A survey of key recent events is revealing.
There are increasing incidents of Maoist land-grabbing and forest-clearing in the Tarai to settle supporters from the mid-hills. The Maoists are in the process of announcing autonomous ethnicity/nationality based provinces. The NC has not yet submitted a common draft of its vision of federalism to the CA committee. The NA has been facing relentless international pressure to punish major violators of human rights, rather not reward them. And the PLA is organising a major sports jamboree to celebrate its ninth anniversary in a few months.
The Maoists can selectively cite instances and accuse the other side of being 'regressive reactionaries' bent on protecting the present state. The others can in turn point to the pattern of peace agreement violations by the Maoists and claim the former rebels are 'preparing for an urban insurrection' to establish a people's republic.
Both perspectives might be considered at least partially fair. What we are witnessing is a battle to determine the precise balance of power. Both sides feel they are stronger than the other. The non-Maoists feel confident with the army and India's support; the Maoists rely on their massive organisational structure and ability to cripple the state. Their respective constituencies are telling them not to compromise and instead prepare for a 'final confrontation'.
But there is another pattern to the recent incidents.
All of them essentially revolve around three broad issues - land, federalism, and the state of the security sector. Three years on from the CPA, there has been little progress on any of those fronts.
There are still demands for the return of confiscated property, while the Maoists continue to insist on the need for 'scientific' land reform. There has been broad acceptance of the decision to adopt a federal structure, but little concrete discussion on how ethnicity will be accommodated. Most worryingly, NA continues to be bloated and unreformed, and is increasingly restless about the restrictions on recruitment and arms supplies. Meanwhile, the PLA has become stronger and more cohesive with state funding, and is a distinct political voice within the Maoist structure.