Even before Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal returned from a four-day official trip to India on Saturday, commentators and the social web back home had given the visit an F in his report card. Welcoming Dahal before their bilateral talks on Thursday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had already declared that Dahal’s visit would be a “super-hit”. And indeed, from an Indian perspective it was. Nepal had a long wish-list of things to be sorted out during the visit, but India was not giving in on any of the really substantial ones, and most of the outcomes were cosmetic.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/nepal-pm-to-india-to-reboot-ties">Nepal PM to India to reboot ties</a>, Chandra Kishore The Nepali side has tried to highlight some of the positive achievements of the visit, but had to be satisfied with less than what it wanted.&nbsp; Nepal had demanded a 25-year energy cooperation deal with India, but Modi only verbally announced that India would procure up to 10,000MW of power from Nepal in the next ten years. The agreement on exporting only 40MW of power to Bangladesh via India was largely symbolic. The MoUs were signed in the presence of Dahal and Modi for the Lower Arun and Phukot Karnali hydropower projects (pictured below) had already got the green light in March.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230603030648_08ef06d22b8a78dff275060ab89359323f1e9d2ef12cf00b7a7d1e57a3f9975b.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20230603030648_08ef06d22b8a78dff275060ab89359323f1e9d2ef12cf00b7a7d1e57a3f9975b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1776" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Prachanda New Delhi"> </figure>  There is criticism from commentators in Nepal that those river project agreements, the Butwal-Gorakhpur transmission line as well as the ground breaking of two more petroleum pipelines in Nepal would disproportionately benefit India. Even the building of a new integrated checkpoints in Nepalganj and Dodhara Shandani would facilitate Indian exports to Nepal.&nbsp; Building petroleum infrastructure at a time when Nepal should be focussed on meeting its 2045 net-zero decarbonisation goals appeared incongruous to many. Nepal had insisted on two-way traffic on the L626 and B345 air routes west from Kathmandu that would shorten travel time and make inbound flights to Pokhara and Bhairawa airports more attractive to international operators. But India grudgingly agreed only to lower flight level traffic eastbound on L626 below 15,000ft. This would only benefit short-haul turboprops into Nepal, and not international flights from Delhi, the Gulf or Europe. India also agreed to provide access to its air space for ILS landings at the new Bhairawa airport, but said that inbound flights on B345 could not be allowed because of security concerns of its nearby air force base in Gorakhpur. Instead of air routes, Nepal got a promise to allow the use of India’s inland waterways for transportation. And while the agreement for cross-border digital payments would make it convenient for citizens of both countries, there are misgivings about privacy issues of personal data of Nepalis.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230603030648_04dd622c8dddea5a28a52443867703af8218a2558b5170565561db9b9add8562.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20230603030648_04dd622c8dddea5a28a52443867703af8218a2558b5170565561db9b9add8562" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Prachanda New Delhi"> <figcaption>Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal was welcomed with a classical dance performance in Delhi. Photo: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  India appears to have flatly refused to even discuss the Eminent Persons Group (EPG) report which has suggested a revision of the 1950 India-Nepal treaty that Nepalis have regarded as being asymmetric. There was also no progress on the Lipu Lek-Kalapni border dispute. However, Dahal in a meeting with Nepali editors on Friday said that he had raised Kalapani with Modi and both had agreed to find a resolution through negotiations. But he floated the controversial idea that Kalapani could be swapped with India for a road corridor across 26km of Indian territory to Bangladesh from southeast Nepal. He did not seem to know that Nepal had already secured an agreement with India’s I K Gujral government 30 years ago that allowed this corridor, which was never implemented. The Kalapani swap proposal is bound to raise nationalism hackles in Nepal. Dahal’s Delhi visit had other photo-ops that did not sit very well back in Nepal. The photograph of his daughter-private secretary Ganga Dahal sitting in during the prime minister’s meeting with India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra (and not Nepal’s foreign secretary) has been much criticised in Nepali social media.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230603030656_922355b75e4806b9f715bcf888d0dda65a41e6774bfb298fc4c758bc72e05aec.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20230603030656_922355b75e4806b9f715bcf888d0dda65a41e6774bfb298fc4c758bc72e05aec" data-rendition-name="original" width="1399" height="788" loading="lazy" alt="Prachanda and Ganga Dahal in Delhi"> <figcaption>Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra and Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval with visit Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his daughter Ganga Dahal in New Delhi on 31 May. Photo: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  Members of the Nepali delegation, who are not government officials but friends of ministers, taking selfies during solemn occasions like the wreath-laying at the Mahatma Gandhi memorial has also been lampooned in Nepal.&nbsp; But the most glaring contradiction was the sight of a Maoist prime minister of Nepal clad in saffron and holy thread, offering prayers at a Shiva temple in Indore (pictured below). Another photograph showed three senior Nepali cabinet ministers also in the same attire offering prayers.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230603030648_5ac04014aeeacb5be677111702fdf301083d8a8d7493dbb4b947e6630339666d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20230603030648_5ac04014aeeacb5be677111702fdf301083d8a8d7493dbb4b947e6630339666d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1170" height="658" loading="lazy" alt="Prachanda New Delhi"> <figcaption>Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal offering prayers at Shiva temple in Indore. Photo: BABURAM BHATTARAI/TWITTER </figcaption> </figure>  Commentators pointed out the contrasting irony of this with the Maoists assassinating Hindu priests and desecrating temples during their armed struggle in 1996-2006, and being the most aggressive proponents of making Nepal a secular republic after the peace accord. Many have said the transformation of Prachanda to Pushpa Kamal Dahal is now complete, and it is only a question of time before the Maoist Centre drops the ‘Maoist’ label from its party name.

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Super-hit, or super-flop?

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372182a9c7e80680e0baa2ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1350"/><figcaption>Indian Prime Moinister Narendra Modi and his Nepali counterpart Sher Bahadur Deuba visit Lumbini to mark Buddha Jayanti on 16 May. All photos: RSS</figcaption></figure>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Nepali counterpart Sher Bahadur Deuba met in Lumbini on Monday on the occasion of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/telling-the-story-of-buddhas-lumbini/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Buddha Jayanti</a>, offering prayers and holding a bilateral meeting.Modi flew in by helicopter after landing at India’s Kushinagar, and bypassing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bhairawas-new-airport-already-too-small/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gautam Buddha International Airport</a> that was also inaugurated today. The airport is Nepal’s second international gateway and is expected to boost pilgrimage and tourism traffic in the region.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372182d9c7e80680e0baa2bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption>Prime Minister Deuba inagurates Nepal' second international airport in Bhairawa also on Buddha Jayanti.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218309c7e80680e0baa2cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption>Also known as Gautam Buddha International Airport, it is expected to boost pilgrimage and tourism in the region.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218349c7e80680e0baa2djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1280"><figcaption>Mayadevi Temple decorated on the occasion of Buddha Jayanti.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218389c7e80680e0baa2ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1280"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/6372183c9c7e80680e0baa2fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/6372183f9c7e80680e0baa30jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="822"><figcaption>Jazeera Airways flight from Kuwait City which arrived on 16 May will operate regularly to Bhairawa.</figcaption></figure><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/buddhas-birthday-in-his-birthplace/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Lumbini was where the Buddha was born</a> 2,566 years ago, and Kushinagar is where he attained parinirvana. India also inaugurated an airport in Kushinagar, and the two countries are working together on a ‘Buddhist Circuit’ that also includes Bodh Gaya and Sarnath.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218429c7e80680e0baa31jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1198" height="818">Modi laid the foundation stone for the India International Centre for Buddhist Culture and Heritage and jointly inaugurated a 4,000 capacity meditation hall in Lumbini. Earlier, they lit lamps at the Ashoka Pillar, put up by the Mauryan emperor in 249BCE to mark <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/u-thant-kenzo-tange-and-the-buddhas-birthplace/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the nativity site</a>, and paid a visit to the Mayadevi Temple.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218459c7e80680e0baa32jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1188" height="857"><figcaption>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Mayadevi Temple to pay his respects. He also visited Indian community in Lumbini (pictured below, left).</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218489c7e80680e0baa33jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="545" height="401"><figcaption>Photo: DDNEWS</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/6372184a9c7e80680e0baa34jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1260" height="840"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/6372184d9c7e80680e0baa35jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2700"><figcaption>Narendra Modi with Sher Bahadur Deuba lays foundation stone or the India International Centre for Buddhist Culture and Heritage,</figcaption></figure>The day-long visit to Lumbini is Modi’s fifth trip to Nepal since he became prime minister in 2014. Bilateral relations soured after India imposed a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">6-month blockade</a> on Nepal and after it put 350 sqk km of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lines-on-a-map/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s territory in Limpiyadhura</a> in the country’s northwestern tip on its official maps.Modi tweeted in Nepali after arriving in Lumbini. He later posted: 'Happy to be among the wonderful people of Nepal on the special occasion of Buddha Purnima. Looking forward to the programmes in Lumbini.”'After bilateral meeting between the two prime ministers, Nepal and India also signed an agreement that included developing the 695MW Arun IV hydroelectric project in eastern Nepal at a cost of Rs80 billion. India's Sutlej Jala Vidyut Nigam (SJVN) which is also building the Arun-III will jointly develop the bigger project in partnership with Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA).Under the agreement, Nepal will get 152MW for free and the rest will be fed into the Indian grid.However, a much-expected agreement on opening up new two-way air routes from India and Nepal to facilitate new airports in Pokhara and Bhairawa did not materialise.

Deuba and Modi meet in Lumbini

<figure><img width="463" height="632" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171148/636bda459c7e80680e08025cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>PM of India. Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>Since China launched the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/china-builds-digital-and-medical-silk-roads/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/china-builds-digital-and-medical-silk-roads/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602476172254000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH7Sgq5w33uKrXXgTaKAW2yj4S9uw">Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)</a> to connect and integrate the Afro-Eurasian super-continent, four other countries, including India, have come up with their own counter-initiatives.  Japan has the Enhanced Partnership for Quality Infrastructure initiative, the United States established the International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC), and the European Union introduced a Strategy for Connecting Europe and Asia.  In 2014, soon after he was elected, Prime Minister Modi came up with is new ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy which set India on a path to strengthen intra- and inter-regional connectivity. In 2015, the Act East Policy was announced with a similar objective. ‘Connectivity’ has therefore emerged as India’s newest geostrategic buzzword.  But India’s implementation on the new policy has been mixed. What should be done to make India’s counter-strategy work better? <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-india-nepal-china-geopolitical-tri-junction/">The India-Nepal-China geopolitical tri-junction</a>, Kunda DixitAfter independence, India kept itself isolated and disconnected from its neighbouring countries. There were several India-led crossborder initiatives, but Delhi’s position towards its neighbours was that of ‘benign neglect’. Presently in response to the rise of China, India has made regional connectivity a top priority.Initially, India had preferred the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/sorry-state/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/sorry-state/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602476172254000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFJlJlqqUKL1XaMWU1AB2SFpSiiaQ">South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)</a> as the vehicle for pursuing regional infrastructure cooperation. But this did not make much progress because of Indo-Pakistani rivalry. India has, therefore, adopted a dual-track approach to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/The-gadfly/saarc-inspire-south-asian-economies-to-collaborate,390" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/The-gadfly/saarc-inspire-south-asian-economies-to-collaborate,390&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602476172254000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFX5PWeJSvUpXBr7laSV87dypkzmQ">connectivity made up of intra- and inter-regional approaches</a>.Encouraging progress has been made in bilateral and sub-regional projects. Over a dozen new Integrated Check Posts have been constructed to facilitate trade with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma and Nepal. Inland waterway agreements are also being operationalised with Bangladesh and Nepal. The number of railway connections with Bangladesh has increased from one in 2008 to four. In 2019, India and Nepal inaugurated South Asia’s first cross-border oil pipeline. In <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/The-New,86" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/The-New,86&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602476172254000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHLMYUDyAq3rtcqE7zLLlEsPTINnw">sub-regional cooperation</a>, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal (BBIN) economic cooperation has gained considerable traction. The BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement for free movement of people, goods, and motor vehicles has been implemented, although Bhutan has withdrawn temporarily. Recently, Bangladesh has allowed its ports in Chittagong and Mongla to be used as a transit for cargo moving to India’s north-eastern states. This cuts the distance between Kolkata to Agartala via Assam from 1600 kilometres to 450 km. Encouraged by this development, BBIN countries are implementing plans to enhance multimodal connectivity in the sub-region. With BBIN, India’s Northeast region is emerging as the bridgehead between South and Southeast Asia.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/connecting-Bangladesh-China-India-Nepal,2966">BIMSTEC, BCIM, BBIN - &amp; ‘BCIN'</a>, Kanak Mani Dixit in Dhaka <figure><img width="833" height="592" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171148/636bda479c7e80680e08025djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Illustration: RECONNECTING ASIA CSIS</figcaption></figure>South Asia Sub-regional Economic Cooperation programme, which is supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), has completed about 50 regional projects worth over US$11 billion. Less successful, however, have been India’s inter-regional connectivity projects. To its west, India is supporting the International North-South Transport Corridor for moving freight between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe by avoiding Pakistan. There is also the India-Iran-Afghanistan Transit Corridor which focuses on the southern Iranian port of Chabahar, which is strategically located close to the China-operated Gwadar port in Pakistan. Progress on these projects has been slow because, under the pressure from the US which has imposed sanctions against Iran over the latter’s nuclear ambitions, India has dragged its feet.In the east, India has four initiatives to enhance connectivity with ASEAN. The first is the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Corridor which is a sea-river-land hybrid corridor that seeks to improve India’s access to its North-East through Burma. Although initiated more than two decades ago, this project has yet to take off because of financing problems and hostility from the Arakan Army, a Burmese rebel group.The Trilateral Highway project between India’s Northeast region, Burma’s Bagan and Thailand’s Mae Sot has also met a similar fate. The third is the Mekong-India Economic Corridor which aims to jumpstart India-Southeast Asia trade and investment linkages by connecting Chennai to Ho Chi Minh City through Dawei Port in Burma. This project has stalled after the project’s main contractor, Italthai Group, pulled out.The only promising project is the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), between the BBIN countries, Sri Lanka, and two ASEAN countries (Thailand and Burma). The BIMSTEC Motor Vehicle Agreement is being negotiated and the BIMSTEC Master Plan on Transport Connectivity has been prepared.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/">Between two oceans</a>, Editorial <figure><img width="1123" height="585" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171148/636bda499c7e80680e08025ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>16th ASEAN-India Summit in Thailand in 2019.</figcaption></figure>Narendra Modi has placed regional connectivity prominently on the Indian government’s agenda. However, for this policy to be successful, especially in the context of similar initiatives of other powers, it needs to be reset in at least five ways: <ul><li style="font-weight: 400;">Crossborder projects should be selected through proper data analysis and project evaluation techniques. Stakeholder and NGO participation should also be sought.</li><li style="font-weight: 400;">Instead of ambitious initiatives, India should seek to implement relatively smaller and actionable projects. Indian initiatives face financial obstacles because of limited fiscal space. Its public sector banks are also not well capitalised, and private banks are too risk averse.</li><li style="font-weight: 400;">Coordination problem needs to be addressed. India’s foreign infrastructure policy-making process is incoherent and decentralised. No single agency is responsible. A cabinet-level steering body might also be required.</li><li style="font-weight: 400;">Successful connectivity policy requires trade openness. This is because ports, roads, railways, and airports will be of little use if barriers to trade are not dismantled. India should encourage trade openness and trade facilitation among South Asian countries.</li><li style="font-weight: 400;">India should further deepen cooperation with other countries and multilateral development banks. With Japan and the US, India has established a trilateral infrastructure financing facility. Cooperation with Australia has also increased. In Bangladesh, India has tied up with Russia to develop a nuclear power plant. A lot more joint activities and co-financing are necessary. </li></ul><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/governance-determines-growth,1393" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/governance-determines-growth,1393&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602476172254000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHYRf8hLW2IAEJmTBTc9NCrRQQ7pQ"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171148/636bda4c9c7e80680e08025fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="100" height="103">Pradumna B Rana</a> is a Visiting Associate Professor at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. He is the principal author of Jump-starting South Asia: Revisiting Economic Reforms and Look East Policies (New Delhi, Oxford University Press, 2017).

Reconnecting India to rest of Asia

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141132/636babe59c7e80680e077f01jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="987" height="511"/><figcaption>The India-China border flashpoints in the Himalaya are hotspots in more ways than one. The latest clashes threaten to derail cooperation on climate change between two countries that have the world's biggest carbon footprints.</figcaption></figure>One of the casualties of the strain in relations between India and China will be the cooperation between the two of the world’s most populous countries on the climate crisis.After the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/view-of-galwan-from-bhutan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">violent clash on Galwan Valley in Ladakh</a> on 15 June that left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead, the two countries have been taking tit-for-tat economic action against each other. The latest was India’s ban on 50 Chinese apps, including TikTok which had at least 125 million users in India.After a brief period in the 1950s of ‘Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai’ bilateral bonhomie under Mao Zedong and Jawaharlal Nehru, things have not been the same. There is economic competition and there have been major border confrontations since the 1962 Himalayan war.Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping, Sino-Indian relations had actually improved with the two leaders having met multiple times since Modi came to power in India in 2014.Modi’s visit to Xian in 2015 saw a breakthrough in bilateral relations, with the <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__southasianvoices.org_india-2Dand-2Dchina-2Dfrom-2Dpolitical-2Ddifferences-2Dto-2Deconomic-2Dsimilarities_&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=zEqnZMnVgge9Vp_ANwzx7Kxt-8J4K-RkMaX1KTy1ypE&amp;e=">signing</a> of 24 agreements ranging from economic and infrastructure development and military co-operation. Among the agreements signed were the ‘Memorandum of Understanding on Co-operation in Ocean Sciences, Climate Change and Cryosphere’ and the ‘MoU on Co-operation in Earthquake Science and Engineering.But even while the two sides seem to have taken measures to de-escalate tensions along their disputed border, a new cold war has set in over the Himalaya just a time when the mountain range is thawing because of the impact of climate change.The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in its ‘<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalayan Assessment</a>’ last year said that one-third of the ice on the Himalaya would be gone by 2050 and two-thirds by the end of the century if measures are not taken to cut global emissions.Although the specific details of the Xian MoUs between India and China are not available, they were taken as positive signs in that both countries recognise the climate crisis to be a pressing challenge in the region in the coming years. It was also an indirect acknowledgement of the fact that the two countries together produce one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions – China 28% and India 7%.But both countries also share common climate vulnerabilities such as depleting water resources, weather extremes resulting in floods and droughts, extreme heat stress, and rising sea levels. Ironically, the very mountainous border both are fighting over is also Asia’s water tower, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalayan glaciers</a> are the source of major rivers in India, China, and the rest of Asia.The China–India agreements on climate change were perhaps the strongest agreements and bilateral networks between the two countries and provide a salient case study on what the future of collaboration between China and India could look like.In 2001, the United States withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol, much like its withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016. Both led to a vacuum in international climate governance. With help from the European Union, China and India negotiated through the BASIC Group (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) to come up with a joint climate agenda.Before the <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__archive.nepalitimes.com_news.php-3Fid-3D16428&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=GefS1VCcGSBnLD_CrmPlX43Y1MuRNDwnJ9XNz2-f8UY&amp;e=">Conference of Parties (COP15) negotiations in Copenhagen</a>, China and India took early steps to develop more coordination within the group to come up with a common position that would serve their national interests. In 2009, the two countries <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.tandfonline.com_doi_abs_10.1080_10220461.2011.622945&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=_Ldw6R-NfoiWh_1NZaJWbnuqa1TeaSk5fLOvkGIVJZ4&amp;e=">met</a> in Beijing to sign an agreement to coordinate their approach to climate negotiations.In Copenhagen in 2009, the BASIC Group got a boost by being recognised as a negotiation group of emerging economies. Its members were hailed for salvaging the conference by brokering the Copenhagen Accord with the United States at the very last minute despite criticism of leading a non-transparent and exclusionary decision-making process.However, tensions soon emerged within the BASIC group. While India was praised for the newfound role of a mediator, China was seen as a bully in climate negotiations by the international community. The two countries also differed their own positions on points like emissions reduction targets and peaking of emissions.Things started going downhill after that. In 2014, President Xi signed a joint climate agreement with then President Obama which formalised the rift between India and China. As a response to China’s joint agreement with the US, Prime Minister Modi <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__economictimes.indiatimes.com_news_politics-2Dand-2Dnation_obama-2Din-2Dindia-2Dpm-2Dnarendra-2Dmodi-2Dbarack-2Dobama-2Dstrike-2Dalliance-2Don-2Dclimate-2Dchange-2Dair-2Dpollution-2Drenewable-2Denergy-2Dfocus-2Dareas_articleshow_46016108.cms-3Ffrom-3Dmdr&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=jOu4w8J5xVH_d7OkpM_aZ2oTh9lQd4MHEv-A6rKTxi4&amp;e=">said</a>: “India will not be arm-twisted into climate action going against its national interest just on account of other countries.”Although China and India presently do not have any official alliance on climate, they continue to share large carbon emissions profiles, vulnerabilities to climate change, and the common interest for energy-resilience.The energy sector in both countries is following similar trajectories. China is the largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, with India at number 3 behind the United States. China’s carbon emission from the energy sector is expected to decline after peaking in 2030, while India is taking action to curb coal consumption and the associated problem of air pollution. The two countries also have a shared interest in reducing their dependence on imported fossil fuels and to promote national energy security.To do so, solar energy has emerged as a key interest in both countries. China is now the largest manufacturer of solar systems in the world. India has also <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__onlinelibrary.wiley.com_doi_abs_10.1111_1758-2D5899.12550&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=mkdMtvidoqWthvwS-Qgk7P3_bl8sCeFwW-RNi76U5Ls&amp;e=">pursued</a> policies promoting initiatives like the International Solar Alliance, and to drive down the costs of solar power and increase its share in the energy grid.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141132/636babe79c7e80680e077f02jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1047" height="627">China is India’s second-largest trading partner, and building an alliance to promote the diffusion of technology across both countries and to learn from each other brings a win-win situation for both countries. It remains to be seen how much impact the current bilateral tension will have on trade.The 2019 meeting between President Xi and Prime Minister Modi <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nepalitimes.com_latest_political-2Dgeography-2Dof-2Dindia-2Dnepal-2Dchina-2Dties_&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=oirjoEgzy256RbHnATPQeb4OKgya3bAc9C5jRioq3dc&amp;e=">in Chennai</a>, just before Xi <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nepalitimes.com_banner_what-2Dis-2Dxi-2Djinpings-2Dbig-2Dsurprise_&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=H7Gu_6O6J0tXHn0cACUsEUV1Y1ZezQ98gsaq-TkvCkM&amp;e=">flew to Nepal</a>, had generated tangible results and was <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.chinadailyhk.com_articles_187_234_97_1571201543459.html&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=IrdTk6LcChKRTTg3OLR3rspvQUzxa2MrPrrtfnpLiR8&amp;e=">supposed</a> to have opened a new chapter in bilateral relations. The informal meeting mechanism had also provided an opportunity to put territorial disputes aside to <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__southasianvoices.org_india-2Dand-2Dchina-2Dfrom-2Dpolitical-2Ddifferences-2Dto-2Deconomic-2Dsimilarities_&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=zEqnZMnVgge9Vp_ANwzx7Kxt-8J4K-RkMaX1KTy1ypE&amp;e=">focus</a> on bilateral relations given common challenges like climate change.Despite the media war between the two countries over the current border clash, it is in the national interest of both countries to increase collaboration in trade, climate action, and other issues – especially as the world plunges into a recession caused by the <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nepalitimes.com_here-2Dnow_the-2Dclimate-2Dconnection-2Dto-2Dcovid-2D19_&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=GP_3RzYeaWUVZtOLjy8k7uFbGrXHgpUmGGHuZH6H1Ik&amp;e=">COVID-19</a> pandemic.It could be this realisation that prompted Modi’s downplaying of the crisis by <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.hindustantimes.com_india-2Dnews_chinese-2Dtroops-2Ddid-2Dnot-2Denter-2Dour-2Dterritory-2Dsays-2Dpm-2Dmodi-2Dat-2Dall-2Dparty-2Dmeeting-2Don-2Dladakh-2Dstandoff_story-2DQGgGUyL3sVRYB7mp3Y8bBI.html&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=7k-SLurfVGd6ue7b1xrHgg&amp;m=H9GhrTj_2jGmOawKuU1gRp-_CL6hWK9-HdamIhGuL_o&amp;s=RIRMrA_GMmSKg7m5qcAfROA_BMHG8mgK_FvSVIso3zQ&amp;e=">suggesting</a> that the “Chinese neither entered our territory nor has any post been taken over by them.”<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-climate-connection-to-covid-19/">Rastraraj Bhandari </a>is pursuing a Masters in Economics and China Studies at the Yenching Academy of Peking University in Beijing.

Right climate for India-China talks on climate change

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101140/636b75829c7e80680e0623f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365"/>Nepal’s Communist Party leaders must take note of two events that unfolded in India this week: <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-51638345" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the roaring welcome to US President Donald Trump</a> and the ongoing communal riots in Delhi’s northeastern suburb.That the Narendra Modi government was able to put up a great two-day show to woo Trump, who repeatedly praised Modi and said “America loves India” has been somewhat overshadowed by the violence that has claimed over 20 lives in Delhi.The two events depict contrasting pictures: one of a new emerging India eager to engage with superpowers, even taking lead in issues of international concern. And the other of an India engulfed in violence between some Hindus and Muslims. The ruling BJP and Modi, supported by the right-wing groups like RSS and VHP, find themselves in the vortex of this violence.Trump reached India on Monday and along with Modi addressed the ‘Namaste Trump’ rally in Ahmedabad’s Motera Stadium, the largest cricket stadium in the world, attended by over 100,000 people. The two presented their visions for the next phase of Indo-US strategic partnership.Although the much-awaited trade deal did not happen, the two sides pulled together a $3billion military deal, sought commitments to fight terrorism, narco-terrorism and organised crime and signed three MoUs in the health and oil sectors. Trump even discussed the importance of a secure 5G network in India, ahead of trials involving China’s Huawei which he said must be “a tool for freedom, progress, prosperity, not a conduit for suppression and censorship”.Important for Nepal to note is their dialogue in security cooperation. Besides reiterating that the two countries will work to combat “radical Islamic terrorism” which will dearly affect the functioning of SAARC, Trump praised the military cooperation and said that the US and India, along with Japan and Australia, should work together for security of the Indo-Pacific region as the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) grouping.The diplomatic and military arrangements of the Quad are widely viewed as a response to the rapidly increasing economic and military power of China in the region. Sandwiched and landlocked between India and China, Nepal will have to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">balance its relations between China and a US-backed India</a>.As it is, a $500 million US-funded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Millennium Challenge Corporation</a> (MCC) deal to improve Nepal’s connectivity <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is in limbo</a> because of opposition from a faction of the ruling Communist Party that sees it as a part of the American Indo-Pacific Strategy. Parliamentary ratification of the project has been delayed.The MCC is viewed with much interest by India’s civil society and academia lately, and is seen as a direct counter to China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Sections of the Nepali establishment views India as an obstructionist power, and are trying to develop closer ties with China.But India is finding more grounds of convergence with the US, which now views South Asia as a vital part of its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a>. Smaller countries in India’s periphery are bound to be trapped in this rivalry. With pressing domestic concerns at home over opposition to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indian-nepalis-alarmed-by-citizenship-amendment-bill/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Constitution Amendment Act (CAA) India </a>may play silent and quiet diplomacy leaving the US and China to compete for influence in India’s neighborhood.Trump and Modi are said to have discussed developments in South Asia at length during this visit, meaning they will collaborate and closely consult each other on regional matters. Nepal must gear up to deal with a more forceful America in the near future even when it is already grappling with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-is-xi-jinpings-big-surprise/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a dominant China</a>.It is in India’s advantage if the US temporarily fills the vacuum in Nepal, which New Delhi feels is its traditional sphere of influence. So, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign policy challenge for Nepal</a> will not be to balance between India and China so much anymore, but getting into meaningful dialogue with China and the US to protect its national interest.India considers the US as its ‘natural ally’. The Modi-Trump equation seen in Gujarat and Delhi this week speaks volumes of their friendship and desire to foster closer ties between the world’s oldest and largest democracies. Even in midst of communal riots in Delhi, Trump stated at a press conference “it is up to India” to deal with the CAA matter, quickly adding that Modi is committed to “religious freedom in India.”Most analysts conclude that if Trump is re-elected in November elections, India’s relations with the United States could be further strengthened.The author is a Nepali journalist and researcher based in New Delhi.

The India, US, Nepal, China quadrangle

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a64c19c7e80680e0598f5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1047"/><figcaption>Photo: GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>In the strict legalese that the United Nations is accustomed to, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Madrid Climate Summit</a> is called the 25th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We will call it COP25 for short. After riots engulfed Santiago in Chile, the venue was shifted to Madrid — just as well because that reduced the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">carbon footprint</a> of the gathering.COP25 comes at a time when scientists have warned that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">goals of the Paris Agreement of 2015 are outdated</a>, and the targets for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">curbing carbon emissions</a> need to be revised. Erratic weather, the melting of polar ice-caps, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/">glaciers shrinking in the Himalaya</a> and other climate-induced changes that scientists expected to happen in 2030 are already taking place.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37206&amp;preview_nonce=9067429ee4&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal must prepare for climate migration,</a> Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37197&amp;preview_nonce=e98b9c3c62&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Women in climate hot spots face challenges adapting,</a> Marty LoganThe reason: carbon emissions are going up instead of down. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere crossed 408 parts per million last week — several orders of magnitude higher than before the industrial revolution, when it never rose above 300.Just to put it in perspective, all the changes we see happening around the world due to global warming have been set off by a temperature rise of only 1oC since human society started <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">burning fossil fuels</a> like coal. Yet, in the best-case scenario global average temperature is set to rise by at least 2oC in the next 30 years.In its Emissions Gap Report 2019 last week, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) warned that countries need to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 7.6% a year between 2020 and 2030 in order to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cap temperature increase at 1.5oC</a>, as agreed in Paris. But the US has pulled out of the Paris Agreement, and major emitters of carbon dioxide have not reduced their emissions as agreed. To meet the Paris targets, greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 40% by 2030 and countries need to become carbon neutral by 2050.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The carbon footprint of tourism</a>COP25’s motto is ‘Time To Act’, and it is hoped the 50 heads of state attending the meeting will do just that. Environmental activists are holding a parallel ‘Social Summit for Climate’ to pressure governments to not backtrack on commitments. Yet, conspicuous by their absence in Madrid are US President Donald Trump, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. Together they represent more than half the total emissions of greenhouse gases worldwide today.Scientists have painted an apocalyptic picture of what will happen if the world fails to act. Rising global temperatures will lead to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heat stress</a>, falling <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ipcc-report-and-nepals-food-security/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">food production</a>, continental-scale forest fires, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">receding icecaps</a> and rising sea levels. All these slow-onset disasters will have an impact on food production and human habitation, forcing tens of millions to relocate. The climate crisis is already leading indirectly to political instability and conflict, which in turn adds to migration pressure.Aside from all the other changes like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mass extinction of species</a> and collapse of natural ecosystems, it is migration that will have the most profound impact on human society. Some of these challenges are supposed to be discussed this week in Madrid, as delegations deliberate on the nexus between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-waste-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate and migration</a>. The UNFCCC’s task force on displacement will present its report, and rich countries will also have to fund the under-pledged $100 billion Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda Dixit To be sure, humans have been migrating throughout history, forced to move due to natural climate cycles or the advance of the Ice Age. However, this is the first time they will be migrating because of human-induced changes to the climate.People migrate due to sudden disasters like cyclones, floods, wildfires or droughts. But they will also <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-and-dry-upper-mustang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">relocate because of slow-onset changes</a> like sea-level rise and erratic rainfall patterns. The lesson of the past two years is that slow-onset is not so slow anymore.The world has reached a tipping point, where small quantitative changes have created larger non-linear irreversible movement of people. This poses huge implications for politics and security.People are <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">leaving the mountains</a> due to landslides and floods, drylands because of water stress and coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Their destinations are overcrowded urban areas where they are even more vulnerable. A sign of things to come was Cyclone Fani, which forced 3.5 million people in India to be displaced earlier this year.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>, EditorialThe World Bank estimates that by 2050, nearly 150 million people in South and Southeast Asia may become climate refugees. Sea level rise alone is expected to displace 50 million people from Bangladesh and India.Unless Nepal’s subsistence farmers get irrigation and other support to survive erratic monsoons, they will have no choice but to move. As our reports this week show, outmigration of Nepalis is now increasing, partly due to climate change. With the men gone, women are left to cope with the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impacts of the climate emergency</a> on their own.Nepal also needs to do much more to reduce petroleum demand — not just to save the planet but also to save its own economy.In the end, it all boils down to vision and governance to recognise the climate crisis and be ready for its effects. Being unprepared will be much more costly in the long run.<h2>10 years ago</h2>As world leaders gather in Madrid this week for the Climate Summit, it is interesting to note that exactly 10 years ago this week <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/479" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali Times #479</a> was discussing the Copenhagen Climate Summit of 2009. Excerpt from an editorial from 4-10 December 2009:‘The people in the mountains of Nepal do not know that the futures of their children and grandchildren are tied up with how the international climate change conference next week in Copenhagen goes.Will the rich countries agree to cut back to 40% of 1990 emissions in the next 10 years (which scientists warn is needed to keep the average rise of global temperatures to within two degrees Celsius) or will they stall at the 13% the Americans say is as far as they can go?<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a64c49c7e80680e0598f6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="329" height="500">The Copenhagen meet will also reveal whether the rich countries are actually willing to help developing countries make the switch from fossil fuel to renewables, and whether they will help to fund adaptation measures so the world’s poor can cope with rising sea levels and receding snowlines.'

MIGRATION  MITIGATION

<figure><img width="1200" height="855" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811118/636a2b3f9c7e80680e045967jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: NARENDRA MODI/TWITTER</figcaption></figure>The best barometer for public opinion in any new city is the local taxi-driver. Opinionated, blunt and matter-of-fact, they have the ears on the ground more than most high-profile political analysts.On the long trip from the airport to the Delhi suburb of Noida this week, the taxi driver was determined to make Narendra Modi win (“Hum to Modijiko hi jitayenge) in India’s general elections to be held in seven phases from 11-19 April.Under Modi, the streets were cleaner, the roads better, he said, adding that he had 24-hour water supply and the quality of government schools had improved.But didn’t Modi’s demonetising of high denomination notes create a crisis? Yes, but the hardships were justifiable because it was designed to flush out black money, he said. Even so, the driver felt Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Adami Party (AAP) would retain its rule in the Delhi region.The summer heat is building up in India’s capital, and adding to it is the election fever. India still struggles with poverty, joblessness, farmer suicides, and intolerance, and Modi’s strategy appears to be to make Indians forget about these problems and reap patriotic mileage from the recent confrontation with Pakistan, and the test of an anti-satellite missile.    Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-watching-from-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India watching from Nepal</a>, Rameshwar Bohara <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-political-pilgrim/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A political pilgrim</a>, Om Astha Raihttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTdnH2OMyFI&amp;feature=youtu.be“People who tried to raise issues related to the discrimination of Dalits, the plight of farmers and women have been silenced,” says Delhi-based academic Jhanvi Andharia. The independent National Autonomous Women’s Movement of India has called for a Women’s March on 4 April to ‘Vote for a Change’ against caste and gender-based discrimination as well as hate speech.Voices of dissent have been systematically silenced. Journalist Gauri Lankesh was killed last year, raising concern about the safety of whistle-blowers. Activists like Sudha Bhardwaj, Shoma Sen and many others have been imprisoned because they raised the issue of corruption. However, most liberal analysts themselves predicted that Narendra Modi was headed for a second term as prime minister. <img width="1040" height="780" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811118/636a2b429c7e80680e045968jpeg.jpg" alt="">A woman at a photo framing business in Noida is disillusioned with the opposition Congress Party for letting corruption thrive, and lacking strong leadership. Modi’s strategy of identifying himself with the common Indian seems to be working.As in the previous campaign four years ago, he has kept reminding voters about his tea seller (chai wala) origins, and this time has described himself a ‘chowkidar’ (gatekeeper) of India. However much the Congress has tried to use alleged kickbacks in a deal to buy French fighter jets, the public perception of Modi is of a clean, nationalist leader.A post graduate student in development studies who wanted to be identified only by his first name, Himanshu, predicted that Modi’s BJP would win, but with a slimmer margin. He said that the rural poor supported the BJP due to national schemes like the ujwala yojana.  Another student, Shreya, described Modi as “a man of discipline”, adding that it did not matter to her that he is implicated in riots in Gujarat in 2002 in which more than a thousand people, mostly Muslims, were killed.    <figure><img width="1920" height="917" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811118/636a2b459c7e80680e045969jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Narendra Modi's BJP has been using social media very actively during the election campaign. </figcaption></figure>Vijaya, another student from Hyderabad, said that she was not interested in politics but liked Modi as the prime minister because of his presence on social media and his monthly radio program.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/campaigning-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Campaigning in Nepal</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/modis-himalayan-marathon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Modi's Himalayan marathon</a>, Om Astha RaiAbhishek, 28, has a masters in education who had to become a Uber driver just to support his family.  He is so disillusioned with political leaders of all parties, that he is not going to bother to vote. He rues the fact that Indian voters seem to be swayed by populist nationalism. <img width="1280" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811118/636a2b499c7e80680e04596ajpeg.jpg" alt="">Interviews with a cross section of grassroots and academic, rural and urban Indians this week indicate that Modi’s BJP is headed to a second term, but mainly because there is a lack of alternative leadership in the opposition. Ironically, radical Hindu-right supporters are angry that Modi has not fulfilled his promise to build a temple at Ayodhya to replace a mosque demolished by Hindu protesters in 1992.Modi himself appears to have got a lot of mileage from the Kumbh Mela, from appearing to stand up to Pakistan, and from his investment in infrastructure. In fact, it is difficult not to move around northern India these days without the bearded visage of Narendra Modi staring down from billboards along highways and at railway stations and airports.

At ground zero in India’s election heartland

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171152/636937bf9c7e80680e03fe59jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="870"/>It is a sight repeated tens of millions of times every morning across northern India: groups of women carrying water lota making their way to the fields before dawn to defecate. They need to do this before light, and ahead of the men.The off-Bollywood movie <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5785170/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Toilet: Ek Prem Katha</a> begins with women carrying lanterns and lota ducking behind bushes. But this morning there is a slight complication: an ‘eve-teaser’ passes by driving a tractor and the women are caught in the headlights. They freeze and hurriedly cover their faces with the pallu of their saris.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/toilet-trained/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Toilet trained</a>, Sonia Awale<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-to-take-a-dump/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Where to take a dump</a>, Bhushan Tuladhar<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nature-calls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nature calls</a>Director <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm3109648/?ref_=tt_ov_dr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shree Narayan Singh</a> plunges directly into the ugly reality of India where 300 million people still defecate in the open, an activity that is especially risky for women. He uses scatological humour to tackle a serious taboo.Toilet tells the tale of 36-year-old Keshav Sharma who dreams of getting married but cannot unless he finds a girl with two thumbs in her left hand, as per the requirement of his priest father. He is also made to marry a black buffalo in an attempt to rid him of a fault in his horoscope.But after a chance meeting outside a train toilet, Keshav immediately falls for Jaya Joshi, who eventually reciprocates his feelings. Keshav makes a fake thumb for Jaya to wear to get his father’s approval for marriage. But the very next morning after their wedding, Jaya, a graduate from a well-to-do educated family, is shocked to find that Keshav’s house does not have a loo.Initially Keshav does not understand what is the big deal. Why doesn’t his new wife socialise with the other lota women at dawn? She refuses, so he tries to convince his orthodox father to make a latrine inside the house. Dad thinks that would be sacrilegious. Keshav then comes up with hilarious temporary solutions to stop Jaya from ultimately leaving him, but we won’t tell you what they are.Toilet is not just about the lack of latrines. At a deeper level it deals with India’s entrenched patriarchy, the irrational orthodoxy of religious fundamentalists, bureaucratic disinterest and corruption. Which is all very familiar to us here in Nepal, albeit less pervasive.The film was one of the highest grossing Hindi movies ever, but has already come and gone in Kathmandu theatres in 2018. Those who missed it can stream it online.This movie will probably be more effective than thousands of editorials and public service announcements to stop open defecation. Toilet is edutainment cinema at its best, communicating a public health message while addressing the underlying social contradictions.Veteran actor <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0451600/?ref_=ttfc_fc_cl_t5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anupam Kher</a> as the self-confessed ‘dirty mind but clean hearted’ uncle of Jaya, and <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm4450033/?ref_=ttfc_fc_cl_t4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Divyendu Sharma</a> playing Keshav’s bother add the much-needed comic relief in this at times preachy film. <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1106058/?ref_=tt_ov_st_sm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sudhir Pandey</a> as the father of Keshav deserves a special mention for his brilliant characterisation of a devout Hindu priest set in his ways. Relative newcomer <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm6277267/?ref_=tt_ov_st_sm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bhumi Pednekar</a> has stage presence as the strong-willed Jaya. <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0474774/?ref_=tt_ov_st_sm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Akshya Kumar</a> as Keshav is perfectly cast, if a little too old for the part.Toilet does suffer from the typical Bollywood plot-holes: too many happenstance and ironically larger than life events for a movie inspired by a true story. But it is still a stark portrayal of a society where mobiles are more prized than toilets.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ym4EJQ7XORk

Sonia Awale

Love and Loo

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/636937109c7e80680e03fe15jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1068"/><figcaption>Diwakar Chettri</figcaption></figure>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP has suffered a shocking setback in assembly elections in five states, some of them in the Hindu heartland. The defeat is comparable to the debacle faced by President Donald Trump in November’s mid-term polls in the US.The loss of crucial states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh this week is a severe blow to the BJP’s Hindu-right agenda. The party was stoking communal divisions, but the extreme rhetoric appears to have backfired. This setback has made many analysts rethink BJP’s chances of winning in next year’s general elections.In 2014, Prime Minister Modi led his party to a landslide with promises to transform living standards of ordinary Indians. Modi, however, was constantly abroad in his first year, busy being a global statesman. When he returned to New Delhi after one such visit, Indian media even headlined: ‘Modi Visits India’.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/modis-himalayan-marathon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Modi's Himalayan Marathon</a>, Om Astha Rai <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/oli-modi-launch-arun-iii/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Oli-Modi launch Arun III</a>Prime Minister Modi was the first Indian leader to visit Nepal in 17 years when he came to Kathmandu in 2014. Since then he made two more visits, including pilgrimages to Janakpur and Muktinath this year, televised live to Indians preparing to vote in state elections.However, Modi’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy turned out to be a curse for Nepal because of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/aftershocks-of-the-blockade/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inhumane five-month Blockade in 2015</a> that stopped energy and essential supplies as well as urgent earthquake relief at the border.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/One-To-Many/unexpected-move-at-crucial-time,581" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blockade blues</a>, Bidushi Dhungel<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Autopsy of a blockade</a>, Editorial“We have to analyse how India’s policy on Nepal changes depending on whether the BJP or Congress is in power in New Delhi, and be prepared for it,” cautions Nepal’s former ambassador to India, Bhekh Bahadur Thapa.Under Modi’s powerful National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, India’s Intelligence Bureau (IB) called the shots in Nepal rather than the other spy agency, RAW.This election was a referendum on Modi, and the Indian electorate has reminded him that they prefer better living standards to slogans of populist Hinduism.But ironically in Nepal, the BJP defeat coincided with the Koirala faction in the Nepali Congress opting to take Nepal back to being a Hindu state. If the secular Indian National Congress does come back to power next year, it could be ideologically opposed to a Koirala Congress.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/campaigning-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Campaigning in Nepal</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/The-deadline/modifying-india-nepal-ties-through-modi,315" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Modi-fying Indo-Nepal ties</a>, Damakanta Jayshi

India Watching from Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d63f9c7e80680e031472jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1020"/><figcaption>Minister of Foreign Affairs Pradeep Kumar Gyawali and Indian Ambassador to Nepal Manjeev Singh Puri sends off India PM Narendra Modi, who was in a two-day state visit to Nepal, at Kathmandu Airport on Saturday. Pic: RSS</figcaption></figure>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrapped up his two-day whirlwind visit to Nepal on Saturday, flying from the plains to the mountains, worshipping at famous shrines, meeting politicians, and giving four rousing speeches. But observers said the visit was high on symbolism, but not much on substance.By offering prayers at the Janaki temple, Muktinath and Pashupati, Modi has been able to woo Hindu voters ahead of India’s general elections next year. He has also sent across a message to critics at home that his ‘neighbourhood first’ policy is not failing.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/campaigning-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Campaigning in Nepal</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-political-pilgrim/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A political pilgrim</a>, Om Astha RaiModi was campaigning in Nepal — to woo voters at home, and also to restore Nepal-India relations badly bruised by the Blockade.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6429c7e80680e031473jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2400"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But what did Oli gain? He perhaps got Modi’s promise that New Delhi will not create trouble for his government, and will support him even if Maoist Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal parts ways. He has also established himself as a national leader in Province 2 where he was widely despised.However, observers note, Oli has lost much of the political capital he had made out of standing up to India. He has lost the nationalist credentials he garnered during the Blockade and elections. Oli is a Modi-fied man.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/modis-himalayan-marathon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Modi's Himalayan marathon</a>, Om Astha RaiModi’s visit to a shrine near the China border was a message to Beijing: Kathmandu is still within New Delhi’s sphere of influence. Modi also persuaded Oli to felicitate him on behalf of Nepalis in Janakpur and Kathmandu despite widespread resentment among most Nepalis for the blockade.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6459c7e80680e031474jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="800"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Early this week, a group of civil society members met with Foreign Affairs Minister Pradeep Gyawali, urging the government to felicitate Modi only on the government’s behalf. Bibeksheel Sajha party put up black banners at its headquarters, saying Nepalis have not forgotten the blockade yet. On social media, Nepalis asked Modi to apologise for what they say was a crime against humanity.But neither Modi nor Oli paid any attention to what Nepalis were saying and went ahead with the program. Instead, police tore down banners at Bibeksheel Sajha and arrested students staging a hunger strike to put pressure on Modi to say sorry to Nepal.After two days of political meetings and pilgrimages, Modi has been able to send across multiple messages: he cares for Hindus, is loved by not just Indians but also Nepalis, Kathmandu is closer to New Delhi than to China and Nepal-India ties have been reset.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6489c7e80680e031475jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="814" height="528"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>However, except a reiteration of commitment to push forward Kathmandu-Birganj railway, inland waterway and agriculture and a few token grants, Modi’s Nepal visit has yielded no substantial results.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dam-it-its-all-about-the-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dam it, it's all about the water</a>, Om Astha Rai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/oli-modi-launch-arun-iii/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Oli-Modi launch Arun III</a>When Foreign Affairs Minister Gyawali was in Janakpur early this week to take stock of preparations for Modi’s visit, he told journalists that railway, waterway and agriculture agreements will be signed in Kathmandu. But there was just another understanding on these issues, but not a single agreement. The two PMs did lay the foundation stone of Arun III by switching on a remote in Kathmandu, but that project has been struggling to get going for ten years.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d64b9c7e80680e031476jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="900"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Modi began his second day by flying to Muktinath, a sacred Hindu-Buddhist shrine at an altitude 3,710m. Clad in a red downjacket, he performed a special puja at the holy site,  where he is believed to have meditated as a young pilgrim in 1979.Trekkers were barred from going up to and descending from Thorung La, a popular pass for hikers, for security reasons. Modi wanted to visit this temple near the China border and  Janakpur where he arrived on a direct flight from New Delhi on Friday.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d64e9c7e80680e031477jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="682"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This was his third visit to Nepal in four years, and he had wanted to do this pilgrimage during the 2014 SAARC Summit. But the Nepali Congress government at the time had refused to allow Modi to make the side trip, fearing that it would polarise Nepalis at a time when the country was gearing up to promulgate the new Constitution.Analysts say Modi took that rejection as a personal affront, and tried to prevent Nepali leaders from pushing through the Constitution in September 2015 citing Madhesi resentment. He also imposed a five-month blockade on Nepal, which was devastated by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake.In the wake of the Indian blockade, Prime Minister K P Oli had played the nationalism card to the hilt, signing a trade and transit treaty with China reducing Nepal’s dependence on India. An alliance between his UML party and the Maoists won a near two-third majority, riding the nationalism wave.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6509c7e80680e031478jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="682"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But Modi seems to have been able to charm Oli out of China’s embrace, inviting him to New Delhi last month, and visited Nepal at Oli’s invitation just five weeks later.Modi was not expected to apologise directly for the hardships created by the blockade. But in every speech he made in the past two days he praised the Nepali people for their resilience after the earthquake, and for conducting three elections last year to set a new federal democratic structure in place. Modi left with many soundbites: “I am not a Prime Minister, I am a Pilgrim Minister.” Or “Nepal and India are not just two countries, they are two democracies.”Only time will tell if his charm offensive this time has worked, like it did in his 2014 address to Parliament.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6539c7e80680e031479jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1080" height="743"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>

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