After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

Sonia Awale

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Editorial

The magic 138

Besides being an election year in Nepal, 2026 is also the year of anniversaries. It is exactly 30 years since the Maoists launched their armed struggle on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/13-february">13 February 1996</a>, and it was on 27 April 2006 that the ceasefire came into effect after a month of massive pro-democracy protests.
Alas, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/not-ever-again">three decades on</a>, the decade-long conflict that claimed 17,000 lives has been <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/ghosts-of-war">air brushed from our history</a>. For the survivors, and the families of those disappeared and killed, memories of loss and suffering are fading. The party that fought the war in Mao’s name has dropped it.
It is important on this day to remember not to forget that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3203">violent decade</a> -- so that it does not happen again, and so the youth movement that has led to this election will also not be in vain.
The 8 September 2025 rally, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-8-september-massacre">the massacre that followed</a>, and the nationwide mayhem and carnage the next day were largely a result of public anger boiling over. Nepalis had been let down repeatedly by rulers promising revolution in the name of the ‘people’: from the 1990 People’s Movement I, to the Maoist ‘People’s War’, and the 2006 People’s Movement II.
There are some positive residual effects of the insurgency. One-third of the Maoist militia was <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Nation-sibling-war-juna-rai,731">composed of women</a>, this empowered not just the female guerrillas themselves, but indirectly made a whole generation of young women aware of their rights.&nbsp;
The peace process itself resulted in the Maoists entering the democratic mainstream, and the induction of many of the guerrillas into the national army – a rare occurrence after a conflict.
The ceasefire was followed by an interim government, and the first elected <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-letter-and-spirit">Constituent Assembly</a> abolished the monarchy in 2008. Deadlock over the model of federalism meant a second election had to be held in 2013, and the new Constitution <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/by-the-way/new-constitution-should-adopt-inclusive-democracy-with-federalism-republicanism-secularism,538">finally promulgated in 2015</a>.&nbsp;
That statute was supposed to devolve political decision-making away from Kathmandu to autonomous provinces, improve inclusive representation of women and hitherto excluded castes and ethnicities at all three levels of government, ensure accountability and good governance to generate jobs and lift living standards.
There were seven governments in ten years after 2015, and tottering coalitions one after another failed to fulfil any of those provisions in the Constitution. There were subliminal gains in representation of women thanks to affirmative action, but as this election shows, women candidates are still used as proxies by patriarchal parties.&nbsp;
Since the two warring sides of the Maoist war both became the state, sharing power in dozens of coalition cabinets since 2006, they colluded to bury the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-unpunished-war-crimes">transitional justice process</a>.
The former supreme commander of the Maoists Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) has become prime minister three times in the last 20 years. He is contesting this election from Rukum East, where he marked the 30th anniversary of the start of armed struggle on Friday.
The word ‘Maoist’ has been erased from the Nepali Communist Party which Dahal formed with more than a dozen other smaller leftist outfits. His main rival, Janardan Sharma, quit the Maoists and is standing for elections in Rukum West.
Both former comrades are competing for the hearts and minds of people of this former base area from where the Maoists went on warpath on 13 February 1996 by attacking a police station in Athbiskot, and simultaneously on targets in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=7812">Holeri of Rolpa</a>, Sindhuli and Gorkha.
The former ideologue of the Maoist party, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/20-years-wasted-in-war,2850">Baburam Bhattarai</a>, was the architect of the revolution while Dahal was the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6369#.Y-XIii8w1KM">executor</a>. Bhattarai submitted a list of 40 demands to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-denouement">Sher Bahadur Deuba</a> (during his first tenure as prime minister in 1995) but did not wait for a reply before launching the armed struggle.
The Maoists felt that the constitutional monarchy after 1990 was too feudal, and a patronage-driven parliamentary system too slow to bring about change. Besides, the democratic parties were accused of using state security to prevent Maoist candidates from winning elections.
The Maoists followed Mao’s Red Book to the letter, attacking police stations, looting weapons and targeting local elected governments, eliminating ‘class enemies' with summary executions.&nbsp;
They destroyed telecommunication towers, highways, bridges and airfields in remote areas. Threats forced health posts, schools, post offices to be withdrawn from areas where people needed them the most. The country’s development was pushed back decades.
Nepal in the early 1990s was ripe for revolution. There was inequality, social injustice, exclusion, and the political parties in Kathmandu were too busy squabbling to do their job. The Maoists wanted an end to the monarchy, but in 2001 the monarchy imploded with the royal massacre.
ABSOLUTE POWER
King Gyanendra succeeded his <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=8338">murdered brother</a> to the throne, and took the country back to absolute rule with a military-backed coup in 2005. Within a year, street protests forced him to step aside. And by 2008, it was too late to save the monarchy.
We can look back as far as we want to the roots of the Maoist conflict. It can be blamed on elected leaders post-1990 who abandoned the people once in power, the 30 years of partyless Panchayat system that stifled dissent and let social pressures build up, or even 100 years of Rana rule.&nbsp;
It was the prolonged indifference on the part of successive rulers in Kathmandu that fed public discontent. These accumulated grievances were also the reason for the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-gen-z-protest-turns-deadly">September 2025 events</a>.&nbsp;
During China’s Cultural Revolution, Mao Zedong said: ‘The old has to be uprooted to be replaced with the new’, and that could almost be the anthem of the GenZ movement and this election.
The objective conditions that drove the Maoist insurgency 30 years ago are still evident today. And much will depend on the government(s) that will be formed after March.&nbsp;

Kunda Dixit

Remembering not to forget

Only a handful of people who witnessed the 1934 megaquake as children are still alive. And the memories of 2015 are fading fast.&nbsp;
We were shaken, but have not stirred into action. We have not even started preparing to be prepared for the inevitable, for it is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’.&nbsp;
Thursday 15 January was National Earthquake Safety Day commemorating the 1934 disaster that killed 10,000 people in Kathmandu Valley at a time when its population was barely 100,000.
Nepal is in an active seismic zone, and a really big one is overdue in the seismic gap in western Nepal where there has not been a megaquake for 500 years. The 7.8M quake in 2015 did not completely release the tectonic stress below Central Nepal.
An 8M+ earthquake epicentred in western Nepal will be even more violent than the 2015 one in Kathmandu and will be powerful enough to cause destruction across northern India as well.&nbsp;
We Nepalis are resilient, but we are also complacent and fatalistic. How else does one explain the unsafe and unplanned building construction in Kathmandu, Pokhara and other towns despite frequent reminders of what quakes can do?&nbsp;
Most designs are ad hoc and follow no engineering logic. Reinforced Cement Concrete (RCC) is now widespread across the country since such structures mostly withstood the 2015 event. But structural engineers say most concrete buildings are substandard, and can be death traps. Also, the country lacks equipment and training for search and rescue in cement houses.&nbsp;
FIRE HAZARD
If an earthquake struck Kathmandu on a windy winter evening, there is the added risk of fires from gas cylinders in collapsed buildings spreading across the densely packed city core. Fire trucks will not be able to reach those areas because the streets will be blocked.
Seismic risk is now amplified by climate breakdown. Nepal now needs to factor in the co-hazard of massive avalanches and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) triggered by future earthquakes. There are 41 potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the region, and 27 of them are in Tibet feeding rivers that flow into Nepal. A megaquake there could cause multiple simultaneous GLOFs.&nbsp;
If the 2015 earthquake had not happened on a Saturday, tens of thousands of children could have been killed in the 7,000 schools that were flattened. More than 2,500 government buildings came down, and would have killed and trapped many if it had not been a weekend.
Schools and health facilities retrofitted before the disaster were unscathed, and served as shelters for survivors. Chhatrapati Free Clinic (CFC) was reinforced three years before the earthquake for Rs5.2 million, and with support from National Society of Earthquake Technology (NSET), 800 community members were trained in search and rescue.
Bhuwaneswori Secondary School in Bhaktapur and Bal Bikas Secondary School in Kathmandu both survived 2015 because they had been retrofitted. Singha Darbar, the Supreme Court and the Department of Roads buildings were also made seismic resistant after 2015 quake, but the arson attacks on 9 September gutted them.
While many private residential homes built after 2015 continue to flout building codes, municipalities are now stricter. New schools and colleges, hospitals and high rises now have to meet stringent requirements for seismic resistance.
Nepal is a hotspot for many types of disasters — earthquakes, floods, droughts, glacial outbursts, wildfires. These are not ‘natural’ disasters, they are human induced. Earthquakes do not kill people, poorly-built buildings do. Climate breakdown is anthropogenic.&nbsp;
Waiting for a disaster to strike means we have waited too long. Search and rescue readiness are well and good, but much more important is preparedness — seismic resistance structures especially of public buildings, strict zoning to establish open spaces, pre-positioning supplies and simulated drills.
We do not know how much time we have before the next one. But it is not too late to start preparing. &nbsp;
Sonia Awale

Shaken, but not stirred

Four months ago, videos of Nepal’s rich, famous, and well-connected spread like wildfire on digital platforms. They were flaunting their lavish lifestyles while many Nepalis could not make enough to get by.&nbsp; This display of nepotistic privilege resonated in particular among the millions of Nepalis who are toiling overseas, or will soon have to migrate to provide for their families. What started out as a protest against #NepoKids and corruption snowballed into violence that brought down the government. The youth envisioned a future where they would not be compelled to leave a country where rulers offer nothing to them.&nbsp; Ironically, the arson and vandalism of international hotel brands, corporate houses and businessmen has dampened the investment climate which is driving more Nepalis abroad. The Labour Ministry has announced plans to make it easier for those affected by the protests to obtain overseas working permits. Even those who wanted to stay in Nepal might now find it easier and more prudent to leave. Over 200,000 Nepalis have obtained labour permits in the four months since the September unrest. Since 2011, 7.6 million Nepalis have officially gone to work overseas, according to the 2024 Nepal Labour Migration Report released by the Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security last month. Of them, 2.8 million have renewed their permits. The report highlights labour migration trends, governance, policies, and data for the fiscal years 2022/23 and 2023/24, and although a bit outdated, the figures give an idea of the scale and spread of Nepal’s migrant workers.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260108110136_4322a0fcff688dc506bef0e38fec7ae40dc9a2e73ed3e72ee671879c8d756868.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260108110136_4322a0fcff688dc506bef0e38fec7ae40dc9a2e73ed3e72ee671879c8d756868" data-rendition-name="original" width="1118" height="614" loading="lazy" alt="migration report"> </figure>  Some highlights: 954, 319 new labour approvals were issued in 2022/23 and 2023/24, 113,056 of which were obtained by women. Half of the total migrant workforce were between the ages of 25-34.&nbsp; Kosi and Madhes Provinces account for the highest share of labour approvals, while Karnali and Sudurpaschim have the lowest. Most of the migrant workers going to India were from those two far-western provinces. The report categorises migration by year, district, province, age, and sex. But it would have done well to disaggregate socio-economic status, caste and ethnicity, and geographical data.&nbsp; The report also highlights strides made towards ensuring better and fairer migration. Since 2023, labour permits are valid for the duration of the contract signed between workers and employers, as opposed to a fixed term of two years previously. Steps have been taken to ensure 'employers pay' with some destinations so that workers do not have to pay exorbitant recruitment fees. Nepal’s diplomatic missions have been mobilised to issue labour permits and better protection to undocumented workers. There have been efforts to provide better legal protection and compensation rights to overseas workers. Bilateral labour agreements have been signed with countries that offer relatively higher wages, and agreements have been proposed with 13 countries to extend opportunities to migrants in more eastern European countries, SAARC countries like the Maldives and higher-income nations like Austria and Luxembourg.&nbsp; In 2022, the Social Security Fund was extended to include Nepali migrant workers abroad. And while the report also includes Nepal's existing G2G agreements, the effectiveness of those deals also need to be discussed. Nepal' G2G partnership with the UK to send Nepali nurses to work there at zero cost, was expected to recruit 100 nurses, but only 41 nurses have obtained labour permits.&nbsp; Meanwhile, Nepal continues to maintain a G2G partnership with Israel, which is committing a genocide in Gaza, and where the security of Nepalis is at risk. Last year, 2,200 Nepalis went to work in Israel as caregivers — 60% of whom are women. &nbsp; Destination countries have also introduced new migration policies unfriendly to nations like Nepal. Late last year, Malaysia’s announcement of new criteria for selecting private recruiting agencies for migrant workers from countries including Nepal. And the nationwide jailbreak in September has not helped Nepal's case either. The UAE stopped issuing visas to Nepali workers for almost two months before allowing it recently, pending attested police reports. Even so, Nepal recorded remittance inflows of $4.88 billion in the first four months of this fiscal year. Nearly 28% of Nepal GDP equivalent comes from remittances, one of the highest proportion in the world that shows low level of domestic economic activity. Nepal’s leadership will have to reconcile with the fact that depending on remittance to hold up the economy is foolish. Even as Nepal tries to sign labour agreements, higher income nations are becoming less and less tolerant of migrants — even as they face labour shortages and invade developing nations at will.&nbsp; At the beginning of the report, Krishna Hari Pushkar, Secretary of the Labour Ministry, writes, ‘Our shared goal should be to ensure that migration is always a choice, not a necessity.’ But for Nepal and Nepalis, migration will be a compulsion for the foreseeable future.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260108110144_843ed024465b5cedc28b86331d7509973b2a6dd646349fd5d542074422e837e4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260108110144_843ed024465b5cedc28b86331d7509973b2a6dd646349fd5d542074422e837e4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="migration report"> </figure>

Still a compulsion, not a choice

2026 marks the 20th anniversary of the Comprehensive Peace Accord that ended the Maoist conflict, and 30 years since the rebels launched their armed struggle.
Yet, two decades after it ended, there is almost no collective national memorialisation of a conflict that ended up killing 17,000 Nepalis. More than 1,330 people are still listed as missing. The perpetrators of heinous war crimes walk free in broad daylight — some have even served as ministers in government.
The transitional justice process, which was a part of the 2006 peace accord, is in limbo. History text books do not mention the war, an entire generation has grown up with no recollection or knowledge of the violence.
The goals for which so many lives were lost are now covered in the dust of history. It is a long list of promises not kept, pledges not honoured, sacrifices forgotten. The 2015 federal republican Constitution was the war’s end-point. The monarchy was abolished, political devolution from Kathmandu to the seven provinces, and an inclusive, just society was promised.
But then it was Animal Farm all over again. Napoleon, Snowball and Squealer started resembling Farmer Jones until no one could tell them apart. Today, some ex-guerrillas still believe in the revolution, many have migrated to the Gulf or Malaysia, child soldiers now have children of their own, survivors and families of the victims struggle with their loss, but memories are fading. International support for human rights organisations to pursue justice is drying up.
Yet, many of the objective conditions for revolution are still present in Nepali society. Politics and party structures are more centralised than ever. Federalism did not replace feudalism. The Constitution stipulated quotas for women and marginalised groups, but parties found ways around them to favour relatives and cronies. Socio-economic inequities are wider than 30 years ago. Corruption became a given.
None of the promised revolutions since 1950 attained their ultimate aims, as Sudiksha Tuladhar’s analysis in this edition (page 9) concludes. The Shahs were not that much better than the Ranas, and acceded to popular demands for change only to dismantle democracy. Young Nepalis took to the streets in 1980, 1990 and 2006 in pro-democracy movements, but rulers regressed and perpetuated the status quo.
RIPE FOR REVOLUTION
From 1996-2006 the Nepali people were held hostage by a war fought in their name. The Maoists used the borrowed and ill-fitting ideology of ‘The People’s War’ waged by ‘The People’s Liberation Army’. The labels were tragically appropriate because it was the people who died and suffered.
Nepal had not seen armed conflict in its territory since the 1814-1816 Anglo-Nepal War. Since then, Nepalis have been fighting in other people's wars. But by the 1990s, Nepal was ripe for revolution because of the feudal ruling structure, the apathy and neglect of newly-elected parties that left millions of youth without jobs and opportunities. Public exasperation was building up.
Nepal went from absolute to constitutional monarchy, parliamentary democracy and even endured the royal-military coup of 2005. But it did not make the rulers more accountable, they were mostly preoccupied with personal or partisan greed and ambition.&nbsp;
The same pattern was repeated following the 2017 election, after which Nepal had five coalition governments in six years. Serial prime ministers played promiscuous politics and recycled themselves over and over again.&nbsp;
Again, all it needed was a spark. That came on 8 September 2025. The slogans and demands, the outrage and impatience of the GenZ protesters were nearly identical to the young students who marched to the palace gates in 1980, 1990 and 2006. Some of those students went on to join the parties they were affiliated with, and are now themselves in their 50s and 60s.
They were all angry and young once. They may no longer be young, but some of them are still angry. Ever since 1990, the political parties which could not get their act together to spur investment and create jobs decided to encourage outmigration of youth. Thus, the rulers exported outrage, while they themselves played musical chairs, oblivious to the fate of the country.
After every half-revolution the new dispensation has emulated the despots they replaced, or thrown the baby out with the bathwater. The danger with the run-up to the March election and beyond is that we will repeat that mistake. Not everything old is bad, not everything new is good.
As the old and the new battle it out, let us learn from the Maoist conflict so that in 2026, the new will not start resembling the old. &nbsp;
Kunda Dixit

Not ever again

For the first time in decades, Nepal’s political structure is on the cusp of a major transition as the monopoly of the legacy parties is being tested by emerging political forces.
Whatever the outcome of the 5 March elections, the age of the Oli-Deuba-Dahal triumvirate will have to struggle to stay relevant in the post-GenZ phase.&nbsp;
As Nepal’s milestone year 2025 came to a close, the three leaders are mounting a rearguard action to retain supremacy within their own parties, and in the wider polity for supremacy. But they do not realise that it is a lost cause — history has moved on.
GenZ youth were not behind the mayhem and arson of 9 September that brought down the UML-NC coalition, but the regime change that followed it bears their name. The new and alternative parties aim to carry their brand forward.
Another troika is emerging: that of RSP chair Rabi Lamichhane, Kulman Ghising of the Ujyalo Nepal Party and Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah. Talks among the three for some kind of electoral togetherness have sent tremors across the established parties.
Freshly released from prison on bail last week, Lamichhane was welcomed back to his party as the chair with open arms even though his reputation took a hit after he made a jailbreak during the September protest.&nbsp;
“People really want change, and any change will do,” notes public policy expert Ashutosh Tiwari. “It’s not that Kulman, Balen, and Rabi will present a superior alternative, it’s just that they will present an alternative, which, at this time, is more than enough—it is much, much better than having forever having Deuba, Oli and Prachanda in governance forever.”&nbsp;
Still, news of a potential partnership between the three must have come as a welcome new year message for Prime Minister Sushila Karki who has been under pressure from both GenZ factions and the UML-NC to put off elections for differing reasons.
Karki does not want anything to dim chances of polls, so it is looking unlikely that the Judicial Inquiry Commission formed to investigate the 8 September massacre and the destruction the next day will be naming names anytime soon.
Former PM K P Oli has shown no contrition for the state violence, and defied summons from the commission saying he would rather be shot than sit for cross-questioning.
The chances of the UML-NC strategy of reinstating the House and forming an all-party government is now looking slimmer, which is why they are now working on finalising the ticket list of candidates.
Some GenZ figures like Sudan Gurung also want the elections postponed (even if it means House reinstatement) perhaps because they need time to pull together their own party. But Gurung also seems inclined to support a partnership between Lamichhane, Shah, and Ghising.
Others like the GenZ Front and the GenZ Movement Alliance are for elections, while some youth have joined new alternative parties or are shopping for parties to join.
There is also wariness among some youth about the possible backing of the RSP for Balen Shah as a PM candidate. The RSP may feel it can piggyback on the mayor’s popularity and tempt him with a leadership role in case Lamichhane is barred from contesting.
Youth reservations are not unfounded. Any partnership between leaders like Lamichhane and Shah must not (just) be based on political opportunism, but a shared platform of good governance and service delivery.&nbsp;
They must put their egos aside and temper their populist, divisive rhetoric — exactly the kind of political culture that they have been trying to change.&nbsp;
The elephants in the room are Nepal’s two neighbours and the United States. The Chinese and American ambassadors have been recalled, and the Indian ambassador has medical issues. The Trump-Modi falling out could already be having an impact, as seen in the violence in Bangladesh, with Washington no longer regarding New Delhi as a regional hegemony.
Beijing appears especially wary of the interim government and the direction it is going. Aside from its suspicions of pro-Tibet antecedents of some GenZ figures, it has also taken umbrage at Chinese entities being dragged into the Pokhara airport payoff scandal.&nbsp;
New Delhi, meanwhile, has been cosying up to the Sushila Karki administration, throwing its weight behind the March polls. In 2026, a lot will depend on the next pro-Trump US ambassador in Kathmandu.
The September movement will have meant nothing if we elect the same people who have led Nepal to democratic decline over the last three decades. However, Nepali voters in March will not just be swayed by changing the structure of politics, but also its culture.&nbsp;
‘Nepal does not need to search for perfect leaders, it needs institutions capable of handling imperfect ones,’ wrote Alok K Bohara, at the University of New Mexico, in a recent blog post arguing that Nepal needs an ‘absorbent democracy’ with institutions designed to withstand governance failure without collapsing.&nbsp;
Bohara continued: ‘The task is to rally around a civic campaign to design institutional architecture that can absorb failure, constrain abuse, and correct deviation. Let the system take care of behavior, rather than hoping that behavior will take care of the system.’
&nbsp;Shristi Karki

70 days, and counting

Prime Minister Sushila Karki is under pressure from GenZ activists and families of the victims to go after officials in the previous government responsible for the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-8-september-massacre"> murders of 19 youth at Parliament on 8 September</a>. But prosecuting the perpetrators and putting them behind bars risks street protests from elements in the previous government.
Former Prime Minister K P Oli is not making it easy for his successor. He is smarting from his downfall and itching for revenge. He is flexing his muscles with rallies, and has unleashed the attack dogs. UML’s newly-formed ‘Youth Volunteer Force’ is led by former Maoist Pushparaj Shrestha, who is accused of multiple murders and kidnappings, and former Bhaktapur MP Mahesh Basnet has been making incendiary remarks on social media on behalf of his boss.
Oli is obviously using the threat of street protests as a deterrent: don’t come after me, or else. Prime Minister Karki cannot risk escalation, otherwise <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/march-to-5-march">elections </a>may have to be postponed, or worse, cancelled.&nbsp;
The UML’s partner in the deposed government, the Nepali Congress (NC), is also suffering post-traumatic stress from the shock of the GenZ uprising. Its leader Sher Bahadur Deuba had stepped down as party chief, but has had second thoughts, and seems to want to prove his astrologer right that he can be prime minister seven times. (He has clocked five so far.) Meanwhile, his NC party is imploding with its no-longer-young-turks demanding a party overhaul before elections.
The Maoists are no longer Maoists. Former guerrilla commander and three-time prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has joined up with seven smaller leftist parties to form the Nepali Communist Party by teaming up with two other superannuated former prime ministers, Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal. Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai has also shed his Maoist tag and leads a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/party-time">new party</a> (PSP) that vows to ‘uphold the demands of the GenZ’.
The long and short of all this is that Nepal’s legacy parties have not seen the writing on the wall, they have no idea how much public outrage there is against them even after the carnage and conflagration ten weeks ago. And after all this, they are behaving exactly like they did before, sidelining internal rivals within their party, treating politics as powerplay and not about accountability and better governance to lift living standards.
Even a little bit of enlightened self-interest would have allowed them to see how sticking to their guns and not handing over the party to a younger cohort would mean certain ignominious defeat in March. But being gerontocratic authoritarians, they still believe their vote banks are intact, and are betting on the GenZ fervour fading by March.
Twenty years ago in this same space, we wrote: ‘Our politicians are not satisfied with being top dog, they want to be only dog.’ Nothing has changed, history is on rewind in slow motion. To take the canine analogy further: maybe you cannot teach an old dog new tricks.
The best indication of this is the shameful<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/election-countdown-4-more-months"> lack of remorse from the former prime minister </a>down the chain of command for what happened starting at noon on 8 September. Even if he did not give the order to shoot, being the head of government he should have taken responsibility for the death of 19 young Nepalis outside Parliament. Resigning that afternoon may have saved the nation from the scale of death and destruction the following day.
The Judicial Commission of Inquiry headed by former justice Gauri Bahadur Karki has another month to submit his findings. K P Oli has said he is not going to any deposition, while his Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak has indicated he will if asked.&nbsp;
Much of the evidence for the killings, arson and looting are in the public domain. There are videos and photographs of the Special Task Force commandos who knelt, took careful aim, and fired at the protesters outside Parliament. Many of the arsonists and looters on 9 September posted selfies and videos on Tiktok and Facebook where they can be easily identified as Maoist, RPP and RSP supporters.
What has angered the GenZ is that while the Home Ministry has been arresting some of those who set fire to Singha Darbar and Parliament, it has not deemed it necessary to track down the shooters. Home Minister Om Aryal says he is waiting for the Judicial Commission report to act.
Last week’s Human Rights Watch (HRW) report, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/11/19/nepal-unlawful-use-of-force-during-gen-z-protest" target="_blank">Nepal: Unlawful Use of Force During ‘Gen Z’ Protest</a>, has a detailed timeline of what happened on the two days, corroborated with interviews with eye-witnesses. It found that the STF started shooting within five minutes of the curfew being announced, and most protesters did not hear any warnings. Some 34 protesters were detained inside Parliament, beaten and mentally tortured.
The wounded and dead all had high-velocity gunshot wounds on their heads, chests and abdomen. The arson and looting the following day appears to have been instigated by a mass SMS sent from a fake Myagdi account, after which Discord posts directed protesters to attack specific locations.
Many more questions need to be answered by the Judicial Commission: why did the Army not act sooner, who gave the actual orders to use lethal force with assault rifles, who attacked schools, hotels and businesses, who was behind the inter-party and intra-party attacks on the afternoon of 9 September?&nbsp;
Prime Minister Sushila Karki has to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/proper-polls-better-than-no-polls">tread a careful middle path</a> through this minefield till election day.
Kunda Dixit

Election vs escalation

If the violent clashes outside Simara airport on Wednesday is anything to go by, it means Prime Minister Sushila Karki will find it even more difficult to convince recalcitrant political parties like the UML to go for elections.
Being the two partners in the coalition government which was toppled in the GenZ protests two months ago, the UML and NC are still licking their wounds and do not see much prospect of garnering votes. The UML is also flexing its muscles, with its own show of youth force in order to intimidate the interim government and the Investigation Commission and not implicate its leader K P Oli in the 8 September massacre.
In Simara, protesters calling themselves GenZ were trying to prevent UML leaders from flying in for a political event and clashed with the party’s cadre at the airport to welcome them. All flights to the airport from Kathmandu were cancelled on Wednesday.
The Simara fracas comes at a time when the government is alert about the sensitive security situation. The pro-monarchy businessman Durga Prasai was arrested at midnight on Monday over his inflammatory remarks leading up to nationwide protests planned for 23 November. The UML has also planned demos on Saturday to call for restoration of Parliament.
All this sure to feed prevailing public doubt about the 5 March polls. Every act or suggestion of violence feeds into the anxiety. Even as GenZ protesters were massing at the gates of Simara airport on Wednesday, UML and NC delegates were meeting Prime Minister Karki in Kathmandu saying they would take part in polls only if safety and security can be guaranteed.
Those remarks are a bit rich. Neither their parties nor their leaders who were prime minister and home minister have expressed any remorse or taken responsibility for the massacre on 8 September. They should be thankful Nepal’s courts have not handed down a verdict like Bangladesh’s tribunal against deposed and exiled Sheikh Hasina.
Instead, the UML and NC are inviting further instability by undermining the interim government, and taking to the streets to demand Parliament be restored. This week’s Simara violence has bolstered their argument against the elections. 
But failure to hold elections is not an option for the interim government. Prime Minister Karki is fully committed, and said in an interview in Nagarik newspaper on Thursday: ‘The Nepali people are overwhelmingly for elections, so the parties will ultimately not say no to holding them. There is no question that the election won’t be held on time. I am committed to that goal and we have come a long way in preparing for it.’ 
But political parties must also be free to organise peaceful election rallies without intimidation, as should every Nepali citizen be free to attend them. The youth need to accept that despite all their past failings political parties are not going anywhere, and they should instead push for them to reform and strengthen internal democracy. 
What does not help are incendiary social media posts by populist persona in the GenZ calling for the resignation of Home Minister Om Aryal. Prime Minister Karki was installed by the GenZ but herself has expressed frustration about their contradictory demands. 
It is not just the election that needs to be free, fair and peaceful. Candidates, whether they are from old or new parties, or those contesting as independents must be allowed to campaign freely and engage with voters without inciting revenge and violence.
Nepalis overwhelmingly want to usher in fresh new actors, you do not need an election to feel that pulse. This is a chance for the serial prime ministers in the established parties to pass the baton to a new generation because voters are poised to convey that message through the ballot in March.
In the event that preparations are not complete or conditions are not right for polls in March, it can be postponed by up to two months if necessary. Proper polls are better than no polls.
Families of those killed and injured on 8 September as well as those who participated in the protests are right to demand that the ousted prime minister and home minister be held accountable to the full extent of the law for state brutality. 
These disgraced leaders have chosen contempt over contrition towards protesters and critics since September. They would do well to see the jubilation in Dhaka at the news of the sentencing of Sheikh Hasina for crimes against humanity. 
Shristi Karki

Proper polls better than no polls

In the aftermath of the GenZ protests last month, as new PM Sushila Karki chose the first members of her Council of Ministers, youth collectives urged that it reflect the country’s diversity by including women, youth and people from various ethnic and socio-cultural backgrounds.&nbsp;
It took another couple of weeks for Karki to include &nbsp;bureaucrat and public health expert Sangeeta Mishra as &nbsp;Health Minister in her next tranche of ministers. Almost immediately, people dug up a video of Mishra calling herself “Nepali, but a native Indian”.
She was telling it like it was: Mishra is a naturalised Nepali citizen. But there was outrage in the ultra-nationalistic cybersphere. Mishra’s name was withdrawn from the list of ministers, with government officials citing an ongoing investigation at the CIAA.&nbsp;
With her Cabinet still incomplete a month after taking office, Prime Minister Karki was preparing to induct GenZ as ministers. A leak in the media floated the names, one of which was of Tashi Lhazom, a climate activist and filmmaker from Humla’s Limi Valley.&nbsp;
Almost immediately, social media erupted with discriminatory, xenophobic and misogynistic epithets against her: that she supported a separatist movement, that she was a foreign agent, that her citizenship was disputed, that she did not ‘look’ or ‘speak’ like a Nepali.&nbsp;
Political figures like Gyanendra Shahi, a prominent voice calling for the restoration of a Hindu monarchy, added fuel to the fire by making bigoted and false remarks about her heritage.
The former Commissioner of the National Human Rights Commission, Mohna Ansari, wrote on social media that it was shameful to question Lhazom’s identity: ‘Ms Tashi Lhazom is as Nepali as you are. Our society’s ugliest face and biggest flaw is doubting our own. Real patriotism embraces diversity — fake nationalism must end.’
Ansari, a human rights lawyer and activist, has also often been subject to Islamophobic and derogatory comments on digital platforms. &nbsp;
In response, the Indigenous GenZ Collective released Lhazom’s Nepali citizenship certificate to debunk the mistruths spreading on digital as well as mainstream media.
What makes a Nepali? What does a Nepali look or sound like? Who is a Nepali?
‘Had my name been Tashi Poudel, Thapa, Bhattarai or Ghimire, this would not have happened,’ Lhazom said in an interview with Kantipur following an avalanche of bigotry against her. ‘They questioned me because I do not look Nepali, or speak Nepali like a Khas. Because it is not my mother tongue.’
It is an indictment of Nepali society that indigenous Nepalis have to present proof, at the slightest inconvenience of mostly the dominant groups, of being a citizen of this nation simply because they might not fit into an imagined idea of Nepali nationhood by virtue of physical appearance, speech, geography, or faith.
And while we celebrate the successes of Nepal-born naturalised foreign citizens (some now hold elected office in the US) we refuse to afford the same respect to naturalised Nepali citizens, and those born in Nepal to excluded groups, nor do we expect them to work in the national interest if they are given responsibility to govern. And women are singled out twice as much for scrutiny.
Then cyber Nepal went into a tizzy when videos appeared of a biker’s group clad in black t-shirts emblazoned with the acronym ‘TOB’ which was interpreted to stand for ‘Tibetan Original Blood’ and linked to the Free Tibet movement.
The accusations snowballed into disinformation, xenophobia, and even calls for violence against Nepalis of Tibetan heritage and the Tibetan community in Nepal.&nbsp;
In the aftermath of the September protest, the hope was that politics and the bureaucracy would finally be rid of orthodox political actors. But first, we as a nation need to collectively examine the biases and bigotry that exist in Nepal’s socio-cultural space.&nbsp;
Otherwise, Nepal’s multiculturalism will be limited to just words in the Constitution and political tokenism.
No one who is in government now or in future can be expected to be completely free of subjective opinions, ideology, affiliation to a cause, or prior activism. And such criticism falls disproportionately on activists, advocates, and members from underserved and underrepresented communities.&nbsp;
One cannot be apolitical and hope to participate in politics, and as we move forward to rebuild the system it must not just reflect diverse communities, but also celebrate diversity of thought and beliefs.&nbsp;
Resorting to ethnocentrism, racism and chauvinism with conspiracy theories and discriminatory dog-whistling about fellow citizens is a disservice to Nepali nationhood. It is Nepal’s diversity that makes us strong.&nbsp;
Shristi Karki

What makes a Nepali?

The meeting called by Prime Minister Sushila Karki at Baluwatar on 4 October was supposed to be about completing the interim cabinet with GenZ representatives. But it ended with factions putting up rival demands.
It is ironic that a movement that voted for Karki on Discord is itself marred by discord.
But such jostling was to be expected. This was an amorphous and leaderless group of young Nepalis that was suddenly elevated to fill a national power vacuum, and is now expected to redesign the country from scratch. &nbsp;
At least two camps have emerged within the youth groups. One is led by Sudan Gurung of Hami Nepal with Barsa Raut, Anil Baniya, Purshotam Yadav and Ojaswi Raj Thapa, while the second under Rakshya Bam has Pradeep Gyawali, Aditya Karn, Yujan Rajbhandari and Dheeraj Joshi.
Just like it was at Nepal Army Headquarters on 10 September, there is distrust and dissent within these disparate group. For the sake of stability, and in memory of the 72 who lost their lives last month, Nepalis want these groups to be more united in their stances. &nbsp;
Prime Minister Karki did not attend the Baluwatar meeting last week, wanting the GenZs to first work out their differences. Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal and Finance Minister Rameshore Khanal were present, and entreated the young delegates to cooperate.
Sudan Gurung has demanded the resignation of the Chief Justice and the head of the anti-graft body, the CIAA. However, some even within Gurung’s camp are said to want constitutional provisions to be respected, and do not agree with some of his eight demands.
Rakshya Bam accuses Gurung of trying to do away with the Constitution and issuing arbitrary statements on governance. Her group also issued a statement warning against any attempt to deviate from the values of democratic change.
The conflict between various GenZ groups has exposed the nature and limitations of street revolt, proving that it is always easier to destroy than to rebuild. A revolution can bring rapid and transformative change, but then comes the task of agreeing on new structures and processes — while dealing with the ego and ambition of the protagonists.
TIGHT-ROPE WALK
One year after a similar student-led uprising, Bangladesh is struggling to stabilise the system and preparing for elections while dealing with extremism and geopolitical fallout. Sri Lanka held elections and brought in a new youthful leader, but it has not been smooth sailing.
Prime Minister Karki’s caretaker government is on a tight-rope walk. Moving too fast on arresting the previous prime minister and investigating others for corruption risks igniting renewed street violence, but delaying justice will anger the impatient youth, who want immediate results.&nbsp;
The longer the uncertainty and instability lasts, the more likely it will be for radical forces to take advantage of the fluidity. The communal clashes in Birganj and Janakpur over Dasain, inspired by what is happening across the border, should be a wakeup call. Hate speech and ethnic slurs on social media could be incendiary if left unregulated.
The Prime Minister has said her foremost priority is to ensure free, fair and inclusive elections on 5 March — mindful that various forces are out to sabotage it for their own interests.
Amending the Constitution to meet GenZ demands may have to wait for polls next year, and real change that improves lives, creates jobs and makes the bureaucracy cleaner and more efficient will take longer.
But till then, the interim administration could deliver tangible benefits to people with do-able improvements like speeding up the driving license process, removing middlemen from all levels of the bureaucracy, expeditiously completing highway repairs, controlling food prices.
The youth want immediate course correction, given how the old political parties, politicians and bureaucracy had plundered the state for years. But idealism alone cannot make a state machinery function. Every decision during this sensitive transition must be taken without undermining previous gains.
Factional friction within the GenZ will allow the old leaders in the old parties to regroup and plot revenge. Meanwhile, the three main parties, which fuelled the youth and class rage with their corruption and reckless disregard for the public good for the past three decades, do not seem to have learnt their lessons.&nbsp;
Despite being disgraced, K P Oli of UML, Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress and Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre, are still not willing to retire. The tragic loss of life and the mayhem that followed does not seem to have opened their eyes to the writing on the wall. They are intent on blaming everyone but themselves.
The Election Commission has already set a deadline for party registration by 16 November. Some in the GenZs want provisions to vote for a directly elected executive head of the country by even changing the Constitution.
There is a lot of confusion about what exactly the mandate of the interim government is, what it can and cannot do. With the dissolution of Parliament, the interim government cannot amend the Constitution, its only mandate is to conduct elections to form a new government that would then work on amendments.&nbsp;
At most, it can pass ordinances but only for the peace and good governance of the country or when there is an immediate need to enact a law.
To make things murkier, Sudan Gurung in a widely-shared interview on Al Jazeera said that he would run for prime minister, and that he would not accept the old parties and their leaders even if they win the elections unless they completely reform their political stance. He is also willing to work with pro-monarchists if they are for the betterment of the country.
Dharan Mayor Harka Sampang has already registered a new party called Shram Sanskriti Party while the likes of Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah, Energy Minister Kulman Ghising and for RSP Sumana Shrestha are expected to follow another corporate backer for a new party.
All parties, including any new ones representing the youth, must learn from the failures of the newer alternatives such as Sajha, Bibeksheel and more recently RSP. Parties go nowhere without a clear ideology, organisation and a vision and pathway post-elections.
The interim government is made of most capable technocrats and a Prime Minister with zero tolerance for incompetence and who says she has no intention of continuing in the position a minute longer than necessary.&nbsp;
We now have to move beyond destruction to rebuilding, and not be distracted by discord.
Sonia Awale

Discordant Democracy

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

The magic 138

Remembering not to forget

Shaken, but not stirred

Still a compulsion, not a choice

Not ever again

70 days, and counting

Election vs escalation

Proper polls better than no polls

What makes a Nepali?

Discordant Democracy

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal Election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138