<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92bf9c7e80680e06f167jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1680" height="1118"/><figcaption>Photo: MANISH PAUDEL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>Soon after the coronavirus first emerged in Wuhan in December 2019, it spread rapidly within weeks to become an international public health emergency. Though it took months for the root of the illness to be identified, the virus was carried by human hosts in a highly interconnected globalised world.What would start as fever, chills, and flu-like symptoms began to lead to more severe cases of cardiac injury, respiratory failure and death. Those with pre-existing health conditions and the elderly were particularly vulnerable.The pandemic hotspots shifted from China to northern Italy, New York, then it was Brazil and the second wave that is ravaging India and Nepal. People were locked in at home for months to stop the spread, and it came at an additional cost – the rise of a mental health crisis globally.The Covid-19 pandemic has affected everyone and every aspect of our lives. The lockdowns may have helped contain the virus, but it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-prepares-for-economic-fallout-of-pandemic/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-prepares-for-economic-fallout-of-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623901287419000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFNmR9X3YmCrQqNw1FBAGmfiCln2w">destabilised economies</a>, businesses went bankrupt, people lost jobs, again exacerbating the impact on mental health in societies.The coronavirus emerged because of the over-<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623901287419000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFdtI-md82Syn9kPX3XvQxEsytPFg">exploitation of nature</a> by a globalised mass consumption society. But the pandemic it unleashed has allowed us to think about that, and also allowed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/coronavirus-shutdown-gives-nepals-nature-a-respite/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/coronavirus-shutdown-gives-nepals-nature-a-respite/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623901287419000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjFSVplTP8JEJIO5Z3tiqLfAmkRw">nature to begin to restore itself</a>.Studies have shown that lockdowns in response to the pandemic have significantly improved the air quality in many big cities due to the shutting down of industries and fewer vehicles on the roads. From Kathmandu, the Himalaya suddenly came into view.The restrictions and lockdowns led to a decrease in economic activity, resulting in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623901287419000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEYWiOv5AGc2wmkU8qJ7ukoSO2t4w">reduced air pollution</a> and emission of greenhouse gases. Ironically, while the virus was attacking the respiratory system, countermeasures taken against its spread were also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/double-whammy-air-pollution-and-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/double-whammy-air-pollution-and-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623901287419000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGpVy3V8L2xvmfYCZEjNngNVn1DWg">making it easier to breathe. </a>The ban on international travel also helped reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, dramatically demonstrating the path to reducing the impact of the climate crisis: the need to cap carbon dioxide emissions.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-carbon-footprint-of-nepals-tourism/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-carbon-footprint-of-nepals-tourism/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623901287419000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHf6W5H1b9EDeZu8Y_x1BnST3siyw">collapse of tourism</a> affected the economies of countries like Nepal, but it has allowed nature to regenerate. There is less waste along the trekking trails, less garbage.Across the world, people are consuming much less than they used to. It is hard to say if this frugality will persist in the post-pandemic era, but it has set a precedent. Many of us are focusing more on our health, and have adopted better eating habits.For nearly two months now, there is also less noise pollution. Kathmandu’s streets are silent, no roar of trucks, no honking, no construction work, and few jets overhead. Persistent ambient clamour is known to affect our physiological and physical health. With less unwanted noise, the soothing sounds of nature are more audible with bird song, frogs in ponds, and even the rustle of leaves on trees. The sound of silence, and comforting natural sounds carry many mental health benefits.Cities attract people because of economic opportunities and their cosmopolitanism. The absence of people in these urban centres during the pandemic have allowed them to restore themselves organically – showing us that we have to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pandemic-is-a-chance-to-rethink-development/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pandemic-is-a-chance-to-rethink-development/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623901287419000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG6oAiPAlgzK0NmSxSIbDU0MyC4OA">tread more lightly on the environment</a>. For once, the focus has shifted from people to nature so that it has a chance to recover from years of abuse.All of this has come at a great price, no doubt, but Covid-19 has also shown us what we need to do for a sustainable lifestyle to reduce anthropogenic carbon and the burden on nature. If we focus away from the negative impact the pandemic has had on us, and redirect it to the nature around us, we see many positive outcomes that also have beneficial effects on our own lives.We have started focusing more on relationships because earlier most of us were too busy to find the time to do so. We have begun communicating more with family and friends. The pandemic also offers us a chance to rethink our lives, and our purpose.We have started consuming less because we realised that we do not need as much as we thought. There have been significant changes in consumer behaviour that have been good for the planet just because we use, and waste, less.The world is recovering from years of damage that we were so disrespectfully placing on the planet’s resources. In Nepal, we have seen signs of the ecosystem starting to rebalance itself. The question is whether government policies will reflect this in the coming years.It is terrible what Covid-19 has done to the world, but it has also shown us how to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/build-back-greener/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/build-back-greener/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623901287419000&amp;usg=AFQjCNExv5VA-LyNgHQNsiZOMwoP0Jsqgg">improve the planet’s health</a>, and with it, the human condition. We desperately want to get back to our everyday lives, but being isolated has reminded us that even if we go back to the way we lived, we have to be mindful of our impact on the planet.We can rebuild the economy, but the damage humans are inflicting on nature is irreversible. The pandemic provides the chance to take action to restructure the way we live.Anjana Rajbhandary lives and works in Chicago. She writes this fortnightly Nepali Times column Life Time about mental health, physical health and socio-cultural issues.

Anjana Rajbhandary

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Grow back greener

<figure><img width="4032" height="3024" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b923a9c7e80680e06f137jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: MADHU ACHARYA</figcaption></figure>Worldwide, the impact of Covid-19 underscores the need for more social security buffers built upon the access to four basic services: affordable credit, reliable saving and pensions options, life and health insurance, and quality healthcare.  This is true in Nepal, too, where large sections of the country’s nearly 30 million people lack access to social security.  In fact, there were less than 3 million total beneficiaries from some form of government social security in 2015. More investment in building the baseline infrastructure, digital pipes for service delivery and platforms for demand/supply matching, can deepen and widen key services that help create social buffers. Covid-19 is not the first disaster to hit Nepal, and it certainly will not be the last.  Mobile and digital technology, central to the pipes and platforms, can be vital in rapidly expanding access to formal credit, pensions, life and health insurance, and quality healthcare, the key elements of a functioning social security ecosystem.  This ecosystem must focus on improved accessibility, which in turn depends on developing a range of service delivery models specific to Nepal’s diversity. India with its India Stack, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and countries in Latin America and Africa are successfully using mobile and digital technology to build-on and bolster traditional forms of group resilience. Nepal is also ready to explore new service delivery models suited to our market and social idiosyncrasies.  New youth-led Nepali organisations must be able to connect with incumbent stakeholders -- the banks, insurance companies, pension schemes, and hospitals -- to build unique service delivery models that extend the reach of each stakeholder. Customer-centric digital and mobile platforms can connect to incumbents and rapidly distribute their products/services.  Government finance and concessional capital, therefore, must focus on fostering trust in the ecosystem, so that incumbents can begin to partner with digital and mobile platforms.  Access to Finance  Mobile payment systems and digital credit form the backbone of a basic infrastructure required for an accessible and responsive social security services.  Nepal’s payment ecosystem has developed <a href="https://www.nrb.org.np/contents/uploads/2020/10/Oversight-Report_2076-77.pdf">significantly</a> over the past five years. Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), financial institutions (FIs), and technology service firms have made considerable headway in making the transfers of money more efficient and secure. However, innovations in delivery of financial products continue to stall.  Companies such as Nepal Clearing House Limited (NCHL) and F1Soft have created shared infrastructure and enabled financial institutions to conduct digital transactions and extend such services to customers. As a result, digital payments between individuals, financial institutions, businesses, and government bodies have spiked, especially during the pandemic.  But Nepal’s financial institutions are yet to use digital channels to expand their portfolios. Brazil’s Cignifi, for example, provides telecos and financial institutions with analytics services to calculate credit scores based on non-financial alternative data, uncover invisible consumers, and extend micro-loans.  Nepali incumbent FIs are yet to partner with such types of third-party organisations to explore new products and customers. FIs must get into open banking designs, an architecture where third-party developers are able to connect to the FI’s internal functions and build overlaying applications and services.  Incumbent financial institutions in frontier markets like Nepal do not even need to create things from scratch. They can leverage products from companies like South Africa’s Jumo that provide the full technology stack as a service for building and running digital financial services.  Nepal Payment System, a Payment Systems Operator (PSO), and Nepal Electronic Payment System (NEPS), another PSO managing a local card network, along with NCHL and F1Soft are helping Nepal’s financial ecosystem move towards an open banking architecture as well.  The Nepal government still needs to step in and build additional shared infrastructure, particularly for digital identity verification and safe data sharing. What the shared infrastructure can then allow is for savvy tech developers and entrepreneurs adept at customer acquisition to partner with incumbent financial institutions to expand their reach.  Nepal’s telecom providers have also finally been licensed to provide payment services, and they can contribute significantly to expand financial inclusion. M-Pesa from Kenya and bKash from Bangladesh have set strong examples. They work with telecom companies and banks to allow telecom-based payments and offer micro credit services even through dumb feature phones. <img width="523" height="565" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b923d9c7e80680e06f138jpeg.jpg" alt="">Pensions Pensions are critical, whether it be for an individual’s retirement or preparing for the family’s future. Nepal’s pensions schemes must use some of the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/apis-future-financial-services/">shared financial technology infrastructure</a> being built to improve their accessibility and quality of services. Khalti, a Nepali Payment Service Provider (PSP), recently started enabling payments to Nepal’s Social Security Fund (SSF). But, what customers and beneficiaries want are additional SSF services accessible through Khalti. Ghana’s Petra Trust, for example, has revolutionised the pension system by attracting corporates, multinational organizations, and government agencies into their schemes through a focus on customer experience and operational efficiency. Our pension schemes also need strong operational capabilities to execute on their mandates, widen their beneficiary base, and extend higher-value services. Khalti can help SSF do these things as well. And, in time, another specialized third-party service provider might be able to come along and partner with SSF to provide customised investment advisory services to individual beneficiaries along with more sophisticated products and asset management strategies that align to each persons’s financial goals. Fisdom in Bangalore, among others, is one such platform.A Khalti-like third-party service provider may also help extend pension benefits beyond urban centers and into rural Nepal. Peru’s Credinka, for example, stimulates savings in remote communities in the Andes through their agents, who are increasingly digitising. Half of their savers are women, and more than a quarter are from rural areas. Additional shared infrastructure from the government, such as digital ID verification service or secure data sharing service, should allow Nepal’s other PSPs to connect with the vast network of savings groups and cooperatives that need to digitize rapidly, to expand high quality pension schemes in those networks as well. Insurance Nepal’s insurance market needs to deepen with broader adoption and better products. Our insurance industry has undergone very little digital transformation. Digital wallets, such as eSewa, allows beneficiaries to pay their premiums online, and Arthanomy and ebeema are seeking to replicate India’s policybazaar.com -- an online insurance aggregation platform – in Nepal. Digital sales of Covid-19 insurance policies during the last year did quickly address a risk everyone was ill-prepared for. But digital sales are not enough for the insurance sector to improve product quality and distribution. There is lack of digitisation in product development, underwriting, analytics and claims settlement in the insurance sector. Insurers need to distribute high-quality and appropriate products, then follow through on their commitments; thus, key areas for operational efficiency – customer communication and claims processing – are yet to be digitised in Nepal. Resolution Insurance in Kenya, for example, has been a trailblazer as the insurer of choice for SMEs in East Africa. Closer to home, Softlogic Life in Sri Lanka is one of the fastest growing life and health insurers. It caters to the growing digitally savvy Sri Lankan middle class that seeks an end-to-end digital/mobile experience. Nepali insurers need to partner with third-party service providers to offer end-to-end digital experience to younger Nepali consumers. The entry of telecom companies in payment services can help expand insurance coverage in rural areas. Models such as those of BIMA Mobile can serve as examples. BIMA partners with mobile network operators, mobile money operators, and large insurance underwriters to distribute, underwrite, and settle claims for life, property and casualty, and health insurance to low-income consumers through simple feature phones. Such a model can vastly expand micro-insurance to Nepal’s rural areas.  <figure><img width="854" height="541" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b923f9c7e80680e06f139jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>WEF (6.4.2021) What’s Next for Open Banking </figcaption></figure>Healthcare Just as the stakeholders in the financial system came together to create shared infrastructure, there is also such a need in the healthcare value chain. Digitisation in the healthcare industry is low, whether it be how hospitals manage their internal operations or how they manage patient data. Therefore, Nepal’s hospitals do need to digitise internally first before they build meaningful partnerships with third-party digital service providers to expand and improve services. Let us explore what greater digitisation might enable in hospitals, pharmacies, and rural women groups:Nepal’s hospitals have faced capacity constraints and shortages of equipment in recent weeks as they grapple with Covid-19. But, what if hospitals were able to share their operational data to third party service providers who could coordinate supplies and customers? Mexico’s SaludFacil, for example, places low-income patients in hospitals that have extra capacity. They negotiate with private hospitals to lower cost of service to low-income patients by fulfilling hospitals’ slack capacity. A single digitised hospital might not have fared better, compared to a network of hospitals that is able to communicate with one another seamlessly to improve patient outcomes. Nepal Research and Education Network (NREN), for example, is working to build a data network among health institutions and support telemedicine. Capacity of Nepal’s local pharmacies are just as important for capacity in the healthcare industry because they are typically the first points of contact for many low-income folks seeking medical advice. GoodLife Pharmacy in East Africa, for example, is dedicated to increasing access to healthcare through pharmacy stores. The company not only provides affordable and quality medical products, but each of its stores also includes consultation centers and telemedicine services. Our independent pharmacies in Nepal need some shared infrastructure and network so that third-party digital platforms can easily partner with them and enable them to provide quality medical counsel. Finally, Nepal’s rural women networks, who have been instrumental in improving health outcomes for women and children over the past 30 years, need help to improve their services. Bodhi Health in India, for example, provides quality medical education and information to health workers and community health workers through their mobile phones in English and local languages. Nepal’s rural women also need some shared infrastructure, through which they can partner with digital platforms to expand and improve services.  <figure><img width="831" height="458" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92429c7e80680e06f13ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Source: PWC (2017) The Digital Healthcare Leap</figcaption></figure>Advances in mobile and digital technology along with innovative entrepreneurs are spurring rapid improvement in access to credit, pension, insurance and healthcare in developing countries. Mobile phones and digital platforms have upended traditional notions of how these services need to be delivered. Policymakers need to focus on allocating government and concessional resources towards building shared infrastructure, which can allow incumbent institutions – banks, insurance companies, pension schemes, and healthcare organisations – to partner with third-party digital platforms that can help improve the reach and quality of products/services. This focus can rapidly build accessible and adaptable social safety nets in Nepal. Ashraya Dixit is a Senior Fellow with the Nepal Economic Forum.

Digital path to social buffers in Nepal

<figure><img width="1800" height="1350" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91fe9c7e80680e06f121jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A landslide in Jajarkot last year. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>By any measure, the past year has been disastrous for Nepal. The Covid-19 lockdowns devastated the economy, the 2020 monsoon killed a record number of people, and this year the second wave hit with full force even as governance was paralysed by a prolonged power struggle in the ruling party. Now, Nepalis are bracing themselves for their <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second monsoon season during the pandemic</a>, one which meteorological modellers say could dump above normal precipitation over most parts of the country.The other difference with last year is that the second Covid-19 wave is even more virulent and widespread. This means crowded shelters after a flood or landslide will be hotspots for new infections at a time when only 4% of the population is vaccinated.“Covid and floods are contradictory in nature, as one needs physical distancing while the other makes it impossible to do so. This will add to the existing burden,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa.She adds: “We can’t prevent floods, but we can reduce its impact. We must concentrate on identifying risk groups and their emergency evacuation, set up shelters with physical distancing, stockpile tents, food and emergency medicines including oral rehydration salts and water purifiers.”Even though last year’s southwest monsoon was said to be 'normal' in Nepal, it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">triggered numerous flash floods and landslides</a>, killing at least 400 people and destroying over 1,000 houses. Entire villages in Sindhupalchok, Jajarkot, Myagdi, Baglung, Kalikot and Bajura districts were buried. The South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has forecast ‘above normal’ rainfall for most of Nepal this year, with more than usual precipitation in most of the Mahabharat and Himalaya, and slightly deficient rainfall in the eastern Tarai. <figure><img width="2081" height="1260" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92019c7e80680e06f122jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>"There is a possibility of floods, landslides and other water-related disasters occurring together during the third and fourth week of July this year when the second wave of the pandemic will still be peaking,” states the government’s National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Plan 2021. The probability of flash-floods and landslides are even higher this year because of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the wildfires</a>. There were 7,000 fires affecting 75 of Nepal’s 77 districts from November 2020 to May 2021, the highest number ever recorded.  The fires reduced forested slopes to ashes, incinerated the undergrowth, thus reducing the absorptive capacity of the soil. When the rains come, the water will therefore rush down the slopes instead of seeping into the topsoil. “This year’s rainfall is forecast to be higher than last year's average. Based on this analysis, it can be estimated that there will be a significant increase in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">landslides and floods</a> during this year's monsoon,” says meteorologist Shanti Kandel at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. She adds: “Forecasting is preparedness in some ways. But it has to be effectively communicated, so if we are to wait until landslides have occurred to act, it’s too late and there is no point.” <figure><img width="1050" height="701" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92049c7e80680e06f123jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In the past, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the government has faced criticism</a> for prioritising relief over prevention. This could change with the formation of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), which works primarily on preparedness and mitigating risk, while delegating more rescue responsibility to first-responders in local governments.“In earlier years landslides were not discussed as part of our monsoon preparedness plan, only floods were, and this year we set landslides as a priority for preparedness and response also looking at the intersection of wildfires, Covid-19 and the monsoon,” says Anil Pokhrel, who heads NDRRMA that has produced a workplan for monsoon preparedness and response. The NDRRMA with DHM recently trained officials in 36 municipalities in nine of the most high-risk districts (Myagdi, Gorkha, Kalikot, Rasuwa, Sindhupalchok, Bajhang, Jajarkot, Syangja and Dailekh) on Impact Based Forecasting which predicts extreme weather events so that at-risk groups can be ready. “We are dealing not just with floods and landslides this time, but also Covid-19. Local communities are setting up rapid response teams to best prevent an outbreak in shelters and maintain health protocols, and spreading awareness through FM radio in local languages,” says Liladhar Adhikari of the NDRRMA. Despite the ‘above normal’ forecast in the models, climate scientist Ngamindra Dahal expects the monsoon to even out unless Nepal experiences cloudbursts over the Mahabharat and Chure ranges. These sudden heavy showers have been the cause of the deadliest floods and landslides in recent years. “We now have the technology to predict localised cloudbursts through Impact Based Forecasting which is crucial in saving lives, all we need now is real-time action so local communities get advance warning,” says Dahal.But predicting and determining the impact of floods and landslides only from the perspective of weather gives us an incomplete picture. The climate crisis has changed precipitation patterns and made extreme weather events more frequent and destructive. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Poorly designed and built roads, bad engineering</a>, and unplanned settlements have disturbed fragile mountain slopes, making them more disaster-prone.“We have in recent times recorded 105mm rain per hour in Surkhet, 100mm in Bajhang and 73 in Kulekhani which is a clear indication that the monsoon is getting more intense, but we are only now trying to understand this trend,” says Dahal. “We need to see whether there are indeed more frequent cloudbursts, or if the disasters are more noticed because they affect new settlements in floodplains and roads that follow river banks.” <figure><img width="1174" height="770" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92079c7e80680e06f124jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>At the NDRRMA, Liladhar Adhikari agrees that in addition to rapid response and rescue, a new development model is crucial in preventing multiple hazards in the long term. “New infrastructure has to adhere to environmental safeguards so that they do not drastically alter the rural landscape and make them more vulnerable to disasters.”Unfortunately, Nepal’s approach to development has been at the expense of nature preservation. The annual budget announced last week <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">will allow quarrying</a> on the already-unstable slopes of Himalayan foothills to export stones and aggregates to India.Epidemiologist Lhamu Yangchen Sherpa has been to several emergency shelters recently, and points out that there is an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/uneven-pandemic-impact-on-nepali-women/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">additional burden on women during disasters</a>.  She says: “Like before and during this coronavirus crisis, women are especially vulnerable in the aftermath of a disaster, we must support them with security in shelters, physical and mental health care during this monsoon in the middle of a pandemic.”

Sonia Awale

Nepal braces for monsoon-pandemic double hit

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd149c7e80680e08bc58jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Prime Minister K P Oli visited Singha Darbar in nearly a year when he inaugurated the earthquake-damaged secretariat building on 15 February. Most of his Cabinet colleagues are also AWOL, and busy planning pro-Oli political rallies.</figcaption></figure>When Prime Minister K P Oli set foot in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/inside-story-of-nepals-rana-dynasty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Singha Darbar</a> on 15 February to inaugurate the Cabinet office rebuilt after the earthquake, it had been nearly a year since he had been to the seat of government.In the courtyard of the palace first <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/inside-story-of-nepals-rana-dynasty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">built by Chandra Shumshere Rana 100 years ago</a>, he gave a two-hour speech highlighting his government’s achievements. Then he quickly drove back to his residence in Baluwatar.Ostensibly, the prime minister stopped working out of his secretariat at Singha Darbar because his second <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/prime-ministers-health-condition-under-wraps/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">kidney transplant</a> in March 2020 made him vulnerable to coronavirus infection.He did visit Singha Darbar briefly in April last year when he addressed the Non-Aligned Movement Conference from the Action Room of his office.But ever since he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolved the Lower House</a> on 20 December and announced snap polls for April and May, Prime Minister Oli has been behaving as if he is on the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/a-kathmandu-spring/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">election campaign trail</a>. His public appearances have been limited to addressing street rallies, where he has lashed out at estranged Nepali Communist Party (NCP) co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal.It is not just the prime minister who is AWOL from Singha Darbar. His Cabinet ministers also seem busy moonlighting. Finance Minister Bishnu Poudel, Minister of Industry Lekhraj Bhatta, Energy Minister Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, Education Minister Krishna Gopal Shrestha, and Law Minister Lilanath Shrestha have all been busy with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">firefighting within the NCP</a>’s instead of attending to the country’s problems.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd189c7e80680e08bc59jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="875"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>A secretary at Singha Darbar admitted to Nepali Times that ministers are rarely available for meetings at their ministries because they are too busy defending Oli from his <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rivals in the NCP</a>.“Prioritising internal party matters and a lack of government accountability poses a serious challenge to effective and impactful governance,” says former government secretary Khemraj Nepal.The half-yearly review of the current budget released by the Ministry of Finance last week shows that only 14% of the capital expenditure allocated by the government for development (Rs50.8 billion out of Rs353 billion) had been spent as of December. This is less than what was spent during the first six months of the previous year.Most development projects have also not met their spending targets. Figures show only Rs14 billion out of the Rs92 billion allocated to speed up the construction of 25 infrastructure projects had been utilised. Indeed, the Action Room set up at the Prime Minister's Office in Singha Darbar to accelerate national pride projects has not seen much action in Oli’s absence.This means an economy already stagnant due to the pandemic is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/instability-to-cost-nepal-dear-in-2021/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lagging behind in recovery</a> because development projects are languishing due to government indifference.Oli had pledged Rs300 million from government coffers to add a golden सुनको जलहरी pendant at Pashupatinath during his controversial visit to the temple in January. His decision, an impulsive response to the request by the Pashupati Area Development Fund, was made without prior discussion with advisers.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd1c9c7e80680e08bc5ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>This is perhaps one of the few activities of the government that is actually being fast-tracked so the inner sanctum of the temple has the expensive gold pendant in time for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/maha-shivaratri/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Shivaratri</a> on 11 March.Pashupati was not the first time Oli dropped a surprise. A former secretary says the prime minister’s habit of making ad hoc spur of the moment decisions from Baluwatar without consulting experts is wasteful. Only Oli’s adviser and confidante Bishnu Rimal is said to have the prime minister’s ear on most matters.Giriraj Mani Pokhrel, a former minister in the Oli administration, recalls many such impulsive decisions at Cabinet meetings that went against the government’s own strategy.Even former Finance Minister Yuvraj Khatiwada, a workaholic who prefers to keep strict office hours, has criticised the ‘out-of-office’ culture of the prime minister and his Cabinet colleagues.Another senior government official told Nepali Times said the state machinery was in complete disarray due to the prime minister’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/zero-sum-game-for-nepals-ruling-communists/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lackadaisical attitude towards governance</a>. Not only has Oli been out of touch with his ministers, but the ministers are also not discussing important issues with their secretaries, thus disrupting the entire chain of communication within Singha Darbar."Because the PMO in Baluwatar functions as a parallel seat of government, morale is very low in Singha Darbar,” the official says.Former Finance Secretary Shantaraj Subedi says ministers have the responsibility of carrying through the government’s programs, managing the budget and making policy decisions. "If the minister does not show up, and does not take his work seriously, there will be no result,” Subedi says.Most ministers these days do not even bother to come to Singha Darbar. They either work from their residences, or are attending <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/back-in-the-streets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">political rallies</a> in support of the prime minister, or planning them with their cronies.

Nepal's empty corridors of power

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be1539c7e80680e083e40jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1001"/><figcaption>Photo: MANISH PAUDEL</figcaption></figure>Nepal has only slightly progressed in the annual overall prosperity rankings this year, but rose 15 steps over the last decade with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/security-reduces-poverty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">substantial improvement in security</a> and social capital. Worldwide, global prosperity was at its highest ever level when Covid-19 struck.The London-based Legatum Institute’s 2020 Prosperity Index released on Tuesday analyses 167 countries around the world on 12 measures in three broad metrics: inclusive societies, open economics and empowered people.With an overall ranking of 114, Nepal still maintains its position of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-rises-in-prosperity-index/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">22nd poorest out of the 29 countries in Asia-Pacific</a>. It has made the most dramatic progress over the last decade in prosperity measures such as safety and security (scoring from 47.2 to 68.5, a jump of 66 points in the global ranking) and social capital (37.5 to 50.5, up 59 position).<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/its-a-rich-mans-world/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">It's a rich man's world</a>, Ramesh Kumar<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Nepal-%20Multidimensional-Poverty-Index,4115" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">28.6%</a>, EditorialBut this is countered by the fact that there was little to no improvement in the country’s investment environment and enterprise condition, highlighting Nepal’s less than friendly investment climate, further proving that the openness of the economy has stagnated. Nepal’s enterprise condition has fallen by 22 points in the global ranking, from 100th to 122th in the world and 25th in South Asia.There were also minimal gains in economic quality and governance, largely owing to the local elections in 2017, the first one in two decades that led to some grassroots development and accountability in the recent years.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be1589c7e80680e083e41jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1654" height="612"><figcaption>Source: THE LEGATUM INSTITUTE</figcaption></figure>As expected there was some healthy development in market access and infrastructure, health, education and living condition of Nepalis but keeping up with the regional trend, Nepal dropped in personal freedom and natural environment measures. While not a major loss in terms of points, these are significant indicators of the changing times.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal's great income divide</a>, Ramesh Kumar<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mind the gap</a>, EditorialPrior to the pandemic, prosperity stood at a record high, with 147 out of 167 countries seeing prosperity rise over the last decade, driven by improved health, education, and living conditions, and more open economies. However, weaker personal freedom and deteriorating governance are holding back further improvements in prosperity.In fact, the improvement seen in the last 12 months had not kept pace with the progress of the previous two years, as Asia-Pacific and Western Europe stalled and North America deteriorated slightly. In addition, stagnating personal freedom and governance around the world is holding back further improvement in prosperity.“There is never a good time for a worldwide health crisis, but if there has to be one, the progress that has been made over the last decade provides emerging nations with a better context in which to tackle it. But the Western world must beware the trap of falling into a mindset of an overdeveloped society, vulnerable to entitlement and complacency,” says CEO of the Legatum Institute Philippa Stroud.She adds: “Never has it been more important for leaders to recognise the holistic nature of prosperity and make strategic choices to further build inclusive societies and more open economies, and to improve the lived experience of all citizens.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be15b9c7e80680e083e42jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1352" height="1092"><figcaption>Source: THE LEGATUM INSTITUTE</figcaption></figure>The Index also shows that further growth in global prosperity is being held back by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lockdown-crackdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">stagnating personal freedom and governance</a>. Globally 121 countries had seen a decline in the freedom to speak and access information and 116 had seen a reduction in the freedom to assemble and associate over the past 10 years, and political accountability and executive constraints – which measures the checks and balances on elected governments and their officials – had both weakened.This deterioration is even <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/south-asia-tightening-press-controls-amidst-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more pronounced in the post Covid era</a> where government across the world have tried to downplay their inability to control the pandemic and rather undermined it in multiple ways, including by withholding vital information and by creating <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-shrinks-civic-space/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">roadblocks for journalists reporting from the frontlines</a>.Decisions that build prosperity and respect freedom and responsibility is crucial to lead world through Covid, says the Legatum Institute urging the leaders globally to hold firm to a holistic view of prosperity and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/journalism-is-not-a-crime/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the core principles of freedom and responsibility</a> as they respond to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.Says Stephen Brien, Director of Policy at the Legatum Institute: “Prosperity is underpinned by an inclusive society, with a strong social contract that protects the fundamental liberties and security of every individual. It is driven by an open economy that harnesses ideas and talent to create sustainable pathways out of poverty. And it is built by empowered people, who play their part in creating a society that promotes wellbeing.”

Nepal stalls in Prosperity Index

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171156/636bdc2f9c7e80680e080301jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="998"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Pradumna B Rana is Visiting Associate Professor at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore. He has authored or edited 20 books, and his latest is China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Impacts on Asia and Policy Agenda co-authored with Xianbai Ji. Nepali Times: Why the BRI, and what is the value-added of your book?Pradumna B. Rana: As you know, the BRI is President Xi Jinping’s foreign and economic policy initiative to connect and develop the Euro-Asian super-continent. Over 165 countries in Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America have signed up for the BRI. It was launched in 2013, in the usual top-down campaign style manner, with few details. Issues are only now becoming clearer. We wanted to document these details.Also, existing analyses and commentaries are based on narrow samples and case studies. We wanted to capture the views of opinion leaders (defined as policymakers, academics, and representatives of businesses and media) from a broad range of stakeholder countries, 26 Asian countries that have signed the BRI MOU with China.Hence, Japan, Australia, and India were excluded from our survey. China was also excluded for obvious reasons. To the best of our knowledge, our survey is the first of its kind.  In addition, our book also presents the simulation results of a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. This is another value-added.Will the BRI lead to a win-win situation for both China and the BRI stakeholder country as claimed by China, or will it benefit only China as alleged by Western countries?The answer is: it depends. The 1,200 plus opinion leaders from 26 countries who responded to our perception survey felt that the present version of the BRI or BRI 1.0 has a number of problems like lack of transparency and openness, China’s lack of sensitivity to local conditions, and its unwillingness to allow local contractors to bid for BRI projects. Despite this, most respondents felt that if China reformed the BRI along the lines suggested in the survey, then ultimately BRI 2.0 could lead to a win-win situation.The BRI is frequently portrayed as a geopolitical strategy that ensnares countries in unsustainable debt or the so-called debt trap diplomacy. Is this true?Although 27% of our respondents had yet to decide, 40% felt that the debt-trap argument was not true. Only 30% supported the debt-trap diplomacy theory. Some respondents felt that domestic factors (such as corruption and reckless borrowing) were responsible for the rising levels of debt in several BRI countries like Malaysia, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Yet others felt that China’s financial system was too fragmented and poorly coordinated for it to pursue detailed strategic objectives such as snaring countries in debt traps. So, the debt-trap argument is probably more a myth rather than a reality.How can Nepal itself benefit from the BRI?The simulation results of econometric models show that landlocked countries are the largest beneficiaries of the BRI. Mongolia is fast-becoming a land-link between China and Russia. Countries in Central Asia (such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) are also becoming land-links between China and Europe. Nepal could similarly benefit by becoming a land-bridge between China and India, but at the present time the proposed Trans-Himalayan Economic Corridor is not feasible because of the strong opposition to the BRI from India.Our simulation results, however, show that even without India, the Nepal-India Trans-Himalayan Multidimensional Connectivity Network agreed when President Xi visited Kathmandu in October 2019, could have sizeable, although much reduced, economic benefits. Nepal should, therefore, take actions to diversify its trade by making the Protocol to the Agreement on trade and transit signed in April 2019 effective as soon as possible and also by seeking financing for viable infrastructure projects from China.How has the BRI been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, will it ultimately fizzle out?The BRI has been adversely affected by the pandemic because with massive lockdowns and border restrictions, the physical dimension of the BRI ground to a halt. China, therefore, started to focus instead on building the Health Silk Road (manufacturing and distributing PPEs and ventilators) and the Digital Silk Road (mainly for contact tracing and e-commerce). As the pandemic situation improves, China will surely restart the Physical BRI.Exports of many BRI countries also suffered because of the pandemic, and they are facing difficulties in servicing their debt to China. Beijing is helping these countries restructure their debt including forgiving of part their debt obligations. So, the BRI is not about to collapse.China will not let that happen because this project, labelled as the ‘project of the century’ by many, marks China’s re-emergence in the global scene and its eventual ascent to be the number one economy in the world.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171156/636bdc329c7e80680e080302jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="602">

“China’s BRI will ride out the pandemic”

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171152/636bdb389c7e80680e0802b0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1250" height="1145"/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>In 2017, Nepal held its first local election after two decades. A generation of Nepalis had grown up without any experience of electing mayors or ward chairs. Bureaucrats were appointed to municipalities.Those were not just any local elections, they were the first under a federal structure. Hopes were high, and expectations higher. But how to make fiscal federalism work, and particularly municipal financing? What has been the experience of the past two years?There are two schools of thought about how municipalities should fund themselves. The first is that they have limited resources to invest in socio-economic development, and even added fiscal transfers from the federal and provincial governments on top of local revenues, are not enough for infrastructure and service delivery.The second is that local governments are unable to use available resources due to lack of technical and financial capacity, and that financial deficit is irrelevant when local governments are not even able to spend their allotted budget.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/nationally-local,3705">Nationally local</a>, EditorialWhile both these narratives ring true, the challenges are not faced in isolation and are cyclical in nature -- they feed into each other. The lack of capacity of local governments has led to underutilisation of funds available through the market and the federal government. Administrative and policy restraints set by the federal government also limits local governments’ access to finance.However, lack of spending capacity or lack of financing is not a challenge unique to local governments.  It is in fact part and parcel, a hereditary defect passed on from Kathmandu to rest of the country.Under the federal structure, significant power has been devolved to local governments than previously imagined. However, the expenditure responsibilities of local governments do not match their ability to generate revenues -- their power to govern through constitutional mandate has been restricted by their financial ability to govern.The revenue municipalities raise from taxes and levies is insufficient to cover operational expenses, let alone finance infrastructure or service delivery. Local governments are criticised for bloated operational expenses, but while this may be  justified, municipalities will still not be able to finance big ticket infrastructure and service delivery projects with merely internally generated revenues.Local governments therefore have fewer avenues to raise funds. To decrease their finance deficit, they can either steal, beg, or borrow to meet their requirements. In the crudest sense, local governments can either raise taxes, or utilise federal government transfers, or borrow from banks.<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Analysis/how-decentralised-is-federalism,776">How decentralised is federalism?</a>, Kiran NepalAn obvious mechanism to increase the funding base of municipalities is to increase their own source revenue generated through property taxes and business registrations, among others. However, municipalities already have a smaller tax base which restricts their revenue-generation capacity. They also cannot increase tax rates twice within their 5-year term limit, as it would be politically unpopular. The other mechanisms to access finance are largely dependent on local governments’ ability to raise revenue locally.Another option is to use the four intergovernmental transfers (grants)provided by the federal government. Fiscal equalisation grants disbursed to local governments is generally inadequate to cover municipal expenses which drives local governments turn to conditional grants.However, this reliance on conditional grants can only support piecemeal projects that do not always meet local needs and priorities. With Covid-19, the ability of the federal government to generate revenue have been hit, and subsequently, transfers to local governments.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/local-governments-lack-resources-to-tackle-covid-19/">Local governments lack resources to tackle Covid-19</a>, Nepali TimesLocal governments can also take internal loans through Nepal’s banksand financial institutions to cover their deficit. As of this fiscal year, municipalities can borrow up to 12% (a two-percentage point increase from last fiscal) of its revenue and revenue distribution from the federal and provincial governments.For instance, a larger municipality like Bharatpur could borrow up to Rs130 million in internal loans in the last fiscal year. Smaller municipalities like Birendranagar and Damak could borrow only up to Rs50 million. The minor increase in the debt ceiling does not increase their borrowing limit significantly. Considering the infrastructure and services delivery needs of growing urban centres that requires billions in investment, this amount seems grossly inadequate.There are regulatory and institutional restraints and reluctance to empower local governments to finance their capital deficits. However, the lack of technical capacity of  local governments contributes equally to this problem. Nowhere is this more obvious than in their inability to spend their annual budgets.This is also evident in the underutilisation of some of their federal grants, mostly because applying for these grants require project planning skills that are absent at the local level. Lack of capacity to plan, execute and monitor large scale projects is fuelling their inability to proactively seek federal grants to increase the revenue.This limitation has been amplified due to restrictive banking and financial practices in Nepal. Financial institutions are inclined to provide collateral backed lending, which allows banks to sell the land (commonly used as collateral) if a project fails to deliver.However, financing institutions are reluctant to lend to municipalities as municipal land cannot be used as collateral. While non-collateral based lending is an alternative, they are rare and limited to projects with guaranteed revenue streams such as hydropower projects with signed Power Purchasing Agreements with Nepal Electricity Authority.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/federalism-rule-of-law-and-the-judiciary/">Federalism, rule of law and judiciary</a>, George Varughese and Iain PayneThese are not just structural challenges, municipalities also face a crisis of confidence. Most municipalities are averse to borrowing and have not utilised the 12% internal borrowing threshold. Current borrowing, on average, comprises only 0.85% of municipal total revenue. Several municipalities say that despite their growing financial needs, they are less likely to take internal loans. Even if they do borrow, loans are used to manage working capital deficits rather than to finance municipal projects.In absence of long-term vision and prior plans, costly projects that may exceed the allotted fiscal transfers are not included within municipal plans and budget. Plans are limited to short to medium term projects and larger infrastructure or service delivery improvements which could potentially increase local governments revenues are ignored. The crux of the matter is, rather than municipal needs informing the budget, fiscal transfers dictate policy priorities of local governments.Local governments are locked in this vicious cycle. The federal government’s reluctance to ease up its fiscal hold on municipal finances constricts their capacity to deliver on their constitutional responsibilities. In parallel, limited institutional capacity of municipalities to deliver on their budget drives the federal government to maintain its regulatory and administrative hold.These constraints subsequently limit municipalities access to adequate finance. Unless this cycle is broken, local governments, much to our disappointment will only end up delivering short sighted piecemeal projects.The effectiveness of federalism rests on enabling municipalities and the leadership to identify, create, plan, and implement sustainable long-term projects. Despite the authority provided by the Constitution to local governments, their heavy reliance on fiscal transfers and inability to seek internal loans as an alternative for financing projects weakens their autonomy and governing power.After all, adequate fiscal autonomy is a key tenet of effective decentralisation which should not be undermined by poorly designed federal controls.Read also:<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/government-to-governance-editorial,4200">Government to governance</a>, Editorial <img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171152/636bdb3b9c7e80680e0802b1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="93" height="111"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171152/636bdb3c9c7e80680e0802b2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="76" height="114">Anna S Gautam and Nishu Baral are analysts with Infrastructure Development and Financial Sustainability project supported by The Asia Foundation at VRock and Company.

To beg, borrow or steal?

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141140/636bade89c7e80680e077fbdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1496" height="1146"/><figcaption>Min Bajracharya’s iconic photograph of Durga Thapa, 22, as she leapt up during a victory rally on 9 April 1990 to shout “Long live democracy!” All photos: MIN RATNA BAJRACHARYA</figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/one-moment-30-years-ago-today/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">People’s Movement in 1990</a> erupted because for three decades of partylessness, Nepalis could not let off steam and socio-political pressure had been building up.We got a constitutional monarchy, the parties were unbanned, the mass media was unshackled. And soon enough, we started using our newfound freedoms to complain about the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-from-royal-to-republic,3736" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">king and queen</a>. When the Maoists took the country to war, we complained about the violence.After the ceasefire of 2006, we were not happy about the restoration of peace – we started complaining about the political transition. Our constant moaning and groaning probably prolonged that transition.Then the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">earthquake struck in 2015</a>, and even as the aftershocks rocked us, we whined about the relief being poorly distributed, and the slow pace of reconstruction. We then had the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Indian blockade</a> to complain about. And as soon as the 2017 election was over, we started criticising the very leaders we had just elected to power.We were about to run out of things to complain about when there was the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-new-normal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">COVID-19 pandemic</a>, and we could complain about <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/reduce-harm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the lockdown</a> and the corruption in the procurement of medical supplies and the government’s general incompetence.It is human nature. Like most people around the world, Nepalis are never happy with the state of affairs. In fact, we do not score very high in the Happiness Index. That itself is a positive thing because it means we know there is plenty of room for improvement. Things can always be better. That is the whole idea behind the need to see the world as half full.Remember the days when there were 16 hour power cuts every day? <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/an-electric-shock-to-nepals-energy-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Now that there is surplus power</a>, we are complaining that the electricity we generate is going waste. What to do with it? Where to sell it?There was a time in the 1980s when the proponents of the Himalayan Degradation Theory predicted that Nepal would be a desert by the turn of the century. Here we are four decades later, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal has doubled forest cover</a>. We have almost a quarter of our area designated as national parks, and 15% of Nepal is covered in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">community-managed forests</a>.Enrollment in school is nearly 100%, infant and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/who-will-save-nepals-poor-new-mothers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">maternal mortality</a> have seen dramatic reductions. Absolute poverty has been halved in 25 years. The education we got and the remittance economy has exposed many Nepalis to jobs all around the world, and the quality of life for many have improved with the money sent home.Yet we complain that our youth are away. But that is also good because the end goal should be to create jobs for them at home.There are many products in the market that require energy to produce. If Nepal is to select a few of these and manufacture them near our many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hydropower</a> plants, we could become productive and competitive.In Birganj, for example, there are truck loads of metal sheets coming in from India. They are rolled into pipes and poles, and sent back out. This is the value added for Nepal’s abundant, clean, reliable energy.Entrepreneurs will begin to look for energy production sites where goods can also be produced. We will then see how education will be valued in these areas because it means jobs at the local level. We will no longer have the debate about exporting energy, and sending Nepali youth abroad to prop up the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/remit-for-remittances/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">remittance based economy</a>. Local agriculture will have a local market. Nepalis will also understand the true meaning of Value Added Tax.We can use spilled hydropower at night to pump water for to irrigate farms and boost food production, and during the day use the water to generate power. This is the chance for an entrepreneur to set up a factory to manufacture rice cookers and electric kettles so we <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reduce our reliance on imported LPG</a>.Nepal’s poverty related problems can be solved with political will. Nepal’s problems are simple and so are their solutions. Unfortunately, we like to complicate things so we can seek complicated solutions. It is almost as if we want to remain poor so we keep getting grants for poverty alleviation, so our experts and consultants have jobs. It is precisely because we have only complained and not implemented solutions over the past seven decades that we would rather export manpower than value-added good and services.Historically we have always described Nepal with what we do not have. For example, we do not have access to the sea. Or the terrain is not easy. These were always top reasons given for why we remain poor, rather than look at poor governance and mediocre leadership.More and more Nepalis now live in comfortable homes, drive fancy cars, send their children to the best schools. And yet we complain. Human progress is about not being content and wanting things to improve. There is so much to do as we move ahead whether you see the glass half empty, or half full. It is time to take the lead and move ahead.Anil Chitrakar is President of Siddharthinc. This is his last written column, he will now be hosting a fortnightly Anil’s Walkabout video program on the Nepali Times YouTube channel.

Anil Chitrakar

Stop complaining, start contributing

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022112916110/63861ea79c7e80680e0ccddajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="799" height="536"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>There have been few days without rain this April and May in Kathmandu. That means more disease for Kathmandu. Not COVID-19, but the virus we used to talk about -- last year's scary unknown disease, dengue.The year 2019 saw Nepal's worst ever outbreak of dengue, with 15,000 people infected, many times the previous high. Dengue was particularly bad in the Kathmandu Valley. At least six people died.The medical journal The Lancet has warned that Kathmandu could see a dengue ‘explosion’ because it has become ‘an ideal breeding ground’ for the mosquito that carries dengue -- the notorious Aedes aegypti. Already in 2020, four cases have been reported in Kathmandu, and four in Lalitpur.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Big story of smallpox in Nepal</a>, Tom Robertson<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/viruses-past-present-and-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Viruses past, present and future</a>, Tom RobertsonDengue spiked in 2019 with outbreaks around the developing world. In recent years, Delhi, Dhaka, Ho Chi Minh City, Senegal and Singapore have faced bad outbreaks. A dengue outbreak in Delhi in 2015 inundated hospitals and clinics across the city.Dengue likes warm humid conditions. Before corona, dengue was the world's fastest growing dangerous virus, increasing four-fold in just over a decade. Two of every five people around the world, nearly 3 billion people, live in dengue risk areas where it is a leading cause of illness. Each year approximately 100 million people contract the disease, and over 20,000 die.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022112916110/63861eaa9c7e80680e0ccddbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="961" height="540"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Like malaria, dengue is actually several different diseases that we give a single name. There are four dengue viruses: Dengue 1, 2, 3, and 4. A person can catch each one, and get sick as many as four times.A first infection generally brings only mild flu symptoms, if any at all. But a second infection can cause ‘severe dengue’ with plasma leakage, bleeding, and shock. This can kill. No treatment exists for dengue, but generally symptoms can be managed.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-health-emergency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate health emergency</a>, Sonia Awale<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mosquitoes move up mountains as the earth warms</a>, Sonia AwaleDengue's main mosquito host, Aedes aegypti, is no ordinary mosquito. In a species known for death and deviousness, it has few rivals. Not many mosquitoes have so successfully defied human efforts at control, including in recent decades.Long before dengue, Aedes aegypti carried a far deadlier disease: yellow fever. During the 16th and 17th, slave ships brought yellow fever carrying A. aegypti from Africa to the Americas, devastating indigenous populations and reshaping the region's balance of power. In the early twentieth century, the A. aegypti -- yellow fever combination almost blocked the construction of the Panama Canal.Most wildlife avoid humans. Not A. aegypti. It loves us, particularly the ecological disorder we often create. The more humans, the more disturbed ecosystems, the more A. aegypti. Cities, especially disorganised cities, create ideal habitat: lots of standing water for breeding and lots of humans for feeding.Dengue's other mosquito carrier is A. albopictus.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022112916110/63861eac9c7e80680e0ccddcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="463"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022112916110/63861eaf9c7e80680e0ccdddjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="635"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Lancet points to dengue's major causes: climate change, relentless and haphazard urbanisation, brisk trade and transit from dengue-infested areas, and poor health infrastructure. As Kathmandu grows and gets more connected to other parts of Asia, dengue spreads.Climate change has been overrated as a cause. Warming temperatures can extend the range of Aedes carriers but other causes deserve more attention. ‘Last summer’s explosion of dengue in Kathmandu Valley was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590920172779000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHqCreNEFDji4GDyS_wUW1JkpUOGA">blamed on climate change</a>,’ the Nepali Times recently noted, ‘but it was actually a perfect storm of crowded and squalid living conditions, poor drainage, greater mobility of people, and a particularly wet monsoon.’The real problem is disorganised urbanisation. The A. aegypti carrier thrives in small collections of clean water in flower pots, old car and truck tyres, uncovered water containers, and even puddles. It bites people early morning and at dusk.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-is-a-microcosm-of-all-of-the-changes-in-world-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">"Nepal is a microcosm of all of the changes in world health"</a><a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ke-garne-attitude-kills-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">K garne attitude kills people</a>, Laxmi BasnetNepal, like much of the developing world, has witnessed dramatic and disorderly urban growth in recent years, much in the lowlands along highways. ‘Nepal's Tarai," Mukesh Pokhrel recently wrote also in this newspaper, "is turning into one endless elongated metropolis.’Kathmandu itself grew four-fold between 1980 and 2010, and is one of the fastest growing cities in one of the world's fastest urbanising regions.'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590920172779000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHqCreNEFDji4GDyS_wUW1JkpUOGA">Cities like Kathmandu are perfect breeding grounds</a> for the Aedes mosquito,' says Jeremy Farrar of the Wellcome Trust in an interview with this paper. 'Kathmandu’s climate is changing, the city is growing exponentially in a haphazard way and the mosquito loves highly dense populations of people.'<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/east-west-city/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">East-West City</a>, Mukesh Pokhrel<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19301#.XtI_7y2B3-Y" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dengue fever</a>, Buddha BasnyatThe Lancet highlights what might happen in a dengue explosion in Kathmandu. ‘A tug-of-war might occur between the worried well and the truly sick,’ it says. ‘Hospitals might be overwhelmed and many needy patients with other diseases could be turned away.’Doctors inexperienced with the disease pose a particular worry. They could misunderstand its dynamics and cause unnecessary deaths by over-treating with unneeded antibiotics, transfusions, and excessive intravenous fluids. This has happened elsewhere.The dengue-carrying Aedes aegypti mosquito is difficult to control. Brazil eradicated it twice, in the 1950s and in the 1970s, and twice it returned. Several factors explain why: a lack of sustained careful epidemiological surveillance, insecticide resistance, the high costs of materials and wages, insufficient community participation and coordination with the health sector, and, crucially, the spread of haphazard urban development. Narrow control programs inevitably run into trouble.The World Health Organisation (WHO) stresses both micro and macro efforts to fight dengue. Individual families can put tight lids on water containers. They can eliminate breeding spots such as empty cans, bottles, and tires. It also says community engagement and building country capacity for environmental management and disease surveillance is important.“Locally adapted vector control measures such as household water storage management and, more importantly, engaging individuals and communities to manage their immediate environment are essential to controlling the spread of the disease,” says Raman Velayudhan, head of WHO’s Vector and Ecology Management Unit.School-based awareness programs, The Lancet authors noted, can help block dengue's spread. ‘Students are good learners and can be taught to effectively use repellents and mosquito nets and get rid of water collections near their homes and schools; students will then spread this information to their parents.’ Several countries have implemented successful school programs.Historian Frank Snowden sums it up: "Dengue takes full advantage of societal neglect and the absence or cessation of vector control programs."Tom Robertson, Ph D, is an environmental historian who writes about the history of malaria in Nepal. And just wrote a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590920172779000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFk193f6QnfjiWqivawrVZt2FPA4A">five-part series on smallpox</a> for Nepali Times as part of his History of Disease column.

Tom Robertson

The dangers of the dengue virus

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022112911110/6385d8509c7e80680e0cc75cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1604" height="1128"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>A country of 30 million is not small. A country that cannot spend 70% of its development budget is not cash poor.Nepal is big enough to need systems in place and use them to manage the country. It cannot muddle through on ad hocism, and especially during a crisis like the one we are going through now.As we begin to emerge hopefully soon from the impact of the lockdown, we must shed the practices and habits that have characterised governance in Nepal: the attitudes of ke garne, afno manche, bholi, chali halchha.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ke-garne-attitude-kills-people/">Ke garne attitude kills people</a>, Laxmi BasnetMeritocracy will have to replace nepotism, goal-orientation has to replace fatalism, and we have to do yesterday what could have been done tomorrow if anything is going to change for the better in Nepal. If Nepal does not get remittances from those employed abroad in the post-COVID-19 era, how will we pay for the country’s fossil fuel imports? We need to think systems.No matter who comes to power, there is an underlying belief that being in power means the freedom to make ad hoc decisions. The god kings and oligarchs ruled made decisions on a whim, and those bad habits seem to have been inherited by our federal, republican democratic strongmen.Once in power, they do not like to put in systems because that will mean decisions have to be consultative, accountable and transparent. The problem with making ad hoc decisions is that they may offer short term benefits, but you do get into trouble at some point or other in future. How many times can you use the excuse that you did not know what was going on?In a country with seven provincial and 753 locally elected governments, systems have to be in place if people are to feel the impact of Nepal’s political evolution over the last seven decades – after all what were those changes for if not to improve governance, service delivery and spur development?<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/thinking-out-of-the-box-to-rescue-nepal/">Thinking out of the box to rescue Nepal</a>, Prem Jung ThapaThe COVID-19 crisis is a watershed moment. It offers Nepal a unique chance to digitise government services that will do away with ad hocism and corruption that comes from human to human contact. You cannot grease a palm if it is virtual, and wrongdoers leave digital footprints.Making transactions cashless and physical distancing could be the best ways to fight corruption in Nepal. If we can introduce contact tracing and ensure it is meticulously enforced, we could make fighting crime and corruption very useful by-products of this pandemic.The global pandemic has offered Nepal and the whole world a chance to re-imagine and re-build the health sector. The lockdown was meant to be a strategy to buy time for the government, health professionals and related businesses to ramp up capacity and ability to respond. These include everything from the manufacture and distribution of masks and PPE to developing tests and vaccines.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-accidental-leaders/">Nepal's accidental leaders</a>, Anil ChitrakarIn Nepal, the pandemic has felt more like a paid holiday for many. There was no attempt by the government, development partners or professionals to convince and bring the sectors together to use this opportunity for the future. Health for all, insurance, research and development, supply chain management, trainings, up gradation of hospitals and health facilities, formalising pharmacies ... so much could have been done. But it is still not too late.We have a whole generation of people who have grown up watching Hollywood movies where Superman and Wonder Woman track down the bad guys making lethal viruses, killing them and destroying their labs in the nick of time. What we have not seen is a movie which picks up after the virus has been contained, and society has to chart a new path of revival, learning from the mistakes of the past.Watching a movie passively knowing that there will be a happy ending is one thing, but today we are individually all players in the unfolding plot and ‘I’ could very well be the next victim, or hero. This reality show is as real as it gets. Lives and livelihoods are being lost, and the virus is quick to pounce when it detects weak leadership, denial, or a lack of systems.We in Nepal must use this opportunity to address inequality and discrimination. It is a chance to clean up Mt Everest, dredge Phewa Lake, prevent sewage from flowing into the Bagmati, repair trails and trail bridges, upgrade the seven major monument zones in the Kathmandu Valley, Janakpur and Lumbini.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-chance-to-green-its-budget/">Nepal's chance to green its budget</a>, Kaustubh DhitalCities across Nepal need to create dedicated sidewalks for <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18714#.Xs8-4i8w0Wp" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D18714%23.Xs8-4i8w0Wp&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590728839126000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHxlOT3jvY5ynKVoUN1rJGyvWJZKw">pedestrians and bicycle lanes</a>, make sure that Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandus-road-ahead-post-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandus-road-ahead-post-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590728839126000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFYtjsavcqI8-QRcuslUQKmLbdzqA">transport system moves to clean hydroelectricity</a>. Nepal has no oil and we need to plan for energy security by reminding ourselves how many times <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%2520,2863&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590728839126000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGT0WYt8o-kUKJrkmksf9ccwh1uNQ">India has cut off our petroleum supply</a> in recent history.Once again, the government may not take the lead here because it does not have the systems in place. We have to collectively step up as a people. Time calls on us to move away from sound bites and photo ops. After all, the first fatality in Nepal attributed to COVID-19 required <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/bhaktapurs-covid-19-heroes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/bhaktapurs-covid-19-heroes/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590728839126000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFSx32lHPgjO5bbfDf_VkJwwITp_w">young volunteers from Bhaktapur</a> to quietly step up and enable the cremation.Anil Chitrakar is President of <a href="http://www.siddharthinc.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.siddharthinc.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590728839126000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFDqReoEgvFMX6gIWVxJPTwSpVSOg">Siddharthinc.</a>

development