nepalis.Prime Minister Oli’s supporters appeared to be promoting a cult of personality around him, with a huge cutout of him above the stage, posters bearing the prime minister’s visage on every streetlamp post on Darbar Marg, and even a helium balloon with the party flag and Oli’s portrait on it. This invited comparisons on social media to King Gyanendra’s desperate attempts to hold on to power in 2006.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca859c7e80680e08bb70jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2403" height="1602"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca889c7e80680e08bb71jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1405" height="937">Alluding to Dahal’s warning that his group may need to abandon a ‘vegetarian’ agitation and go for a ‘non-vegetarian’ one, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa warned his former Boss: “We will lock up anyone going for a non-vegetarian agitation in the zoo.”Oli loyalist and former Defence Minister Ishwar Pokhrel blamed Dahal and Nepal for wrecking party unity and squandering the gains of the 2017 election.While Nepal ground to a halt during Thursday’s strike by one faction, the rally by another at the centre of the city on Friday affected traffic movement all day with the main thoroughfares closed off.While Durbar Marg was occupied by the supporters of Oli, a civic group marched towards the presidential residence at Shital Niwas earlier in the day, protesting the government making unconstitutional appointments to constitutional bodies. Writers Khagendra Sangroula, Narayan Wagle, Sanjeev Uprety and others took part in the rally.Pro-Dahal leaders of NCP, led by Agni Sapkota also showed up at the Supreme Court on Friday to file a writ against the Constitutional Council convening without him to make the appointments. On Tuesday, President Bidya Devi Bhandari swore in the 32 individuals to various constitutional bodies.The Dahal faction claimed to have brought 100,000 people to its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/">demonstration near Tundikhel</a> on 22 January, while the Oli group boasted of a 200,000 crowd on Friday. It doesn’t end there—Dahal is responding with another rally in Kathmandu on 10 February. Then Oli loyalists are planning rallies in Butwal and Biratnagar on 13 and 20 February.The rallies are demonstrations are being seen as show of strength by the two NCP factions for the snap polls called by PM Oli for 30 April and 10 May. Again, this hinges on the Supreme court verdict on the Prime Minister K P Oli’s dissolution of the House.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca8c9c7e80680e08bb72jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1275" height="850"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca8f9c7e80680e08bb73jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2412" height="1608"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca929c7e80680e08bb74jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1431" height="954">Aside from the show of strength on the streets, leaders from both sides have been engaged in a war of words in speeches and through the media. The language used has been increasingly abusive, and derogatory. The two sides are also contesting for the NCP flag and symbol, with the decision again resting on the Election Commission.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/zero-sum-game-for-nepals-ruling-communists/">Cornered and isolated</a> by the Dahal-Nepal faction and the support it has within the NCP, Oli is now seen as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/splitting-and-spitting/">turning to India</a> for support, as he continues to evoke Hindu ties with India in his interviews and conversations.There has been widespread criticism in social media against the NCP leaders for punishing the people for not being able to resolve their differences. The plight of the driver of a taxi that was set on fire by Dahal-Nepal supporters on Thursday got wide play in the media and got much sympathy.Dahal himself apologised to the public for the hardships they had to endure on Thursday, but he said it was all necessary to defend the federal democratic Constitution and rule of law. In his speech Oli also offered his regrets to the public for having cordoned off the city centre for the whole day.Indeed, the general public appeared to have stayed away from the rallies by both factions, which were populated mainly by party cadre bused in from all over the country.For most families in Kathmandu, there were more urgent things to do attend to than listen to speeches.“I take my daughter along when I go to work, and she had to walk with me for an hour because of Thursday’s bund,” said Sunita Lama, a single mother with a five-year-old.

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