For a man who was preparing to be PM for so long, Jhala Nath Khanal has got off to a disappointing start. Fifty days after being elected, he doesn't have a full cabinet. The promised progress in the peace process is yet to be seen. He has not been able to build the broad-based consensus with NC and Madhesi parties that he will eventually need to make progress on constitutional issues. His rivals within the party may be quiet for now, but by not reaching out to them, he will end up strengthening the constituency in UML that fears that the party is about to be swallowed by the Maoists. And most importantly, one does not sense any urgency in the PMO about the grave political challenges the government will inevitably face.
Having said that, it would be a mistake to underestimate what this government, and the alliance, is capable of achieving if it musters the political will.
The first few weeks of government formation are always the most difficult. This is when positions are most rigid, leaders stake claims to ministerial portfolios, coalition partners have to be managed, and debts paid for past support. Remember how long it took Madhav Nepal to form a cabinet, and that was done in installments too. That is because politicians know that once the cabinet takes shape, it will be difficult to gain entry into the power structure and this is the moment to strike. A similar tussle can be witnessed within UML and the Maoists. MJF's decision was delayed because Upendra Yadav was working hard to ensure the party didn't split if they joined the government.
But the PM's real priorities must lie in political management and showing progress on the peace and constitution front. The Special Committee meeting on Wednesday was a positive step, with the secretariat being provided with human resources for monitoring purposes – though those at the forefront of throwing out UNMIN should reflect on who has benefitted the most through the virtual absence of monitoring since. On integration and rehabilitation, the key question remains: have the Maoists made a strategic decision to move ahead with the process or not? There are conflicting versions, but they appear more amenable to taking tangible steps regarding the re-grouping of combatants, which will potentially lock them into a process if it is accompanied by a broader deal on modalities and numbers.
The Maoists really have no excuses anymore, and obstructing progress while in power will erode their credibility drastically and not earn them much goodwill with combatants either. At the same time, there are many in NC who believe that the success of this alliance will marginalise them. This school, which has been traditionally skeptical of integration, will be tempted to veto any proposal on the table, and paint it in terms of Maoist 'state capture'. Unlike his president Sushil Koirala, who has no concept of give-and-take in politics, Ram Sharan Mahat – NC's key man on integration – is a smart man. He is a tough negotiator, but should recognise the costs of not reciprocating if the Maoists show willingness to move ahead. Integration into security forces is one model, but a mixed force where the Maoists do not have command and there are adequate checks could well be thought through and not necessarily dismissed just because it was in the
7-point deal.
There is a visible energy on the constitution-writing front. The sub-committee has made progress, especially on the judiciary and legislature. The Constitutional Committee has begun work on the state restructuring report, although a consensus will be difficult. There was suspicion that the Maoists want to promulgate a draft constitution in order to eliminate the role of the president in the transitional period and then consolidate power. But the sub-committee's decision this week to have the president continue in office until the next election as part of the transitional arrangements should allay those apprehensions. The Maoists are in a hurry, and are willing to come down from their stated positions, since Dahal knows demonstrated progress will make CA extension easier, and help him claim leadership of government post-28 May.
Obviously forces exist that will want to discredit this government. But as long as Dahal and Khanal work closely together, keep their ambitions in check, manage internal contradictions, work on integration and the constitution by taking NC on board, address Madhesi issues, and not act against India's security interests (which includes not behaving irresponsibly, for instance by showing black flags to the Indian envoy), these forces will not be able to destabilise the alliance. It has not been a good start, but all is not lost for the government yet.
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