Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s three-day official visit to India starting Wednesday is being keenly watched in Kathmandu and these borderlands of the Tarai.
Relations between the two asymmetric South Asian neighbours at the moment are neither ‘chilly’ nor ‘warm’. Things have got a lot more cordial since UML Prime Minister K P Oli was replaced by a Maoist-Nepali Congress coalition led by Sher Bahadur Deuba in 2022.&nbsp;
The visit comes as Prime Minister Dahal tried to keep his shaky 9-party coalition intact, by even getting a presidential pardon this week for an MP convicted for the killing of policemen in Kailali in 2015.&nbsp;
Disillusionment with Nepal’s three mainstream parties has manifested in the rise of the independent RSP, while the RPP is trying to promote ex-king Gyanendra as a symbol of national unity, stability and the revival of a Hindu kingdom, hoping to ride the Hindutva wave in India.
Indeed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aggressive Hindu-right agenda is having a ripple effect across the border. Despite his BJP’s defeat in the Karnataka polls earlier this month, Modi seems to be on a roll because of India’s buoyant economy.
It has become somewhat of a tradition for a new prime minister in Nepal to fly to New Delhi on his first pilgrimage to pay his respects to rulers there, even if it is someone who is prime minister for the third time.
Questions have been raised about whether Dahal should necessarily &nbsp;follow this practice, but Dahal nevertheless cancelled what was to be his first visit to China in March to attend the Boao Forum in Hainan.
Dahal has to finely balance the need to appease Indian leaders to extract concessions on river projects, air routes, infrastructure assistance, while at the same time playing to the gallery back home by not kowtowing too much.
The chronic problem in India-Nepal relations has been a trust deficit in both capitals about each other. What does Nepal expect from India, and what does India want to do in Nepal? Bilateral relations should not depend on which leader or party is in power in New Delhi or Kathmandu, it should have continuity and be determined by what will benefit citizens of both countries.&nbsp;
In 2014, India had appeared to change its approach to Nepal by appearing magnanimous during Prime Minister Modi’s first visit, but the goodwill he built collapsed with the blockade and bilateral relations chilled as non-political actors started directing policy.
It will not work if one set of leaders in Nepal sanctifies India, while another vilifies it. This might serve their immediate political interest, but will do long-term harm to mutual ties. Leaders are also fickle and erratic in their stance: Prime Minister Dahal is the same person who during the conflict threatened to wage a ‘tunnel war’ against India.
Dahal’s visit to Delhi also comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tension in the region with growing Sino-US polarisation, India’s involvement in the Quad and the danger of Nepal being forced to choose sides between its neighbours. Nepal will need to deploy all its diplomatic skills to play its role in this new world stage.
India’s rulers may also need to ponder why the traditional close ties with Nepal have become frayed. True friends talk things over, and it is in the interest of both neighbours to rebuild trust. New Delhi strategists appear sanguine that whatever the noise on social media, its tactics in Nepal are working.&nbsp;
But many Nepalis still feel that India acts like Big Brother and pushes its weight around, promises a lot and delivers little. Dahal needs to take this up at the highest levels during his visit and obtain tangible results to reboot relations to at least 2014 levels.
Nowhere is the people-to-people relations between India and Nepal felt as keenly as in the Tarai. The open border, close cultural and family links and trade bind the two countries together.&nbsp;
However, even here there is a feeling that India is unfeeling. Every year, poorly-designed road, railway and flood control embankments in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh inundate Tarai towns. Every monsoon the Kathmandu media suddenly becomes ultra-nationalistic, laying all the blame on Indian state governments.&nbsp;
The Indian media also whips up anti-Nepal feelings by holding Nepal responsible for ‘unleashing water from its dams’ even though Nepal does not have any dams to let water out from and the border barrages are controlled by India.
Indeed, the national media (and increasingly social media posts) on both sides of the border are largely to blame for undermining the friendship between the people and governments of the two countries. Media should instead focus on evidence that embankment-building worsens water-logging in farms and towns on both sides of the border.
These floods are bound to get worse if the deforestation, sand mining and quarrying of the Chure Range resumes. Nepal will not just be exporting boulders and aggregates, but also increased sediment that will worsen floods and further lower the water table in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.&nbsp;
In 2010, President Ram Baran Yadav raised the issue of Chure conservation during his visit to New Delhi, but the demand in India for raw material to feed its construction boom is so great that Nepali contractors with political patronage want to plunder the fragile Chure ecosystem.
Even when relations between New Delhi and Kathmandu were strained in the past, there was a belief that people-to-people bonds were strong. That narrative is now increasingly frayed. Indians and Nepalis are needlessly harassed by each other’s border security.&nbsp;
Nepal-India relations have always been defined by how well or badly governments in their capitals get along. Rather than Indian or Nepali people, leaders of the two countries determine the state of relations.
How well neighbouring countries get along is determined by geography, history, culture, trade, politics, religion. And those factors have kept ties across the border stable all these years, but Nepalis in the Tarai are asking: does New Delhi determine its policy towards Nepal by seeing how they will be affected, or by maintaining its influence on the movers and shakers in Kathmandu?
The marriage of Ram from India and Sita from Nepal are often cited to prove how close Nepal-India bonds are. The Buddha was born in Nepal but got enlightenment in India. But when leaders talk about Janakpur-Ayodhya, or Lumbini-Bodh Gaya, they seldom take into account the people who live there.
Bilateral relations should not be limited to periodic summits between the leaders of India and Nepal, they need to translate into action on the ground that makes the lives of the people of the borderlands more convenient and sustainable through better connectivity and environmental safeguards.&nbsp;
Chandra Kishore is a Birganj-based political commentator. His monthly column BORDERLINES appears in Nepali Times every month. &nbsp;@kishore_chandra

Chandra Kishore

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Nepal PM to India to reboot ties

At the annual Nepal Power Summit in Kathmandu on 18-19 April, officials called on India to allow Nepal to export power at real-time prices, not just in the day-ahead market. Also discussed was a need for more flexible guidelines on market access for Nepal’s electricity to India which currently buys power on a project-to-project basis, pointedly boycotting those built by Chinese investment or contractors. India’s interest in regulating Nepal’s rivers is not new, but with the Himalaya becoming a geopolitical and climate hotspot, its strategic interest in regulating river flow has grown.&nbsp; Climate models show that the hydrology of Himalayan rivers will change dramatically in the coming decades, with peak water in the 2030s, and low flow levels in the dry season thereafter. With 70% of the annual discharge on the Ganga flowing down from rivers in Nepal, 75% of it in the four monsoon months, storage projects in the mountains will be ever more important. Because of this, New Delhi would like pliant politicians in place in Kathmandu that will not obstruct its plans to ensure future water supply, and given current geopolitical tensions, this also means keeping the Chinese out.&nbsp; Ever since Sher Bahadur Deuba became prime minister for the fifth time in 2021, he has fast-tracked a slew of projects in which Indian companies are involved, including the West Seti reservoir project that has languished for 20 years mainly because of Indian objections to Australian and Chinese investment. Most recently, Indian National Hydroelectricity Power Corporation (NHPC) Limited is in talks to be awarded the 480MW Phukot Karnali Hydroelectric Project in Kalikot jointly with Nepal’s state-owned Vidyut Utpadan Company Limited with a share ratio of 51% to 49%. The project will likely be launched during Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s state visit to India in May. India’s NHPC has already been granted licenses for West Seti and Seti River-6 projects, and is also eyeing another 1,902MW megaproject on the Karnali.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023050603050_10fc6c82b0d995c39b388d8d8628365ea5e2299a1f4d474e2c2d5b7f01d37d83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2023050603050_10fc6c82b0d995c39b388d8d8628365ea5e2299a1f4d474e2c2d5b7f01d37d83" data-rendition-name="original" width="3776" height="2424" loading="lazy" alt="West Seti"> <figcaption>Sushil Bhatta of Investment Board Nepal and Abhay Kumar Singh of India's NHPC, after signing an agreement to develop the 760MW West Seti and 460MW Seti River 6 projects in 2022.</figcaption> </figure>  In fact, across Nepal, Indian companies are building hydropower projects which will add a combined total of 4,000MW to the grid, three of which were rushed through only in the past year. Three more Indian projects are in the pipeline.&nbsp; Why the sudden renewed Indian interest in Nepal’s rivers? And what is the hurry? The answer lies in the need to plan for the decades ahead when water is going to be an even scarcer commodity in the Indo-Gangetic plains than it is now because of climate change, increased industrial, agricultural and household consumption. Energy analysts say that although India’s interest seems to be in renewable energy from hydropower to fulfil its decarbonisation commitments, exports of power from Nepal is only projected at $800 million in the next three years, which will only be a tiny percentage of the 1,600 billion kWh that India generated in the last fiscal year.&nbsp; And although power demand is expected to rise with rising incomes, industrialisation and increasingly intense summer heat waves in the plains, India’s long-term interest is in reservoir projects to store monsoon water in Nepal’s rivers to reduce monsoon flood risk and keep rivers flowing in the dry season. And New Delhi has not tried to hide its distaste for any Chinese involvement in these projects.&nbsp; Hydropower Investment and Development Company Nepal (HIDCL) in which the government is a majority shareholder informed the Investment Board Nepal in February that it was withdrawing from the export-oriented 762MW Tamor Hydropower project.&nbsp; CEO Arjun Kumar Gautam is upfront about why: “We cannot sell electricity generated with Chinese involvement in the Indian market.” Tamor was one of the two projects agreed upon during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Nepal in October 2019. Soon after, Investment Board Nepal (IBN) signed up China Construction to build the project after completing a feasibility study. The HIDCL now wants to null the agreement with the Chinese contractor and bring in a new contractor more amenable to the Indians. Meanwhile, India’s state-owned <a href="https://sjvn.nic.in/">Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam</a>, which is involved in a cascade of projects on the adjoining Arun River to generate a total of 2,000MW, is said to be aggressively lobbying top Nepali officials to also build Tamor. Besides the 900MW Arun 3, Satluj was awarded the Lower Arun by the K P Oli-led government in 2021 without competitive bidding. Then in May 2022, the Sher Bahadur Deuba-led government suddenly awarded Arun 4 to Satluj (with a 51% share) during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Lumbini.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230506020556_4f38ffb96de37f17c662684914f0b65ab41adaaf98183a073273e88621de480b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20230506020556_4f38ffb96de37f17c662684914f0b65ab41adaaf98183a073273e88621de480b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="666" loading="lazy" alt="Arun 4 agreement"> <figcaption>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba look on as Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam's Nanda Lal Sharma and the NEA's Kulman Ghising exchange MoUs in May 2022 in Lumbini to build the 409MW Arun 4. Photo: RATNA SHRESTHA/RSS</figcaption> </figure>  But even though Satluj is said to be also interested in the 1,061MW Upper Arun, Kulman Ghising of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) says it is building the project. "Upper Arun is our first priority, we are planning to start the construction of the access road," Ghising told us. Arun and Tamor are both in eastern Nepal (see map), but India is also interested in rivers in western Nepal because of the proximity of its main load centres as well as to augment the dry season flow of Nepal’s rivers that flow into the Ganga.&nbsp; There was some hue and cry last year after the Deuba-led government abruptly handed over the 750MW West Seti Dam and Seti River-6 projects to two Indian state-owned companies without competition or transparency. Experts pointed out that Nepal’s Public-Private Partnership and Investment Act 2075 states that there should be competitive bidding.&nbsp; The Seti saga is three decades long. After successive partnerships with Australian, Chinese and private Indian companies fell through, India’s state-owned NHPC finally took the lead. Since the terms of the deal are opaque, many experts question how beneficial the $1.6 billion project that involves building a high dam in the Doti district will be for Nepal.&nbsp; Indian state-owned companies appear to move faster than private Indian companies interested in river projects in Nepal. The GMR Group (Gandhi Mallikarjun Rao) obtained a permit to build the 900 MW Upper Karnali and a Project Development Agreement (PDA) was signed with the IBN in 2014 with plans to start construction in two years after securing funding. The government's latest decision to extend the deadline for the GMR by two years is being challenged in Nepal’s Supreme Court.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023050603054_0b5cc52ed5ece09ac54bf7fd42d663e156bd8a721203fecad4470d449722bfd9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2023050603054_0b5cc52ed5ece09ac54bf7fd42d663e156bd8a721203fecad4470d449722bfd9" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="834" loading="lazy" alt="Indian investment in hydropower in Nepal"> </figure>  Geopolitical games The export-oriented 456MW Upper Tamakosi project finally started production in June 2021 after much delay. But because a part of the Upper Tamkosi was built by the Sino Hydro of China, India refused to buy power from the project during the monsoon surplus last year – even though it was built with NEA investment.&nbsp; One international lender told Nepali Times: “Obtaining an Indian nod before building any big hydropower project in Nepal has now become a must.” Indian pressure manifests itself in its refusal to buy only 364MW of electricity which was recently increased to 452MW. This is the sum total of generation capacity with no direct Chinese involvement. Nepal also cannot sell its power to China as there are no trans-Himalayan transmission lines, and exporting to Bangladesh would need an Indian approval system without giving a free and open market to Nepali electricity, while also rejecting any Chinese involvement. India’s international electricity trade procedure issued in February 2021 prohibits the import of electricity from projects invested in third countries that do not have a bilateral agreement for cooperation in the energy sector. The fact that India does not have an energy cooperation agreement with China has therefore become an excuse, not just to blacklist projects in Nepal with Chinese investment, but even Chinese contractors. India has even stopped the supply of explosives for projects like the Tanahu and Upper Trisuli-1 Schemes being built by Chinese contractors.&nbsp; "Even though there is nothing in writing, India does not want any involvement of the Chinese in any capacity in Nepal's hydropower projects, they even have details of which country is the contractor and where are the machines being used from," explains Ganesh Karki of the Independent Power Producers Association Nepal (IPPAN). India first allowed imports of electricity only from the 24 MW Trisuli and 15 MW Devighat projects, both built by the Indian in the 1960s. But after Deuba signed an agreement on energy cooperation between the two countries in 2022, NEA was allowed to 364MW.&nbsp; Even so, Nepal must renew this export provision every year, which is a bureaucratic hassle. What this essentially means is that if Indian companies do not get licenses for new plants in Nepal, they may not renew the power-selling contract either. Nepali officials have been trying to convince the Indian side that it is in their own best interest if Nepal has a surplus in the coming years. Based on projections of generation capacity, NEA has sent a proposal to New Delhi to export an additional 600MW.&nbsp; The installed capacity of hydropower projects in Nepal has reached 2,400MW and is expected to cross 3,000MW after the completion of more projects this monsoon. Projects with a combined capacity of 3,200MW are under construction and will be completed in the next three years. On the demand side, the average domestic consumption at present is about 1,600MW and is expected to increase only to 2,000MW next year.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023050603054_1ba6d252b58558d3d1263b0f76e3abbfc1c9dd3c019f8d9d47bd8aa415651e3f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2023050603054_1ba6d252b58558d3d1263b0f76e3abbfc1c9dd3c019f8d9d47bd8aa415651e3f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1171" height="834" loading="lazy" alt="Hydropower generation in Nepal"> </figure>  &nbsp; <div class="embed-block"><div class="flourish-embed flourish-chart" data-src="visualisation/13536204"><script src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/embed.js"></script></div></div> &nbsp; <div class="embed-block"><div class="flourish-embed flourish-chart" data-src="visualisation/13535503"><script src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/embed.js"></script></div></div> There are critics who say Nepal should not be exporting power to India at all since it will not make a big dent in the trade deficit, and the $85.8 million it earned last year is negligible compared to the $8.33 billion Nepal earned in remittances.&nbsp; They say the priority should be on increasing electricity consumption in cooking, transportation and industry. At present, 70% of Nepal’s energy is from biomass and only 5% is from electricity.&nbsp; Since most of the electricity in Nepal is from run-of-river schemes in which generation depends on the flow of water in rivers, Nepal will have to continue to import power from India during the peak winter months for the next three years. In the monsoon, though, generation is double of demand, but the Indian quota, inadequate transmission and low domestic demand mean much of this clean electricity is wasted.&nbsp; Dinesh Kumar Ghimire at the Energy Ministry says Nepal is looking to sign a 25-year export agreement with India. "We are preparing a draft for the agreement. If both sides are on board with it, there may be an agreement during the Prime Minister's visit to India.” Edging out China While India is awarded one hydropower project after another in Nepal, China is being edged out. Both Phukot Karnali and Tamor hydropower projects were supposed to be implemented under Beijing’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI) scheme.&nbsp; Last month, Sichuan Wangping Energy Science and Technology gave up its license to build the 235MW Humla Karnali-1 and 335MW Humla Karnali-2 in partnership with a Nepali company. The survey permit for these projects has now been granted to Ruru Hydropower, a Nepali company. The 1,200MW Budi Gandaki reservoir project has been caught in a geopolitical tangle between India and Nepal for the past six years. In May 2017, the Pushpa Kamal Dahal government handed over the project to China’s Gezhouba Group without competition. A few months later in October, the Deuba-led government reversed the decision and said Nepal would build it. Fast forward a year later and the Oli-led government gave Budi Gandaki back to Gezhouba, only for the Deuba-led coalition government in March 2022 to reverse the decision again. Exasperated, the then-Chinese ambassador Hou Yanqi said abandoned diplomatic niceties and said publicly that it was wrong for Nepal to change its decision every time a government changed. Says Ganesh Karki of IPPAN: “We have to conclude that because of India’s stance, it is difficult to get Chinese investment in Nepal’s hydropower. The top political leadership should lobby with India to remove this obstacle.” The hydro of hydropower&nbsp; Nepal’s former energy secretary Dwarika Nath Dhungel is convinced India considers water a strategic commodity, and its emphasis on electricity export hides its real intention to secure water supply in the coming decades.&nbsp; “We in Nepal, on the other hand, have no idea about this, and there is no clarity about our own water and energy policy. In fact, our policymakers are not working in the national interest at all,” he adds. Studies have shown that water scarcity in the Indo-Gangetic plains will increase as Himalayan glaciers dry up, and the groundwater level falls due to over-extraction. And in the monsoon, there is too much water, so the world’s most densely populated region is hit by destructive floods. &nbsp; Building storage dams in Nepal is a win-win-win for India, reducing flood risk, augmenting dry season flow of Nepali rivers that flow across the border, and generating electricity. Nepal will get some export income, but will not benefit much from irrigation since it only has a narrow strip of land in the Tarai, and large tracts of its fertile mountain valleys will be inundated by future reservoirs. “Nepal’s export of a few thousand megawatts will not mean much for India's huge power system with a capacity of around 400,000MW,” adds Dhungel. “What India is fixated on is our water. And that is why it does not want any third parties involved, especially not China.” Former secretary at the Ministry of Energy Anup Kumar Upadhyay on the other hand is all for more Indian investment in Nepal’s hydropower, and does not think there is any ulterior motive. He argues that the model in which Nepal is allowing Indian companies to build projects is beneficial to Nepal in the long term. At present, Indian companies that have received permission to build hydropower plants have agreed to provide about 22% of electricity to the Nepal government for free. And after 25 years, these projects will be fully owned by Nepal. Says Upadhyay: "Whatever projects we are giving to India now, India does not even have the benefit of regular water flow from them, so there is no reason to be suspicious that India has a grand design to control our rivers." Indeed, there are many in Nepal, even those critical of Indian behaviour, who say Nepal cannot choose its neighbours and it might as well keep India happy by ensuring that the river agreements are fair to Nepal as well.

Geopolitics of Nepal’s rivers

<figure><img width="960" height="1280" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1169c7e80680e0d7068jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Kailash Pradhan was one of many independent candidates to run in Sikkim's non-partisan municipal elections in 2021. All photos courtesy: KAILASH PRADHAN</figcaption></figure>Corruption was rife. There was rank opportunism. Service delivery was poor and impunity had become institutionalised. There was environmental degradation everywhere in the mountains. No, we are not talking about Nepal. This is Sikkim, which till 1975 was an independent Himalayan kingdom, and has been a state of India since its annexation. Like in Nepal’s 2022 polls, professionals fed up with the way Sikkim was being governed, and impatient for change decided to contest elections. One of them was architect Kailash Pradhan.  “When I noticed the state of affairs in Sikkim, I felt like an ostrich with its head buried in the sand,” recalls Pradhan. “I was thinking about architecture and beautiful designs, but that was not what Sikkim needed.”  Pradhan studied in Ahmedabad to be an architect and spent time in Zurich as an exchange student. But he always intended to come back and build a life in Sikkim. <figure><img width="853" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a11a9c7e80680e0d7069jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img width="853" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a11e9c7e80680e0d706ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="853" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1219c7e80680e0d706bjpeg.jpg" alt="">Pradhan with fellow candidates from Upper MG Marg (left) and Lower MG Marg (right).“When people asked me if I was going to stay in Zurich, I often wondered to myself what I was going to do there that hadn’t already been done,” Pradhan says.He eventually came back to India, and spent some years in Delhi, being one of the very few Sikkimese architects to work with the government. In the early 90s, he returned to Sikkim, building his own architectural practice.As the years passed, Pradhan became more and more aware of the socio-politics of Sikkim. New Delhi had historically poured money into the geopolitically-sensitive state, with most people benefiting directly from federal grants.There was a lack of transparency everywhere. Sikkim’s nature was being destroyed by an infrastructure spree. Watching all this unfold, Pradhan started feeling a professional restlessness and he took up a job offer in Bhutan where he was witness to Bhutan’s transition from an absolute monarchy to a democracy.  <img width="853" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1259c7e80680e0d706cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="853" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1289c7e80680e0d706djpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="853" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a12c9c7e80680e0d706ejpeg.jpg" alt="">Five years later, he returned to Sikkim with a fresh perspective, inspired to do more activism back home. In 2020, Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang’s government amended the Sikkim Municipality Act, abolishing party-based municipal and local elections.Candidates contesting municipal elections could not be affiliated with any political party, and could not receive direct or indirect support from them. Essentially, candidates for local governments were independent. When municipal elections were announced in Sikkim in early 2021, Pradhan’s friends, including his business partner, approached him to contest the election.“My knee-jerk reaction was to refuse,” says Pradhan, having not been interested in anything political till then. But he was familiar with politics, since his father had been a government employee, and his uncle was active in the anti-Chogyal revolution in the 1970s leading to a referendum that abolished the monarchy.Eventually, Pradhan filed his candidacy and became one of 64 aspirants in two wards of Gangtok Municipal Corporation. Pradhan and his team deliberately did not seek funding from businesses and contractors, conducting a ‘zero-budget’ campaign. <img width="853" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1309c7e80680e0d706fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="853" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1329c7e80680e0d7070jpeg.jpg" alt="">Pradhan with his campaign team and volunteers.“When parties need money they reach out to businesses, and then become crony capitalists, giving rise to oligarchies,” says Pradhan. But supporters would voluntarily support him with cheques for small amounts, food, beer.  By this time, Pradhan was known among locals for stopping the Sikkim government from felling almost 400 trees to make way for new roads. His team had around 25 volunteers: friends who were photographers, graphic artists, filmmakers -- and social media became his medium to reach voters. Pradhan lost in both Gangtok wards in Municipal elections in 2021. The winning candidates belonged to the governing party, even though it had not explicitly thrown its support behind them, as per the rules. “You can take the party out of elections, but you cannot take the party out of voters,” Pradhan explains, admitting that he may not have been able to connect to grassroots voters who may not have had access to his social media outreach.  But Pradhan is encouraged by the people he met and the team he built throughout the campaign. He says, “We connected the most with young people who are much more egalitarian and have much less ego. And while the winners indicated that things have gone back to normal, it was good to see so many independent candidates contesting the election.”Next time, anyone contesting from Sikkim could take a tip or two from Nepal’s own independent mayors elected in 2022, and the independent Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) which rose to become the fourth party in Parliament just five months after it was formed.

Shristi Karki

An architect of a better Sikkim

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e39fbb9c7e80680e0d7007jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"/><figcaption>Self portrait by Smyrna Samten Sherpa.</figcaption></figure>“All of us write songs. All of us make music.”I pause when I hear you say this. I want to say, I do not know anything about music. Instead, I say, tell me more.You carry on: “Playing with thoughts is also emoting. It is not very different from writing a lyric or composing music. It is song-writing and melody-making. Voice is just an instrument after that.”You describe songwriting as a form of storytelling, where one borrows from the conscious as well as the subconscious, like all storytelling.Friends from nowhereThe first time I heard you sing was on Instagram. You were seated on the floor of your room, guitar cradled on your lap, your fringe forming an awning for your face as you sang. The floorboards stretched all the way behind you, racing towards the balcony. Above it, the hills rose, forming a fortress for your room in Gangtok, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/letting-go-of-sikkims-ghost/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sikkim</a>. In my head you were a magician-- your voice, the deepest I had ever heard and your background, surreal.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinas-surge-should-nepal-be-worried/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pandemic</a> had just set in.I think my head draws this image of you from a collage of images I have put together from your social media. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/avoiding-the-quicksand-of-social-media/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Social media</a> allows for that to happen-- you can re-live many moments vicariously. It is what I have done through your stories.Now, sitting across me, you are somehow transported across time and space to a coffee table in a cafe in Kathmandu.The homecoming“If someone speaks two Nepali words or talks about Nepali music, it is like primal instinct, my body and mind react to it.” But you did not realise the real connection until you were in the land, “amongst its people”.You mention <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FB4lfrJLNy4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Jerusha</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-sky-full-of-images/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bartika</a>, Yugal, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/bipul-chettri-back-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bipul</a>. I start to gather fragments of your thoughts on my phone in the form of notes, while my heart busts with questions.In December, you posted a cover of Danny Denzongpa’s Chiso Chiso Hawa Ma, giving the song a life away from the original sound track. I ask what you think of how Nepali audience always want to lay a claim on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/arko-the-nepali-minstrel-from-bengal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali artists from India</a>.“Kathmandu has always been that home to Nepali musicians all across the globe, especially the hills of Kalimpong, Darjeeling, Kuresong and Sikkim. People here have always received them, listened to them, allowing them to teach in schools and explore their creative side. So, it is okay for Nepali people to claim Danny. I think it comes from a place of love and acceptance,” you smile and I do, too. Art is indulgence but also struggleYour parents are proud of you being Dr Smyrna Samten Sherpa. Your father, who placed a guitar in your arms when you were ten and prodded you on to the stage asking you to sing at church, still much prefers to introduce you as a medical professional.So, there is a catch in your voice when we go into how lonely the journey of pursuing art can be, but laugh and say: “I will always have music with me no matter where I am in my life…My parents will always be my parents even if they don’t agree with all that I do-- music has been home too.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/step-by-step-for-rural-health-care-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Step by step for rural health care in Nepal</a>, Aryan Sitaulahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLoRBVZmSlsYou have journeyed from singing in church to performing for a crowd, punctuating it with breaks to process the purpose and to write your own songs. And while music has brought you fame and new friends like myself, you say your real joy has come from being able to perform for children. You call it “the feeling of impartation”.Music is the food to my soul Your grandmother is on the phone with you from Namchi, South <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=4709#.Y7o8tuxBzR0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sikkim</a>. She asks you why you want to leave.You answer: “In pursuit of self discovery”.You assure her by reminding her that you were taught to be like her-- dauntless. That she survived her time, you would too. And so you pack your bags and move to Delhi in search of a hospital job, in search of a life of music, bound to find you.Slowing down can be a good thingYou explain your idea of being Nepali: “The thing about people in Nepal, the hills of Darjeeling, Kalimpong and Sikkim is that they know how to slow down. We use the word ‘laid back’ a lot of times to describe the crowd in our part of the world.”In contrast, you draw a picture of India, where musicians are expected to be perfect, where dinner table conversations revolve around people wanting to be something.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/moving-songs-from-the-boys-next-door/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Moving songs from the boys next door</a>, Sewa Bhattarai“I am sure everyone strives for that balance but with the advent of the internet and with life in a metropolitan I’ve started appreciating the idea of disengaging, slowing down. I think it makes music more human. I see <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1lkroDm3Mo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">phatcowlee</a> pause from time to time, he brings good music from his hiatuses.”I miss being unguardedI have never heard anyone speak of the migration of sound scapes before: “Music is not a genre, it is a feeling”, you explain your understanding of how music is a feeling intertwined with history. “They have a certain theme and they repeat and evolve in other parts of the world as time passes." You draw examples from the blues in the cotton fields and our bards with Sarangi who sang about Mughlan.“Music migrates in that way but it is also a collective consciousness.”Listening to you across the table on a December evening, some things come home to me. That, I am not alone in feeling like an outsider in my own land. And that even when we feel like we are citizens of the world, there is still an ache for home. And that that is why we have music.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-sweet-smell-of-music/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The sweet smell of music</a>, Ben AyersRight now, I hold on to your thoughts: “From teenage angst to something to age wisely with…that is why God has given us music-- to lean on so we age gracefully.Suburban Tales is a monthly column in Nepali Times based on real people (with some names changed) in Pratibha’s life.

Pratibha Tuladhar

Notes from a musician

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111414110/63723c539c7e80680e0c9613jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Many of you pulled me aside at a recent diplomatic soirée to ask if it is a coincidence that on the week that Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) announced his candidacy for elections from Gorkha district, the Indian Air Force also unveiled its brand new Light Combat Helicopter ‘Prachand’. My answer to all of you has been a decisive and definitive: “Umm. Maybe.”There is a precedent for the Indians naming their flying machines after Nepali objects. In the 1960s Air India's Boeing 707s were named after Himalayan mountains like Nanda Devi, Kamet and Trishul. But soon, they ran out of mountains and christened the rest of the 707s after peaks in Nepal: Lhotse, Gauri Shankar, Dhaulagiri, Makalu, Everest and Annapurna.We don’t know if MoFA at the time issued a note verbale (Latin: Diplomatic aide-mémoire filled with expletives) but we suppose not, since there are no historical records of a war breaking out between the two countries at that time.While naming its new indigenously designed chopper, the Indian Air Force did not, strictly speaking, infringe on the Maoist Supremo’s intellectual property because it cleverly dropped the ‘a’ from Prachanda.But it obviously wanted to piggy-back on the formidable, fearsome reputation of The Fierce One. They may also have felt ownership of the name ‘Prachanda’ since they had given Comrade Awesome a safe house in Noida for most of the war years.Be that as it may, this is an opportune moment for MoFA to fire off another note verbale in a generally southerly direction to show that we will not take this blatant plagiarism lying down. We will take it straight in the chin.It also means no one is safe anymore. The nom de guerre of other Nepali guerrilla commanders could similarly be purloined by DRDO.Comrade Ram Bahadur Thapa must be extra vigilant, since his war name, Badal, could be the next to be taken to name India's new ICBM.The name Prachand is quite appropriate for the IAF’s new LCH since, like the protagonist it is named after, the new attack helicopter has a rotor that makes revolutions. It has stealth properties with reduced visual, aural, radar and infrared signatures, which means it can conceal its true intentions, be anywhere and everywhere at the same time, and it is armed to the teeth with misguided missiles.If the Indian military has hit a writer’s block with nomenclature for its future arsenal, Nepal, could unilaterally offer the following names as a gesture of goodwill for India's new weapons systems:Indian Army’s new Main Battle Tank: BalenIndian Air Force’s new Combat Drone: LaldhojIndian Navy’s new Submarine: INS Arzoo

Ass s

Nepalis in India’s arsenal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111414110/63723c339c7e80680e0c9605jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2304" height="1536"/><figcaption>Nearly three years after the outbreak of Covid-19, every day life is mostly back to normal. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>For the first time since it was first detected almost three years ago and ravaged Nepal, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been overtaken by another public health emergency: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/as-covid-abates-nepal-sees-dengue-outbreak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the dengue epidemic</a>.Covid-19 is not gone (even President Bidya Devi Bhandari just had it), and new strains are co-mingling with various serotypes of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dengue-days-are-here-to-stay/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dengue that have officially claimed 39 lives</a> and infected over 30,000 people across Nepal this monsoon. But like the numbers for Covid-19, those are gross under-estimations.As we speak, a new Omicron sub-variant BF.7 which is better equipped to escape antibodies from earlier infections or vaccinations has already spread from the United States to China. Masks, bivalent boosters and avoiding crowds are the most effective prevention methods which only a few follow.Yale University researchers have found <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w30512" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">considerable growth in excess deaths</a> (total deaths in a population in a given period which is above what is normally expected) among anti-vaxers in Ohio and Florida.In fact, the fatality rate seems to have a direct correlation with political belief. The paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research this month showed that excess death rates for American republicans increased from nearly 0% pre-pandemic to 35% by end-2021. The increase for Democrats was only 10%.Similarly, <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2796235#:~:text=Conclusions%20and%20Relevance%20In%20this,had%20received%20a%20booster%20dose." target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">another study</a> published in The Journal of the American Medical Association last month revealed that Covid hospitalisations in 13 US states was 10.5 times higher among the unvaccinated and 2.5 times higher in vaccinated persons with no booster shots.Closer home, Hong Kong saw a disproportionate number of Omicron deaths earlier this year among the unvaccinated elderly. While highly transmissible, the strain was much less fatal among the vaccinated elsewhere.Even in Nepal, which has a full vaccination rate close to 80%, one of the highest in the world, those still being hospitalised with Covid were mostly unvaccinated.“I recently had a girl patient who had lost her parents and a brother to Covid who had not been vaccinated,” recalls Sher Bahadur Pun, a virologist at Teku Hospital in Kathmandu. “There have been one too many unvaccinated patients in my ICU who believed rumours on social media.”In Nepal, as elsewhere, the early days of the pandemic were marked by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-social-media-contagion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rampant misinformation</a>, first about the novel coronavirus itself, stigmatisation of patients and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-health-workers-battle-covid-19-but-also-stigma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">healthcare providers</a> alike. The general public was slow to adopt safety protocols, which contributed to over 1 million cases and 12,000 deaths in Nepal. Worldwide, there have been over 630 million cases and at least 6.5 million deaths from Covid so far.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111414110/63723c369c7e80680e0c9606jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="914" height="396"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111414110/63723c389c7e80680e0c9607jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="892" height="499"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The pandemic did reinforce hand washing, hygiene and mask-wearing in Nepal, which in turn also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/silver-linings-in-the-covid-cloud/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">helped reduce incidences</a> of tuberculosis, typhoid, flu and other infectious diseases.But the biggest disruption was caused by repeated lockdowns which led to an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/economic-cost-of-5-months-of-nepal-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">economic crisis</a> in Nepal, lately worsened by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russian invasion of Ukraine</a>. All this has slowed improvements in nutrition levels as well as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lockdown-fallout/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">maternal and infant health</a>.During the pandemic, Nepal had an early warning of what was to come just by following trends in neighbouring India (see book review, below). But lack of adequate preparation at the border meant ineffective quarantine and testing, and a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-may-be-taking-coronavirus-to-rural-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rapid spread of the virus to the remotest corners</a> of the country. As hospitals in India ran out of beds and oxygen, so did Nepal.The second wave in 2021 saw India register the highest daily Covid-19 deaths, but the death rate proportional to population was probably higher in Nepal. Better-equipped hospitals with trained staff and adequate <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/helping-nepalis-breathe-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">oxygen and ICU facilities</a> across the country would have saved many of those lives.“Countries like Nepal will have to prepare for not just new emerging diseases but also re-emerging and existing infections. And the only way to do that is by strengthening our health system,” adds Pun “We must start training our medical personnel and upgrade health infrastructure. That is the biggest takeaway from the pandemic.”Nepal was one of the first countries to volunteer for Oxford University’s <a href="https://www.recoverytrial.net" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Recovery Trial</a> which studied the efficacy of various drugs, yet there is rampant over-prescription and over-the-counter availability of antibiotics.“We are still using antibiotics like Azithromycin to treat viral infections such as Covid and dengue which is adding to the problem of antimicrobial resistance,” says Buddha Basnyat, a physician at the Patan Academy of Health Sciences.At Teku Hospital, many of virologist Sher Bahadur Pun’s patients are also testing negative for dengue and suspects the mosquitoes that bit them could have been carrying another virus like Zika or Chikungunya which have been detected in India. "The symptoms are very similar and transmitted by the same mosquito," he adds.Covid-19 is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">just one of many pandemics</a>. But it won’t be the last. As humans interact with a deteriorating natural habitat and wildlife, they are exposed to zoonotic diseases — viruses that can jump from animals to humans. The growth in instantaneous international travel means infections can spread rapidly across the world.At the peak of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second wave with the Delta strain</a> more than 250 Nepalis were dying every day, but governments in Kathmandu and the provinces were preoccupied with a nasty power struggle. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/playing-politics-in-a-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Political infighting delayed response</a>, and led to many more unnecessary deaths.As Nepal and India prepare to mark the third year of the Covid-19 outbreak, the worst seems to be over. It took a global crisis and millions of deaths to remind us to be prepared for the next pandemic.Says Buddha Basnyat: “We now have to make the best use of our capacity and build on it. Let’s not be complacent, there are many other infections that afflict this part of the world.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111414110/63723c3a9c7e80680e0c9608jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="626"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Pandemic unmasked the real disease: governance failureOn 24 March 2020, the Narendra Modi government in India imposed the first lockdown with just four hours of warning. WHO praised this ‘timely and tough action’ to stop Covid, and the University of Oxford at the time called it the strictest lockdown in the world. With China’s zero-Covid policy that is probably not true anymore.Still, India’s sudden lockdown unleashed the greatest movement of people in the Subcontinent after the 1947 Partition, which had a cascading effect on Nepal.‘For a country with zero social security, which did not even have an authentic count of the number of people left without an income due to the lockdown, and where fractiousness and social fault lines make the poor and the backward easy preys of the systematic corruption, a measure like this would need weeks of planning. Even then it could still go wrong. So the repercussions of such a move without any preparation were unimaginable.’In her book Billions Under LockdownIndian journalist Abantika Ghosh chronicles the impact of lockdowns on her country. In a smaller scale, the upheavals caused by the lockdowns impacted Nepali migrant workers in India and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indians-stuck-in-nepal-also-trying-to-get-home/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Indians in Nepal who had to undertake arduous treks home</a>.In her book, Ghosh tells the story of 38-year-old Ranveer trying to make the 400km journey on foot from Delhi to his village in Madhya Pradesh. He died along the way, 100m short of reaching his destination. Nepali migrant workers, prevented from entering their own country at the border, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-still-stuck-in-no-mans-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">swam across the Mahakali River in Darchula</a>. Some drowned.Once quarantined, often without proper testing and contact tracing, Covid refugees were housed in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-quarantines-hotspots-for-disease/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">crowded shelters</a> which themselves became super-spreaders for the virus. The outbreak snowballed as migrants took the virus home to families, leading to community transmission.As hospitals were overwhelmed with cases, several treatment therapies were introduced. From a combination of HIV drugs and convalescent plasma therapy to malaria drug <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-truth-about-the-chloroquine-scam/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hydroxychloroquine</a>, a typhoid antibiotic Azithromycin and Remdesivir, all of which were later proven to be ineffective, and sometimes even harmful. What saved lives was the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/pandemic-and-the-political-economy-of-oxygen-supply/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">timely supply of oxygen</a>, and the cheap steroid Dexamethasone.Ghosh writes about India: ‘The biggest lesson of all was how politics became the most insurmountable impediment in the control of the disease.’ Ditto for Nepal.The pandemic unmasked the real disease: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-a-hotbed-of-virus-and-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">state neglect, corruption, governance failure</a> leading to ad-hoc restrictions, lack of testing and surveillance, an overwhelmed health system that left hundreds of millions of hapless citizens to fend for themselves.It also showed what worked: empowered local health institutions which responded quickly with testing, tracing and quarantining. No surprise that the Indian state with the lowest Covid fatality rate despite high exposure was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-did-kerala-beat-covid-19-spread/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kerala</a>.Abantika Ghosh’s lessons learnt could just as well be written for Nepal: ‘A matured health system is also decentralized, transparent, and, on occasion, self-sustaining … If you don’t treat diseases early, you only treat them when they are complex, and because complex interventions are more expensive, you do not have the resources left to bolster primary care. The more hospitals you build without investments in primary care, the more hospitals you will need to build.’Sonia AwaleBillions Under Lockdown: The Inside Story of India's Fight Against Covid-19 By Abantika Ghosh2021 Bloomsbury IRS699393 pages<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111414110/63723c3c9c7e80680e0c9609jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="695" height="1080">

Sonia Awale

Three years of living dangerously

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234b89c7e80680e0c494bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2200" height="1410"/><figcaption>The 39 Gorkha Regiment marching contingent passes through the Rajpath during the 62nd Republic Day Parade-2011, in New Delhi on January 26, 2011. Photo: PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU INDIA</figcaption></figure>A Tripartite Agreement in 1947 allowed the continued recruitment of Nepalis into the British and Indian Armies, but New Delhi’s plan to reform its military has implications for Nepal’s economy and politics.However incongruous it may be in this day and age for nationals of a sovereign nation to be serving in the military of another country, enlistment overseas provides  income for tens of thousands of Nepali families as well as being an important source of foreign exchange for the country.Now, the Indian government is set to implement the ‘Agnipath Yojana’ to reduce its defence expenditure. The scheme will allow soldiers below the rank of commissioned officers across three branches of India’s armed forces to be hired only for four-year periods.There are an estimated 32,000 Nepalis in the Gorkha Regiments of the Indian Army, but many new recruits in recent years are Indians of Nepali origin. Pensions of retired soldiers is an important source of Indian currency for Nepal’s economy, which relies overwhelmingly on imports from India.Agnipath will mean that only a quarter of the 46,000 soldiers between 17-23 years hired in 2022 can stay on in the military after four years. Those being let go will get golden handshakes of INR1.7 million and will not be eligible for lifetime pension.As the clock winds down to its launch in September, there have been angry protests against Agnipath in India. But the Nepal government has been conspicuously silent despite the potential impact on recruitment, the economy, as well as implications for the 1947 Tripartite Agreement on the rights of Nepali soldiers.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/he-shot-down-a-fighter-then-shot-to-fame/">He shot down a fighter, then shot to fame</a>, Gopal Dahal<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234bc9c7e80680e0c494cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="815" height="441">Says senior advocate Yuvraj Sangraula: “The Agnipath scheme violates the Tripartite Agreement signed at India’s independence which stipulates that pensions and other financial benefits be given to Gorkha soldiers as per the Indian Army Pay Code.”Recruitment of Nepalis into the British Army started even before the end of the 1814-16 war with the East India Company. Nepali soldiers have served in 10 Gurkha regiments of the British Army ever since, serving in both world wars, in the Malaya insurgency, and in Afghanistan. At least 55,000 Nepalis in the British Army have been killed in action, and many thousands have died fighting for India since 1947.Following Indian independence in 1947, six of the 10 regiments were assigned to India and four to Britain. India has since added another Gorkha Regiment, and there are currently 32,000 Nepali soldiers in 40 battalions. (India refers to its Nepali soldiers as 'Gorkhas', while the British prefer 'Gurkha'.)The Tripartite Agreement between Britain, India and Nepal spells out the rights of Nepali soldiers: their salaries, pensions, financial compensation, as well as facilities for families.The treaty guarantees equal basic pay for Gorkhas as other Indian soldiers, as well as pensions for servicemen who have served a minimum of 15 years.On 23 July, UML leader Bhim Rawal raised the Agnipath scheme in Parliament, asking for clarification from the government. He demanded that if Agnipath included Nepali soldiers, then Gorkha recruitment into the Indian Army be terminated.India earlier had informed the Nepal government that it would go ahead with recruiting Nepali youths in Butwal and Dharan. But after Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka held talks with Indian ambassador Naveen Srivastava on 24 August, the recruitment has been postponed in Butwal for now, and officials say that further discussions are underway.Experts, including former Nepali military brass, had called at the Prime Minister’s Office as well as the Foreign Ministry last week to urge talks with New Delhi about the impact of Agnipath on Nepal.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-back-at-the-1923-nepal-britain-treaty/"> Looking back at the 1923 Nepal-Britain Treaty</a>, Santa Gaha Magar<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234be9c7e80680e0c494djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="976" height="549"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234c09c7e80680e0c494ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="742" height="413">Lt Gen (Retd) Bala Nanda Sharma says both sides should sort it out: “Nepal should decide and state its position on the scheme in no uncertain terms after discussing its intricacies with India.”Former Indian Ambassador to Nepal Ranjit Ray confirmed that the scheme applies to recruitment of Nepalis, and also urged the two governments hold talks.“There is much confusion in Nepal about the terms and conditions of the Agnipath scheme. This reform will affect Nepal, especially its economy,” Ray admitted.International relations experts are surprised that as a signatory to the Tripartite Agreement, and as the country whose citizens will be directly impacted, the Nepal government was not involved in decision-making. Instead, New Delhi just asked for Nepal’s ‘views’ as recruitment under the new scheme was due to start.“As a member of the Tripartite Agreement, Nepal should have been asked for input prior to any decision by the Indian government,” says historian Pratyoush Onta. “It is clear that Nepal was given little importance in the new recruitment scheme.”Onta notes that India and Britain only tout the agreement when they have problems. “This has been happening for 75 years,” continues Onta. “Just like Nepal was not consulted when the British decided to scale back Gurkha recruitment, India now wants to stop giving pensions to Gorkha servicemen.”Writer and journalist Kanak Mani Dixit agrees that India going ahead with the military reform without discussing it with Nepal is a violation of the Tripartite Agreement.“When Nepal signed the agreement in 1947, Nepali servicemen were guaranteed a tenure, and all the benefits that came with it up to and beyond retirement, even if pension was not explicitly stated in the agreement.” Dixit says. “Now, the term has been reduced to four years.”However, ambassador Ray argues that Agnipath has not violated the Tripartite Agreement. “I have thoroughly read the 1947 agreeement,” he says, “There is no provision for pension in it.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234c29c7e80680e0c494fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="516" height="350">Former Maj Gen Gopal Gurung of the Indian Army Gorkha Regiment concedes that there is no mention of pension in the 1947 agreement, and the Indian Army Pay Code that Nepal’s argument hinges on has been subject to multiple revisions over the years and does not guarantee pension for Indian soldiers after retirement.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/gorkhas-on-the-frontline-between-india-and-china/">Gorkhas on the frontline between India and China</a>, Pratistha Rijal“The reform should only be considered a violation had Indian and Nepali soldiers not been treated equally,” argues Gurung. “There has been a severe gap in understanding because of the lack of dialogue between the two countries.”There are 125,000 Nepali retirees from the British, Indian and Singapore security forces who received Rs61.9 billion in pensions in the last fiscal year. After Agnipath comes into force, that amount could decrease by a quarter. The remittance Nepalis in the Indian military send home will also go down now due to the four-year military term limit.Former Lt Gen Ashok Mehta of the Indian Army predicts that Agnipath will henceforth discourage Nepali youth from enlisting.“They will not want to risk their lives just to get a lump sum of money in four years when they could be earning that amount by working in Japan or the Gulf,” Mehta says.The Agnipath scheme has once more opened the debate about the absurdity of recruitment of Nepalis into foreign armies. Nepali soldiers in the Indian Gorkha Regiments have fought and died in wars against Pakistan, China and in Sri Lanka – all neighbouring countries with which Nepal has friendly relations.When the Maoists launched their insurgency in 1996, they presented 40 demands to Sher Bahadur Deuba who was also prime minister then. One of those demands was a stop to recruitment by Britain and India of Nepali nationals into their army.Twenty-six years later, Deuba is prime minister for the fifth time in a coalition with the Maoist party. Demand for jobs in the Indian and British armies and the narrative of valour in battle appear to be too powerful for Nepalis and the Nepal government to stop  enlistment into foreign armies.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nalapani-to-kalapani/">From Nalapani to Kalapani</a> (Parts 1-5), Alisha Sijapati

India’s trial by fire for soldiers from Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131112/637230969c7e80680e0c2574jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>The Kulekhani Dam opened in 1982, and is still the only large reservoir project in Nepal. Photos: NT ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>A rapidly warming atmosphere is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-mountains-are-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">melting Himalayan glaciers</a>, changing the seasonal flow of water in Nepal’s rivers, and increasing the interest of downstream India to regulate water and generate electricity.For Nepal, this is an opportunity to finally tap the potential of the country’s ‘white gold' to meet growing demand for electricity domestically, as well as redress its trade deficit with India by selling <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-precious-electricity-going-waste/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">surplus power</a>.New Delhi’s priority has been not so much electricity but to try to regulate the flow of the Ganges by storing monsoon runoff in its Himalayan tributaries in Nepal, which is why it has lately started showing an interest in building large <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reservoir projects in Nepal</a>.“There is no doubt that India's real interest is in Nepal’s water resources rather than hydroelectricity,” says Sheetal Babu Regmi, formerly head of the Water and Energy Commission. “And water is going to be an even more critical commodity with the climate crisis.”Almost two-thirds of the water in the Ganges that flows through some of the most densely-populated regions in the world comes from the rivers of Nepal. And most of that flows down in the four monsoon months between June-September.In the rainy season, there are destructive floods in the plains, and for nine months in a year, the rivers have low flow. <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/storing-water-reservoir-Nepal,1042" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Storage dams in Nepal</a> would even this out, reducing flood damage during the monsoon, and make adequate water available the rest of the year.Climate change means that there will be even less water flowing in the Ganges and its tributaries in the dry season in the coming decades.A recent report by India's NITI Ayog showed that nearly 600 million Indians are facing a shortage of water for irrigation and household use, and singled out 21 cities, including New Delhi, as potentially facing groundwater depletion by 2030.Another report by ICIMOD (the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development) warned that failure to reduce carbon emissions would lead to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalaya losing up to two-thirds of its remaining glaciers</a> during this century.It is therefore strategically important for India to ensure regulated year-round water on the Ganges, and for this it needs a government in Kathmandu that is amenable to allowing it to build large reservoirs on Nepal’s rivers.However, given the historical asymmetry of past Indian projects on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-kosis-sorrow-and-scope/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Kosi</a> and Gandaki, river projects are political hot potatoes in Nepal. Governments in the past have fallen because incumbents signed off on river treaties with India that were deemed to disproportionately benefit India.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131112/637230999c7e80680e0c2575jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1185" height="774"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Which is what makes the timing of announcements of a slew of new Indian investment in river projects in Nepal after Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba-led coalition came to power last year so significant.On 14 June, Nepal’s cabinet gave permission to India’s state-owned NHPC Limited (formerly the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation) to build the 750MW West Seti hydropower project. The China Three Gorges International Corp (CTG) had in 2018 been edged out of the reservoir project with a 194m high dam in western Nepal.The NHPC had made a proposal to Nepal’s Investment Board in May for the construction of the project following promises made by Prime Minister Deuba during his visit to India in March. And while on the campaign trail in Dadeldhura in May, Deuba had revealed that construction of the West Seti would have to be given to India because otherwise New Delhi would not buy electricity off projects with Chinese investment.But experts have raised serious issues with the way such a large project has been handed over to Indian companies without the requisite competitive bidding process, and using a legal loophole to circumvent Nepal’s Public Private Partnership and Investment Act.An agreement to hand over a 51% stake in the construction of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/business/arun-4/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Arun-4 hydropower project</a> to another Indian state-owned company, Sutlej Hydropower Corporation, was also made in June during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Lumbini.Arun-4 follows Sutlej’s joint venture on the upstream <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/oli-modi-launch-arun-iii/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Arun-3 project</a> in eastern Nepal, and the government was so secretive about the deal that Nepalis came to know about it only after Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) executive director Kulman Ghising signed the agreement in Lumbini with Sutlej Hydropower chair Nand Lal Sharma.Sutlej Hydropower earlier acquired the 679MW Lower Arun project construction rights under former prime minister K P Sharma Oli. The cascade of Indian projects on the Arun River will generate 2,000MW of electricity in eastern Nepal.And with West Seti and Upper Karnali projects, Indian companies will be generating another 2,000MW of electricity from western Nepal for export to India.Additionally, the government is also planning to award the 450MW Seti River-6 project to NHPC. Sources at the Investment Board Nepal say that the Indian company is taking most of the electricity, and offering only 3% of free electricity to Nepal. The NHPC has also submitted a proposal for the 480MW Phukot Karnali and the 1,902MW Mugu Karnali projects in north-western Nepal.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131112/6372309c9c7e80680e0c2576jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="471"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The fact that all these projects have been announced only after Deuba replaced K P Oli as prime minister last year indicates that his coalition partners have been friendlier to Indian proposals on river projects than previous governments.Indeed, the 900MW Upper Karnali hydroelectric project which was awarded in 2014 to the Indian private company GMR was given a two-year extension despite its failure to finalise investment.“Nepal is playing a geopolitical game with hydropower, flouting the Constitution and prevailing laws,” says former water resource minister Dipak Gyawali.Nepal’s Constitution stipulates that treaties or agreements related to the distribution of natural resources and their use must be approved by a two-third majority in the Federal Parliament.Other experts however, say that Nepal cannot just sit on its rivers, it must harness them for economic progress, and for this it has to cooperate with India on an equal footing for mutual benefit.“Indian investment in the hydropower sector will benefit Nepal, it will mean the electricity we generate will find a ready market in India and reduce our trade deficit,” says NEA director Kulman Ghising.However, it is the fear that India will derive disproportionate benefit from these joint projects that worries Nepali experts, especially since there is historical precedent for that.India has also put pressure on Nepal by refusing to buy electricity from projects built with investment or contractors from China. India refused to buy surplus power from Nepal this monsoon, wasting 500MW of electricity. Chinese investors are presently involved in building hydropower plants with a total capacity of 1,000MW.Deuba reached an energy-sharing agreement during his India visit in March, under which the Central Electricity Authority of India approved 364MW of electricity imports from six hydropower projects in Nepal -- but only those not built by the Chinese.Foreign policy experts have seen a clear departure on the part of Prime Minister Deuba towards India on river basin projects, with Indian companies being favoured over Chinese ones.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131112/6372309e9c7e80680e0c2577jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In March, the Deuba-led government decided to revoke the license issued to the China Gezhouba Group Company (CGGC) to develop the mammoth <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-mega-dam-is-a-mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">$2.5 billion Budi Gandaki hydropower project</a> west of Kathmandu, and to build its 263m high dam to generate 1,200MW on its own.The Budi Gandaki has been a victim of geopolitical pingpong for the past five years. In 2017, Maoist Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s government awarded the project to CGGC, but the subsequent Deuba government reversed the decision, angering the Chinese. In 2018, K P Oli’s administration restored the contract, only to have Deuba cancel it again this year.Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi stated in May that it was “wrong to change policy (on Budi Gandaki) with every change of government … such actions kill the investment climate”.“It is not diplomatically mature to repeatedly undo decisions of preceding governments every time power changes hands,” cautions foreign affairs expert Dinesh Bhattarai.Experts say that India’s policy on it energy imports from Nepal will not only just discourage future Chinese investments in Nepal which is its goal, but also other investors. It will also throw Nepal’s policy of equidistance between China and India off balance.All this is not new. Before Three Gorges, Australia’s Snowy Mountain Engineering Company (SMEC) also pulled out of the West Seti project in 2010 after India showed no interest in buying its electricity. Then the Norwegian company SN Power abandoned the export-oriented 650MW Tamakosi 3 after not getting the green light from New Delhi to buy its power.Most of Nepal’s hydropower projects so far are run-of-river schemes in which generation capacity falls during the dry season. This means Nepal has a power deficit in winter when it needs to import from India, and has a surplus in the monsoon which it has started exporting to India.Having reservoir projects would change that, and give Nepal a more year-round generation capacity, while also regulating water on rivers as a bonus. But even with the present hydropower projects, Nepal earned Rs1.72 billion just in June from selling its excess electricity to India.“India considers water a strategic resource, and is cleverly trying to keep Nepal's energy system under its influence,” explains Dipak Gyawali, the former minister.Clearly, Nepal needs to prioritise domestic consumption of electricity over its export and channel it into electrification of transport, industries and homes. All of this will automatically cut down on petroleum imports, reducing its increasing trade deficit.Selling raw electricity to India is not as beneficial, experts point out, because Nepal is selling its power at a much cheaper rate to India than to domestic consumers. Switching to electric vehicles to reduce Nepal’s petroleum import bill by just 10% would save the country over Rs30 billion a year.The combined capacity of Nepal’s hydropower projects has now exceeded 2,100MW even as average domestic demand stands at just 1,550 MW. Another 2,500MW of electricity will be added to the grid in the next two years, while 3,000MW of new projects are in the pipeline.In a few short years, Nepal will have surplus year-round electricity, and experts say it will be better for the economy to use the power within Nepal to manufacture value-added products than to rely so heavily on selling power to India.They say Nepal needs to rework its energy needs so as to increase domestic consumption, and cut its widening trade deficit with India by reducing petroleum imports rather than just exporting power.

The geopolitics of Nepal’s water and electricity

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372182a9c7e80680e0baa2ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1350"/><figcaption>Indian Prime Moinister Narendra Modi and his Nepali counterpart Sher Bahadur Deuba visit Lumbini to mark Buddha Jayanti on 16 May. All photos: RSS</figcaption></figure>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Nepali counterpart Sher Bahadur Deuba met in Lumbini on Monday on the occasion of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/telling-the-story-of-buddhas-lumbini/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Buddha Jayanti</a>, offering prayers and holding a bilateral meeting.Modi flew in by helicopter after landing at India’s Kushinagar, and bypassing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bhairawas-new-airport-already-too-small/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gautam Buddha International Airport</a> that was also inaugurated today. The airport is Nepal’s second international gateway and is expected to boost pilgrimage and tourism traffic in the region.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372182d9c7e80680e0baa2bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption>Prime Minister Deuba inagurates Nepal' second international airport in Bhairawa also on Buddha Jayanti.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218309c7e80680e0baa2cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption>Also known as Gautam Buddha International Airport, it is expected to boost pilgrimage and tourism in the region.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218349c7e80680e0baa2djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1280"><figcaption>Mayadevi Temple decorated on the occasion of Buddha Jayanti.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218389c7e80680e0baa2ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1280"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/6372183c9c7e80680e0baa2fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/6372183f9c7e80680e0baa30jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="822"><figcaption>Jazeera Airways flight from Kuwait City which arrived on 16 May will operate regularly to Bhairawa.</figcaption></figure><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/buddhas-birthday-in-his-birthplace/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Lumbini was where the Buddha was born</a> 2,566 years ago, and Kushinagar is where he attained parinirvana. India also inaugurated an airport in Kushinagar, and the two countries are working together on a ‘Buddhist Circuit’ that also includes Bodh Gaya and Sarnath.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218429c7e80680e0baa31jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1198" height="818">Modi laid the foundation stone for the India International Centre for Buddhist Culture and Heritage and jointly inaugurated a 4,000 capacity meditation hall in Lumbini. Earlier, they lit lamps at the Ashoka Pillar, put up by the Mauryan emperor in 249BCE to mark <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/u-thant-kenzo-tange-and-the-buddhas-birthplace/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the nativity site</a>, and paid a visit to the Mayadevi Temple.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218459c7e80680e0baa32jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1188" height="857"><figcaption>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Mayadevi Temple to pay his respects. He also visited Indian community in Lumbini (pictured below, left).</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218489c7e80680e0baa33jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="545" height="401"><figcaption>Photo: DDNEWS</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/6372184a9c7e80680e0baa34jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1260" height="840"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/6372184d9c7e80680e0baa35jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2700"><figcaption>Narendra Modi with Sher Bahadur Deuba lays foundation stone or the India International Centre for Buddhist Culture and Heritage,</figcaption></figure>The day-long visit to Lumbini is Modi’s fifth trip to Nepal since he became prime minister in 2014. Bilateral relations soured after India imposed a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">6-month blockade</a> on Nepal and after it put 350 sqk km of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lines-on-a-map/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s territory in Limpiyadhura</a> in the country’s northwestern tip on its official maps.Modi tweeted in Nepali after arriving in Lumbini. He later posted: 'Happy to be among the wonderful people of Nepal on the special occasion of Buddha Purnima. Looking forward to the programmes in Lumbini.”'After bilateral meeting between the two prime ministers, Nepal and India also signed an agreement that included developing the 695MW Arun IV hydroelectric project in eastern Nepal at a cost of Rs80 billion. India's Sutlej Jala Vidyut Nigam (SJVN) which is also building the Arun-III will jointly develop the bigger project in partnership with Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA).Under the agreement, Nepal will get 152MW for free and the rest will be fed into the Indian grid.However, a much-expected agreement on opening up new two-way air routes from India and Nepal to facilitate new airports in Pokhara and Bhairawa did not materialise.

Deuba and Modi meet in Lumbini

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e2f9c7e80680e0bd52fmp4.mp4" title="" alt=""/><figcaption>Source: TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1469" height="800" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e2f9c7e80680e0bd530jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Source: SCOTT DUNCAN</figcaption></figure>This spring, northern India saw the hottest March since records started being kept 120 years ago, and this week people in the Indo-Gangetic plains are bracing themselves for maximum temperature to hit 50°C. All this hot air is also affecting next-door Nepal.After sweltering through record March heat, Kathmandu’s average temperature this week was at a 53-year record. Dharan registered 35.7°C in mid-March, another record. People in Nepal’s Tarai are used to heat waves, but not in March and April. All this makes Kim Stanley Robinson’s 2020 climate fiction <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Ministry-Future-Kim-Stanley-Robinson/dp/0316300136" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Ministry for the Future</a> prophetic. It starts with a town in northern India as it faces a deadly heat wave that kills most of its 200,000 inhabitants in a week. The facts of climate change induced heat stress are imitating fiction, and a dystopian narrative is becoming our new reality. “Heat, temperature and moisture combined will be the killers in South Asia, and if there is anything that will genuinely force people to respond to the climate crisis it is frequent heat waves, because unlike other episodic extreme events it is widespread and will impact everybody,” Ajaya Dixit of the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET) Nepal told us from New Delhi where the maximum temperature was 44°C on Tuesday. <figure><img width="1500" height="636" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e329c7e80680e0bd531jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Graphs: BINOD POKHAREL, Data: DHM</figcaption></figure>A recent study from 2000-2019 found that over 5 million people around the world died each year in that time due to extreme temperatures, with some 2.6 million in Asia – with most of the fatalities in South Asia. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Heatwaves</a> in 2010 killed more than 1,300 people from dehydration and stroke in Ahmedabad alone. Another severe heatwave in June 2015 during which the mercury hit 49.4°C caused the deaths of 2,500 people in northern India and 2,000 people across the border in Pakistan.Another heatwave in India and Pakistan in 2019 was the hottest and longest since the British started keeping temperature records, with the maximum at 50.8°C in Rajasthan. A similar but slightly less intensive heatwave in Europe in 2003 killed between 35,000-70,000 people.The World Health Organisation (WHO) Climate and Health country profile for Nepal predicts that under a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">high carbon emission</a> scenario, heat-related deaths in people above 65 years are projected to increase to about 53 deaths per 100,000 by 2080 compared to the estimated baseline of approximately 4 deaths per 100,000 annually. <figure><img width="1222" height="735" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e359c7e80680e0bd532jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>While dry heat is still bearable because the body cools with perspiration, it is humid heat that is more lethal. And climate change is not just making the world hotter, but also wetter. For every 1°C rise in temperature, there is 7% more moisture in the atmosphere.This is called ‘<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-heat-is-killing-us/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wet-bulb temperature</a>’ that measures both ambient air temperature and humidity level to determine how hot it actually feels. For example, if it is 30°C with high humidity, it will feel much warmer. A wet-bulb temperature of 35°C is considered the maximum limit of heat and humidity that humans can handle. Beyond that, the body can no longer effectively cool itself via perspiration. A couple of hours of exposure to this without artificial cooling will mean that people will start dying of heatstroke and dehydration, with children and the elderly being the most at risk.“The climate crisis in the Himalaya is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/women-and-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the water crisis</a>. Heat stress is manageable as long as there is access to water, but that is not the case for the poorest in the Tarai,” says climate scientist Binod Pokharel. “Luckily, this week’s heat wave is mostly dry heat with lower humidity.”The rain that is forecast for Nepal from Thursday will cool things down, but it will also increase the humidity.  <figure><img width="1500" height="527" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e389c7e80680e0bd533jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The other factor making heatwaves more intense are densely populated cities of vehicle exhaust, concrete and asphalt which form what are called ‘<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/preparing-for-kathmandus-heat-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">urban heat islands</a>’.  Ironically, the air conditioners city dwellers use to cool themselves indoors, is making it hotter still outside. There is a significant temperature gradient between the outskirts and Kathmandu’s city centre even in winter, which means the Valley does not have its characteristic winter fog anymore. On any given day, there is a temperature difference of 1.5°C  between Chobhar and Teku, even though the two places are only 3km apart.As more and more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-loses-its-open-spaces/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">open spaces</a> are built over and the greenery disappears, Kathmandu’s ‘heat bubble’ is going to get bigger. Warns Dixit: “The fast pace of urbanisation in South Asia is a serious threat and we are a witness to an unfolding disaster. Business as usual means higher cost of response, both financially and institutionally.”  <figure><img width="1500" height="568" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e3a9c7e80680e0bd534jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Photographic evidence of ice loss in Mt Everest, taken in 1921 and 2007 by George Mallory and David Breashers respectively.</figcaption></figure>He says the only solution is to start designing climate smart cities that restore open spaces and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/building-back-better-and-stronger-with-bamboo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">building houses with insulating material</a> and use or block sunlight, reducing the need for energy-intensive heating or cooling.The impact of increased heat in the Tarai, city centres and now even in the high Himalayan valleys is not limited to public health but will have consequences for agriculture, energy generation, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-prepare-for-climate-migration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">migration</a> and the glaciers.The hot and dry conditions this week have already fanned wildfires across the Indian Himalaya and in western Nepal. Although not as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bad as last year</a>, Kathmandu has been shrouded in smoke haze for more than a month.  <figure><img width="1118" height="531" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e3d9c7e80680e0bd535jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Open spaces have been replaced with concrete jungle in Kathandu. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Having a good <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">forecasting system</a> in place will help with preparedness, and save lives. But Nepal does not yet have its own standards to determine heat or cold waves, and relying only on the World Meteorological Organisation has limitations when it comes to localised projections.“Nepal needs to study its historical heat and cold waves and come up with its own standards and adjust it for the changing climate for better forecasting and preparedness at local levels,” says Pokharel. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) in Kathmandu is monitoring the heat wave this week, and despite projections of higher solar intensity <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-weather-elevates-air-pollution-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the smoke haze</a> has also been filtering the sunlight, lowering the maximum temperature slightly. “The heat wave conditions in the Indian plains this week is affecting us, and we expect more and more extreme heat events and anomalies made worse by the climate crisis,” says Archana Shrestha at the DHM.She adds, “Average temperatures will continue to rise and we have no other recourse than to be prepared. This means we have to rethink our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/cars-vs-people-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">development pathways</a>, I’m genuinely worried about how concrete structures are coming, this is turning our cities into hot spots. We must prepare this and future generations for even hotter summers. This means the the health, finance, agriculture ministries should all be prepared, not just the environment ministry.”

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