One could argue, if we really wanted to put a positive spin on the whole thing, that the nation's future being decided in parliament is a good thing. At least we are not blowing each other up like we were doing till four years ago, and we are trying to decide who will rule this country based on a majority in the house. Stalling, double-crossing and back-stabbing, after all, are accepted norms of politics everywhere, not just in Nepal.

Still, most Nepalis are watching the shenanigans in the CA with growing dismay and apprehension. It was the leaders of two small parties, Chitra Bahadur KC and Hridesh Tripathi, whose words should have made everyone in the House on Wednesday hang their heads in shame. Or they would have if any of the politicians in the three big parties still had a capacity to feel shame anymore.

The two articulated the cynicism, apathy and outrage felt by a majority of Nepalis at the people they elected in 2008 to write a new constitution and work towards long-term peace. KC jabbed his finger down at the assembly and said: "All you have done is spend your time pulling each other down, all you are interested in is the chair, you have forgotten why you are here."

While he spread the blame across the three parties to appear even-handed, the Nepal Jana Morcha leader had a special message just for the Maoists. Your behaviour has brought the country to the verge of chaos, he said, you have infected the polity with your culture of violence and corruption, and you are pushing the nation towards fragmentation and possible annihilation with your proposal for ethnicity-based federalism.

The most recent Himalmedia nationwide public opinion poll conducted in April shows that KC has his finger on the pulse of the people. Most Nepalis said they would support the Maoists being in government because they don't trust the NC or UML to improve their lives, but also because they think leading a coalition government would force the comrades to 'tame' their wild ways. But the message is equally clear that they will only allow that to happen if the Maoists first abjure the systematic use of violence and intimidation

The more immediate question before the second round of voting on Friday afternoon is how to break the two-way checkmate that is preventing the NC and the Maoists from garnering the needed 301 votes. The Maoists can't form a government without the support of the 80 or so Madhesi MPs, while the NC will need both the Madhesis and the UML to hit three centuries.

While tectonic forces pull the UML apart, it is unlikely the party can agree to back a NC coalition without the danger of a split. The Maoists are trying to do just that, and woo away what they consider the 'progressive' wing of the UML. It is also highly unlikely that the bulk of the Madhesi parties would ever back the godless Maoists.

So the bottom line is what the Maoists and the NC can offer the fence-sitters by Friday noon in return for joining the government. Both are banking on the temptation of plum posts for both the UML and Madhesis being too much to resist. There is a strong possibility that neither Poudel nor Dahal will hit 301 on Friday, and the interim constitution is a bit vague on what happens after that.

May we make a suggestion? Have a rotational prime ministership that a group of four or five deputy prime ministers share till the constitution is written and the next election is held. It has worked in other countries where there have been similar stalemates.

But there is one surefire way to end this deadlock immediately and move ahead. That is for the Maoist party to make a credible, timebound commitment to agree to the conditions laid down by the other parties (and by the southern neighbour) on publicly renouncing violence, disbanding the YCL, returning seized property, etc. Doing that will remove the political obstacles to allow the Maoists to lead their own government.

If they want it bad enough, the conditions should be relatively easy to fulfill for the comrades. The only question then is whether the other parties will trust the Maoists because they have failed so often to deliver on their promises.

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Trial by media, CK LAL
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