<figure><img width="1500" height="1153" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141152/636d02e79c7e80680e0a36a6jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>WHO IS WHO? President Bidya Devi Bhandari, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, Nepal Army Chief Prabhu Ram Sharma, Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana, House Speaker Agni Sapkota and Deputy Mayor of Kathmandu Hari Prabha Khadgi at Indra Jatra this week. </figcaption></figure>More than two months after Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deuba-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">took office</a> to lead a five-party coalition, he has not even been able to form a complete Cabinet. He was thought to have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-denouement/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">amassed a lot of experience</a> in coalition bargaining during his previous five tenures as prime minister.
But this time, he is having a difficult time untangling the knots within knots within the alliance. First, he has had to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/old-wine-in-old-bottle-in-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">divide up ministerial portfolios</a> among his coalition partners which turned out to be a major hurdle.
After the government was formed in mid-July, Deuba’s Nepali Congress (NC) and the Maoist Centre (MC) divided up the powerful finance, energy, home and law ministries among themselves. He then appointed a loyalist to be state minister of health, and on Wednesday he had to hurriedly appoint Narayan Khadka as foreign minister to represent Nepal at the United Nations General Assembly. Khadka was named, sworn in by the president, assumed office and departed for New York all within 12 hours.
The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-is-delaying-nepal-cabinet-expansion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ministerial appointments had been stalled</a> because Upendra Yadav of the Janata Samajbadi Party had wanted the post, which he has held twice before, for himself. However, Deuba appears to have finally got all four parties who want their members in the Cabinet to agree on a quota: eight each of the NC and MC, and 6 each for the JSP and the UML (US) of Madhav Kumar Nepal.
However, this still leaves the question of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/who-gets-what/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">which party gets which of the remaining ministries</a>. Predictably, the JSP and the UML (US) want the ministries with the biggest budgets: education, agriculture, transport and physical infrastructure. Since this is going to be a coalition that will oversee elections in 2023, the parties all want ministries with either power, or money, or both.
A Cabinet meeting on Tuesday decided abruptly to recall 12 ambassadors, including those to the US, UK, India and China appointed by KP Oli when he was prime minister. All are political appointees, and among the envoys being recalled is Deuba’s own mother-in-law Pratibha Rana in Tokyo.
Analysts say one reason for this purge of ambassadors is to offer plum posts for further bargaining to mollify <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/they-fail-we-fall/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">coalition partners</a> not satisfied with their allocated ministerial portfolios. Deuba also has to contend with ministership demands from within his own NC, especially his rival Ram Chandra Paudel’s faction.
There has been outrage and ridicule in social media and from commentators about Prime Minister Deuba adding ministers in installments. Former prime minister Oli, who was ousted by Deuba, has been the most scathing in his criticism.
The prime minister’s job is not easy. He had to suspend Parliament in the middle of the budget session in July so that he could pass an ordinance amending the Constitution to allow parties to split if they commanded only 20% of the membership of their parliamentary party. But that ordinance, which needs to be ratified by Parliament within 60 days, has now become an albatross around Deuba’s neck.
Madhav Nepal of the UML (US) on whose behalf <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-post-breakup-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the party split ordinance</a> had been introduced so he could legally break away from Oli’s UML, is now worried that if it is not ratified his new party will not have legal standing. Nepal is also nervous about a writ filed in the Supreme Court by Oli, and if a verdict makes his party split unconstitutional.
Yadav of the JSP, meanwhile, wants the ordinance scrapped before Cabinet expansion so that disgruntled members of his own party who do not get their preferred ministerships do not break away.
Coalition members had said Cabinet expansion would happen on Wednesday, but negotiations appear to have stalled because of Madhav Nepal and Upendra Yadav wanting different things for their own partisan reasons.

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Government in installments

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141144/636d00bb9c7e80680e0a35f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1460" height="1086"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba took office nearly two months ago, but aside from five ministers he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-is-delaying-nepal-cabinet-expansion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">has not been able to set up a full Cabinet</a>.It is not for the lack of trying: he needs to balance disparate demands of coalition partners who want their rewards for backing him. The second Covid wave may be waning, and Kathmandu Valley lifted its three-month lockdown on Wednesday, but the economy and development are at a standstill.But that seems to be of little concern to personalities in the parlours of power whose eyes are set on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/they-fail-we-fall/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">grabbing important portfolios</a> ahead of the 2023 elections so they can build up war chests, as well as command the government and security apparatus.Staking their claims to Cabinet positions are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/old-wine-in-old-bottle-in-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Madhav Kumar Nepal</a> who launched his own party, the CPN (United Socialist) on 25 August, and whose defection in July led to the collapse of the K P Oli government, and paved the way for Deuba to become prime minister for the fifth time.Deuba also needs to pacify other members of the five-party alliance, including his own Nepali Congress (NC), where rival factions need to be placated ahead of his party’s general convention in November so that he can counter rivals for presidentship.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-denouement/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deuba</a> has to decide whether it is more important to pacify dissidents like Ram Chandra Poudel, or dangle carrots in front of members supporting Bimalendra Nidhi’s candidature for president of the NC.The Maoist Centre (MC) is also demanding its share, and not just a pound of flesh. The MC’s Pushpa Kamal Dahal complained publicly that he was under “tremendous stress” because of demands from many of the party’s 49 members for ministerships. “I wish I could make all 49 MPs ministers, but there are only 7 slots,” an exasperated Dahal told a gathering last month.Then there is the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) which, besides its own ministerial candidates, is also putting pressure on Deuba to retract the ordinance he used to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-post-breakup-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">allow Madhav Nepal to split off from the UML</a>.That ordinance allowed the Mahanta Thakur faction to also break away from the JSP because it lowered the constitutional threshold of parliamentary party membership for a formal split. The JSP now fears more dissidents may leave the party.Two lengthy meetings of coalition leaders this week in Baluwatar failed to agree on the ministerial lineup. The NC and MC have divided up the most important ministries between themselves. Deuba already has his loyalists in the home affairs and law ministries, and the state minister for health. The Maoists have finance and energy. The two also want to keep foreign affairs, defence, and information.The JSP and United Socialists will have to make do with remaining ministries, and are haggling over the more lucrative ones. Deuba’s problem is that the Constitution only allows 25 ministries in government, and his aides say the partners are working on a compromise but a deal “may take a few more days”.There are also demands from within coalition members. Dahal has to placate comrades from the conflict days. Even the JSP has not been able to finalise its list in order to strike a Mountain-Madhes balance. The remaining member of the alliance, Rastriya Janamorcha has only one MP and has said it does not want to be a part of the government.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/from-the-fire-into-the-frying-pan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deuba</a> is working on a quota of 5-7 portfolios for Madhav Nepal’s United Socialists, five more ministries for the Maoists and the JSP, and five more for his own NC. And with that he will have hit the limit for Cabinet size. Negotiations within the coalition are expected to drag on.

Who gets what?

<figure><img width="800" height="478" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfddd9c7e80680e0a0c0ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Leaders of Oli-led UML gather for a photo after a Standing Committee meeting on 24 August. Photo: PRADEEP GYAWALI/TWITTER</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s Election Commission on Wednesday evening officially recognised and certified Madhav Kumar Nepal’s UML (Socialist) and Mahanta Thakur’s Loktantrik Samajwadi (LSP) parties. Nepal’s disagreement with K P Oli ended up <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-takes-1-step-forward-2-steps-back/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">splitting Nepal’s largest party</a>,  even though Oli has managed to woo back a dozen or so of the most influential Nepal-backers. In almost identical but reverse symmetry, Thakur had sided with Oli, and that too ended up splitting his JSP so that he had to form a new one. The registration of two new political parties has taken the total number of political parties in Nepal to 97. However, the way political leaders including <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deubas-long-and-winding-road/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Prime Minister Deuba</a>, and Oli when he was head of government, bent constitutional rules to suit their short-term power games does not bode well for Nepal’s democracy, and future governance. Earlier on Wednesday, 59 lawmakers from the UML had identified themselves in favour of the UML (Socialist) at the Election Commission, while 14 MPs from the JSP were verified for the LSP. <figure><img width="800" height="473" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfddf9c7e80680e0a0c0bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Madhav Kumar Nepal and other leaders arrived at the Election Commission on Wednesday to verify for the Nepal-led UML (Socialist) party. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The two new entities were able to split from their mother parties after Prime Minister Deuba of the centrist Nepali Congress (NC) <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/old-wine-in-old-bottle-in-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bypassed the Constitution with an ordinance</a> last week allowing political parties to split with only 20% support from the Central Committee and the parliamentary parties.To do this, Parliament had to be adjourned despite a crucial budget debate. But he needed to go through with it to accommodate Nepal’s group in his five-party alliance government as a reward for mutinying against Oli, and bringing down his government in June.Most political moves have something to do with elections in mind, and these power dynamics are also dictated by polls. Some see Deuba’s move to split Nepal’s largest party, the UML, as a shrewd move ahead of polls scheduled for 2023.But Sher Bahadur Deuba also got badly exposed for hypocrisy. In 2020, he had spoken out vehemently against <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-pm-oli-goes-it-alone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">K P Oli’s attempt to pass a similar ordinance</a>, and his ordinance was sharply criticised across the political aisle, including from within his own NC. These new circumstances will not only impact how the UML and JSP will move forward, but have far-reaching consequences for Nepal’s political and parliamentary processes. Cabinet expansionIt has been 40 days since he assumed office, but Deuba seems to be in no particular hurry to expand his Cabinet beyond just the four ministers he has from the Maoists and his own NC. However, we have word that he is working behind the scenes, trying to divide up ministerial positions, balance competing demands from his five-party alliance that propelled him to prime ministership <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deuba-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">for the fifth time</a>.  <figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfde29c7e80680e0a0c0cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal attend newly-appointed Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's oath of office in July. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>There is no doubt that his ordinance move was meant to facilitate his ally Madhav Nepal’s participation in government. NC leaders admit that Deuba will move to fill the Cabinet quickly now that the UML split is official.  "We had been waiting for Madhav Nepal," says NC joint general secretary and close Deuba confidante Prakash Sharan Mahat, “the cabinet should now be complete within the next couple of days.” UML (Socialist) leader Veduram Bhusal says that although there has not been a formal decision to join Deuba’s government, the party will remain in the coalition.  “Madhav Nepal played a significant role in forming the current government, and the government is even stronger now that our party has been officially recognised,” he said. Parliament serves a full term In July, Deuba received 165 votes in Parliament to pass the floor test, including from 22 lawmakers from the Nepal faction of the UML and surprisingly, from the entire pro-Oli Mahanta Thakur faction within the JSP.  That Deuba got that support beyond the required simple majority of 138 votes increased the likelihood that Parliament will after all be able to serve its full term after <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/supreme-court-puts-nepal-politics-back-on-track/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oli dissolved it twice</a> amid fierce infighting within his party. Possible UML reunification The UML was established in 1990 after the unity of two communist parties and had split once before in 1997 only to be reunited three years later.  So, there is still a slight possibility that history will be repeated. Indeed, as Madhav Nepal moves forward with his rump party, Oli has also been planning his next political move.  The former prime minister has been stepping up party activities standing shoulder to shoulder with his enemies and staunch former Madhav Nepal allies like Bhim Rawal, Astalaxmi Shakya, Surendra Pandey, Ghanshyam Bhusal, Yogesh Bhattarai, Gokarna Bista, and Raghuji Pant. These gentlemen, and one lady, obviously saw their electoral prospects would be brighter if they remained in the original UML with Oli. New electoral alliances Besides negotiations on government formation, leaders of the Maoist (Centre), UML (Socialist), and JSP have already begun to explore the possibility of forming an electoral alliance ahead of the polls in 2023.  In fact, political analyst Shyam Shrestha believes that Mohan Baidha and Netra Bikram Chand factions of the Maoists could also join the alliance if Madhav Nepal’s party “adopts a slightly more revolutionary path”. Considering the similar ideological backgrounds of leaders like Upendra Yadav, Baburam Bhattarai, Ashok Rai, Mahendra Rai Yadav, and Rakam Chemjong, a ‘socialist’ alliance indeed looks possible —at least on paper.  However, the implosion of the ambitious UML-Maoist (Centre) merger into the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) that barely lasted three years has made leftist leaders wary of forging similar marriages of convenience. Says Giriraj Mani Pokhrel of the Maoists (Centre): “The UML and the Maoist (Centre) have both learned that unity is only possible if all parties involved are on the same page regarding political, ideological and organisational issues, and that such a meeting of minds lasts.” Transliteration by Shristi Karki from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125597">Himal Khabar original</a> in Nepali.

Nepal’s post-breakup politics

<figure><img width="640" height="893" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d07139c7e80680e0a5f9cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>At 75, Sher Bahadur Deuba is Nepal’s prime minister for the fifth time in 26 years -- joining the ranks of other serial prime ministers Surya Bahadur Thapa and Girija Prasad Koirala. That fact alone shows that the structural defects in Nepali politics remain intact, so politicians can keep returning to power without learning from, and atoning to, past mistakes.Deuba first became prime minister of a coalition government under similar circumstances in 1995 after the Supreme Court overturned the decision to dissolve Parliament by Manmohan Adhikari, who was leading a minority UML government.Since then, Deuba has led the country through key moments in Nepal’s history: during King Birendra’s reign, after King Gyanendra’s coup, in interim governments after the peace accord in 2006, and during the first federal elections in 2017 under the new Constitution.But Deuba’s long political career is replete with mis-steps and controversy.He must have had a sense of déjà vu as he challenged K P Oli’s leadership, since he himself dissolved Parliament during his second term in 2002, after which King Gyanendra sacked him for being ‘incompetent’.Deuba was then dismissed by his Nepali Congress (NC), which led him to found a breakaway faction. The same kind of power struggle that brought down the UML also plagued his party: first with GP Koirala and currently with Ram Chandra Paudel as the NC prepares for its convention.Deuba was in power when he waged war on the Maoists, who had placed a bounty, dead or alive, on his head. The fact that he now shares power with Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre proves the adage that there are no permanent enemies in politics.In 2005, after his third tenure, Deuba was arrested and sentenced to two years in prison for corruption, but was released after the court dismissed the case.After the 2017 election, Deuba handed over prime ministership to K P Oli. But even while Oli fought off the leadership challenge from the Dahal-Nepal combine, Deuba did not join them till earlier this year. It must have been Deuba’s destiny to bookend Oli’s term as Prime Minister and succeed him.Deuba’s fifth term is already off to a shaky start, and the choice of Pampha Bhusal and Janardan Sharma from the Maoist Centre in powerful ministries shows the kind compromises he has made with Dahal.Deuba also has a month to face a floor test in the House. If he can get 136 votes out of 271 seats, he can govern till elections in 2023. If he cannot, then Nepal has to go for early elections in six months. In May, the anti-Oli alliance under Deuba’s leadership had the support of 149 lawmakers — 61 from his own NC, 49 from the MC, 23 members of the UML Nepal faction, and 12 from the Yadav-Bhattarai faction of the JSP. The 23 votes of the Nepal faction will be crucial for Deuba, and some Nepal loyalists know that the UML will split if they vote for Deuba. But party insiders say there is now too much bad blood for Oli to offer Nepal the olive branch.Most Nepalis, while glad that the uncertainty in the UML has ended, are dismayed that the parties could find no one more promising than Deuba to lead the country. Deuba’s first task is to bring his disparate Cabinet members to make up for time that the Oli government squandered in dealing with the Covid-19 health and economic emergency, obtain vaccines to prevent a third wave, and deal with a disastrous monsoon season.They do not have high hopes.

Shristi Karki

Deuba.5

<figure><img width="2016" height="1186" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d06e69c7e80680e0a5f8djpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>UML's Madhav Kumar Nepal and Sher Bahadur Deuba during the unstable coalition politics of the mid-1990s, when both were rising in influence within their parties. Photo: MIN RATNA BAJRACHARYA</figcaption></figure>On Monday, Nepal's Supreme Court restored the House of Representatives that Prime Minister KP Oli had dissolved for the second time on 22 May. It then <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-court-orders-deuba-to-succeed-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ordered the Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba to be installed as the next Prime Minister</a>. Sher Bahadur Deuba has now been appointed Prime Minister for the 5th time and preparations are already underway to form a new cabinet of ministers. Maoist Centre’s Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been tasked to finalise ministerial portfolios with Deuba while JSP has called a meeting of the Central Executive Committee today to decide on the ministers. In his address to the nation on Tuesday afternoon, outgoing Prime Minister Oli said that his party would accept the verdict but delivered a pointed rebuke to the Supreme Court ruling, including its decision to stop any action against UML dissidents, claiming that the move would undermine the multi-party system and democracy. “Such misinterpretation of the constitution for the fulfilment of certain aspirations of certain individuals has, in fact, served to amend the constitution regressively. Our democratic system will have to pay the price for the political implications of this decision,” he said. He added: “I had the people’s mandate but the order of the Supreme Court was in Sher Bahadur Deuba’s favour.” <figure><img width="1440" height="960" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d06e89c7e80680e0a5f8ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Deuba, leading a five-party alliance of 146 MPs — from his own Nepali Congress, the Maoist Centre, as well dissident factions of the JSP and the UML — had filed a writ petition on 24 May after President Bidya Bhandari <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/2-ex-pms-vie-to-be-nepal-pm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">thwarted claims of a House majority to form the next government</a>.The Supreme Court verdict by Chief Justice Cholendra JB Rana and his bench was the apotheosis of Oli’s years-long <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/court-debates-nepal-pm-olis-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">attempt to hold on to power</a>, characterised by bitter infighting within the erstwhile NCP, ultimately leading to his estrangement from the party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal as well as from comrades within his own UML.Ahead of his appointment, Deuba welcomed the Supreme Court’s order in a press release put out on Tuesday morning, which stated that the decision had put the constitution—which had veered off-course— back on track, and reinstated the faith and trust of the people in an independent judiciary.“Rather than taking the court’s decision as a matter of personal win or loss, the decision must be used for the betterment of our democracy, constitution, and our country and its people,” it read.Meanwhile, UML lawmaker Bijay Subba in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling said the right to appoint the Prime Minister lies only within parliament and blamed lawmakers for taking politics to the court.“The constitution clearly states the rights of the legislative, executive, and the judiciary. The court does not have the right to select the Prime Minister. It is against the principle of separation of powers,” he said.Subba also deemed the court’s ruling to stop any action against the UML dissidents unconstitutional, saying, “In a party system, per the spirit of the constitution, parliamentarians must align with the party whip.”Responding to the accusation, the Supreme Court said that it was the president’s responsibility to appoint the prime minister. But in case of an unconstitutional action, it will take steps to rectify them. <figure><img width="1440" height="960" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d06eb9c7e80680e0a5f8fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img width="1440" height="960" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d06ee9c7e80680e0a5f90jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="1440" height="960" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d06f19c7e80680e0a5f91jpeg.jpg" alt="">Now, the newly-appointed Prime Minister must seek a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives within 30 days under Article 76(4) of the constitution. Any member of the house who backs PM Deuba shall not be penalised for not voting along party lines, the Supreme Court also ordered. If Deuba gets a majority, he cannot be subjected to any future no-confidence motion and will remain Prime Minister for the remainder of the tenure of the House and preside over the next election. But if he fails to get a vote of confidence, the President, on Deuba’s recommendation, will dissolve the House once again and set a date for elections to be held within the next six months, per Article 76(7) of the constitution. Monday’s Supreme Court verdict also barred any disciplinary action against the UML dissidents who were a part of Deuba’s alliance. However, Madhav Kumar Nepal, who led the dissident UML faction in support of Deuba’s Prime Ministership bid, withdrew his support from the opposition alliance following the court ruling. Oli had been trying to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/making-up-is-hard-to-do/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">patch things up</a> with Nepal before the verdict, with working groups from both sides having come up with a 10-point deal to address differences within the UML. But between the appointment of Deuba as the new prime minister and Nepal withdrawing his support from the opposition, the fate of UML and its unification remains undecided.

Reinstate, remove, repeat

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b94129c7e80680e06f1dbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s Supreme Court has been overturning Prime Minister K P Oli’s moves to remain in office one by one, even as it began crucial hearings on his <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/president-endorses-parliament-dissolution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/president-endorses-parliament-dissolution/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFcfwSAhJcN3o2YRfc09cycuI6fLg">second dissolution</a> of the Lower House on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGn9_SCp2XoTEVx1Y1q1wFMB0pVQQ">22 May.</a>Lawyers presenting their arguments at the Court’s Constitutional Bench on Wednesday and Thursday went beyond just <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGyc7SBPAkNZ8daTmk8Xf4bMvaGpA">questioning Oli’s moves</a>, they blamed President Bidya Devi Bhandari for complicity.And beyond calling for a restoration of the House, they also demanded that Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress (NC) replace Oli, since he had amply demonstrated a majority in the House.The final battle in the court is the culmination of a long-drawn power struggle between Oli and comrades within the UML and his former NCP, even while the country faces an emergency with the coronavirus pandemic.President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/2-ex-pms-vie-to-be-nepal-pm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/2-ex-pms-vie-to-be-nepal-pm/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEfhpSOMM9zO0aa-OOH9pv0unohLw">rejection of Deuba’s claim</a> to lead the government two months ago had prompted 146 politicians from a five-party alliance to file writ petitions in the Supreme Court on 24 May.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b94159c7e80680e06f1dcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1698" height="1272"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana and Justices Deep Kumar Karki, Mira Khadka, Iswar Prasad Khatiwada and Ananda Mohan Bhattarai will give a final verdict after a stipulated 32 hours of hearings over the next two weeks.That ruling will determine whether the House is reinstated and if Deuba becomes prime minister for the fifth time, or if Oli continues as prime minister to oversee early elections in November. If the House is reinstated, the five-party alliance could also choose some other prime minister.Like Deuba, other leaders of the anti-Oli alliance have also been prime ministers before: Pushpa Kamal Dahal (twice), Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal and Baburam Bhattarai.The signs do not look good for Oli whose latest setback was the Supreme Court’s decision on Tuesday reversing his <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-government-reshuffle-during-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-government-reshuffle-during-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEucL_TDQmSld75IHcEemzl7UaY9g">appointment of 20 ministers</a>earlier this month, saying it was unconstitutional for a caretaker prime minister to do so.In fact, Water Supply Minister Anil Jha of the JSP was being welcomed in his constituency in Rautahat on Tuesday when word came from Kathmandu that the Court had directed all Cabinet ministers to stop working. And in a show of defiance, Oli told deposed ministers they didn’t need to vacate their official residence because “something will come up”.In the midst of a pandemic, Nepal's governing Cabinet is now down to Oli and four ministers. The third health minister in a year was among the 20 who had to step down this week after just 19 days in office.The five-party opposition alliance decided to put pressure on Oli by launching street protests starting on Thursday. Speaking to a gathering of editors on Thursday, the NC's Deuba said: "The prime minister and president colluded at midnight to dismantle democracy and the constitution, that is why we have formed this alliance. We will mobilise the public if needed, to fight against a return to authoritarianism."<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b94189c7e80680e06f1ddjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="720" height="480"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b941a9c7e80680e06f1dejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b941d9c7e80680e06f1dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="642">Last week, the Supreme Court overturned a Cabinet decision to amend national park regulations so that Yeti Holdings got a license to build a hydroelectric plant in Langtang. The Court also over-ruled an attempt by Oli to allow ministers to automatically become ambassadors, without having to be graduates. Then, Oli’s loyalist chief minister in the UML was voted out of the Gandaki provincial government last week by a coalition of opposition parties.At the Constitutional Bench, the petitioners and the government’s defence lawyers have been allocated 15 hours each to present their case, after which four lawyers from an amicus curiae will be given two hours to give their opinion.Central to the argument will be whether President Bhandari was fair in rejecting claims by both Deuba and Oli that they had a majority in the House to form a new government. On 21 May, Oli claimed he had the support of a majority in the House that he had himself dissolved earlier, by counting the total membership of his own UML and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) — even those in both parties who had defected to Deuba’s camp.Deuba presented President Bhandari with 149 actual signatures of MPs from the NC, Maoist Centre (MC) and dissidents from the UML and JSP. Only 136 votes are needed for a majority based on the current House strength.On Wednesday and Thursday, petitioners at the Constitutional Bench argued that Article 76 (5) of the Constitution clearly stated that if a prime minister cannot demonstrate he has the confidence of the House, the president has to call on any member who can do so to form the next government.Firebrand lawyer Sambhu Thapa argued: “Why does the president require any other proof other than the 149 signatures? Who gave the president the authority to choose her own prime minister, or take away the right of House members to vote? This is a right that was earned after a long political struggle.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b941f9c7e80680e06f1e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b94229c7e80680e06f1e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="642"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b94249c7e80680e06f1e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640">Last week President Bhandari’s office responded to a show cause from the Court with a written explanation that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHluN7S9Tlzf7kz7vsDIVxJidoQig">Supreme Court did not have jurisdiction</a> over the Office of the President. The President’s advisers have said that she took the decision to dissolve the House because the support of some MPs was claimed by both Deuba and Oli.In his clarification letter to the Supreme Court, Oli argued that the Court had no role in a purely political matter.In Thursday’s Constitutional Bench hearings, former attorney general Raman Shrestha argued that the President was claiming a right over the Supreme Court similar to what Nepal’s kings had during the monarchy days.“This debate in the Court is not about Oli or Deuba becoming prime minister, it is about whether a Constitution drafted by an elected Constituent Assembly will remain or not,” Shrestha said.Another lawyer Badri Bahadur Karki argued that a decision on whether Deuba had a majority support of the House or not was not up to the president. “The president invoking Article 76(5) was for the formation of an alternative government, not to reinstate the same government,” Karki argued, adding in English, “the president should have told Oli, you are no more prime minister.”Oli, who has survived many earlier cliffhangers, probably expects the Supreme Court to reinstate the House, and he is planning to demonstrate a majority by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-pm-oli-back-on-saddle/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-pm-oli-back-on-saddle/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEA1z9mRfljFFGu7HLVClQWlwriyg">wooing back dissident UML MP</a>s and the JSP floor test. Oli will need at least 114 of the total 121 members of the UML as well as at least 20 from the Mahanta Thakur faction of the JSP <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/parliamentary-arithmetics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/parliamentary-arithmetics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFHTBsAGOKmQ3mM0AWKIqW3ykM03w">to prove a House majority</a>.However, the tenor of the court hearings this week prove that they will not be satisfied with the restoration of the House — they want President Bhandari’s decision to disqualify Deuba’s claim to be prime minister revoked.

Oli's gambit

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee429c7e80680e09ae16jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>All photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>An alliance of five political parties and factions opposed to Prime Minister K P Oli’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolution of the House and call for early elections </a>have approached the Supreme Court with a writ petition to have the move overturned. The five who went to the Supreme Court on Monday included the Nepali Congress (NC), Maoist Centre (MC), the Yadav-Bhattarai faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and dissidents from Oli’s own UML, as well as the 146 signatories.PM Oli's UML immediately evicted 11 rebel members including Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal and Bhim Rawal from the party, and asked 12 others for a clarification within 24 hours. The writ petition asks the Court to rule that since Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/2-ex-pms-vie-to-be-nepal-pm/">staked his claim</a> to form the new government with a majority in Parliament, he should be appointed prime minister. It also asks that since the House dissolution was un-constitutional, it should be reinstated. All signatories from the five groups were present at the Court to register the petition, led by Deuba, MC Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, UML’s Madhav Kumar Nepal and JSP’s Upendra Yadav, and Durga Poudel of the Janmorcha. However, only 23 of the 26 who were originally with the Nepal faction signed. <img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee449c7e80680e09ae17jpeg.jpg" alt="">Meanwhile, the main JSP led by Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato has decided to join K P Oli’s election government after being assured of seven ministerial portfolios. The party took the decision after the Cabinet got President Bhandari’s seal of approval on an ordinance passing a bill that would grant citizenship by descent to children of Nepali parents — a long-standing demand of the Mahdesi community.Although Oli and his party had vehemently opposed the bill last year, saying that it would allow Indians to marry Nepalis and for their children to be citizens, it appears that he has agreed to it now to save his government. The other JSP demand for the release of MP Resham Chaudhary, who has been detained for the massacre of policemen Tikapur in August 2015, has not yet been met.The latest political crisis in Nepal in the middle of a raging Covid-19 second wave started when President Bidya Devi Bhandari gave parties in Parliament 21 hours on Wednesday to stake their claim to form the next government because Prime Minister Oli said he could not get majority support from MPs.  <img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee469c7e80680e09ae18jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee489c7e80680e09ae19jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="960" height="641" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee4a9c7e80680e09ae1ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="750" height="500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee4c9c7e80680e09ae1bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee4f9c7e80680e09ae1cjpeg.jpg" alt="">However, after the NC, MC and the JSP and UML factions collected 149 signatures, Oli rushed to Shital Niwas to put forward support of all members of his UMl and the JSP, even the ones who had sides with the opposition coalition. This was seen by many as a violation of the constitution.President Bhandari on Saturday 2AM dissolved Parliament and called fresh elections in November, because she said neither side had fulfilled the requirement to form a new government.In the past two days, the prime minister and president have come under blistering attack from not just the opposition, but a cross section of civil society and media commentators. The student wing of the NC has been staging small protests in the capital despite the lockdown, burning Prime Minister Oli and President Bhandari in effigy.  <figure><img width="960" height="637" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee519c7e80680e09ae1djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A student group trying to burn the prime minister and president in effigy were apprehended by police on Sunday. Photo: Amit Machamasi</figcaption></figure>Nepali Times discussed recent political developments with Nepal’s politicians. <img width="113" height="164" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee549c7e80680e09ae1ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"There was no choice but to dissolve parliament" Niru Pal, CPN (UML)</h2> PM Oli was not able to get a vote of confidence per article 76 (4) of the constitution, and as such, Parliament was not able to come up with a solution. The opposition had been setting up constant roadblocks against PM Oli, all the while failing to establish a majority to form a government. Consequently, a government could not be formed as per Article 76 (5) of the Constitution either. We got word that MPs from our party had signed in favour of Sher Bahadur Deuba to become prime minister as if this were an independent political system. However, 11 of them have issued a statement alleging misuse of signatures. Therefore the government had no choice but to dissolve Parliament.I find some absurd and unnecessary criticism of PM Oli. Those critics are also well aware that the President is not an executive, and had no grounds to block the recommendation of the caretaker Prime Minister. The President would have made the same decision even if it were Sher Bahadur Deuba in PM Oli’s position. She has decided based on the spirit of the constitution. <h2>"An Oli-led election will self-destruct" Ganesh Shah, Maoist Centre</h2> PM Oli’s loyalists and his opponents have become polarised. The opposition was unable to take unified and effective action against PM Oli’s unconstitutional move, which is the result of his ambition and arrogance. The first parliament dissolution was a blow to our Constitution, but this dissolution might be its death knell.  <img width="172" height="248" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee559c7e80680e09ae1fjpeg.jpg" alt="">Civil society and the backers of the Constitution and democracy must fight against this political regression with a unified front. The legal process will not be enough — Parliament must be re-established through political initiative. The chances of an election taking place are slim. Moreover, an election under Oli’s leadership will be self-destructive. Any election at this point must be held only after a re-instated Parliament elects a new Prime Minister. <img width="170" height="246" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee569c7e80680e09ae20jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"The PM always wanted to dissolve parliament" Rachana Khadka, CPN (UML)</h2> PM Oli always wanted to dissolve parliaments and he did — twice.  Even after the Supreme Court reinstated the lower House in January, all of his recent political moves showed he was going to do it again. The decision to dissolve a Parliament in which he once held a majority is ironic. It goes against the spirit of the Constitution.Moreover, the legitimacy of the President’s office has also come into question. We have a system of checks and balances to ensure that our political institutions hold one another accountable if mistakes are made. As such, the office of the President does not exist to do the prime minister’s bidding.Hundreds of Nepalis are dying due to Covid-19 every day. The primary focus at this time should have been to save lives. Dissolving the parliament at a time like this is like dancing over the pyres of Nepalis. The state elections in India contributed to the spread of the virus over there. We should have learned our lesson from our neighbours. <h2>"Parliament dissolution is constitutional" Ashok Vyanju, President, Municipal Association</h2> This is the result of the inability of a democratically elected institution to facilitate nation-building, inter-political coordination and balance. The dissolution of Parliament and announcement of elections came after it was not possible to form a government constitutionally. The decision is therefore absolutely constitutional. The election will  make it possible to pursue a fresh mandate after our political problems are resolved. <img width="149" height="215" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee579c7e80680e09ae21jpeg.jpg" alt="">Some have wrongly questioned the possibility of an election during a pandemic. India, South Korea, Japan, and other countries successfully conducted elections in the middle of the pandemic. We must be able to combat the virus and resolve our political problems simultaneously. <img width="176" height="250" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee589c7e80680e09ae22jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"Legal and political measures must be followed" Dila Sangroula, Nepali Congress</h2> The incumbent Prime Minister had to take a vote of confidence within 30 days or resign as per article 76 (3) of the constitution. Even then, the NC, MC, and JSP coalition along with the Nepal faction of the UML had collected 149 signatures to form a new government following the president’s directive.However, the signatures to appoint Sher Bahadur Deuba the Prime Minister were considered illegitimate. The subsequent decision to dissolve parliament at midnight was unconstitutional, undemocratic and reactionary. Legal and political countermeasures must be pursued to undo it.The announcement of mid-term elections during a pandemic, when Nepalis are dying due to a scarcity of oxygen and ventilators, is nothing but a political drama staged by Oli in an attempt to hold on to power.  Why are we enabling this instead of trying to save lives? <h2>"A free and fair election must be ensured" Mohan Shrestha, RPP</h2> The two major Communist parties failed to deliver on the promises made when they were elected into government. NC and RPP are not to blame for their failure. As such, it is better to go to the polls than to continue like this. All of our political parties should establish an understanding as we move forward, and a free and fair election must be ensured. <img width="117" height="168" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee599c7e80680e09ae23jpeg.jpg" alt="">We are in favour of the election, and an official statement from the RPP will come soon. However, we have no involvement in the polarised politics on both sides, and will not participate in any anti-Oil protests. West Bengal and the United States conducted elections during the pandemic. We must follow all safety protocols pertaining to the pandemic and do the same.  <img width="318" height="376" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee5a9c7e80680e09ae24jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"We must form a new party" Asta Laxmi Shakya, CPN (UML)</h2> After the Supreme Court overturned the NCPO, we came back to UML. But (PM Oli) did not give us any importance. He is still ignoring us. We cannot rely on Oli, we have to forge a new path. We have to form a new party, and not prolong this uncertainty.

Political ball now in Nepal’s Supreme Court

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86329c7e80680e067839jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>All photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>An alliance of five political parties and factions opposed to Prime Minister K P Oli’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolution of the House and call for early elections </a>have approached the Supreme Court with a writ petition to have the move overturned. The five who went to the Supreme Court on Monday included the Nepali Congress (NC), Maoist Centre (MC), the Yadav-Bhattarai faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and dissidents from Oli’s own UML, as well as the 146 signatories.PM Oli's UML immediately evicted 11 rebel members including Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal and Bhim Rawal from the party, and asked 12 others for a clarification within 24 hours. The writ petition asks the Court to rule that since Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/2-ex-pms-vie-to-be-nepal-pm/">staked his claim</a> to form the new government with a majority in Parliament, he should be appointed prime minister. It also asks that since the House dissolution was un-constitutional, it should be reinstated. All signatories from the five groups were present at the Court to register the petition, led by Deuba, MC Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, UML’s Madhav Kumar Nepal and JSP’s Upendra Yadav, and Durga Poudel of the Janmorcha. However, only 23 of the 26 who were originally with the Nepal faction signed. <img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86359c7e80680e06783ajpeg.jpg" alt="">Meanwhile, the main JSP led by Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato has decided to join K P Oli’s election government after being assured of seven ministerial portfolios. The party took the decision after the Cabinet got President Bhandari’s seal of approval on an ordinance passing a bill that would grant citizenship by descent to children of Nepali parents — a long-standing demand of the Mahdesi community.Although Oli and his party had vehemently opposed the bill last year, saying that it would allow Indians to marry Nepalis and for their children to be citizens, it appears that he has agreed to it now to save his government. The other JSP demand for the release of MP Resham Chaudhary, who has been detained for the massacre of policemen Tikapur in August 2015, has not yet been met.The latest political crisis in Nepal in the middle of a raging Covid-19 second wave started when President Bidya Devi Bhandari gave parties in Parliament 21 hours on Wednesday to stake their claim to form the next government because Prime Minister Oli said he could not get majority support from MPs.  <img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86389c7e80680e06783bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b863a9c7e80680e06783cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="960" height="641" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b863c9c7e80680e06783djpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="750" height="500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86409c7e80680e06783ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86429c7e80680e06783fjpeg.jpg" alt="">However, after the NC, MC and the JSP and UML factions collected 149 signatures, Oli rushed to Shital Niwas to put forward support of all members of his UMl and the JSP, even the ones who had sides with the opposition coalition. This was seen by many as a violation of the constitution.President Bhandari on Saturday 2AM dissolved Parliament and called fresh elections in November, because she said neither side had fulfilled the requirement to form a new government.In the past two days, the prime minister and president have come under blistering attack from not just the opposition, but a cross section of civil society and media commentators. The student wing of the NC has been staging small protests in the capital despite the lockdown, burning Prime Minister Oli and President Bhandari in effigy.  <figure><img width="960" height="637" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86449c7e80680e067840jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A student group trying to burn the prime minister and president in effigy were apprehended by police on Sunday. Photo: Amit Machamasi</figcaption></figure>Nepali Times discussed recent political developments with Nepal’s politicians. <img width="113" height="164" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86479c7e80680e067841jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"There was no choice but to dissolve parliament" Niru Pal, CPN (UML)</h2> PM Oli was not able to get a vote of confidence per article 76 (4) of the constitution, and as such, Parliament was not able to come up with a solution. The opposition had been setting up constant roadblocks against PM Oli, all the while failing to establish a majority to form a government. Consequently, a government could not be formed as per Article 76 (5) of the Constitution either. We got word that MPs from our party had signed in favour of Sher Bahadur Deuba to become prime minister as if this were an independent political system. However, 11 of them have issued a statement alleging misuse of signatures. Therefore the government had no choice but to dissolve Parliament.I find some absurd and unnecessary criticism of PM Oli. Those critics are also well aware that the President is not an executive, and had no grounds to block the recommendation of the caretaker Prime Minister. The President would have made the same decision even if it were Sher Bahadur Deuba in PM Oli’s position. She has decided based on the spirit of the constitution. <h2>"An Oli-led election will self-destruct" Ganesh Shah, Maoist Centre</h2> PM Oli’s loyalists and his opponents have become polarised. The opposition was unable to take unified and effective action against PM Oli’s unconstitutional move, which is the result of his ambition and arrogance. The first parliament dissolution was a blow to our Constitution, but this dissolution might be its death knell.  <img width="172" height="248" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86489c7e80680e067842jpeg.jpg" alt="">Civil society and the backers of the Constitution and democracy must fight against this political regression with a unified front. The legal process will not be enough — Parliament must be re-established through political initiative. The chances of an election taking place are slim. Moreover, an election under Oli’s leadership will be self-destructive. Any election at this point must be held only after a re-instated Parliament elects a new Prime Minister. <img width="170" height="246" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86499c7e80680e067843jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"The PM always wanted to dissolve parliament" Rachana Khadka, CPN (UML)</h2> PM Oli always wanted to dissolve parliaments and he did — twice.  Even after the Supreme Court reinstated the lower House in January, all of his recent political moves showed he was going to do it again. The decision to dissolve a Parliament in which he once held a majority is ironic. It goes against the spirit of the Constitution.Moreover, the legitimacy of the President’s office has also come into question. We have a system of checks and balances to ensure that our political institutions hold one another accountable if mistakes are made. As such, the office of the President does not exist to do the prime minister’s bidding.Hundreds of Nepalis are dying due to Covid-19 every day. The primary focus at this time should have been to save lives. Dissolving the parliament at a time like this is like dancing over the pyres of Nepalis. The state elections in India contributed to the spread of the virus over there. We should have learned our lesson from our neighbours. <h2>"Parliament dissolution is constitutional" Ashok Vyanju, President, Municipal Association</h2> This is the result of the inability of a democratically elected institution to facilitate nation-building, inter-political coordination and balance. The dissolution of Parliament and announcement of elections came after it was not possible to form a government constitutionally. The decision is therefore absolutely constitutional. The election will  make it possible to pursue a fresh mandate after our political problems are resolved. <img width="149" height="215" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b864a9c7e80680e067844jpeg.jpg" alt="">Some have wrongly questioned the possibility of an election during a pandemic. India, South Korea, Japan, and other countries successfully conducted elections in the middle of the pandemic. We must be able to combat the virus and resolve our political problems simultaneously. <img width="176" height="250" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b864b9c7e80680e067845jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"Legal and political measures must be followed" Dila Sangroula, Nepali Congress</h2> The incumbent Prime Minister had to take a vote of confidence within 30 days or resign as per article 76 (3) of the constitution. Even then, the NC, MC, and JSP coalition along with the Nepal faction of the UML had collected 149 signatures to form a new government following the president’s directive.However, the signatures to appoint Sher Bahadur Deuba the Prime Minister were considered illegitimate. The subsequent decision to dissolve parliament at midnight was unconstitutional, undemocratic and reactionary. Legal and political countermeasures must be pursued to undo it.The announcement of mid-term elections during a pandemic, when Nepalis are dying due to a scarcity of oxygen and ventilators, is nothing but a political drama staged by Oli in an attempt to hold on to power.  Why are we enabling this instead of trying to save lives? <h2>"A free and fair election must be ensured" Mohan Shrestha, RPP</h2> The two major Communist parties failed to deliver on the promises made when they were elected into government. NC and RPP are not to blame for their failure. As such, it is better to go to the polls than to continue like this. All of our political parties should establish an understanding as we move forward, and a free and fair election must be ensured. <img width="117" height="168" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b864c9c7e80680e067846jpeg.jpg" alt="">We are in favour of the election, and an official statement from the RPP will come soon. However, we have no involvement in the polarised politics on both sides, and will not participate in any anti-Oil protests. West Bengal and the United States conducted elections during the pandemic. We must follow all safety protocols pertaining to the pandemic and do the same.  <img width="318" height="376" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b864d9c7e80680e067847jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"We must form a new party" Asta Laxmi Shakya, CPN (UML)</h2> After the Supreme Court overturned the NCPO, we came back to UML. But (PM Oli) did not give us any importance. He is still ignoring us. We cannot rely on Oli, we have to forge a new path. We have to form a new party, and not prolong this uncertainty.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4829c7e80680e0966b3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="369"/><figcaption>Residents of the Musahar settlement in Baluwa Tol of Siraha's Dhangadhimai Municipality.</figcaption></figure>The fervour of the local elections three years ago had taken sway over the eight districts of Province 2. Sangihya Samajbadi Party and Rastriya Janata Party had eclipsed the dominant Nepali Congress and Communist forces, during the polls.Out of the 136 local constituencies in the province, the two Tarai-based parties had claimed 51 of them, Rastriya Janata Party had turned victorious in 14 while the Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum had swept 24 municipalities.The upward trend of supporting the Madhesh-based parties continued into the election for the House of Representatives as well as the provincial assembly elections. Of the 32 constituencies contested, the parties had won more than half, claiming 19 seats. Similarly, they won 55 of the 107 seats in the provincial election.But three years after the elections, the people of Province 2 feel let down and have started to lose faith in the home-grown parties, as they have failed to perform and deliver.The parties representing the Tarai have always blamed the centre for not taking their issues seriously, and for a sluggish development of the region.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4849c7e80680e0966b4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="750" height="346"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The Madhesh-based parties had rejected the constitution because their demands had not been met. India had thrown its weight behind the bloc, imposing a border blockade on Nepal that lasted for six months.Tarai has seen sporadic protests calling for the rights of the Madheshi communities. During the different political movements that took place after the peace process, 124 people lost their lives.Nepali Congress General Convention representative, Bajrang Nepali says that compared to the older established parties, the Tarai-based parties have been more successful within a short period, with the foundation laid by a series of movements.But it is only during the times of demonstrations and elections that the people matter to the politicians, locals complain.“When the polls arrive, politicians come with the promise of land and shelter,” says Shreeram Sada of Dhangadhi Municipality, Siraha. “It’s been three years since the elections took place, they haven’t fulfilled their promises. The wells are drying up, water is scarce.”Mahadev Saha, who has a PhD in Political History of Nepal and is currently the Head of Softech College based in Lahan, says that the people had participated in the Madhesh movements with certain aspirations, but that they’re frustrated over how things have turned out.“There were some legitimate interests of the Madhesh that have not been provided in the Constitution. The desires of Madhesis have not been addressed in any way,” he says.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4859c7e80680e0966b5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="287" height="260"><figcaption>Mahadev Saha, PhD</figcaption></figure>Saha adds that Tarai-based parties had an opportunity to prove themselves, but they squandered it, and the corruption and red tape at the Singha Darbar have trickled down to the provincial governments.The leaders of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP)— formed after major Madhesh alliances, Samajbadi Party and Rastriya Janata Party merged—concede that they have not been able to meet the people’s aspirations.JSP’s Central Committee Member Manish Suman admits that even though his party was elected to power, the problems of the people have remained intact.“In the past, when Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, Girija Prasad Koirala, Lokendra Bahadur Chand, Surya Bahadur Thapa or KP Oli was Prime Minister, there was no impact in the rural areas. The context is the same even today when we are in the government,” says Suman. “There’s no point berating the others. The onus was upon us to live up to the commitments made to the people.”About one year from now, the local level elections are due and in just 12 months, the provincial and federal parliament elections are to be held.It is too early to predict which party will dominate in the upcoming polls in Province 2. But cadres and intellectual groups are steeped in political conversations.While JSP is seen as a unified bloc representing the Tarai by Kathmandu, wandering through the streets of Province 2, one is likely to observe a different picture. Even though the two parties did merge, locally, they continue to operate as two different parties, much like the Nepal Communist Party, which has now disintegrated.Suman agrees that even though an official merger has happened, the party is yet to become one ‘spiritually’. Executive member of JSP, Shailesh Chaudhary echoes similar thoughts. The unified party continues to experience polarisation over the details of forming a federal government.In the past elections, the Tarai-based parties raising Madhesh-centric issues were a draw for young voters. But unable to perform, the parities now suffer from an erosion of public trust.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4879c7e80680e0966b6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">According to political analyst, Mahadev Saha, despite leading the provincial government, the parties have failed to deliver the people’s mandate. He alleges their politics have been confined to supporting allies and gaining personal benefits.Journalist Chandra Kishore, from Birganj says that Madhesh-based parties have been unable to maintain their rapport with the public and that the centre had cashed on it. “The leaders of JSP themselves have become redundant. They have ideological conflict, which is unattractive to the public.”Former Treasurer of Federation of Nepali Journalists, Sheetal Sah agrees. “The political parties within JSP did not win the election because they were pro-active, it was just that the political atmosphere was in their favour. And now that they haven’t delivered on their commitment, they have become unpopular.”It is still too early to analyse how the rift within the UML will potentially impact the Madhesh-centric parties. Critics of PM Oli have pointed out in the past that he had lost his hold over Tarai because of his prejudices during the Madhesh movement.“Oli is making an effort to revive his image in Madhesh,” says Gangalal Yadav of Siraha. The Oli-led UML faction is wooing local leaders and thinkers from other parties into their fold, who have the potential to lure the voters.Other than that, the construction of postal roads, connecting the highways to the district headquarters, and the Kosi-Marine Diversion Irrigation Project are some of Oli’s attempts to influence development in the Tarai.Before 2007, Province 2 was a Nepali Congress (NC) stronghold. With the rise of the Tarai-centric parties, the NC fortress was stormed and influential leaders from Madhesh, like Mahantha Thakur, JP Gupta, Sharat Singh Bhandari quit Congress to join the regional parties, which chipped away at the Nepali Congress ‘vote bank’.With the lure of the Madhesh-based parties waning, is NC likely to revive its influence once more? The perspectives remain divided.JSP Executive Member Shailesh Chaudhary views the internal tussle within NC as the fundamental problem even though it could be an alternative to JSP. He says, “People do not have anger towards [Nepali] Congress. The internal conflict and groupism are what is concerning.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce48a9c7e80680e0966b7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="541" height="476"><figcaption>Bajrang Nepali</figcaption></figure>However, NC leaders themselves do not appear confident. NC leader of Jaleshwor Mahottari, Bajrang Nepali says that despite voters turning towards NC, the party has no mechanism to attract the new generation, the group that forms the biggest chunk of voters.“People are positive towards [Nepali] Congress, but have they been able to attract the new generation? [Nepali] Congress has to find a way out to resolve this,” says Nepali.Journalist Chandra Kishore says self-sabotage is nothing new within the party, “Congress is a threat to itself,” he says, adding that Prime Minister Oli will attempt every possible way to win over the Madhesh vote bank.“The government has already started to deploy the state mechanisms to Madhesh, its impact might be reflected in the election,” he adds.Nepali Congress may, however, benefit from the fissures within the Communists. “If the Communist had not broken up, they would have been a tough competition for Nepali Congress. The fraction within the Communists has made them vulnerable, and [Nepali] Congress will benefit from it,” says Sah.And there are others hoping to reap benefit from the situation. CK Raut had won nationwide popularity, and a strong backing in the Tarai before signing a deal with the Oli government in March 2020 to honour Nepal’s sovereignty. He has been busy building his political influence in the region since, it will be interesting to see how his presence will tip the voting scales.But political analysts say Raut might not be able to garner much attention given the relatively new presence of his party. “Raut was capturing the attention of the youth who were losing interest in the Madhesh-based parties,” Sah says. “ But after he signed the pact with the government against his secessionist movement, he might have lost much of his fan-following in Madhesh.”

The Politics of Province 2

<img width="800" height="436" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce44d9c7e80680e0966a0jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>There are just so many layers of party and factional interests, alliances and dalliances, marriages of convenience and messy divorces, egos, ambitions, and personal vendetta involved, that it is difficult to delve beyond daily headlines about who stabbed whom in the back today.We must start with the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/">central protagonist</a>, the man everyone seems to love to hate, Prime Minister K P Oli. He has proved all pundits wrong by surviving both medically and politically. This does not look like a man who has two kidney transplants—he appears stronger than ever.  He has outlasted <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/">relentless pressure</a> from the combined strength of rivals within the NCP and a constant media broadside, to unseat him. When cornered, he has used nationalism,  divided and ruled, used and discarded former comrades, and even dissolved the House and threatened elections to get his way.Oli is wily, but a statesman he is not. Had he been, he would have found other ways than <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/">full-frontal attacks on rivals</a>, concentrating instead on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/its-broke-fix-it/">providing leadership</a> on issues that really matter to Nepalis – <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-state-of-disillusionment/">jobs, inflation, education, health and Covid impact</a>. He has spent all his time and energy running circles around <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/">Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal.</a>If anyone wanted to dismantle Nepal’s Communist movement, no one would have done a better job than Prime Minister Oli. He <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/unity-with-the-maoists-did-not-work-out/">cracked open the NCP,</a> then he got to work on his own UML, weeding out the disgruntled Nepal faction. Oli might have been seeking revenge on Nepal, but by sidelining him, he has effectively splintered the UML as well.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/efforts-to-cobble-back-the-uml/">Efforts to cobble back the UML</a>, Mukesh Pokhrel <img width="640" height="343" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce44f9c7e80680e0966a1jpeg.jpg" alt="">Oli has become such a central figure that as factions of the four main parties jostle to find coalition partnerships, they are all divided depending on whether they support the prime minister or not. First, his UML itself is divided, with the Nepal faction behaving like an opposition party. Oli’s strategy now is to woo away Nepal loyalists like Jhalnath Khanal, whom President Bidya Devi Bhandari went to meet at his home last week.The Maoist Centre has also lost its senior comrades to Oli’s Cabinet: Ram Bahadur Thapa, Top Bahadur Ryamajhi and others. The party removed them from MP-hood on Tuesday, but cannot seem to decide what to do next. A Nepali Congress (NC) Central Committee meeting this week called for the resignation of Prime Minister Oli. But the meeting started five hours late because of a disagreement between Sher Bahadur Deuba and Ram Chandra Poudel on whether or not to join a coalition government led by Oli.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-crucible-of-fragile-coalitions/">A crucible of fragile coalitions</a>, Shekhar Kharel <img width="640" height="322" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4529c7e80680e0966a2jpeg.jpg" alt="">This indecision in the main opposition NC has put the third and fourth parties, the Maoist Centre and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), in a bind. They do not have the numbers by themselves to challenge Oli. However, there is discord within the JSP also. And the cause is, once again, whether to support Oli or not. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/">Party chair Mahantha Thakur</a> and Rajendra Mahato have publicly stated that they are inclined to work with Oli’s UML. But the JSP’s other leaders Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai are vehemently opposed.Because of the JSP’s swing vote in the House, Thakur has emerged as the kingmaker in coalition negotiations. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/">Maoist Centre</a> and the NC need the JSP to unseat Oli, and Oli himself needs the JSP to form the next government if the UML loses the support of the Maoist Centre.   <img width="640" height="399" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4549c7e80680e0966a3jpeg.jpg" alt="">However, even though Dahal threatened last week to pull the rug from under the UML, his Maoist Centre’s Standing committee meeting decided that time was not ripe to do so. The Maoists have 54 MPs, and if they withdraw support for the UML, which has 121 seats, Prime Minister Oli will have to seek a vote of confidence in the House. Oli will need 138 MPs on his side to win the vote, and will court the JSP with 34 seats or the NC with 63 seats. Dahal knows that if he withdraws support there is every likelihood that either Deuba or Thakur will side with Oli to form an election government. And Maoist leaders know that early elections will be disastrous for them.With all four parties tangled over their support and opposition to Prime Minister Oli, therefore, Nepali politics is hopelessly knotted up.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/house-of-cards/">House of cards</a>, Editorial

jsp

Government in installments

Who gets what?

Nepal’s post-breakup politics

Deuba.5

Reinstate, remove, repeat

Oli's gambit

Political ball now in Nepal’s Supreme Court

Political ball now in Nepal’s Supreme Court

The Politics of Province 2

Untangling the knots